1. "Stranger Than Paradise" by Sleeze Beez
2. "Fired Up" by Thunder
3. "Spit" by KISS
4. "American Woman" by Krokus
5. "Let It Go" by Loudness
6. "Kiss of Death" by Black 'N Blue
7. "Remember the Heroes" by Sammy Hagar
8. "Toast of the Town" by Mötley Crüe
9. "Don't Close Your Eyes" by Dokken
10. "You're Too Bad" by FireHouse
This year's NCAA Tournament brackets have been announced, and I think this will be another unpredictable NCAA Tournament. While there are a handful of top teams, every one of them has a flaw and is beatable, and there are about ten teams who I think could legitimately win it all. Or they could all lose before the end of the first weekend, which would destroy my brackets but bring me so much joy. I have already filled out 107 brackets, and I have zero confidence in any of them.
Here are a couple initial random thoughts and fun facts:
Anyway, as I do every year, here are a couple lists of five teams each in a few categories that you should consider when filling out your brackets. Expect there to be some contradictions, since that's the nature of predicting the NCAA Tournament. Teams are in seed order. So you don't think I'm entirely full of shit (or perhaps to prove that I am), I'll put in parentheses what I correctly predicted last years.
Teams with the best shot at winning it all (last year, I had Florida on this list):
1. Arizona (1-seed West). The Wildcats seem to be the team the most "experts" are picking to win it all, and with good reason. They're 32-2 and won the Big 12 regular season title outright by two games, then followed it up with a Big 12 Tournament title. They are one of the best rebounding teams in the country and score 86.1 points per game. If they can win it all, they would become the first team west of Lawrence, Kansas to win the NCAA Tournament since the Wildcats won in 1997.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 14-2
2. Florida (1-seed South). The defending champs have reloaded, and they're out-rebounding opponents by an astounding 14.5 boards. They have five guys averaging in double figures, and they don't rely too heavily on any one person. Can they join UCLA as the only other school to win back-to-back titles multiple times?
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 19-5
3. Michigan (1-seed Midwest). The Wolverines won the regular season Big Ten title by an astounding four games -- and that's with four other teams that have consistently been in the top ten (Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue). They rank in the top 20 in the country in various categories on both offense and defense: scoring (87.3 ppg, 10th), point differential (+18.3, 4th), FG percentage (50.7%, 8th), rebounding (40.2 rpg, 18th), assists (18.6 apg, 5th), blocks (6.0 bpg, 3rd), defensive FG percentage (38.0%, 2nd), and rebound differential (+8.9, 8th). They have a very good chance at ending the Big Ten's 26-year national title drought.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 15-3
4. Houston (2-seed South). With 28 wins, Kelvin Sampson's Cougars have won 27+ games eight times in the last nine years. As with last year's NCAA Tournament runner-up team, this year's Cougars are one of the best overall defensive teams in the country, first in the nation in opponents' field goals made per game (20.9), second in opponents' points per game (62.9 ppg), and 16th in opponents' field goal percentage (40.0%). They also protect the ball well, ranking first in fewest turnovers per game (8.5), and they're 12th in scoring differential (+14.2). All six of their losses were to NCAA Tournament teams (Arizona (twice), Iowa State, Kansas, Tennessee, and Texas Tech). And to top things off, assuming they advance to the second weekend, those games will be in Houston, so they'll have a significant home-court advantage in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 7-6
5. Iowa State (2-seed Midwest). The fact that I have three Big 12 teams out of my top five national championship contenders should tell you something about the strength of the Big 12 this year -- and certainly at the top of the league standings. They've been in the top ten since early December and got as high as No. 2. They average 81.8 points per game, shoot 49% from the field, shoot 38.7% from three-point range, average 17 assists per game, and outscore their opponents by an average of 16.6 points per game. On the defensive end, they only give up 65.1 points per game and average 9 steals per game. Don't be surprised if the Cyclones cut down the nets in Indy.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 7-6
Final Four sleepers (teams seeded 4 or higher) (last year, no team seeded 4 or higher went to the Final Four for the first time since 2009):
1. Arkansas (4-seed West). The Razorbacks have been ranked in the Top 15-20 for much of the year, and they are riding a five-game winning streak coming into the NCAA Tournament, fresh off their SEC Tournament title. Hate him or love him (I'm more the former), Coach Cal knows how to win in March. In the last five tournaments, the Razorbacks have gone to two Elite 8s and another three Sweet 16s. If they make it to the Sweet 16 to face Arizona, they have a chance to knock the Wildcats off, and there's no one else in the region they can't beat.3. Vanderbilt (5-seed South). The Commodores were another SEC team ranked in the Top 15-20 for most of the year and had their share of ups and downs in the gauntlet of the SEC. But they got it together in March and reeled off four straight wins -- including two over Tennessee and one over Florida -- before falling to Arkansas in the SEC Tournament title game. Vanderbilt has never made it past the Sweet 16, but this could be the year. If they make it past McNeese (which is no guarantee), then they would play either an inconsistent Nebraska team (see below in the next section) or 13-seed Troy. And if they get past the second round, their likely Sweet 16 opponent would be Florida, a team they dominated by 17 points in the SEC Tournament semifinals.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 11-6
4. BYU (6-seed West). The NCAA Tournament is often a platform for stars to shine and lead their team on an improbable run. BYU has a bona fide star in freshman phenom AJ Dybantsa, who leads the country in scoring (25.3 ppg) and throws in 6.7 rebounds per game and nearly 4 assists a game, all while shooting over 51% from the field. The Cougars are in the Top 25 in scoring, shoot almost 48% from the field as a team, and rebound the ball well. They've also gone through a gauntlet in the Big 12.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 8-8
5. Tennessee (6-seed Midwest). For whatever reason, I'm usually too high on Tennessee in March. Maybe it's because I like Rick Barnes. The Vols aren't quite as good as they were the last two years, when they went to the Elite 8, but they have a good mix of experience and talent. In their quadrant, they'd likely play Virginia in the second round (see below in the next section), and potentially Iowa State in the Sweet 16, which is winnable. After that, it would likely be Michigan, who, as Purdue proved this past Sunday, are not invincible.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 9-9
Teams seeded 4 or better who may not make it to the second weekend (last year, I had Iowa State and Wisconsin on this list, but did not have St. John's or Texas A&M on this list):
1. Duke (1-seed East). Duke is really good, but they will be without guard Caleb Foster for the rest of the season, and center Patrick Ngongba II will likely miss at least a couple NCAA Tournament games. Obviously, I don't think Siena is going to pose a threat to the Blue Devils, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if 8-seed Ohio State or 9-seed TCU pulls an upset in the second round, especially if Ngongba isn't back in the lineup.4. Kansas (4-seed East). Kansas always seems to be a go big or go home early type of team. They haven't made it out of the first weekend of the tournament since 2022, when they won the national title. Since winning the national title in 2008, Kansas has been a top four seed 15 times, and the Jayhawks lost to worse-seeded teams 11 of those 15 times. 13-seed Cal Baptist shouldn't be a problem, but you never know. Then if they get by the Lancers, Big East champ 5-seed St. John's or a pesky 12-seed Northern Iowa team await the Jayhawks.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 10-7
5. Nebraska (4-seed South). The Cornhuskers have never won an NCAA Tournament game, and they'll certainly feel that pressure, as expectations are as high in Lincoln as they've ever been for basketball. After starting the season 20-0, they went 6-6 to close out the regular season, including a 16-point loss to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. First round opponent 13-seed Troy -- which won both the Sun Belt regular season outright and the conference tournament -- can't be overlooked. And if Nebraska wins that, they'll get a second-round date with Vanderbilt or McNeese, either one of which could take down the Huskers.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 5-6
Teams seeded 12 or higher with the best chance of pulling an upset in the first round (last year, I had Colorado State and McNeese on this list, and those were the only two teams seeded 12 or higher that won a first-round game):
1. Akron (12-seed Midwest). Akron is still searching for its NCAA Tournament win, but this could be the year. The Zips' only two losses since the beginning of January have been to fellow NCAA Tournament teams Troy and Miami (OH), and they shoot the three very well. They play Texas Tech in the first round, and the Red Raiders have proven they can beat anyone in the country, but they are inconsistent, lost three in a row to end the regular season (including getting crushed by Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals), and are without their star forward JT Toppin, who is their leading scorer and rebounder. They're 3-3 since he was lost for the season to a torn ACL on February 17.2. High Point (12-seed West). In the Panthers' first trip to the NCAA Tournament last year, they put up a pretty damn good fight as a 13-seed against 4-seed Purdue before ultimately falling 75-63. They're even better this year, rolling through the Big South with only one loss and finishing the regular season 30-4. They haven't lost since mid January, and they average 90 points a game. On top of that, their first round opponent, Wisconsin, hasn't made it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament since 2017 -- and the Badgers have lost their first round game each of the last three times they were a 5-seed (in 2024 to James Madison, in 2019 to Oregon, and 2013 to Ole Miss).
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 1-0
3. McNeese (12-seed South). This is the third NCAA Tournament in a row that the Cowboys are a 12-seed. Two years ago, they got destroyed by 5-seed Gonzaga, but last year, they upset 5-seed Clemson in the first round for their first NCAA Tournament win ever. This year's team is just as dangerous, ending the season on a ten-game winning streak. They shoot well from three and force turnovers better than anyone else in the country, both good stats for an upset. Plus, they're playing Vanderbilt, which has advance to the second round only once in its last seven NCAA Tournament appearances (in 2012) and hasn't made it to the Sweet 16 since 2007.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 0-2
4. Northern Iowa (12-seed East). The Panthers were a surprise winner of the MVC Tournament as a 6-seed, but don't let that fool you. They lead the country in defensive points allowed (61.3 ppg), are 3rd in opponents' three-point percentage (28.5%), and are 26th in opponents' FG percentage (40.7%). Also, MVC teams seeded 10th or worse have won five first round games in the last ten NCAA Tournaments. Their opponent, St. John's, has won one NCAA Tournament game since 2000 and have been knocked out by double-digit seeds in four of their last six NCAA Tournaments.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 1-1
5. Hawaii (13-seed West). The Rainbow Warriors are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016, when they beat 4-seed Cal in the first round as a 13-seed. And the Big West champions have a pretty good track record when seeded 13th or better. Of the last five Big West champs to be seeded 13th or better, two have won their first round games -- 13-seed UC Irvine beat 4-seed Kansas State in 2019, and Hawaii's aforementioned win in 2016 -- and the other three lost by three or fewer points -- 12-seed UC San Diego in 2025 (lost to 5-seed Michigan 68-65), 12-seed UC Santa Barbara in 2021 (lost to 5-seed Creighton 63-62), and 13-seed UC Irvine in 2015 (lost to 4-seed Louisville 57-55).
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 0-0
Here we are, you sons of bitches (no offense to your mothers). We're at Selection Sunday. It's the fucking Ides of March, so here's your Vehicle. Enjoy a young Jim Peterik introducing you to his genius.
It was another day of close scores. Of the 21 Championship Week games yesterday, 12 were decided by 10 points or less, 8 were decided by 5 points or less, and two went into OT.
With several other 1-seeds going down in the last couple days, we're up to 15 1-seeds that have lost in this year's Championship Week: Belmont (MVC), Bethune-Cookman (SWAC), Central Arkansas (A-Sun), East Tennessee State (SoCon), Florida (SEC), Liberty (C-USA), Merrimack (MAAC), Miami (OH) (MAC), Navy (Patriot), Portland State (Big Sky), St. Louis (A-10), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), UC Irvine (Big West), UNC Wilmington (CAA), Utah Valley (WAC).
Following up on my comment from a couple days ago, this year's Championship Week continues to be far more unpredictable than last year, where all but five conference tournaments were won by 1-seeds or 2-seeds (17 1-seeds and 9 2-seeds won) -- while only three schools seeded four or lower won. By contrast, of the 26 conference tournaments that have already finished, five teams seed four or lower have won. Here are the number of each seeds that have won:
Today's song is David Bowie's glam rag "Rebel Rebel," in honor of 15-seed Ole Miss's win over 2-seed Alabama in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. On top of that, a few more bubble teams lost, and three of the top four seeds in the Big Ten Tournament went down.
Yesterday was another day filled with a lot of close games. Out of the 34 games yesterday, 22 were decided by ten points or less, 13 were decided by five points or less, and we had two overtime games, including one that went to triple overtime.
And today we have 11 conference championship games and another 10 semifinal games.
1. "Girls, Girls, Girls" by Mötley Crüe
2. "Voodoo Kiss" by Mr. Big
3. "In 'N' Out" by Van Halen
4. "Crossfire" by Scorpions
5. "Stay Hungry" by Twisted Sister
6. "Nobody Knows" by Roxy Blue
7. "Nice On Ice" by Kix
8. "The Great Misconceptions of Me" by W.A.S.P.
9. "Hide Your Heart" by KISS
10. "Strange Things" by Black 'N Blue
This is my 5000th (!) post on GMYH, and if it wasn't gonna be Hair Band Friday, I'm glad it was a March Madness post. In honor of this unholiest of milestones, today's song is Powerman 5000's "When Worlds Collide."
Yesterday was another disastrous one for many bubble teams, but I think the biggest news was previously unbeaten and MAC 1-seed Miami (OH)'s inexplicable loss to 8-seed UMass in the MAC Tournament quarterfinals. How the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee handles the RedHawks will be interesting, but with the number of bubble teams shitting the bed this week, it's quite possible the MAC is a two-bid league this year.
It was also a day filled with a lot of close games. Out of the 44 games yesterday, 28 were decided by ten points or less, 16 were decided by five points or less, and we had 3 overtime games.
With Miami (OH)'s loss, that means we're up to eleven 1-seeds that have lost in this year's Championship Week: Belmont (MVC), Bethune-Cookman (SWAC), Central Arkansas (A-Sun), East Tennessee State (SoCon), Liberty (C-USA), Merrimack (MAAC), Miami (OH) (MAC), Navy (Patriot), Portland State (Big Sky), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), UNC Wilmington (CAA). It should be a fun and competitive NIT.
And today, from tip off of the St. Louis/George Washington game in the A-10 Tournament quarterfinals at 11:30 a.m. ET to the end of the Mountain West semifinal between San Diego State and New Mexico, which is scheduled to tip at 11:59 p.m. ET, we have 34 conference tournament games over about 15 hours.
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