Wednesday, March 05, 2014

Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions

Last night, Michigan stomped on Illinois on Senior Night in Champaign to clinch the Wolverines' first outright Big Ten title since 1986 and their first ever #1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament.

Tonight, there are two Big Ten games on the slate, with Nebraska traveling to IU for Senior Night (6 p.m. Central; BTN).  It's kind of a must-win for both teams if either has a chance of making the NCAA Tournament, short of a miraculous run in the Big Ten Tournament.  A win for the Hoosiers would mean that they could be seeded no lower than 8th in the Big Ten Tournament.  Hold onto your hats for this one, IU fans:  if IU somehow wins its last two games, and Iowa, Nebraska, and Ohio State lose their remaining games (which is not entirely impossible, especially this year in the Big Ten), all four teams would be tied with a 9-9 record, and IU would be the 4-seed, with Iowa, OSU, and Nebraska falling in as the 5, 6, and 7 seeds, respectively.

After the IU/Nebraska game tonight, Purdue plays at Wisconsin (8 p.m. Central; BTN), in what would be a bloodbath, if Boilermakers actually bled something other than impacted feces, industrial effluence, and unending failure.  A Wisconsin win would mean that the Badgers could be seeded no lower than 3rd in the Big Ten Tournament and that Purdue could be seeded no better than 9th.

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining games, and my predictions.

1.  Michigan (14-3):  IU (W)
2.  Michigan State (11-5):  Iowa (W), at OSU (L)
3.  Wisconsin (11-5):  Purdue (W), Nebraska (W)
4.  Iowa (9-7):  at MSU (L), Illinois (W)
5.  Nebraska (9-7):  at IU (L), Wisconsin (L)
6.  Ohio State (9-8):  MSU (W)
7.  Indiana (7-9):  Nebraska (W), at Michigan (L)
8.  Minnesota (7-10):  PSU (W)
9.  Illinois (6-11):  at Iowa (L)
10.  Purdue (5-11):  at Wisconsin (L), Northwestern (W)
11.  Northwestern (5-11):  PSU (W), at Purdue (L)
12.  Penn State (5-11):  at Northwestern (L), at Minnesota (L)

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place and how the Big Ten Tournament will play out (all times are Central):

*1.  Michigan (15-3)
2.  Wisconsin (13-5)
3.  Michigan State (12-6)
4.  Iowa (10-8) (Iowa has tiebreaker over OSU based on 1-1 record vs. Michigan, while OSU has 0-1 record vs. Michigan)
5.  Ohio State (10-8)
6.  Nebraska (9-9)
7.  Minnesota (8-10) (Minnesota has tiebreaker over IU based on 1-0 head-to-head record)
8.  Indiana (8-10)
9.  Northwestern (6-12) (Northwestern will have tiebreaker over Purdue based on 1-1 record vs. Wisconsin, while Purdue will have 0-2 record vs. Wisconsin)
10.  Purdue (6-12)
11.  Illinois (6-12) (loses three-way tie with Northwestern and Purdue based on 0-2 record vs. other two teams, while Northwestern and Purdue will have 2-1 record vs. other two teams)
12.  Penn State (5-13)
* seed has been clinched

Here are my game-by-game predictions for the Big Ten Tournament, with the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Central.

Thursday March 13 – First Round
(8) Indiana vs. (9) Northwestern (11 a.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Indiana
(5) Ohio State vs. (12) Penn State (1:30 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Ohio State
(7) Minnesota vs. (10) Purdue (5:30 p.m., ESPN2).  Predicted winner:  Minnesota
(6) Nebraska vs. (11) Illinois (8 p.m., ESPN2).  Predicted winner:  Illinois

Friday March 14 - Quarterfinals
(1) Michigan vs. (8) Indiana (11 a.m., ESPN/EPSN2).  Predicted winner:  Indiana
(4) Iowa vs. (5) Ohio State (1:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN2).  Predicted winner:  Ohio State
(2) Wisconsin vs. (7) Minnesota (5:30 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Minnesota
(3) Michigan State vs. (11) Illinois (8 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Michigan State

Saturday March 15 - Semifinals
(8) Indiana vs. (5) Ohio State (12:40 p.m., CBS).  Predicted winner:  Indiana
(7) Minnesota vs. (3) Michigan State (3 p.m., CBS).  Predicted winner:  Michigan State

Sunday March 16 - Finals
(8) Indiana vs. (3) Michigan State (2:30 p.m., CBS).  Predicted winner:  Indiana

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