Monday, February 06, 2017

On Super Bowl Margins of Victory

Everyone is calling Brady the GOAT.  Calm down.  Sunday's 6-point victory was the largest margin of victory the Patriots have ever had in a Super Bowl.  What this means is that Tom Brady, who is 5-2 in Super Bowls, could just as easily be 0-7 (or 7-0, for that matter).  He's been the beneficiary of some good luck, and on the other end as well.  

But this post isn't about Tom Brady or how the Patriots have been caught cheating multiple times.  When I figured out that Brady has never won a Super Bowl by more than six points, I got curious about whether the Patriots have outscored their opponents overall in the franchise's nine Super Bowl appearances.  They have not, thanks in large part to the Bears' 46-10 thrashing of the Patsies in Super Bowl XX. 

Because I like to take things to the logical extreme, that got me thinking even more about the combined margin of victory or loss for every team that has played in a Super Bowl.  Here's how it shakes out.  Of the 28 teams that have played in at least one Super Bowl (the Browns, Lions, Texans, and Jaguars have never played in a Super Bowl), 12 have outscored their opponents, 1 is even, and 15 have been outscored.  The 49ers lead the way with a +123 margin, while the Broncos bring up the rear with a -112 margin.

For shits and giggles –- or perhaps neither –- below are four lists.  The first ranks the teams based on their raw +/- score.  The second ranks the teams by their average margin of victory/loss in Super Bowls.  The third ranks the teams by their average points scored in Super Bowls.  The fourth ranks the teams by their average points given up in Super Bowls.  All of the data for all four lists will be included in the first list only, while I'll include only the criteria specific to the other three lists in those lists.

So what does it all mean?  I don't know.  I just like compiling stats.

Rank based on raw margin of victory or loss
1.  San Francisco 49ers +123
6 Super Bowls (5-1)
-Won Super Bowl XVI 26-21
-Won Super Bowl XIX 38-16
-Won Super Bowl XXIII 20-16
-Won Super Bowl XXIV 55-10
-Won Super Bowl XXIX 49-26
-Lost Super Bowl XLVII 34-31
Average score for/against:  36.5-20.5
Average margin of victory/loss:  +16

2.  Dallas Cowboys +89
8 Super Bowls (5-3)
-Lost Super Bowl V 16-13
-Won Super Bowl VI 24-3
-Lost Super Bowl X 21-17
-Won Super Bowl XII 27-10
-Lost Super Bowl XIII 35-31
-Won Super Bowl XXVII 52-17
-Won Super Bowl XXVIII 30-13
-Won Super Bowl XXX 27-17
Average score for/against:  27.625-16.5
Average margin of victory/loss:  +11.125

3.  Green Bay Packers +57
5 Super Bowls (4-1)
-Won Super Bowl I 35-10
-Won Super Bowl II 33-14
-Won Super Bowl XXXI 35-21
-Lost Super Bowl XXXII 31-24
-Won Super Bowl XLV 31-25
Average score for/against:  31.6-20.2
Average margin of victory/loss:  +11.4

4.  Baltimore Ravens +30
2 Super Bowls (2-0)
-Won Super Bowl XXXV 34-7
-Won Super Bowl XLVII 34-31
Average score for/against: 34-19
Average margin of victory/loss: +15

5.  Pittsburgh Steelers +29
8 Super Bowls (6-2)
-Won Super Bowl IX 16-6
-Won Super Bowl X 21-17
-Won Super Bowl XIII 35-31
-Won Super Bowl XIV 31-19
-Lost Super Bowl XXX 27-17
-Won Super Bowl XL 21-10
-Won Super Bowl XLIII 27-23
-Lost Super Bowl XLV 31-25
Average score for/against:  24.125-20.5
Average margin of victory/loss:  +3.625

6.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers +27
1 Super Bowl (1-0)
-Won Super Bowl XXXVII 48-21
Average score for/against:  48-21
Average margin of victory/loss:  +27

7.  Chicago Bears +24
2 Super Bowls (1-1)
-Won Super Bowl XX 46-10
-Lost Super Bowl XLI 29-17
Average score for/against:  31.5-19.5
Average margin of victory/loss:  +12

8.  Seattle Seahawks +20
3 Super Bowls (1-2)
-Lost Super Bowl XL 21-10
-Won Super Bowl XLVIII 43-8
-Lost Super Bowl XLIX 28-24
Average score for/against:  25.7-19
Average margin of victory/loss:  +6.7

9.  Washington Redskins +19
5 Super Bowls (3-2)
-Lost Super Bowl VII 14-7
-Won Super Bowl XVII 27-17
-Lost Super Bowl XVIII 38-9
-Won Super Bowl XXII 42-10
-Won Super Bowl XXVI 37-24
Average score for/against:  24.4-20.6
Average margin of victory/loss:  +3.8

10.  Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders +18
5 Super Bowls (3-2)
-Lost Super Bowl II 33-14
-Won Super Bowl XI 32-14
-Won Super Bowl XV 27-10
-Won Super Bowl XVIII 38-9
-Lost Super Bowl XXXVII 48-21
Average score for/against:  26.4-22.8
Average margin of victory/loss:  +3.6

11.  New Orleans Saints +14
1 Super Bowl (1-0)
-Won Super Bowl XLIV 31-17
Average score for/against:  31-17
Average margin of victory/loss:  +14

12.  New York Jets +9
1 Super Bowl (1-0)
-Won Super Bowl III 16-7
Average score for/against:  16-7
Average margin of victory/loss:  +9

13.  New York Giants - Even
5 Super Bowls (4-1)
-Won Super Bowl XXI 39-20
-Won Super Bowl XXV 20-19
-Lost Super Bowl XXXV 34-7
-Won Super Bowl XLII 17-14
-Won Super Bowl XLVI 21-17
Average score for/against:  20.8-20.8
Average margin of victory/loss:  0

14.  Arizona Cardinals -4
1 Super Bowl (0-1)
-Lost Super Bowl XLIII 27-23
Average score for/against:  23-27
Average margin of victory/loss: -4

15.  Tennessee Titans -7
1 Super Bowl (0-1)
-Lost Super Bowl XXXIV 23-16
Average score for/against: 16-23
Average margin of victory/loss: -7

16 (tie).  Indianapolis/Baltimore Colts -8
4 Super Bowls (2-2)
-Lost Super Bowl III 16-7
-Won Super Bowl V 16-13
-Won Super Bowl XLI 29-17
-Lost Super Bowl XLIV 31-17
Average score for/against:  17.25-19.25
Average margin of victory/loss: -2

16 (tie).  Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams -8
3 Super Bowls (1-2)
-Lost Super Bowl XIV 31-19
-Won Super Bowl XXXIV 23-16
-Lost Super Bowl XXXVI 20-17
Average score for/against:  19.7-22.3
Average margin of victory/loss: -2.7

18 (tie).  Cincinnati Bengals -9
2 Super Bowls (0-2)
-Lost Super Bowl XVI 26-21
-Lost Super Bowl XXIII 20-16
Average score for/against:  18.5-23
Average margin of victory/loss:  -4.5

18 (tie).  Kansas City Chiefs -9
2 Super Bowls (1-1)
-Lost Super Bowl I 35-10
-Won Super Bowl IV 23-7
Average score for/against:  16.5-21
Average margin of victory/loss: -4.5

20.  Carolina Panthers -17
2 Super Bowls (0-2)
-Lost Super Bowl XXXVIII 32-29
-Lost Super Bowl L 24-10
Average score for/against: 19.5-28
Average margin of victory/loss: -8.5

21.  Philadelphia Eagles -20
2 Super Bowls (0-2)
-Lost Super Bowl XV 27-10
-Lost Super Bowl XXXIX 24-21
Average score for/against:  15.5-25.5
Average margin of victory/loss: -10

22.  Atlanta Falcons -21
2 Super Bowls (0-2)
-Lost Super Bowl XXXIII 34-19
-Lost Super Bowl LI 34-28
Average score for/against:  23.5-34
Average margin of victory/loss:  -10.5

23.  San Diego Chargers -23
1 Super Bowl (0-1)
-Lost Super Bowl XXIX 49-26
Average score for/against:  26-49
Average margin of victory/loss:  -23

24.  Miami Dolphins -29
5 Super Bowls (2-3)
-Lost Super Bowl VI 24-3
-Won Super Bowl VII 14-7
-Won Super Bowl VIII 24-7
-Lost Super Bowl XVII 27-17
-Lost Super Bowl XIX 38-16
Average score for/against:  14.8-20.6
Average margin of victory/loss: -5.8

25.  New England Patriots -38
9 Super Bowls (5-4)
-Lost Super Bowl XX 46-10
-Lost Super Bowl XXXI 35-21
-Won Super Bowl XXXVI 20-17
-Won Super Bowl XXXVIII 32-29
-Won Super Bowl XXXIX 24-21
-Lost Super Bowl XLII 17-14
-Lost Super Bowl XLVI 21-17
-Won Super Bowl XLIX 28-24
-Won Super Bowl LI 34-28
Average score for/against:  22.2-26.4
Average margin of victory/loss:  -4.2

26.  Minnesota Vikings -61
4 Super Bowls (0-4)
-Lost Super Bowl IV 23-7
-Lost Super Bowl VIII 24-7
-Lost Super Bowl IX 16-6
-Lost Super Bowl XI 32-14
Average score for/against: 8.5-23.75
Average margin of victory/loss: -15.25

27.  Buffalo Bills -66
4 Super Bowls (0-4)
-Lost Super Bowl XXV 20-19
-Lost Super Bowl XXVI 37-24
-Lost Super Bowl XXVII 52-17
-Lost Super Bowl XXVIII 30-13
Average score for/against: 18.25-34.75
Average margin of victory/loss: -16.5

28.  Denver Broncos -112
8 Super Bowls (3-5)
-Lost Super Bowl XII 27-10
-Lost Super Bowl XXI 39-20
-Lost Super Bowl XXII 42-10
-Lost Super Bowl XXIV 55-10
-Won Super Bowl XXXII 31-24
-Won Super Bowl XXXIII 34-19
-Lost Super Bowl XLLVIII 43-8
-Won Super Bowl L 24-10
Average score for/against:  18.375-32.375
Average margin of victory/loss:  -14

Rank based on average margin of victory or loss
1.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers +27
2.  San Francisco 49ers +16
3.  Baltimore Ravens +15
4.  New Orleans Saints +14
5.  Green Bay Packers +11.4
6.  Dallas Cowboys +11.125
7.  Chicago Bears +12
8.  New York Jets +9
9.  Seattle Seahawks +6.7
10.  Washington Redskins +3.8
11.  Pittsburgh Steelers +3.625
12.  Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders +3.6
13.  New York Giants - Even
14.  Indianapolis/Baltimore Colts -2
15.  Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams -2.7
16.  Arizona Cardinals -4
17.  New England Patriots -4.2
18 (tie).  Cincinnati Bengals -4.5
18 (tie).  Kansas City Chiefs -4.5
20.  Miami Dolphins -5.8
21.  Tennessee Titans -7
22.  Carolina Panthers -8.5
23.  Philadelphia Eagles -10
24.  Atlanta Falcons -10.5
25.  Denver Broncos -14
26.  Minnesota Vikings -15.25
27.  Buffalo Bills -16.5
28.  San Diego Chargers -23

Rank based on average points scored
1.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 48
2.  San Francisco 49ers: 36.5
3.  Baltimore Ravens: 34
4.  Green Bay Packers: 31.6
5.  Chicago Bears: 31.5
6.  New Orleans Saints: 31
7.  Dallas Cowboys: 27.625
8.  Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders: 26.4
9.  San Diego Chargers: 26
10.  Seattle Seahawks: 25.7
11.  Washington Redskins: 24.4
12.  Pittsburgh Steelers: 24.125
13.  Atlanta Falcons: 23.5
14.  Arizona Cardinals: 23
15.  New England Patriots: 22.2
16.  New York Giants: 20.8
17.  Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams: 19.7
18.  Carolina Panthers: 19.5
19.  Cincinnati Bengals: 18.5
20.  Denver Broncos: 18.375
21.  Buffalo Bills: 18.25
22.  Indianapolis/Baltimore Colts: 17.25
23.  Kansas City Chiefs: 16.5
24 (tie).  New York Jets: 16
24 (tie).  Tennessee Titans: 16
26.  Philadelphia Eagles: 15.5
27.  Miami Dolphins: 14.8
28.  Minnesota Vikings: 8.5

Rank based on average points given up
1.  New York Jets: 7
2.  Dallas Cowboys: 16.5
3.  New Orleans Saints: 17
4 (tie).  Baltimore Ravens: 19
4 (tie).  Seattle Seahawks: 19
6.  Indianapolis/Baltimore Colts: 19.25
7.  Chicago Bears: 19.5
8.  Green Bay Packers: 20.2
9 (tie).  Pittsburgh Steelers: 20.5
9 (tie).  San Francisco 49ers: 20.5
11 (tie).  Miami Dolphins: 20.6
11 (tie).  Washington Redskins: 20.6
13.  New York Giants: 20.8
14 (tie).  Kansas City Chiefs: 21
14 (tie).  Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 21
16.  Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams: 22.3
17.  Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders: 22.8
18 (tie).  Cincinnati Bengals: 23
18 (tie).  Tennessee Titans: 23
20.  Minnesota Vikings: 23.75
21.  Philadelphia Eagles: 25.5
22.  New England Patriots: 26.4
23.  Arizona Cardinals: 27
24.  Carolina Panthers: 28
25.  Denver Broncos: 32.375
26.  Atlanta Falcons: 34
27.  Buffalo Bills: 34.75
28.  San Diego Chargers: 49

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