Big Ten Seeding Scenarios

Since I am mildly retarded and sexually excited when it comes to these kinds of things, and since I know so many of you care about the possible seeding for the Big Ten Tournament, I have prepared some scenarios. (Apologies to Holt, Miller Time, Jamie, Christoff, and Tradd who have already seen this.)

Essentially, if IU beats Penn State on Saturday it is guaranteed the 3 seed. These scenarios are built around IU's fate, so they are not exhaustive.

Most Likely Scenario
Here are the remaining games for Big Ten teams not named Ohio State and Wisconsin, with the most likely results:
IU (9-6): PSU (w) = 10-6
Ill (9-6): at Iowa (l) = 9-7
Iowa (8-7): Ill (w) = 9-7
MSU (8-7): at Wisc (l) = 8-8
Mich (8-7): OSU (l) = 8-8
Pur (8-7): NW (w) = 9-7
Minn (3-13)
NW (2-13): at Pur (l) = 2-14
PSU (2-13): at IU (l) = 2-14

Here would be the seeds if those predicted wins and losses hold true:
1. OSU (clinched)
2. Wisc (clinched)
3. IU (10-6)
4. Iowa (9-7) (2-1 vs. Ill & Pur)
5. Pur (9-7) (1-1 vs. Iowa & Ill)
6. Ill (9-7) (1-2 vs. Iowa & Pur)
7. MSU (8-8) (both MSU and Mich will be 0-2 vs. OSU, but MSU has beaten Wisc, while Mich has not)
8. Mich (8-8)
9. Minn
10. NW
11. PSU (both PSU and NW are 0-2 vs. OSU and Wisc, but PSU is 0-2 vs. IU, while NW is only 0-1)

Iowa and Purdue would play in the 4/5 game, IU would play the winner of Illinois/PSU, Wisconsin would play the winner of MSU/NW, and OSU would play the winner of Mich/Minn.

Fairly Likely Scenario
If Illinois beats Iowa (but all other games go as predicted above), here would be the seeds:
1. OSU (clinched)
2. Wisc (clinched)
3. IU (10-6) (IU and Ill are both 0-1 vs. OSU, but IU is 1-0 vs. Wisc, while Ill is 0-1)
4. Ill (10-6)
5. Pur (9-7)
6. Iowa (8-8) (2-1 vs. MSU & Mich)
7. MSU (8-8) (2-2 vs. Iowa & Mich)
8. Mich (8-8) (1-2 vs. Iowa & MSU)
9. Minn
10. NW
11. PSU

Here, Illinois and Purdue would be in the 4/5 game, probably resulting in a lot of whining and possibly some soft kissing between Bruce Weber and Matt Painter. IU would play the winner of Iowa/PSU, Wisconsin would play the winner of MSU/NW, and OSU would play the winner of Mich/Minn. I like this scenario because it means that either Illinois or Purdue will be guaranteed to be one and done.

Doomsday Scenario
The Doomsday Scenario is what will happen if IU loses to PSU, Iowa beats Illinois, MSU and Mich win Saturday, and Purdue beats NW, resulting in a 6-way tie for 3rd at 9-7.
1. OSU (clinched)
2. Wisc (clinched)
3. Iowa (9-7) (5-3 record vs other 5)
4. Pur (9-7) (4-3 record vs other 5)
5. IU (9-7) (5-5 record vs other 5)
6. Mich (9-7) (4-5 record vs other 5, with 1-1 record vs OSU)
7. Ill (9-7) (4-5 record vs other 5, with 0-1 record vs OSU)
8. MSU (9-7) (4-5 record vs other 5, with 0-2 record vs OSU)
9. Minn
10. PSU
11. NW

Under the Doomsday Scenario, PSU and NW flip, and Minn holds the tiebreaker over PSU for the coveted 9th spot. IU would play Purdue in the 4/5 game, OSU would play the winner of MSU/Minn, Wisconsin would play the winner of Ill/PSU, and Iowa would play the winner of Mich/NW.

Modified Doomsday Scenario
Under this scenario, Iowa beats Ill, IU loses to PSU, and Purdue beats NW, resulting in a 4-way tie for 3rd at 9-7 between IU, Illinois, Iowa, and Purdue.
1. OSU (clinched)
2. Wisc (clinched)
3. Iowa (9-7) (3-2 record vs other 3)
4. IU (9-7) (3-3 record vs other 3, but IU is 0-1 vs. OSU and Purdue is 0-2)
5. Pur (9-7) (2-2 record vs other 3)
6. Ill (9-7) (2-3 record vs other 3)
7. MSU (8-8)
8. Mich (8-8)
9. Minn
10. PSU
11. NW

Here, IU would play Purdue in the 4/5 game, resulting in bloodshed. Iowa would play the winner of Ill/NW, Wisc would play the winner of MSU/PSU (or, as I would call it, the Land Grant Game), and OSU would play the winner of Mich/Minn.

Worse Than Doomsday Scenario
Here's what will come about if Ill beats Iowa, IU loses to PSU, and all the other 8-7 teams win.
1. OSU (clinched)
2. Wisc (clinched)
3. Ill (10-6)
4. Pur (9-7) (3-2 record vs other 3)
5. Mich (9-7) (3-3 record vs other 3, but will have 1-1 record vs. OSU)
6. IU (9-7) (3-3 record vs other 3, with 0-1 record vs OSU)
7. MSU (9-7) (2-3 record vs other 3)
8. Iowa (8-8)
9. Minn
10. PSU
11. NW

Under this terrible scenario, IU would get the lowest possible seed it can get. Purdue and Michigan would play in the 4/5 game, Illinois would play the winner of the IU/NW game, Wisc would play the winner of the Land Grant Game, and OSU would play the winner of the Iowa/Minn game. If this happens, I will kill Holt.