Tuesday Top Ten: Big Ten Bowl Hopefuls After Week 6

Week 6 was an interesting one in the Big Ten.  We saw one team lose by 78, a horrible team lose to another horrible team, and the Indiana Hoosiers fight hard to beat the spread against the hated Buckeyes.  There are now four Big Ten teams in the AP Top 10 -- #2 Ohio State, #4 Michigan, #8 Wisconsin, and #10 Nebraska -- for the first time since 1960.  From here on out, for the teams that have clinched bowl eligibility, I'm going to give you what I think are the realistic best and worst case bowl scenarios.

Here are this past Saturday's results, as well as this coming week's slate of games (rankings are AP):

Week 6 results:

Iowa 14 Minnesota 7
Penn State 38 Maryland 14
BYU 31 Michigan State 14
#2 Ohio State 38 Indiana 17
Purdue 34 Illinois 31
#4 Michigan 78 Rutgers 0

Byes:  #12 Nebraska, Northwestern, #11 Wisconsin

Week 7 schedule (all games are October 15; times listed are Eastern)

Illinois at Rutgers (12 p.m.; ESPNews)

Minnesota at Maryland (12 p.m.; ESPNU)

Iowa at Purdue (12 p.m.; ESPN2)
#10 Nebraska at Indiana (3:30 p.m.; ABC)

Northwestern at Michigan State (3:30 p.m.; BTN)

#2 Ohio State at #8 Wisconsin (8 p.m.; ABC)

Byes:  #4 Michigan, Penn State

Let's take a look at the bowl chances of each Big Ten team.  I'll list each team's current record (overall and conference), and then I'll break down each team's (1) remaining games by likely wins, likely losses, and toss-ups, (2) toughest remaining game, (3) probable regular season win total, with a range of three wins (this will not include the Big Ten Championship game or any postseason games), (4) analysis of the team, (5) how many more games they need to win to become bowl-eligible, (6) what it will take to make a bowl, and (7) for those teams that have clinched a bowl, the realistic best and worst case bowl scenarios.  For sake of ease, I'm just going to go in alphabetical order.

1.  Illinois

Record:  1-4 (0-2)

Remaining likely wins:  at Rutgers (10/15)

Remaining likely losses:  at Michigan (10/22), Michigan State (11/5), at Wisconsin (11/12), Iowa (11/19), at Northwestern (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  Minnesota (10/29)

Toughest remaining game:  at Michigan (10/22)

Probable win total:  2-4

Analysis:  Losing to Purdue at home is unacceptable.  Illinois might be the worst team in the Big Ten, other than the team they're playing this Saturday.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  5

Will make a bowl if:  Donald Trump becomes contrite.

2.  Indiana

Record:  3-2 (1-1)

Remaining likely wins:  Maryland (10/29), at Rutgers (11/5), Purdue (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  at Michigan (11/19)

Remaining toss-ups:  Nebraska (10/15), at Northwestern (10/22), Penn State (11/12)

Toughest remaining game:  at Michigan (11/19)

Probable win total:  6-8

Analysis:  IU's 38-17 loss to O$U in the Horseshoe was closer than the score indicated.  The Hoosiers were on the wrong end of a bad fumble call that should have been a incomplete pass, which gave the Buckeyes the ball on the IU 9 yard line in the first half.  And then, after scoring right before halftime to get within 7, they gave up a long kickoff return that set up another Buckeyes TD.  I'm not saying the Hoosiers would have won but for those two plays, but it certainly would have been a closer game.  Now, IU gets Nebraska at home for the first time since the Huskers joined the Big Ten.  I ain't scurred.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  3

Will make a bowl if:  their defense continues to play well.

3.  Iowa

Record:  4-2 (2-1)

Remaining likely wins:  at Purdue (10/15), at Illinois (11/19), Nebraska (11/25)

Remaining likely losses:  Wisconsin (10/22), at Penn State (11/5), Michigan (11/12)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  Michigan (11/12)

Probable win total:  7-9

Analysis:  It wasn't pretty, but Hawkeyes fans have to be happy with their 14-7 win over Minnesota, for Floyd of Rosedale, one of the best college football trophies around.  They can't let their trip to West Lafayette this weekend turn into a trap game, looking ahead to next weekend's trip to Camp Randall.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  2

Will make a bowl if:  they continue to right the ship.

4.  Maryland

2016 record:  4-1 (1-1)

Remaining likely wins:  Rutgers (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  Michigan State (10/22), at Indiana (10/29), at Michigan (11/5), Ohio State (11/12), at Nebraska (11/19)

Remaining toss-ups:  Minnesota (10/15)

Toughest remaining game:  at Michigan (11/5)

Probable win total:  5-7

Analysis:  The Terps were brought back to reality after starting 4-0, with a 38-14 drubbing at the hands of Penn State.  Not all hope is lost, though, as a reeling Michigan State team visits College Park this Saturday.  And they still have a few winnable games left after that.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  2

Will make a bowl if:  they beat Minnesota and Rutgers.

5.  Michigan

2016 record:  6-0 (3-0)

Remaining likely wins:  Illinois (10/22), Maryland (11/5), at Iowa (11/12), Indiana (11/19)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  at Michigan State (10/29), at Ohio State (11/26)

Toughest remaining game:  at Ohio State (11/26)

Probable win total:  10-12

Analysis:  

Best case bowl scenario:  College Football Playoff

Worst case bowl scenario:  Holiday Bowl

6.  Michigan State

2016 record:  2-3 (0-2)

Remaining likely wins:  Northwestern (10/15), at Maryland (10/22), at Illinois (11/5), Rutgers (11/12), at Penn State (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  Michigan (10/29), Ohio State (11/19)

Toughest remaining game:  Ohio State (11/19)

Probable win total:  7-9

Analysis:  Holy shit, what they hell is happening in East Lansing?  Nine months removed from a trip to the College Football Playoff and Sparty is under .500, having just been blown out at home by BYU, 31-14.  They desperately need a win this Saturday against Northwestern to stop the bleeding.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  4

Will make a bowl if:  they calm down.

7.  Minnesota

2016 record:  3-2 (0-2)

Remaining likely wins:  Rutgers (10/22), Purdue (11/5)

Remaining likely losses:  at Nebraska (11/12), at Wisconsin (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  at Maryland (10/15), at Illinois (10/29), Northwestern (11/19)

Toughest remaining game:  at Wisconsin (11/26)

Probable win total:  5-7

Analysis:  The Gophers blew another opportunity, losing a tough 14-7 game to Iowa at home.  This weekend's game at Maryland may be a knockout game.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  3

Will make a bowl if:  they beat either Maryland or Illinois on the road.

8.  Nebraska

2016 record:  5-0 (2-0)

Remaining likely wins:  Purdue (10/22), Minnesota (11/12), Maryland (11/19)

Remaining likely losses:  at Wisconsin (10/29), at Ohio State (11/5), at Iowa (11/25)

Remaining toss-ups:  at Indiana (10/15)

Toughest remaining game:  at Ohio State (11/5)

Probable win total:  8-10

Analysis:  The Huskers had a bye this past Saturday, before they have to make their first trip to Bloomington for the Hoosiers' homecoming.  They moved up to #10 in the AP poll, although I think that might be a little high.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  1

Will make a bowl if:  they win one of the next two games.

9.  Northwestern

2016 record:  2-3 (1-1)

Remaining likely wins:  Purdue (11/12), Illinois (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  at Michigan State (10/15), at Ohio State (10/29), Wisconsin (11/5)

Remaining toss-ups:  Indiana (10/22), at Minnesota (11/19)

Toughest remaining game:  at Ohio State (10/29)

Probable win total:  5-7

Analysis:  The Wildcats had a much-needed bye, before heading to East Lansing this weekend to take on the Spartans.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  4

Will make a bowl if:  they stop playing like shit.

10.  Ohio State

2016 record:  5-0 (2-0)

Remaining likely wins:  at Penn State (10/22), Northwestern (10/29), Nebraska (11/5), at Maryland (11/12)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  at Wisconsin (10/15), at Michigan State (11/19), Michigan (11/26)

Toughest remaining game:  at Wisconsin (10/15)

Probable win total:  10-12

Analysis:  The Buckeyes handled Indiana in Columbus, but it wasn't pretty.  This week, they have the unenviable task of travelling to Madison to play the Badgers at night.  Everyone in Camp Randall is going to be hammered, loud, and nasally.  

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  1

Will make a bowl if:  Columbus doesn't implode or explode in the next few weeks

11.  Penn State

2016 record:  4-2 (2-1)

Remaining likely wins:  at Purdue (10/29), at Rutgers (11/19)

Remaining likely losses:  Ohio State (10/22), Michigan State (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  Iowa (11/5), at Indiana (11/12)

Toughest remaining game:  Ohio State (10/22)

Probable win total:  6-8

Analysis:  Penn State brought Maryland back to reality last Saturday, with a 38-14 trouncing of the Terps in Happy Valley.  Saquan Barkley became the first Nittany Lions player to rush for over 200 yards since Larry Johnson in 2002.  They are rewarded with a bye this weekend.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  2

Will make a bowl if:  they play Purdue and Rutgers.

12.  Purdue

2016 record:  3-2 (1-1)

Remaining likely wins:  none

Remaining likely losses:  Iowa (10/15), at Nebraska (10/22), Penn State (10/29), at Minnesota (11/5), Northwestern (11/12), Wisconsin (11/19), at Indiana (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  Wisconsin (11/19)

Probable win total:  3-4

Analysis:  Darrell Hazell saved his job for the time being by beating Illinois in Champaign this past Saturday.  I should also note, fuck Purdue.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  3

Will make a bowl if:  Fathers Merrin and Karras exorcise the entire city of West Lafayette.

13.  Rutgers

2016 record:  2-4 (0-3)

Remaining likely wins:  none

Remaining likely losses:  Illinois (10/15), at Minnesota (10/22), Indiana (11/5), at Michigan State (11/12), Penn State (11/19), at Maryland (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  at Michigan State (11/12)

Probable win total:  2-3

Analysis:  After last week's 58-0 loss to Ohio State, the Scarlet Knights did us one better by losing 78-0 to Michigan.  If you're counting, that's 136-0 over two weeks.  I haven't done the research on this, but that has to be the worst two-game stretch for a major conference team ever.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  4

Will make a bowl if:  I dunk a basketball right now.

14.  Wisconsin

2016 record:  4-1 (1-1)

Remaining likely wins:  at Iowa (10/22), Nebraska (10/29), at Northwestern (11/5), Illinois (11/12), at Purdue (11/19), Minnesota (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  Ohio State (10/15)

Toughest remaining game:  Ohio State (10/15)

Probable win total:  8-10

Analysis:  This Saturday, we'll get to see if the Badgers are for real or not.  A prime time matchup on ABC against Ohio State in Camp Randall gives Wisconsin a chance to prove it's worthy of its #8 ranking.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  2

Will make a bowl if:  Madison is a fun town.