Tuesday Top Ten: Big Ten Bowl Hopefuls After Week 8

This past Saturday, for reasons unknown to me, I spent money to watch IU lose to Northwestern in person.  For the second week in a row, the Hoosiers spotted their opponent 14+ points in the first quarter, and then were unable to overcome the hole they put themselves in.  Of course, the bigger news is that Penn State upset #2 Ohio State in Happy Valley, giving the Nittany Lions their first true signature victory in the post-Paterno post-child-rape-cover-up era.

Here are this past Saturday's results, as well as this coming week's slate of games (rankings are AP):

Week 8 results:

Minnesota 34 Rutgers 32
#10 Wisconsin 17 Iowa 9
Northwestern 24 Indiana 14
#3 Michigan 41 Illinois 8
#8 Nebraska 27 Purdue 14
Maryland 28 Michigan State 17
Penn State 24 #2 Ohio State 21

Week 9 schedule (all games are October 29; times listed are Eastern)
Minnesota at Illinois (12 p.m.; BTN)
#2 Michigan at Michigan State (12 p.m.; ESPN)
#24 Penn State at Purdue (12 p.m.; ABC)
Northwestern at #6 Ohio State (3:30 p.m.; ESPN)
Maryland at Indiana (3:30 p.m.; ESPNU)
#7 Nebraska at #11 Wisconsin (7 p.m.; ESPN)
Byes:  Iowa, Rutgers

Let's take a look at the bowl chances of each Big Ten team.  I'll list each team's current record (overall and conference), and then I'll break down each team's (1) remaining games by likely wins, likely losses, and toss-ups, (2) toughest remaining game, (3) probable regular season win total, with a range of three wins (this will not include the Big Ten Championship game or any postseason games), (4) analysis of the team, (5) how many more games they need to win to become bowl-eligible, (6) what it will take to make a bowl, and (7) for those teams that have clinched a bowl, the realistic best and worst case bowl scenarios.  For sake of ease, I'm just going to go in alphabetical order.

1.  Illinois

Record:  2-5 (1-3)

Remaining likely wins:  none

Remaining likely losses:  Michigan State (11/5), Iowa (11/19), at Northwestern (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  Minnesota (10/29)

Toughest remaining game:  at Wisconsin (11/12)

Probable win total:  2-4

Analysis:  The Illini were destroyed by Michigan, 41-8, but hey, they beat the spread, so at least they made some people happy.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  4

Will make a bowl if:  they only, cough, lose one more game.

2.  Indiana

Record:  3-4 (1-3)

Remaining likely wins:  Maryland (10/29), at Rutgers (11/5), Purdue (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  at Michigan (11/19)

Remaining toss-ups:  Penn State (11/12)

Toughest remaining game:  at Michigan (11/19)

Probable win total:  6-8

Analysis:  The Hoosiers' defense has been playing really well after the first quarter.  The issue is that they're giving up early points, and the offense has not been firing on all cylinders.  QB Richard Lagow has been sailing balls over receivers' hands, and RB Devine Redding hasn't rushed for 100+ yards since the Hoosiers upset Michigan State on October 1.  This Saturday's game against Maryland is basically a must-win if IU wants to go to a bowl.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  3

Will make a bowl if:  their defense can avoid giving up double digits in the first quarter.

3.  Iowa

Record:  5-3 (3-2)

Remaining likely wins:  at Illinois (11/19), Nebraska (11/25)

Remaining likely losses:  at Penn State (11/5), Michigan (11/12)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  Michigan (11/12)

Probable win total:  7-9

Analysis:  The Hawkeyes lost a tough game at home to #10 Wisconsin, 17-9.  That said, they still only need one more win to become bowl-eligible, and they have a bye this week before heading to Happy Valley next weekend.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  1

Will make a bowl if:  they beat Illinois on November 19.

4.  Maryland

2016 record:  5-2 (2-2)

Remaining likely wins:  Rutgers (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  at Indiana (10/29), at Michigan (11/5), Ohio State (11/12), at Nebraska (11/19)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  at Michigan (11/5)

Probable win total:  5-7

Analysis:  With their win over Michigan State Saturday, the Terps have put themselves in solid position to go to a bowl.  Given their schedule, though, that sixth win may not come until their final game against Rutgers on November 26.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  1

Will make a bowl if:  they beat Rutgers.

5.  Michigan

2016 record:  7-0 (4-0)

Remaining likely wins:  at Michigan State (10/29), Maryland (11/5), at Iowa (11/12), Indiana (11/19)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  at Ohio State (11/26)

Toughest remaining game:  at Ohio State (11/26)

Probable win total:  10-12

Analysis:  After beating up on Illinois, the Wolverines had to be happy to watch Penn State knock off Ohio State.  Michigan's schedule leading up to that showdown in Columbus at the end of November isn't necessarily a cake walk, but then again, what the fuck is a cake walk anyway?

Best case bowl scenario:  College Football Playoff

Worst case bowl scenario:  Outback Bowl

6.  Michigan State

2016 record:  2-5 (0-4)

Remaining likely wins:  at Illinois (11/5), Rutgers (11/12) 

Remaining likely losses:  Michigan (10/29), Ohio State (11/19), at Penn State (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:   none

Toughest remaining game:  Ohio State (11/19)

Probable win total:  4-6

Analysis:  Things are not going well in Sparta.  After winning the Big Ten title last year and going to the College Football Playoff, Michigan State has lost five in a row after winning their first two games this season.  A trip to Ann Arbor this Saturday isn't going to help, although strange things seem to happen when Michigan and Michigan State play each other, so not all hope is lost just yet.  That said, things aren't looking good for the Spartans to go to a bowl this year.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  4

Will make a bowl if:  they upset a ranked team.

7.  Minnesota

2016 record:  5-2 (2-2)

Remaining likely wins:  at Illinois (10/29), Purdue (11/5)

Remaining likely losses:  at Nebraska (11/12), at Wisconsin (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  Northwestern (11/19)

Toughest remaining game:  at Wisconsin (11/26)

Probable win total:  6-8

Analysis:  The Gophers almost laid an egg against Rutgers at home, needing to score late to win 34-32.  But a W is a W, and that makes five of them for Minnesota, which they have to be happy about.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  1

Will make a bowl if:  they can win one out of their next two games against Illinois and Purdue.

8.  Nebraska

2016 record:  7-0 (4-0)

Remaining likely wins:  Minnesota (11/12), Maryland (11/19)

Remaining likely losses:  at Wisconsin (10/29), at Ohio State (11/5), at Iowa (11/25)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  at Ohio State (11/5)

Probable win total:  9-11

Analysis:  The Huskers beat Purdue at home, although it wasn't a blowout (27-14).  It's still not clear to many of us if Nebraska is for real, but they can prove they are this Saturday nights, as they make the trip to Camp Randall to take on Wisconsin under the lights.  At least, I assume the lights will be on.  It's late fall, after all.

Best case bowl scenario:  At-large bid to BCS bowl

Worst case bowl scenario:  Music City Bowl

9.  Northwestern

2016 record:  4-3 (2-1)

Remaining likely wins:  Purdue (11/12), Illinois (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  at Ohio State (10/29), Wisconsin (11/5)

Remaining toss-ups:  at Minnesota (11/19)

Toughest remaining game:  at Ohio State (10/29)

Probable win total:  6-8

Analysis:  The Wildcats' win over Indiana last Saturday -- their third in a row -- went a long way towards sending them to a bowl.  With four wins and remaining games against Purdue and Illinois, things look good for Northwestern after a brutal start that included home losses to Western Michigan (who, admittedly, is still undefeated and ranked) and FCS opponent Illinois State.  Unfortunately, they will have to play Ohio State in the Horseshoe this Saturday, and Ohio State is likely going to be pissed after that loss to Penn State.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  2

Will make a bowl if:  they keep playing like they have the last three games.

10.  Ohio State

2016 record:  6-1 (3-1)

Remaining likely wins:  Northwestern (10/29), Nebraska (11/5), at Maryland (11/12), at Michigan State (11/19)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  Michigan (11/26)

Toughest remaining game:  Michigan (11/26)

Probable win total:  10-12

Analysis:  Calm down, Buckeyes fans.  The world has not ended, despite Ohio State's loss to Penn State this past Saturday.  I still think the Buckeyes can make the College Football Playoff if they win out in the regular season and win the Big Ten title game.  Of course, one more loss would likely mean that Ohio State would be relegated to a BCS bowl or, gulp, a non-BCS New Years Day bowl.

Best case bowl scenario:  College Football Playoff

Worst case bowl scenario:  Citrus Bowl

11.  Penn State

2016 record:  5-2 (3-1)

Remaining likely wins:  at Purdue (10/29), at Rutgers (11/19), Michigan State (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  Iowa (11/5), at Indiana (11/12)

Toughest remaining game:  Iowa (11/5)

Probable win total:  8-10

Analysis:  The Nittany Lions' huge upset of Ohio State put them one win away from bowl eligibility and, given their remaining schedule, it's not inconceivable that Penn State could go to the Big Ten title game if they win out.  If they win out, Ohio State wins out, and Michigan either loses to Ohio State or loses twice, then there would either be a two-way or three-way tie at the top of the Big Ten East.  If it's a tie between OSU and PSU, PSU would have the tiebreaker because of their win over OSU.  If it's a three-way tie between Michigan, OSU, and PSU, it would come down to other tiebreakers, and maybe even a random draw.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  1

Will make a bowl if:  they play Purdue this Saturday.

12.  Purdue

2016 record:  3-4 (1-3)

Remaining likely wins:  none

Remaining likely losses:  Penn State (10/29), at Minnesota (11/5), Northwestern (11/12), Wisconsin (11/19), at Indiana (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  Wisconsin (11/19)

Probable win total:  3-4

Analysis:  Even with a new coach, Purdue sucks.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  3

Will make a bowl if:  Gene Keady won a national title when he was the head coach of anything.

13.  Rutgers

2016 record:  2-6 (0-5)

Remaining likely wins:  none

Remaining likely losses:  Indiana (11/5), at Michigan State (11/12), Penn State (11/19), at Maryland (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  at Michigan State (11/12)

Probable win total:  2-3

Analysis:  The Scarlet Knights unleashed on Minnesota, scoring 32 points and almost pulling off the upset, before ceding a field goal with 10 seconds left to stay winless in the Big Ten.  Their 32 points were 18 more than they had scored in the previous four games combined. With one more loss, Rutgers will be eliminated from bowl contention and will be removed from this list.  They do have a bye this week, so that they can enjoy New Jersey this weekend without the prospect of losing.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  4

Will make a bowl if:  the Nets move back to Newark tomorrow.

14.  Wisconsin

2016 record:  5-2 (2-2)

Remaining likely wins:  Nebraska (10/29), at Northwestern (11/5), Illinois (11/12), at Purdue (11/19), Minnesota (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  Nebraska (10/29)

Probable win total:  8-10

Analysis:  The Badgers took care of business in Iowa City this past Saturday, 17-9, in a typical Big Ten game.  They are now only one game away from bowl eligibility, which is basically a foregone conclusion.  That said, they have a tough game this weekend, with Nebraska coming to town.  After that, it should be smooth sailing for the Badgers.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  1

Will make a bowl if:  Halloween is on a Monday this year.