After
the first weekend of college football, I posted a Tuesday
Top Ten about each Big Ten team's bowl chances. Since I enjoy college football, and you'll be
getting plenty of music knowledge and analysis otherwise throughout Rocktober,
I'm going to post an updated version of the Big Ten teams' bowl chances after
each week.
Here
are this past Saturday's results, as well as this coming week's slate of games
(rankings are AP):
Week
5 results:
Indiana
24 #17 Michigan State 21 (OT)
#2
Ohio State 58 Rutgers 0
#4
Michigan 14 #8 Wisconsin 7
#15
Nebraska 31 Illinois 16
Northwestern
38 Iowa 31
Maryland
50 Purdue 7
Penn
State 29 Minnesota 26 (OT)
Week
6 schedule (all games are October 8; times listed are Eastern)
Iowa
at Minnesota (12 p.m.; ESPN2)
Maryland
at Penn State (12 p.m.; BTN)
Indiana
at #2 Ohio State (3:30 p.m.; ESPN)
BYU
at Michigan State (3:30 p.m.)
Purdue
at Illinois (3:30 p.m.; BTN)
#4
Michigan at Rutgers (7 p.m.; ESPN2)
Byes: #12 Nebraska, Northwestern, #11 Wisconsin
Let's
take a look at the bowl chances of each Big Ten team. I'll list each team's current record (overall
and conference), and then I'll break down each team's (1) remaining games by
likely wins, likely losses, and toss-ups, (2) toughest remaining game, (3)
probable regular season win total, with a range of three wins (this will not
include the Big Ten Championship game or any postseason games), (4) analysis of
the team, (5) how many more games they need to win to become bowl-eligible, and
(6) what it will take to make a bowl.
For sake of ease, I'm just going to go in alphabetical order.
1. Illinois
Record: 1-3 (0-1)
Remaining
likely wins: Purdue (10/8), at Rutgers (10/15)
Remaining
likely losses: at Michigan (10/22), Michigan State (11/5),
at Wisconsin (11/12), Iowa (11/19), at Northwestern (11/26)
Remaining
toss-ups: Minnesota (10/29)
Toughest remaining
game: at Michigan (10/22)
Probable win
total: 3-4
Analysis: The Lovie Smith era has started in Champaign
with some hard knocks. The Illini are
not very good, and it will probably be a few years until there are. That said, there are some bright spots. They held their own at Nebraska last
Saturday, taking a 6-point lead into the fourth quarter before giving up three
touchdowns.
Number of wins
still needed to become bowl-eligible:
5
Will make a
bowl if: Red Grange, Dick Butkus, and Ray Nitschke all
return to the playing field in their primes.
2. Indiana
Record: 3-1 (1-0)
Remaining
likely wins: Maryland (10/29), at Rutgers (11/5), Purdue
(11/26)
Remaining
likely losses: at Ohio State
(10/8), at Michigan (11/19)
Remaining
toss-ups: Nebraska (10/15), at Northwestern (10/22),
Penn State (11/12)
Toughest remaining
game: at Ohio State (10/8)
Probable win
total: 6-8
Analysis: A week after a horrible performance against
Wake Forest (5 INTs), Richard Lagow led the Hoosiers to a huge come-from-behind
win over #17 Michigan State to take back the Old Brass Spittoon. After so many close calls last year against
ranked teams (losing to Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio State each by a touchdown),
maybe this was the breakthrough IU needed.
Their defense is vastly improved under first year DC Tom Allen and is
4-2-5 scheme. Now, it's time to shock
the world by beating O$U in the Horseshoe this Saturday.
Number of wins
still needed to become bowl-eligible:
3
Will make a
bowl if: they win the games they should.
3. Iowa
Record: 3-2 (1-1)
Remaining
likely wins: at Minnesota (10/8), at Purdue (10/15), at
Illinois (11/19), Nebraska (11/25)
Remaining
likely losses: Wisconsin (10/22), at Penn State (11/5),
Michigan (11/12)
Remaining
toss-ups: none
Toughest remaining
game: Michigan (11/12)
Probable win
total: 7-9
Analysis: Iowa is an enigma. After winning the Big Ten West last year and
going to the Rose Bowl, the Hawkeyes were expected to be contending for a CFP
spot this year. They looked to be on
their way with two blowouts in their first two games. Then, they lost to FCS stalwart North Dakota
State at home, squeaked by Rutgers in Piscataway, and then lost at home to a
reeling Northwestern team at Homecoming.
I don't know what to think anymore.
Number of wins
still needed to become bowl-eligible:
3
Will make a
bowl if: the good Hawkeyes show up more often than the
bad Hawkeyes.
4. Maryland
2016 record: 4-0 (1-0)
Remaining
likely wins: Rutgers (11/26)
Remaining
likely losses: at Penn State (10/8), Michigan State (10/22),
at Indiana (10/29), at Michigan (11/5), Ohio State (11/12), at Nebraska (11/19)
Remaining
toss-ups: Minnesota (10/15)
Toughest remaining
game: at Michigan (11/5)
Probable win
total: 5-7
Analysis: Maryland is sitting at 4-0 after its
non-conference slate and a home annihilation of Purdue this past Saturday. I'm not totally sold on the Terps just yet,
and the road is about to get tougher, starting with this Saturday's trip to
Happy Valley. This may be similar to
what happened with IU last year, where the Hoosiers suffered a six-game losing
streak in the middle of the season, but managed to win its sixth game the last
weekend of the season.
Number of wins
still needed to become bowl-eligible:
2
Will make a
bowl if: they beat Minnesota and Rutgers.
5. Michigan
2016 record: 5-0 (2-0)
Remaining
likely wins: at Rutgers (10/8), Illinois (10/22), Maryland
(11/5), at Iowa (11/12), Indiana (11/19)
Remaining
likely losses: none
Remaining
toss-ups: at Michigan State (10/29), at Ohio State
(11/26)
Toughest remaining
game: at Ohio State (11/26)
Probable win
total: 10-12
Analysis: In their first four games, the
Wolverines dominated their opponents, winning by an average margin of 52-13.75. This past Saturday was their first real test,
as #8 Wisconsin came to the Big House.
The game was the kind of game everyone outside the Big Ten hates –- a
14-7, "three yards and a cloud of dust" grinder, with Michigan coming
out on top. The Wolverines are good, but how good is still up in the air, with
huge games at Michigan State and at Ohio State looming at the end of October
and November, respectively.
Number of wins
still needed to become bowl-eligible:
1
Will make a
bowl if: they beat Rutgers on Saturday.
6. Michigan State
2016 record: 2-2 (0-2)
Remaining
likely wins: BYU (10/8), Northwestern (10/15), at Maryland
(10/22), at Illinois (11/5), Rutgers (11/12), at Penn State (11/26)
Remaining
likely losses: none
Remaining
toss-ups: Michigan (10/29), Ohio State (11/19)
Toughest remaining
game: Ohio State (11/19)
Probable win
total: 8-10
Analysis: After a Week 2 win in South Bend against
Notre Dame, the Spartans sat at 2-0 and looked poised to defend their Big Ten
championship. Then Wisconsin game to
Spartan Stadium and dismantled Michigan State, 30-6, before the Spartans fell
to Indiana this past Saturday in OT in Bloomington. The schedule is favorable for the Spartans,
for the most part. That said, with two conference
losses already, even if the Spartans beat both Michigan and Ohio State, they'll
likely be on the outside looking in on the Big Ten Championship Game, barring
some major upsets.
Number of wins
still needed to become bowl-eligible:
4
Will make a
bowl if: they take a deep breath and remember that
they're still pretty damn good at football.
7. Minnesota
2016 record: 3-1 (0-1)
Remaining
likely wins: Rutgers (10/22), Purdue (11/5)
Remaining
likely losses: Iowa (10/8), at Nebraska (11/12), at
Wisconsin (11/26)
Remaining
toss-ups: at Maryland (10/15), at Illinois (10/29), Northwestern
(11/19)
Toughest remaining
game: at Wisconsin (11/26)
Probable win
total: 5-7
Analysis: The Gophers blew a huge chance to go 4-0 this
past weekend, losing a heartbreaker to Penn State in OT. Given Minnesota's remaining schedule, that
would have all but assured a bowl berth.
Even so, the Gophers still have a pretty good chance of winning six
games. This Saturday's Floyd of Rosedale
game against Iowa is a big opportunity for Minnesota, especially given the
Hawkeyes' recent struggles.
Number of wins
still needed to become bowl-eligible:
3
Will make a
bowl if: they beat either Maryland or Illinois on the
road.
8. Nebraska
2016 record: 5-0 (2-0)
Remaining
likely wins: Purdue (10/22), Minnesota (11/12), Maryland
(11/19)
Remaining
likely losses: at Wisconsin (10/29), at Ohio State (11/5),
at Iowa (11/25)
Remaining
toss-ups: at Indiana (10/15)
Toughest remaining
game: at Ohio State (11/5)
Probable win
total: 8-10
Analysis: Nebraska has quietly worked its way to 5-0
and a #12 ranking. I think they're
probably not one of the fifteen best teams in the country, but still, they beat
Oregon at home and Northwestern on the road.
Now, they have a week off before making the trip to Bloomington for the
Hoosiers' homecoming on October 15.
Number of wins
still needed to become bowl-eligible:
1
Will make a
bowl if: they win one more game.
9. Northwestern
2016 record: 2-3 (1-1)
Remaining
likely wins: Purdue (11/12), Illinois (11/26)
Remaining
likely losses: at Michigan State (10/15), at Ohio State
(10/29), Wisconsin (11/5)
Remaining
toss-ups: Indiana (10/22), at Minnesota (11/19)
Toughest remaining
game: at Ohio State (10/29)
Probable win
total: 5-7
Analysis: Before the season, I'm guessing a lot of
Northwestern fans expected the Wildcats to be 4-0 heading into their game with
Iowa this past Saturday. Instead, the
Wildcats started 0-2, losing to not-so-bad Western Michigan and FCS opponent
Illinois State at home, before beating Duke, losing to Nebraska, and then
upsetting Iowa in Iowa City. It's an
untrustworthy Northwestern team, capable of beating great teams and losing to
bad ones. Just another football season
in Evanston.
Number of wins
still needed to become bowl-eligible:
1
Will make a
bowl if: they can manage some consistency.
10. Ohio State
2016 record: 4-0 (1-0)
Remaining
likely wins: Indiana (10/8), at Penn State (10/22),
Northwestern (10/29), Nebraska (11/5), at Maryland (11/12)
Remaining
likely losses: none
Remaining
toss-ups: at Wisconsin (10/15), at Michigan State (11/19),
Michigan (11/26)
Toughest remaining
game: at Wisconsin (10/15)
Probable win
total: 10-12
Analysis: The Buckeyes have destroyed everything in
their path thus far, winning by an average score of 57-9.25. Of course, they have only played one decent
team –- Oklahoma, who they beat 45-24 in Norman. My hope is that they are looking ahead to
their October 15 trip to Madison, such that they completely fail to prepare for
their game this Saturday against IU, giving the Hoosiers their first win over
the Buckeyes since 1990.
Number of wins
still needed to become bowl-eligible:
2
Will make a
bowl if: Columbus doesn't implode or explode in the
next few weeks
11. Penn State
2016 record: 3-2 (1-1)
Remaining
likely wins: Maryland (10/8), at Purdue (10/29), at
Rutgers (11/19)
Remaining
likely losses: Ohio State (10/22), Michigan State (11/26)
Remaining
toss-ups: Iowa (11/5), at Indiana (11/12)
Toughest remaining
game: Ohio State (10/22)
Probable win
total: 6-8
Analysis: I'm not sure what to think of Penn State just
yet. Other than their 33-13 opening
weekend win over a dismal Kent State team, neither of the Nittany Lions' other
two wins have been particularly impressive (a 7-point win over Temple and a
3-point OT win over Minnesota, both at home).
That said, they should still make a bowl, barring a disaster.
Number of wins
still needed to become bowl-eligible:
3
Will make a
bowl if: they don't
lose to Maryland at home this weekend.
12. Purdue
2016 record: 2-2 (0-1)
Remaining
likely wins: none
Remaining
likely losses: at Illinois (10/8), Iowa (10/15), at Nebraska
(10/22), Penn State (10/29), at Minnesota (11/5), Northwestern (11/12),
Wisconsin (11/19), at Indiana (11/26)
Remaining
toss-ups: none
Toughest remaining
game: Wisconsin (11/19)
Probable win
total: 2-4
Analysis: Purdue is not good, and there is already talk
of Darrell Hazell's job being in jeopardy after the Boilermakers were destroyed
50-7 by Maryland this past Saturday.
It's going to be tough for the Boilers to win another game this year.
Number of wins
still needed to become bowl-eligible:
4
Will make a
bowl if: Iowa, Penn State, Northwestern, and Wisconsin
all forfeit rather than forcing themselves to travel to West Lafayette.
13. Rutgers
2016 record: 2-3 (0-2)
Remaining
likely wins: none
Remaining
likely losses: Michigan (10/8), Illinois (10/15), at
Minnesota (10/22), Indiana (11/5), at Michigan State (11/12), Penn State
(11/19), at Maryland (11/26)
Remaining
toss-ups: none
Toughest remaining
game: at Michigan State (11/12)
Probable win
total: 2-4
Analysis: After showing a ray of hope by only losing to
Iowa by 7 two weeks ago, the Scarlet Knights were brought back to reality with
a 58-0 drubbing at the merciless hands of Urban Meyer and Ohio Stat this past
Saturday.
Number of wins
still needed to become bowl-eligible:
4
Will make a
bowl if: Chris Christie wins the presidential election.
14. Wisconsin
2016 record: 4-1 (1-1)
Remaining
likely wins: at Iowa (10/22), Nebraska (10/29), at
Northwestern (11/5), Illinois (11/12), at Purdue (11/19), Minnesota (11/26)
Remaining
likely losses: none
Remaining
toss-ups: Ohio State (10/15)
Toughest remaining
game: Ohio State (10/15)
Probable win
total: 8-10
Analysis: The Badgers nearly pulled off the upset over
Michigan in the Big House this weekend, losing 14-7. They now have a week off before a huge
showdown with Ohio State in Camp Randall on the 15th. A win puts the Badgers in the driver's seat
for the Big Ten West crown. While a loss
to O$U doesn't completely knock the Badgers out of title contention, it would
make it significantly harder because they would have to overcome what could be
a two-game deficit in the loss column if they want to go to Lucas Oil Stadium
the first Saturday in December.
Number of wins
still needed to become bowl-eligible:
2
Will make a bowl if: they continue doing what they're doing.
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