Tuesday Top Ten: Big Ten Bowl Outlook After Week 7

I had the pleasure of going down to Bloomington this past weekend for Homecoming, to see the Hoosiers play Nebraska in football for the first time since the Huskers joined the Big Ten.  After spotting Nebraska the first 17 points by the end of the first quarter, IU settled down and fought back to get the margin to 2 points in the fourth quarter, before giving up a field goal and throwing a late pick to lose 27-22.  It was another moral victory against a top 10 team.  I guess we'll have to wait until the Hoosiers visit Ann Arbor on November 19 for IU's first win over a top 10 team since 1987.  Regardless, it's nice to know IU is the best college football team in Indiana.  Elsewhere in the Big Ten, all other road teams won.

Here are this past Saturday's results, as well as this coming week's slate of games (rankings are AP):

Week 7 results:

Illinois 24 Rutgers 7

Minnesota 31 Maryland 10

Iowa 49 Purdue 35
#10 Nebraska 27 Indiana 22

Northwestern 54 Michigan State 40

#2 Ohio State 30 #8 Wisconsin 23 (OT)

Byes:  #4 Michigan, Penn State

Week 8 schedule (all games are October 22; times listed are Eastern)

Rutgers at Minnesota (12 p.m.; ESPNU)
#10 Wisconsin at Iowa (12 p.m.; ESPN)
Indiana at Northwestern (12 p.m.; BTN)
Illinois at #3 Michigan (3:30 p.m.; BTN)
Purdue at #8 Nebraska (3:30 p.m.; ABC)
Michigan State at Maryland (7:30 p.m.; BTN)
#2 Ohio State at Penn State (8 p.m.; ABC)

Let's take a look at the bowl chances of each Big Ten team.  I'll list each team's current record (overall and conference), and then I'll break down each team's (1) remaining games by likely wins, likely losses, and toss-ups, (2) toughest remaining game, (3) probable regular season win total, with a range of three wins (this will not include the Big Ten Championship game or any postseason games), (4) analysis of the team, (5) how many more games they need to win to become bowl-eligible, (6) what it will take to make a bowl, and (7) for those teams that have clinched a bowl, the realistic best and worst case bowl scenarios.  For sake of ease, I'm just going to go in alphabetical order.

1.  Illinois

Record:  2-4 (1-2)

Remaining likely wins:  none

Remaining likely losses:  at Michigan (10/22), Michigan State (11/5), at Wisconsin (11/12), Iowa (11/19), at Northwestern (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  Minnesota (10/29)

Toughest remaining game:  at Michigan (10/22)

Probable win total:  2-4

Analysis:  The Illini beat Rutgers, which they probably needed to do to stave off any severe grumbling from Illinois fans about Lovie Smith.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  4

Will make a bowl if:  Rutgers is substituted for every other team they face.

2.  Indiana

Record:  3-3 (1-2)

Remaining likely wins:  Maryland (10/29), at Rutgers (11/5), Purdue (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  at Michigan (11/19)

Remaining toss-ups:  at Northwestern (10/22), Penn State (11/12)

Toughest remaining game:  at Michigan (11/19)

Probable win total:  6-8

Analysis:  Like I mentioned above, the Hoosiers gave Nebraska a run for their money, but came up short.  Other than a couple fluke plays -- an amazing long catch by WR Brandon Reilly and a pick six in the first quarter, and a 72-yard TD pass in the fourth quarter where IU's DBs knocked each other down -- the Hoosiers should have beaten the Huskers.  I hate moral victories, but there is at least some solace in playing well against top 10 teams in back to back weeks.  The schedule lightens up over the next few weeks, although nothing can be taken for granted.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  3

Will make a bowl if:  their defense continues to play well.

3.  Iowa

Record:  5-2 (3-1)

Remaining likely wins:  at Illinois (11/19), Nebraska (11/25)

Remaining likely losses:  Wisconsin (10/22), at Penn State (11/5), Michigan (11/12)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  Michigan (11/12)

Probable win total:  7-9

Analysis:  After taking care of business against Purdue, the Hawkeyes face a huge game this Saturday against #10 Wisconsin at home.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  1

Will make a bowl if:  they beat Illinois on November 19.

4.  Maryland

2016 record:  4-2 (1-2)

Remaining likely wins:  Rutgers (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  at Indiana (10/29), at Michigan (11/5), Ohio State (11/12), at Nebraska (11/19)

Remaining toss-ups:  Michigan State (10/22)

Toughest remaining game:  at Michigan (11/5)

Probable win total:  5-7

Analysis:  After starting 4-0, the Terps have been thumped by 20+ points in consecutive weeks.  Last Saturday's loss to Minnesota at home hurts, but a reeling Michigan State team comes to College Park this Saturday for a night game.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  2

Will make a bowl if:  they beat Michigan State and Rutgers.

5.  Michigan

2016 record:  6-0 (3-0)

Remaining likely wins:  Illinois (10/22), at Michigan State (10/29), Maryland (11/5), at Iowa (11/12), Indiana (11/19)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  at Ohio State (11/26)

Toughest remaining game:  at Ohio State (11/26)

Probable win total:  10-12

Analysis:  They had a bye last week, with a laughable game against Illinois at the Big House this week.

Best case bowl scenario:  College Football Playoff

Worst case bowl scenario:  Holiday Bowl

6.  Michigan State

2016 record:  2-4 (0-3)

Remaining likely wins:  at Illinois (11/5), Rutgers (11/12) 

Remaining likely losses:  Michigan (10/29), Ohio State (11/19)

Remaining toss-ups:  at Maryland (10/22), at Penn State (11/26) 

Toughest remaining game:  Ohio State (11/19)

Probable win total:  4-6

Analysis:  Dear Zeus, the Spartans are in all-out free fall mode, giving up 54 points at home to a mediocre Northwestern team.  MSU has now lost four games in a row.  With how they have been playing the last month, they might not make a bowl this year.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  4

Will make a bowl if:  they remember that they won the Big Ten last year.

7.  Minnesota

2016 record:  4-2 (1-2)

Remaining likely wins:  Rutgers (10/22), Purdue (11/5)

Remaining likely losses:  at Nebraska (11/12), at Wisconsin (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  at Illinois (10/29), Northwestern (11/19)

Toughest remaining game:  at Wisconsin (11/26)

Probable win total:  5-7

Analysis:  The Gophers made the most of their trip to Maryland, trouncing the Terps 31-10.  Given their remaining schedule, that may be enough to put Minnesota in a bowl.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  2

Will make a bowl if:  they can win two out of their next three games against the bottom of the league (Rutgers, Illinois, and Purdue)

8.  Nebraska

2016 record:  6-0 (3-0)

Remaining likely wins:  Purdue (10/22), Minnesota (11/12), Maryland (11/19)

Remaining likely losses:  at Wisconsin (10/29), at Ohio State (11/5), at Iowa (11/25)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  at Ohio State (11/5)

Probable win total:  9-11

Analysis:  The Huskers held on for a win against IU in Bloomington to clinch bowl eligibility.  Sitting at #8 in the AP poll, the Huskers have bigger goals.  After the hapless Boilermakers come to Lincoln this weekend, the Huskers play two brutal road games in a row, first at Wisconsin and then at Ohio State.

Best case bowl scenario:  At-large bid to BCS bowl

Worst case bowl scenario:  Music City Bowl

9.  Northwestern

2016 record:  3-3 (1-1)

Remaining likely wins:  Purdue (11/12), Illinois (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  at Ohio State (10/29), Wisconsin (11/5)

Remaining toss-ups:  Indiana (10/22), at Minnesota (11/19)

Toughest remaining game:  at Ohio State (10/29)

Probable win total:  5-7

Analysis:  The Wildcats marched into East Lansing and stomped on the Spartans, which was a big win for Northwestern's bowl hopes.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  3

Will make a bowl if:  they beat either Indiana or Minnesota.

10.  Ohio State

2016 record:  6-0 (3-0)

Remaining likely wins:  at Penn State (10/22), Northwestern (10/29), Nebraska (11/5), at Maryland (11/12), at Michigan State (11/19)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  Michigan (11/26)

Toughest remaining game:  Michigan (11/26)

Probable win total:  10-12

Analysis:  The Buckeyes passed what may have been their hardest test of the year -- a trip to Camp Randall for a primetime game.  After getting down by double digits, OSU fought back to force overtime, winning 30-23 and clinching bowl eligibility.  Given their remaining schedule, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which the Buckeyes do any worse than a BCS bid.

Best case bowl scenario:  College Football Playoff

Worst case bowl scenario:  At-large bid to BCS bowl

11.  Penn State

2016 record:  4-2 (2-1)

Remaining likely wins:  at Purdue (10/29), at Rutgers (11/19)

Remaining likely losses:  Ohio State (10/22), Michigan State (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  Iowa (11/5), at Indiana (11/12)

Toughest remaining game:  Ohio State (10/22)

Probable win total:  6-8

Analysis:  After a bye, the Nittany Lions face their biggest challenge of the year -- a visit from Ohio State.  It's the second primetime ABC road game in a row for the Buckeyes.  If Penn State can somehow pull off an upset, that would be huge.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  2

Will make a bowl if:  they play Purdue and Rutgers.

12.  Purdue

2016 record:  3-3 (1-2)

Remaining likely wins:  none

Remaining likely losses:  at Nebraska (10/22), Penn State (10/29), at Minnesota (11/5), Northwestern (11/12), Wisconsin (11/19), at Indiana (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  Wisconsin (11/19)

Probable win total:  3-4

Analysis:  Purdue sucks.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  3

Will make a bowl if:  West Lafayette stops stinking so damn much.

13.  Rutgers

2016 record:  2-5 (0-5)

Remaining likely wins:  none

Remaining likely losses:  at Minnesota (10/22), Indiana (11/5), at Michigan State (11/12), Penn State (11/19), at Maryland (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  at Michigan State (11/12)

Probable win total:  2-3

Analysis:  The Scarlet Knights scored 7 points this past Saturday against Illinois, which is exactly 7 more points than they scored the previous two weeks combined.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  4

Will make a bowl if:  I start rooting for the Cubs.

14.  Wisconsin

2016 record:  4-2 (1-2)

Remaining likely wins:  at Iowa (10/22), Nebraska (10/29), at Northwestern (11/5), Illinois (11/12), at Purdue (11/19), Minnesota (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  at Iowa (10/22)

Probable win total:  8-10

Analysis:  Saturday's loss to OSU was a heartbreaker, and the Badgers' second loss of the season -- both to top 5 teams by 7 points.  They can't overlook their trip to Iowa City this weekend.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  2

Will make a bowl if:  they show up for the next six Saturdays to play some football.