This past Saturday, the Hoosiers came from behind to beat a pesky Rutgers team, 33-27, to get within one win of bowl eligibility. In the biggest Big Ten game of the weekend, #6 Ohio State trounced #10 Nebraska, 62-3, in Columbus. It was especially rough for the Huskers, as their starting QB Tommy Armstrong was carted off the field after suffering a concussion (and is day-to-day, going through the concussion protocol). Elsewhere, Wisconsin beat Northwester, Penn State murdered Iowa, Minnesota beat Purdue, and Illinois beat Michigan State.
Two teams lost their 7th game, making them ineligible for bowl berths. Rutgers is no surprise. Michigan State, however, lost to hapless Illinois, 31-27, in Champaign. How a team goes from being in the College Football Playoff (and three 11+-win seasons in a row) to a losing record in one year is a question Mark Dantonio and his staff are going to have to answer. This is the first time in Dantonio's ten seasons at the helm in East Lansing that the Spartans will not be going to a bowl, and with remaining games against Ohio State and Penn State, there is the very real possibility that MSU will have its first 9-loss season since 1982, the last year under Muddy Waters (the college football coach, not McKinley Morganfield).
Two teams lost their 7th game, making them ineligible for bowl berths. Rutgers is no surprise. Michigan State, however, lost to hapless Illinois, 31-27, in Champaign. How a team goes from being in the College Football Playoff (and three 11+-win seasons in a row) to a losing record in one year is a question Mark Dantonio and his staff are going to have to answer. This is the first time in Dantonio's ten seasons at the helm in East Lansing that the Spartans will not be going to a bowl, and with remaining games against Ohio State and Penn State, there is the very real possibility that MSU will have its first 9-loss season since 1982, the last year under Muddy Waters (the college football coach, not McKinley Morganfield).
Here are this past Saturday's results, as well as this coming week's slate of games (rankings are CFP):
Week 10 results:
Indiana 33 Rutgers 27
Illinois 31 Michigan State 27
#8 Wisconsin 21 Northwestern 7
#3 Michigan 59 Maryland 3
Minnesota 44 Purdue 31
#12 Penn State 41 Iowa 14
#6 Ohio State 62 #10 Nebraska 3
Illinois 31 Michigan State 27
#8 Wisconsin 21 Northwestern 7
#3 Michigan 59 Maryland 3
Minnesota 44 Purdue 31
#12 Penn State 41 Iowa 14
#6 Ohio State 62 #10 Nebraska 3
Week 11 schedule (all games are November 12; times listed are Eastern)
#10 Penn State at Indiana (12 p.m.; ABC/ESPN2)
Rutgers at Michigan State (12 p.m.; BTN)
Northwestern at Purdue (12 p.m.; BTN)
Illinois at #7 Wisconsin (3:30 p.m.; ESPN2)
#5 Ohio State at Maryland (3:30 p.m.; ESPN)
Minnesota at #19 Nebraska (7:30 p.m.; BTN)
#3 Michigan at Iowa (8 p.m.; ABC)
#10 Penn State at Indiana (12 p.m.; ABC/ESPN2)
Rutgers at Michigan State (12 p.m.; BTN)
Northwestern at Purdue (12 p.m.; BTN)
Illinois at #7 Wisconsin (3:30 p.m.; ESPN2)
#5 Ohio State at Maryland (3:30 p.m.; ESPN)
Minnesota at #19 Nebraska (7:30 p.m.; BTN)
#3 Michigan at Iowa (8 p.m.; ABC)
Let's take a look at the bowl chances of each Big Ten team. I'll list each team's current record (overall and conference), and then I'll break down each team's (1) remaining games by likely wins, likely losses, and toss-ups, (2) toughest remaining game, (3) probable regular season win total, with a range of three wins (this will not include the Big Ten Championship game or any postseason games), (4) analysis of the team, (5) how many more games they need to win to become bowl-eligible, (6) what it will take to make a bowl, and (7) for those teams that have clinched a bowl, the realistic best and worst case bowl scenarios. The schools that have lost at least 7 games and, therefore, are not eligible to go to a bowl, are separated and listed after those schools that still have hope. For sake of ease, I'm just going to go in alphabetical order.
1. Illinois
Record: 3-6 (2-4)
Remaining likely wins: none
Remaining likely losses: at Wisconsin (11/12), Iowa (11/19), at Northwestern (11/26)
Remaining toss-ups: none
Toughest remaining game:
Probable win total: 3-4
Analysis: The Illini eked out a win against Michigan State to stave off bowl-eligibility elimiation. With a trip to Camp Randall this weekend, the party is likely officially over for Lovie Smith in his first year in Champaign.
Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible: 3
Will make a bowl if: Hillary Clinton wins all of the swing states.
2. Indiana
Record: 5-4 (3-3)
Remaining likely wins: Purdue (11/26)
Remaining likely losses: at Michigan (11/19)
Remaining toss-ups: Penn State (11/12)
Toughest remaining game:
Probable win total: 6-7
Analysis: The Hoosiers got a scare from Rutgers, but overcame an 11-point third quarter deficit in Piscataway to come out on top, 33-27. A win is a win, and that puts IU one win from bowl eligibility, and it would be the first time since 1990-1991 that the Hoosiers went to bowls in back to back years. #10 Penn State visits Bloomington this Saturday, and I think it's going to be closer than most expect.
Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible: 1
Will make a bowl if: they beat Purdue.
3. Iowa
Record: 5-4 (3-3)
Remaining likely wins: at Illinois (11/19),
Remaining likely losses: Michigan (11/12)
Remaining toss-ups:
Toughest remaining game: Michigan (11/12)
Probable win total: 7-8
Analysis: The Hawkeyes must shake off that 41-14 drubbing by Penn state, as Michigan comes to Kinnick Stadium for the ABC night game this Saturday. Iowa still needs one more win to clinch bowl eligibility, and an upset of Michigan this weekend would be massive. Even if they don't win, they still have Illinois on the scheduled next week.
Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible: 1
Will make a bowl if: they beat Illinois on November 19.
4. Maryland
2016 record: 5-4 (2-4)
Remaining likely wins: Rutgers (11/26)
Remaining likely losses: Ohio State (11/12), at Nebraska (11/19)
Remaining toss-ups:
Toughest remaining game:
Probable win total: 5-7
Analysis: The Terps got absolutely annihilated by Michigan, 59-3, and have now lost 4 out of 5 since starting 4-0. And now they get Ohio State, before a trip to Lincoln to face Nebraska. Again, not all hope is lost. Given Maryland's schedule, a sixth win may have to wait until their final game against Rutgers on November 26.
Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible: 1
Will make a bowl if: they beat Rutgers or shock the world before then.
5. Michigan
2016 record: 9-0 (6-0)
Remaining likely wins: at Iowa (11/12), Indiana (11/19)
Remaining likely losses: none
Remaining toss-ups: at Ohio State (11/26)
Toughest remaining game: at Ohio State (11/26)
Probable win total: 11-12
Analysis: The Wolverines keep chugging along and whipping inferior opponents. They can't afford to overlook their trip to Iowa City this weekend, though.
Best case bowl scenario: College Football Playoff
Worst case bowl scenario: Outback Bowl
6. Minnesota
2016 record: 7-2 (4-2)
Remaining likely wins: none
Remaining likely losses: at Nebraska (11/12), at Wisconsin (11/26)
Remaining toss-ups: Northwestern (11/19)
Toughest remaining game: at Wisconsin (11/26)
Probable win total: 7-8
Analysis: The Gophers won their seventh game, which is huge. They actually control their own destiny in the Big Ten West. Unfortunately, they have a pretty tough schedule remaining, with a trip to Lincoln this weekend to take on Nebraska. That said, if Tommy Armstrong (concussion) can't play for the Huskers, all bets are off.
Best case bowl scenario: Holiday Bowl
Worst case bowl scenario: Foster Farms Bowl
7. Nebraska
2016 record: 7-2 (4-2)
Remaining likely wins: Minnesota (11/12), Maryland (11/19)
Remaining likely losses: none
Remaining toss-ups:
Toughest remaining game:
Probable win total: 8-10
Analysis: The Huskers lost second in a row, getting thoroughly beaten down by Ohio State and losing QB Tommy Armstrong to a concussion in the process. With that loss, I think Nebraska's chances of going to a New Years Six bowl probably went out the window.
Best case bowl scenario: Outback Bowl
Worst case bowl scenario: Music City Bowl
8. Northwestern
2016 record: 4-5 (2-3)
Remaining likely wins: Purdue (11/12), Illinois (11/26)
Remaining likely losses: none
Remaining toss-ups: at Minnesota (11/19)
Toughest remaining game: at Minnesota (11/19)
Probable win total: 6-7
Analysis: The Wildcats lost to another ranked team (Wisconsin) this past weekend, but a visit from Purdue is just what the doctor ordered.
Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible: 2
Will make a bowl if: the beat Purdue and Illinois.
9. Ohio State
2016 record: 8-1 (5-1)
Remaining likely wins: at Maryland (11/12),
Remaining likely losses: none
Remaining toss-ups: Michigan (11/26)
Toughest remaining game:
Probable win total: 11-12
Analysis: The Buckeyes moved up to #5 in the CFP rankings with their destruction of Nebraska. They now have two very winnable games before the big matchup with Michigan in the last week of the regular season.
Best case bowl scenario: College Football Playoff
Worst case bowl scenario: Citrus Bowl
10. Penn State
2016 record: 8-2 (5-1)
Remaining likely wins: at Rutgers (11/19),
Remaining likely losses: none
Remaining toss-ups: at Indiana (11/12)
Toughest remaining game:
Probable win total: 10-11
Analysis: The Nittany Lions rolled up on Iowa for their 8th win. If they can get past Indiana this Saturday, they are likely to win the rest of their games, ending up at 8-1 in the Big Ten. Again, if they win out, Ohio State wins out, and Michigan either loses to Ohio State or loses twice, then there would either be a two-way or three-way tie at the top of the Big Ten East. If it's a tie between OSU and PSU, PSU would have the tiebreaker because of their win over OSU. If it's a three-way tie between Michigan, OSU, and PSU, it would come down to other tiebreakers, and maybe even a random draw.
Best case bowl scenario: At-large bid to New Years Six bowl
Worst case bowl scenario: Music City Bowl
11. Purdue
2016 record: 3-6 (1-5)
Remaining likely wins: none
Remaining likely losses: Northwestern (11/12), Wisconsin (11/19), at Indiana (11/26)
Remaining toss-ups: none
Toughest remaining game: Wisconsin (11/19)
Probable win total: 3-4
Analysis: Purdue continues to meet expectations of inefficacy.
Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible: 3
Will make a bowl if: Donald Trump declares his candicacy a hoax and, despite his election win, concedes to Hillary Clinton.
12. Wisconsin
2016 record: 7-2 (4-2)
Remaining likely wins: Illinois (11/12), at Purdue (11/19), Minnesota (11/26)
Remaining likely losses: none
Remaining toss-ups: none
Toughest remaining game: Minnesota (11/26)
Probable win total: 9-10
Analysis: With Illinois, Purdue, and Minnesota on the slate, the Badgers look primed for a New Years Six bowl, and they have an outside shot at the College Football Playoffs if they can win the Big Ten title game.
Best case bowl scenario: At-large bid to New Years Six bowl
Worst case bowl scenario: Music City Bowl
Teams who are ineligible for bowls: Michigan State, Rutgers
Teams who are ineligible for bowls: Michigan State, Rutgers
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