Big Ten Bowl Hopefuls After Week 9

This past Saturday, the Hoosiers finally put together a full game, topping Maryland at home 42-36, behind three 100-yard rushers (Devine Redding, Tyler Natee, and Zander Diamont).  IU needed that win to get a step closer to bowl eligibility.  Elsewhere, Northwestern gave Ohio State a run for its money in Columbus, falling short 24-20.  In the night game, Nebraska took Wisconsin to OT before the Badgers pulled out a 23-17 win, keeping them in the hunt for the Big Ten West title.  As a reward for their effort, the Cornhuskers get to play in another primetime game against Ohio State in the Horseshoe.  Also, Minnesota, Penn State, and Wisconsin all won their sixth games, thus becoming bowl-eligible.

Here are this past Saturday's results, as well as this coming week's slate of games (rankings for Week 9 are AP and for Week 10 are CFP):

Week 9 results:

Minnesota 40 Illinois 17
#2 Michigan 32 Michigan State 23
#24 Penn State 62 Purdue 24
#6 Ohio State 24 Northwestern 20
Indiana 42 Maryland 36
#11 Wisconsin 23 #7 Nebraska 17 (OT)
Byes:  Iowa, Rutgers

Week 10 schedule (all games are November 5; times listed are Eastern)
Indiana at Rutgers (12 p.m.; BTN)
Michigan State at Illinois (12 p.m.; ESPNews)
#8 Wisconsin at Northwestern (12 p.m.; ABC)
Maryland at #3 Michigan (3:30 p.m.; ESPN)
Purdue at Minnesota (3:30 p.m.; BTN)
Iowa at #12 Penn State (7:30 p.m.; BTN)
#10 Nebraska at #6 Ohio State (8 p.m.; ABC)

Let's take a look at the bowl chances of each Big Ten team.  I'll list each team's current record (overall and conference), and then I'll break down each team's (1) remaining games by likely wins, likely losses, and toss-ups, (2) toughest remaining game, (3) probable regular season win total, with a range of three wins (this will not include the Big Ten Championship game or any postseason games), (4) analysis of the team, (5) how many more games they need to win to become bowl-eligible, (6) what it will take to make a bowl, and (7) for those teams that have clinched a bowl, the realistic best and worst case bowl scenarios.  For sake of ease, I'm just going to go in alphabetical order.

1.  Illinois

Record:  2-6 (1-4)

Remaining likely wins:  none

Remaining likely losses:  Michigan State (11/5), Iowa (11/19), at Northwestern (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  at Wisconsin (11/12)

Probable win total:  2-4

Analysis:  The Illini got killed again, taking it on the chin 40-17 at the hands of Minnesota.  They welcome the still-reeling Michigan State Spartans to Memorial Stadium this Saturday in a bowl-eligibility elimination game.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  4

Will make a bowl if:  they, cough, win out.

2.  Indiana

Record:  4-4 (2-3)

Remaining likely wins:  at Rutgers (11/5), Purdue (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  at Michigan (11/19)

Remaining toss-ups:  Penn State (11/12)

Toughest remaining game:  at Michigan (11/19)

Probable win total:  6-8

Analysis:  That's more like it.  IU put together a full game, even thought the defense gave up 36 points.  Most importantly, it was the Hoosiers' fourth win, with a trip to Rutgers this Saturday and Purdue at home to end the year.  Those should be wins.  I'm also not too scared of Penn State, which visits Bloomington a week from Saturday.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  2

Will make a bowl if:  they beat Rutgers and Purdue.

3.  Iowa

Record:  5-3 (3-2)

Remaining likely wins:  at Illinois (11/19), Nebraska (11/25)

Remaining likely losses:  at Penn State (11/5), Michigan (11/12)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  Michigan (11/12)

Probable win total:  7-9

Analysis:  The Hawkeyes had a bye last week, and they will visit Penn State this Saturday, needing only one more win to become bowl-eligible.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  1

Will make a bowl if:  they beat Illinois on November 19.

4.  Maryland

2016 record:  5-3 (2-3)

Remaining likely wins:  Rutgers (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  at Michigan (11/5), Ohio State (11/12), at Nebraska (11/19)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  at Michigan (11/5)

Probable win total:  5-7

Analysis:  The Terps put up a good fight at Indiana, but came up short, losing 42-36 (although their last TD came as time expired).  They now have to travel to Ann Arbor for a date with the Wolverines.  Again, given Maryland's schedule, a sixth win may have to wait until their final game against Rutgers on November 26.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  1

Will make a bowl if:  they beat Rutgers or shock the world before then.

5.  Michigan

2016 record:  8-0 (5-0)

Remaining likely wins:  Maryland (11/5), at Iowa (11/12), Indiana (11/19)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  at Ohio State (11/26)

Toughest remaining game:  at Ohio State (11/26)

Probable win total:  10-12

Analysis:  Sparty gave the Wolverines a better run for their money than expected, as Michigan pulled out a 32-23 win.  Michigan is still in solid position to set up a battle for the Big Ten East title on November 26 in Columbus.

Best case bowl scenario:  College Football Playoff

Worst case bowl scenario:  Outback Bowl

6.  Michigan State

2016 record:  2-6 (0-5)

Remaining likely wins:  at Illinois (11/5), Rutgers (11/12) 

Remaining likely losses:  Ohio State (11/19), at Penn State (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:   none

Toughest remaining game:  Ohio State (11/19)

Probable win total:  4-6

Analysis:  If you would have told me at the beginning of the season that Michigan State's visit to Champaign to play Illinois on November 5 would be a bowl-eligibility elimination game, I would have punched you square in the dick or pussy.  This season has been nothing short of an unmitigated disaster in East Lansing, and the Spartans will have to beat Ohio State and Penn State if they want to go to a bowl.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  4

Will make a bowl if:  they win the rest of their games.

7.  Minnesota

2016 record:  6-2 (3-2)

Remaining likely wins:  Purdue (11/5)

Remaining likely losses:  at Nebraska (11/12), at Wisconsin (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  Northwestern (11/19)

Toughest remaining game:  at Wisconsin (11/26)

Probable win total:  7-9

Analysis:  The Gophers stomped on Illinois to claim bowl eligibility in Tracy Claeys's first full season as head coach.  With a couple more winnable games left, it could be a very good season for Minnesota.

Best case bowl scenario:  Holiday Bowl

Worst case bowl scenario:  Foster Farms Bowl

8.  Nebraska

2016 record:  7-1 (4-1)

Remaining likely wins:  Minnesota (11/12), Maryland (11/19)

Remaining likely losses:  at Ohio State (11/5), at Iowa (11/25)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  at Ohio State (11/5)

Probable win total:  9-11

Analysis:  The Huskers lost their first game of the season, a heartbreaker in OT at Wisconsin.  It's not a bad loss by any means, and Nebraska was still in the top 10 in the first College Football Playoff rankings.  The Huskers have their second tough game in a row, as they head to Columbus this Saturday to play Ohio State.

Best case bowl scenario:  At-large bid to BCS bowl

Worst case bowl scenario:  Music City Bowl

9.  Northwestern

2016 record:  4-4 (2-2)

Remaining likely wins:  Purdue (11/12), Illinois (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  Wisconsin (11/5)

Remaining toss-ups:  at Minnesota (11/19)

Toughest remaining game:  Wisconsin (11/5)

Probable win total:  6-8

Analysis:  The Wildcats gave Ohio State all it could handle, but couldn't quite get over the hump, losing 24-20.  It was a good showing for Northwestern, though, and perhaps they can use it as momentum when Wisconsin comes to Ryan Field this Saturday.  Beyond that, Purdue and Illinois are still on the schedule, so Pat Fitzgerald should be going bowling for the seventh time as Northwestern's head coach.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  2

Will make a bowl if:  the beat Purdue and Illinois.

10.  Ohio State

2016 record:  6-1 (3-1)

Remaining likely wins:  Northwestern (10/29), Nebraska (11/5), at Maryland (11/12), at Michigan State (11/19)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  Michigan (11/26)

Toughest remaining game:  Michigan (11/26)

Probable win total:  10-12

Analysis:  Calm down, Buckeyes fans.  The world has not ended, despite Ohio State's loss to Penn State this past Saturday.  I still think the Buckeyes can make the College Football Playoff if they win out in the regular season and win the Big Ten title game.  Of course, one more loss would likely mean that Ohio State would be relegated to a BCS bowl or, gulp, a non-BCS New Years Day bowl.

Best case bowl scenario:  College Football Playoff

Worst case bowl scenario:  Citrus Bowl

11.  Penn State

2016 record:  6-2 (4-1)

Remaining likely wins:  at Rutgers (11/19), Michigan State (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  Iowa (11/5), at Indiana (11/12)

Toughest remaining game:  Iowa (11/5)

Probable win total:  8-10

Analysis:  The Nittany Lions murdered Purdue to clinch bowl eligibility.  It was also good enough to get them ranked #12 in the first CFP rankings.  Again, if they win out, Ohio State wins out, and Michigan either loses to Ohio State or loses twice, then there would either be a two-way or three-way tie at the top of the Big Ten East.  If it's a tie between OSU and PSU, PSU would have the tiebreaker because of their win over OSU.  If it's a three-way tie between Michigan, OSU, and PSU, it would come down to other tiebreakers, and maybe even a random draw.

Best case bowl scenario:  At-large BCS bowl

Worst case bowl scenario:  Music City Bowl

12.  Purdue

2016 record:  3-5 (1-4)

Remaining likely wins:  none

Remaining likely losses:  at Minnesota (11/5), Northwestern (11/12), Wisconsin (11/19), at Indiana (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  Wisconsin (11/19)

Probable win total:  3-4

Analysis:  Purdue continues to suck.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  3

Will make a bowl if:  I start hating Halloween.

13.  Rutgers

2016 record:  2-6 (0-5)

Remaining likely wins:  none

Remaining likely losses:  Indiana (11/5), at Michigan State (11/12), Penn State (11/19), at Maryland (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  at Michigan State (11/12)

Probable win total:  2-3

Analysis:  For the first Saturday since September 17, the Scarlet Knights didn't lose a game.  Of course, they had a bye, so that helps.  One more loss, and Rutgers will officially be knocked out of bowl eligibility.  Hopefully, that will happen this Saturday, as IU visits Piscataway. 

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  4

Will make a bowl if:  the Devils move back to Denver tomorrow and change their name back to the Colorado Rockies, and then move back to Kansas City on Friday and change their name back to the Kansas City Scouts.

14.  Wisconsin

2016 record:  6-2 (2-2)

Remaining likely wins:  at Northwestern (11/5), Illinois (11/12), at Purdue (11/19), Minnesota (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  at Northwestern (11/5)

Probable win total:  8-10

Analysis:  The Badgers pulled out a nail biter at home against Nebraska, winning 23-17 in OT.  With the win, Wisconsin became bowl-eligible, and they are one of five Big Ten teams in the top 12 of the first CFP rankings, sitting at #8.  From here on out, it should be relatively smooth sailing, with Northwestern, Illinois, Purdue, and Minnesota on the slate.

Best case bowl scenario:  At-large bid to BCS bowl

Worst case bowl scenario:  Music City Bowl