Big Ten Bowl Hopefuls After Week 11

This past Saturday, the Hoosiers put up a hell of a fight against #10 Penn State, but lost 45-31, after blowing a ten-point third quarter lead and then giving up a fumble return for a touchdown in the last minute of what would have undoubtedly been the game-tying drive.  Such is the life of the Indiana Hoosiers football team.  More importantly, #3 Michigan lost its first game of the year, a 14-13 heartbreaker at Iowa, which clinched bowl eligibility with the upset.  #5 Ohio State won its second game in a row by the score of 62-3, this time topping Maryland.  #19 Nebraska broke its two-game losing streak by beating Minnesota 24-17.  The Big Ten now has four teams in the top 8 of the CFP rankings (#2 Ohio State, #3 Michigan, #7 Wisconsin, and #8 Penn State).

Two more teams lost their 7th game, making them ineligible for bowl berths, as Purdue got stomped by Northwestern, 45-17, and Illinois got stomped even worse by Wisconsin, 48-3.  However, there is still the distinct possibility that ten Big Ten teams will go to bowls.

Here are this past Saturday's results, as well as this coming week's slate of games (rankings are CFP):

Week 11 results:

#10 Penn State 45 Indiana 31
Michigan State 49 Rutgers 0
Northwestern 45 Purdue 17
#7 Wisconsin 48 Illinois 3
#5 Ohio State 62 Maryland 3
#19 Nebraska 24 Minnesota 17
Iowa 14 #3 Michigan 13

Week 12 schedule (all games are November 12; times listed are Eastern)
#2 Ohio State at Michigan State (12 p.m.; ESPN)
Iowa at Illinois (12 p.m.; BTN)
Maryland at #18 Nebraska (12 p.m.; ESPNews)
#7 Wisconsin at Purdue (12 p.m.; ABC)
Indiana at #3 Michigan (3:30 p.m.; ESPN)
Northwestern at Minnesota (3:30 p.m.; BTN)
#8 Penn State at Rutgers (8 p.m.; BTN)

With only two games left, there are still eight teams left that have a shot at going to the Big Ten Championship game in Indianapolis on December 5.  In the East, Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State still have a shot.  In the West, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, and Northwestern all still have a shot.  I was going to try to figure out all the possible scenarios for each team to make it to the championship game, taking into account the Big Ten's divisional tiebreaking rules, but it turns out that would take much more time than I'm willing to commit at this point in the evening.  

That said, in the East, both Michigan and Penn State control their own destinies.  If either team wins its remaining two games, it will go to the Big Ten Championship game.  Ohio State, on the other hand, needs to win both of its games and hope that Penn State loses one of its remaining games.  Otherwise, the Buckeyes will be on the outside looking in on the Big Ten Championship game.

In the West, Wisconsin and Nebraska are both 5-2, while Minnesota, Iowa, and Northwestern are 4-3.  Wisconsin controls its own destiny and will win the Big Ten West if it wins its last two games.  Nebraska needs to win its last two games and hope that Wisconsin loses one of its final two games.  Minnesota, Iowa, and Northwestern need miracles.

Let's take a look at the bowl chances of each Big Ten team.  I'll list each team's current record (overall and conference), and then I'll break down each team's (1) remaining games by likely wins, likely losses, and toss-ups, (2) toughest remaining game, (3) probable regular season win total, with a range of wins (this will not include the Big Ten Championship game or any postseason games), (4) analysis of the team, (5) how many more games they need to win to become bowl-eligible, (6) what it will take to make a bowl, and (7) for those teams that have clinched a bowl, the realistic best and worst case bowl scenarios.  The schools that have lost at least 7 games and, therefore, are not eligible to go to a bowl, are separated and listed after those schools that still have hope.  For sake of ease, I'm just going to go in alphabetical order.

1.  Indiana

Record:  5-5 (3-4)

Remaining likely wins:  Purdue (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  at Michigan (11/19)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  at Michigan (11/19)

Probable win total:  6-7

Analysis:  The Hoosiers follow up a tough home loss to #10 Penn State by taking a trip to Ann Arbor to meet #3 Michigan in the Big House.  IU and Michigan went to two overtimes last year in Bloomington, before the Wolverines pulled out a 48-41 win.  I'd like the Hoosiers to shock the world Saturday.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  1

Will make a bowl if:  they beat Purdue, or they take advantage of a still-hurting Michigan team, to win in Ann Arbor for the first time since 1967.

2.  Iowa

Record:  6-4 (4-3)

Remaining likely wins:  at Illinois (11/19), 

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  Nebraska (11/25)

Toughest remaining game:  Nebraska (11/25)

Probable win total:  7-8

Analysis:  The Hawkeyes clinched bowl eligibility by pulling off one of the more shocking upsets of the year, topping #3 Michigan 14-13 on a last-second field goal.  The rushing of the field was warranted.

Best case bowl scenario:  Holiday Bowl

Worst case bowl scenario:  Heart of Dallas Bowl

3.  Maryland

2016 record:  5-5 (2-5)

Remaining likely wins:  Rutgers (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  at Nebraska (11/19)

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  at Nebraska (11/19)

Probable win total:  5-6

Analysis:  The Terps got the living shit kicked out of them for the second week in a row, losing 62-3 to Ohio State.  Maryland has now lost their last two games by a combined score of 123-6.  Their reward is a trip to Lincoln to face #18 Nebraska.  But let's not forget that the Terps still play Rutgers on November 26.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  1

Will make a bowl if:  they beat Rutgers.

4.  Michigan

2016 record:  9-1 (6-1)

Remaining likely wins:  Indiana (11/19)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  at Ohio State (11/26)

Toughest remaining game:  at Ohio State (11/26)

Probable win total:  10-11

Analysis:  The Wolverines tripped up, losing to Iowa, but they still control their own destiny in the Big Ten East -- until they lose to IU this Saturday, that is.

Best case bowl scenario:  College Football Playoff

Worst case bowl scenario:  Outback Bowl

5.  Minnesota

2016 record:  7-3 (4-3)

Remaining likely wins:  none

Remaining likely losses:  at Wisconsin (11/26)

Remaining toss-ups:  Northwestern (11/19)

Toughest remaining game:  at Wisconsin (11/26)

Probable win total:  7-8

Analysis:  The Gophers played tough against Nebraska, but fell short, 24-17.  They still have an outside shot at winning the Big Ten West, but that would involve winning their last two games, including beating Wisconsin in Madison in their final game.

Best case bowl scenario:  Holiday Bowl

Worst case bowl scenario:  Foster Farms Bowl

6.  Nebraska

2016 record:  8-2 (5-2)

Remaining likely wins:  Maryland (11/19)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  at Iowa (11/25)

Toughest remaining game:  at Iowa (11/25)

Probable win total:  9-10

Analysis:  The Huskers came back from a 7-point halftime deficit against Minnesota, shutting the Gophers out in the second half and winning 24-17.  They still have a chance to win the Big Ten West, which they would need to do to have a chance at a New Years Six bowl.

Best case bowl scenario: Outback Bowl

Worst case bowl scenario:  Music City Bowl

7.  Northwestern

2016 record:  5-5 (3-3)

Remaining likely wins:  Illinois (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  at Minnesota (11/19)

Toughest remaining game:  at Minnesota (11/19)

Probable win total:  6-7

Analysis:  The Wildcats beat up on Purdue to get within one win of bowl eligibility.  I haven't totally written off Northwestern's chances of beating Minnesota this weekend in Minneapolis, but even if that doesn't happen, a favorable last game against Illinois at Ryan Field should do the trick.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  1

Will make a bowl if:  they beat Illinois.

8.  Ohio State

2016 record:  9-1 (9-1)

Remaining likely wins:  at Michigan State (11/19)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  Michigan (11/26)

Toughest remaining game:  Michigan (11/26)

Probable win total:  10-11

Analysis:  The Buckeyes jumped up to #2 in the CFP rankings after drubbing Maryland.  They can't look past their trip to East Lansing this weekend just because the Spartans are 3-7.  

Best case bowl scenario:  College Football Playoff

Worst case bowl scenario:  Citrus Bowl

9.  Penn State

2016 record:  8-2 (6-1)

Remaining likely wins:  at Rutgers (11/19), Michigan State (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  Michigan State (11/26)

Probable win total:  10

Analysis:  The Nittany Lions topped IU, 45-31, and with Michigan's loss, Penn State controls its own destiny in the Big Ten East.  With two very winnable games left, it's looking like Penn State will be playing for the Big Ten championship in Indy.

Best case bowl scenario:  College Football Playoff

Worst case bowl scenario:  Holiday Bowl

10.  Wisconsin

2016 record:  8-2 (5-2)

Remaining likely wins:  at Purdue (11/19), Minnesota (11/26)

Remaining likely losses:  none

Remaining toss-ups:  none

Toughest remaining game:  Minnesota (11/26)

Probable win total:  10

Analysis:  With Purdue and Minnesota left, the Badgers should win the Big Ten West.  With a win in the Big Ten Title game, Wisconsin could go get into the College Football Playoffs, depending on how other things shake out.

Best case bowl scenario:  College Football Playoff

Worst case bowl scenario:  Citrus Bowl

Teams who are ineligible for bowls:  Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, Rutgers