Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Now that we are a little more than two weeks from the Big Ten Tournament, it seems to be time for my formerly annual attempt at predicting the Big Ten Tournament seeds, based on every team's remaining schedule, and each Big Ten team's chances of making the NCAA Tournament.  I haven't done this in a few years for reasons that are of no concern to you.

The Big Ten is by far the strongest conference in college basketball this year, with 12 of the league's 14 teams still having a realistic shot at making the NCAA Tournament.  Nine Big Ten teams have been ranked in the Top 25 in the AP and/or Coaches Polls at some point this season:  Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, and Rutgers.  And it's not exactly fluff either, as Big Ten teams hold eight of the top ten toughest schedules in the country, according to the BPI's strength of schedule indicator.  Rutgers is the only school in the Big Ten with a strength of schedule outside the Top 21 (and their SOS is 36).  Maybe -- just maybe -- this will be the year the Big Ten breaks its 20-year national championship drought.

But before we get ahead of ourselves, there is still the matter of the remaining conference season.  With between three and five games left for each team, Maryland has a two-game lead for the title, with five teams two games behind the Terps in the loss column.  On top of that, second through tenth place is separated by only two games, so we should be in for an exciting last two weeks of the Big Ten season. 

Next games

The next game takes place tonight (all times Eastern):

-Nebraska at Illinois (8:00 p.m.; BTN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Maryland (12-4):  at Minnesota (W); Michigan State (W); at Rutgers (L); Michigan (W)

2 (tie).  Iowa (10-6):  at Michigan State (L); Penn State (w); Purdue (W); at Illinois (L)

2 (tie).  Michigan State (10-6):  Iowa (W); at Maryland (L); at Penn State (L); Ohio State (W)

2 (tie).  Penn State (10-6):  Rutgers (W); at Iowa (L); Michigan State (W); at Northwestern (W)

2 (tie).  Wisconsin (10-6):  at Michigan (L); Minnesota (W); Northwestern (W); at Indiana (L)

6.  Illinois (9-6):  Nebraska (W); at Northwestern (W); Indiana (L); at Ohio State (L); Iowa (W)

7.  Michigan (9-7):  Wisconsin (W); at Ohio State (L); Nebraska (W); at Maryland (L)

8.  Rutgers (9-8):  at Penn State (L); Maryland (W); at Purdue (L)

9 (tie).  Indiana (8-8):  at Purdue (L); at Illinois (W); Minnesota (W); Wisconsin (W)

9 (tie).  Ohio State (8-8):  at Nebraska (W); Michigan (W); Illinois (W); at Michigan State (L)

11.  Minnesota (7-9):  Maryland (L); at Wisconsin (L); at Indiana (L); Nebraska (W)

12.  Purdue (7-10):  Indiana (W); at Iowa (L); Rutgers (W)

13.  Nebraska (2-13):  at Illinois (L); Ohio State (L); Northwestern (W); at Michigan (L); at Minnesota (L)

14.  Northwestern (1-15):  Illinois (L); at Nebraska (L); at Wisconsin (L); Penn State (L)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Maryland (15-5)

2.  Penn State (13-7)

3.  Michigan State (12-8) (will have tiebreaker over Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin based on 4-1 record vs. other three teams, with Iowa having 2-2 record, Illinois having 2-3 record, and Wisconsin having 1-3 record)
4.  Iowa (12-8)

5.  Illinois (12-8)

6.  Wisconsin (12-8)

7.  Ohio State (11-9) (will have tiebreaker over IU and Michigan based on 3-1 record vs. both teams, while IU and Michigan both have 1-2 record vs. other two teams)

8.  Indiana (11-9)  (will have tiebreaker over Michigan based on better record vs. Penn State)

9.  Michigan (11-9)

10.  Rutgers (10-10)

11.  Purdue (9-11)

12.  Minnesota (8-12)
13.  Nebraska (3-15)

14.  Northwestern (1-19)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

In the past, I have also included far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, but, like the last couple years, I'm not even going to try to do that this year until the seeds are more finalized.  However, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 11 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (6 p.m. BTN)

(11) vs. (14) (8:30 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 12 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Friday March 13 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 14 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 15 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's BPI ranking (based on ESPN's BPI rankings), NET ranking (based on the NCAA's NET rankings), overall record against D-1 opponents, BPI strength of schedule, NET Quadrant 1/2 record, Quadrant 1 wins, Quadrant 2 wins, and Quadrant 3/4 losses (for an explanation of the NET rankings and the Quadrants, click here).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  For the "In" and "Out" teams, I'm putting them in order based on NET ranking.  For the "Bubble" teams, I am putting them in order based on what I think their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament is (which may or may not fall in line with the NET or BPI rankings).  For the "Out" teams, I'm just listing the BPI and NET ranking, since their quality wins or bad losses are pretty much irrelevant given their records.

In

1.  Maryland

BPI:  12

NET ranking:  10
Overall record:  22-5
BPI strength of schedule:  21

Quadrant 1/2 record: 11-5 (losses:  at Penn State, at Seton Hall, at Iowa, at Wisconsin, at Ohio State)

Quadrant 1 wins:  6 - Marquette*, Ohio State, at Indiana, Iowa, at Illinois, at Michigan State
Quadrant 2 wins:  5 - Rhode Island, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Rutgers

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  None

2.  Michigan State

BPI:  4

NET ranking:  13

Overall record:  18-9

BPI strength of schedule:  10

Quadrant 1/2 record: 10-9 (losses:  Kentucky*, Virginia Tech*, Duke, at Purdue, at Indiana, at Wisconsin, Penn State, at Michigan, Maryland)

Quadrant 1 wins: 5 - at Seton Hall, Michigan, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, at Illinois
Quadrant 2 wins:  5 - Georgia*, UCLA*, Rutgers, Illinois, Minnesota

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  None

3.  Ohio State

BPI:  11

NET ranking:  19

Overall record:  18-9

BPI strength of schedule:  9

Quadrant 1/2 record:  10-9 (losses:  at Minnesota, West Virginia*, Wisconsin, at Maryland, at Indiana, at Penn State, Minnesota, at Wisconsin, at Iowa)

Quadrant 1 wins:  5 - Villanova, Penn State, Kentucky*, at Michigan, Maryland
Quadrant 2 wins:  5 - Cincinnati, at North Carolina, Indiana, Rutgers, Purdue

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  None

4.  Michigan

BPI:  14

NET ranking:  22

Overall record:  18-9

BPI strength of schedule:  2

Quadrant 1/2 record:  11-9 (losses:  at Louisville, at Illinois, Oregon, at Michigan State, at Minnesota, at Iowa, Penn State, Illinois, Ohio State)

Quadrant 1 wins:  7 - Creighton, Gonzaga*, Iowa, Rutgers*, Michigan State, at Rutgers, at Purdue
Quadrant 2 wins:  4 - Iowa State*, North Carolina*, Purdue, Indiana

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  None

5.  Penn State

BPI:  20

NET ranking:  25

Overall record:  20-7

BPI strength of schedule:  19

Quadrant 1/2 record:  12-7 (losses:  Mississippi*, at Ohio State, at Rutgers, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, Illinois, at Indiana)

Quadrant 1 wins:  7 - at Georgetown, Maryland, Iowa*, Ohio State, at Michigan, at Michigan State, at Purdue
Quadrant 2 wins:  5 - Yale, Syracuse*, Alabama, Indiana, Minnesota

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  None

6.  Iowa

BPI:  25

NET ranking:  27

Overall record:  19-8

BPI strength of schedule:  8

Quadrant 1/2 record:  12-7 (losses:  DePaul, San Diego State*, at Michigan, at Maryland, at Purdue, at Indiana)

Quadrant 1 wins:  7 - Texas Tech*, at Syracuse, Maryland, Michigan, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, Ohio State
Quadrant 2 wins:  5 - Minnesota, at Iowa State, Cincinnati*, Rutgers, Illinois

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  1 - at Nebraska

7.  Wisconsin

BPI:  26

NET ranking:  29

Overall record:  17-10

BPI strength of schedule:  4

Quadrant 1/2 record:  10-9 (losses:  St. Mary's*, Richmond*, at NC State, at Rutgers, Illinois, at Michigan State, at Purdue, at Iowa, at Minnesota)

Quadrant 1 wins:  7 - Marquette, at Tennessee, at Ohio State, at Penn State, Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State
Quadrant 2 wins:  3 - Indiana, Purdue, Rutgers

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  1 - New Mexico*

8.  Rutgers

BPI:  34

NET ranking:  34

Overall record:  18-10

BPI strength of schedule:  36

Quadrant 1/2 record:  7-9 (losses:  at Pittsburgh, at Michigan State, at Illinois, at Iowa, Michigan*, at Maryland, at Ohio State, Michigan, at Wisconsin)

Quadrant 1 wins:  3 - Wisconsin, Seton Hall, Penn State
Quadrant 2 wins:  4 - Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  1 - St. Bonaventure*

9.  Illinois

BPI:  33

NET ranking:  35

Overall record:  17-9

BPI strength of schedule:  18

Quadrant 1/2 record:  8-8 (losses:  at Arizona, at Maryland, Missouri*, at Michigan State, at Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, at Rutgers)

Quadrant 1 wins:  5 - Michigan, at Wisconsin, at Purdue, at Michigan, at Penn State
Quadrant 2 wins:  3 - Purdue, Rutgers, Minnesota

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  1 - Miami

Bubble

10.  Indiana

BPI:  38

NET ranking:  52

Overall record:  18-9

BPI strength of schedule:  14

Quadrant 1/2 record:  8-9 (losses:  at Wisconsin, Arkansas, at Maryland, at Rutgers, Maryland, at Penn State, at Ohio State, Purdue, at Michigan)

Quadrant 1 wins:  6 - Florida State, Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, at Minnesota, Penn State
Quadrant 2 wins:  2 - UConn*, Notre Dame*

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  None

11.  Purdue

BPI:  21

NET ranking:  36

Overall record:  14-14

BPI strength of schedule:  3

Quadrant 1/2 record:  7-13 (losses:  Texas, at Marquette, Florida State*, Butler*, at Illinois, at Michigan, at Maryland, Illinois, at Rutgers, Penn State, at Ohio State, at Wisconsin, Michigan)

Quadrant 1 wins:  4 - Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa, at Indiana
Quadrant 2 wins:  3 - VCU*, Virginia, Minnesota

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  1 - at Nebraska

12.  Minnesota

BPI:  35

NET ranking:  42

Overall record:  13-13

BPI strength of schedule:  1

Quadrant 1/2 record:  7-13 (losses:  Oklahoma*, at Butler, at Utah, DePaul, at Iowa, at Purdue, at Michigan State, at Rutgers, Michigan State, at Illinois, at Penn State, Iowa, Indiana)

Quadrant 1 wins:  5 - Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, at Ohio State, Wisconsin
Quadrant 2 wins:  2 - Clemson, Oklahoma State*

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  None

Out

13.  Northwestern

BPI:  146

NET ranking:  177

14.  Nebraska

BPI:  148

NET ranking:  186

Overall record:  7-19