Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

In last night's Big Ten action, my beloved Hoosiers fell to Purdue, 57-49.  It's tough to win a basketball game when you shoot 25.4%, even against a school that hasn't been to a Final Four in forty years and has never won an NCAA championship.  Wisconsin won it's fifth in a row, upsetting Michigan in Ann Arbor -- who is a whore, mind you -- 81-74.  Elsewhere, Illinois and Ohio State beat the league's two respective bottom dwellers, Northwestern and Nebraska.  With Wisconsin's win over Michigan, we're now back at a four-way tie for second place, and this changes my predicted seeding for the Big Ten Tournament, taking Wisconsin from the predicted 6-seed all the way up to the predicted 2-seed.

There are no games tonight, but tomorrow features two matchups of Top 25 teams, as Penn State travels to Iowa and Michigan State visits Maryland.  A win by the Terps in the latter game would clinch at least a share of their first Big Ten regular season title.

Also, I'm adding some additional stats to my NCAA Tournament section below -- laying out the wins and losses in each NCAA NET Quadrant for all of the "In" and "Bubble" teams, if for no other reason than to keep track of when wins and losses might slide between Quadrants.  Also, because I'm a bit obsessed with the bubble this time of year, especially when my alma mater is on it.

Next games

The next games take place Saturday (all times Eastern):

-Penn State at Iowa (12:00 p.m.; BTN)
-Michigan State at Maryland (8:00 p.m.; ESPN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Maryland (13-4):  Michigan State (W); at Rutgers (L); Michigan (W)

2 (tie).  Illinois (11-6):  Indiana (L); at Ohio State (L); Iowa (W)
2 (tie).  Michigan State (11-6):  at Maryland (L); at Penn State (L); Ohio State (W)
2 (tie).  Penn State (11-6):  at Iowa (L); Michigan State (W); at Northwestern (W)
2 (tie).  Wisconsin (11-6):  Minnesota (W); Northwestern (W); at Indiana (L)

6.  Iowa (10-7):  Penn State (W); Purdue (W); at Illinois (L)

7 (tie).  Michigan (9-8):  at Ohio State (L); Nebraska (W); at Maryland (L)

7 (tie).  Ohio State (9-8):  Michigan (W); Illinois (W); at Michigan State (L)
9.  Rutgers (9-9):  Maryland (W); at Purdue (L)

10.  Indiana (8-9):  at Illinois (W); Minnesota (W); Wisconsin (W)

11.  Purdue (8-10):  at Iowa (L); Rutgers (W)

12.  Minnesota (7-10):  at Wisconsin (L); at Indiana (L); Nebraska (W)

13.  Nebraska (2-15):  Northwestern (W); at Michigan (L); at Minnesota (L)

14.  Northwestern (1-16):  at Nebraska (L); at Wisconsin (L); Penn State (L)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Maryland (15-5)

2.  Wisconsin (13-7) (has tiebreaker over Penn State based on 1-0 head-to-head record)
3.  Penn State (13-7)
4.  Michigan State (12-8) (will have tiebreaker over Illinois and Iowa based on 3-0 record vs. other two teams, with Iowa having 1-2 record and Illinois having 1-3 record)
5.  Iowa (12-8)

6.  Illinois (12-8)

7.  Indiana (11-9)  (will have tiebreaker over OSU based on better record vs. Wisconsin)

8.  Ohio State (11-9)

9.  Michigan (10-10) (has tiebreaker over Rutgers based on 2-0 head-to-head record)

10.  Rutgers (10-10)

11.  Purdue (9-11)

12.  Minnesota (8-12)
13.  Nebraska (3-15)

14.  Northwestern (1-19)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

In the past, I have also included far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, but, like the last couple years, I'm not even going to try to do that this year until the seeds are more finalized.  However, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 11 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (6 p.m. BTN)

(11) vs. (14) (8:30 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 12 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Friday March 13 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 14 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 15 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's BPI ranking (based on ESPN's BPI rankings), NET ranking (based on the NCAA's NET rankings), overall record against D-1 opponents, BPI strength of schedule, and record against all four NET Quadrants (for an explanation of the NET rankings and the Quadrants, click here, and note that the Quadrants don't include record against non-D1 opponents).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  For the "In" and "Out" teams, I'm putting them in order based on NET ranking.  For the "Bubble" teams, I am putting them in order based on what I think their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament is (which may or may not fall in line with the NET or BPI rankings).  For the "Out" teams, I'm just listing the BPI and NET ranking (and record), since their quality wins or bad losses are pretty much irrelevant given their records.

In

1.  Maryland

BPI:  11

NET ranking:  9
Overall record:  23-5
BPI strength of schedule:  16

Quadrant 1 record: 7-5

-Wins:  at Michigan State (13), Ohio State (16), Marquette* (24), Iowa (29), at Illinois (36), at Minnesota (46), at Indiana (56)
-Losses:  at Seton Hall (15), at Ohio State (16), at Penn State (26), at Wisconsin (28), at Iowa (29)
Quadrant 2 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Rutgers (34), Purdue (35), Illinois (36), Rhode Island (40), Notre Dame (55), Indiana (56)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 3 record:  3-0
-Wins:  Harvard* (105), Temple* (110), at Northwestern (177)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  7-0
-Wins:  George Mason (166), Northwestern (177), Nebraska (189), Oakland (224), Bryant (245), Fairfield (281), Holy Cross (342), 

-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

2.  Michigan State

BPI:  4

NET ranking:  13

Overall record:  19-9

BPI strength of schedule:  13

Quadrant 1 record: 6-8

-Wins:  at Seton Hall (15), Michigan (25), Wisconsin (28), Iowa (29), at Illinois (36), at Minnesota (46)
-Losses:  Duke (6), Maryland (9), Kentucky* (18), at Michigan (25), Penn State (26), at Wisconsin (28), at Purdue (35), at Indiana (56)
Quadrant 2 record:  5-1
-Wins:  Rutgers (34), Illinois (36), Minnesota (46), UCLA* (76), Georgia* (90)
-Losses:  Virginia Tech* (85)
Quadrant 3 record:  2-0
-Wins:  at Northwestern (177), at Nebraska (189)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (177), Eastern Michigan (180), Oakland* (224), Western Michigan (224), Charleston Southern (316), Binghamton (331)

-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

3.  Ohio State

BPI:  10

NET ranking:  16

Overall record:  19-9

BPI strength of schedule:  12

Quadrant 1 record:  5-8

-Wins:  Maryland (9), Villanova (12), Kentucky* (18), Penn State (26), at Michigan (25) 
-Losses:  at Maryland (9), West Virginia* (17), at Penn State (26), Wisconsin (28), at Wisconsin (28), at Iowa (29), at Minnesota (46), at Indiana (56)
Quadrant 2 record:  5-1
-Wins:  Rutgers (34), Purdue (35), Cincinnati (53), Indiana (56), at North Carolina (94)
-Losses:  Minnesota (46)
Quadrant 3 record:  3-0
-Wins:  Kent State (122), at Northwestern (177), at Nebraska (189)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Nebraska (189), UMass Lowell (266), Purdue Fort Wayne (279), Morgan State (295), Stetson (304), Southeast Missouri State (341)

-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

4.  Michigan

BPI:  14

NET ranking:  25

Overall record:  18-10

BPI strength of schedule:  3

Quadrant 1 record:  7-9

-Wins:  Gonzaga* (3), Creighton (8), Michigan State (13), Iowa (29), Rutgers* (34), at Rutgers (34), at Purdue (35)
-Losses:  at Louisville (10), at Michigan State (13), Ohio State (16), Oregon (19), Penn State (26), Wisconsin (28), at Iowa (29), at Illinois (36), at Minnesota (46)
Quadrant 2 record:  4-1
-Wins:  Purdue (35), Indiana (56), Iowa State* (80), North Carolina* (94)
-Losses:  Illinois (36)
Quadrant 3 record:  2-0
-Wins:  at Northwestern (177), at Nebraska (189)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  5-0
-Wins:  Appalachian State (174), Elon (254), UMass Lowell (266), Presbyterian (330), Houston Baptist (345)

-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

5.  Penn State

BPI:  21

NET ranking:  26

Overall record:  21-7

BPI strength of schedule:  18

Quadrant 1 record: 7-5
-Wins:  Maryland (9), at Michigan State (13), Ohio State (16), at Michigan (25), Iowa* (29), at Purdue (35), at Georgetown (58)
-Losses:  at Ohio State (16), Wisconsin (28), at Rutgers (34), at Minnesota (46), at Indiana (56)
Quadrant 2 record:  6-2
-Wins:  Rutgers (34), Alabama (39), Minnesota (46), Indiana (56), Syracuse* (59), Yale (61)
-Losses:  Illinois (36), Mississippi* (95)
Quadrant 3 record:  2-0
-Wins:  Wake Forest (104), at Nebraska (189)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (177), Bucknell (243), Cornell (301), Wagner (327), Maryland-Eastern Shore (347), Central Connecticut State (348)

-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

6.  Wisconsin

BPI:  24

NET ranking:  28

Overall record:  18-10

BPI strength of schedule:  1

Quadrant 1 record:  8-7

-Wins:  Maryland (9), Michigan State (13), at Ohio State (16), Ohio State (16), Marquette (24), at Michigan (25), at Penn State (26), at Tennessee (69)
-Losses:  at Michigan State (13), at Iowa (29), St. Mary's* (31), at Rutgers (34), at Purdue (35), at Minnesota (46), at NC State (57)
Quadrant 2 record:  3-2
-Wins:  Rutgers (34), Purdue (35), Indiana (56)
-Losses:  Illinois (36), Richmond* (52)
Quadrant 3 record:  1-1
-Wins:  at Nebraska (189)
-Losses:  New Mexico* (158)
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Nebraska (189), Rider (201), Green Bay (223), Eastern Illinois (241), Milwaukee (265), McNeese State (297)

-Losses:
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

7.  Iowa

BPI:  26

NET ranking:  29

Overall record:  19-9

BPI strength of schedule:  5

Quadrant 1 record: 7-7

-Wins:  Maryland (9), Ohio State (16), Texas Tech* (20), Michigan (25), Wisconsin (28), at Minnesota (46), at Syracuse (59) 
-Losses:  San Diego State* (5), at Maryland (9), at Michigan State (13), at Michigan (25), Penn State (26), at Purdue (35), at Indiana (56)
Quadrant 2 record:  5-1
-Wins:  Rutgers (34), Illinois (36), Minnesota (46), Cincinnati* (53), at Iowa State (80)
-Losses:  DePaul (75)
Quadrant 3 record:  3-1
-Wins:  Oral Roberts (146), North Florida (149), at Northwestern (177)
-Losses:  at Nebraska (189)
Quadrant 4 record:  4-0
-Wins:  Nebraska (189), Cal Poly (323), SIU-Edwardsville (336), Kennesaw State (352)

-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

8.  Rutgers

BPI:  35

NET ranking:  34

Overall record:  18-11

BPI strength of schedule:  32

Quadrant 1 record:  3-9

-Wins:  Seton Hall (15), Penn State (26), Wisconsin (28)
-Losses:  at Maryland (9), at Michigan State (13), at Ohio State (16), Michigan* (25), Michigan (25), at Penn State (26), at Wisconsin (28), at Iowa (29), at Illinois (36)
Quadrant 2 record:  4-1
-Wins:  Purdue (35), Illinois (36), Minnesota (46), Indiana (56) 
-Losses:  at Pittsburgh (111)
Quadrant 3 record:  3-1
-Wins:  Stephen F. Austin (84), UMass (141), at Nebraska (189)
-Losses:  St. Bonaventure* (113)
Quadrant 4 record:  7-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (177), Nebraska (189), Lafayette (217), Drexel (235), Bryant (245), Niagara (306), NJIT (315)

-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  1-0

9.  Illinois

BPI:  32

NET ranking:  36

Overall record:  19-9

BPI strength of schedule:  28

Quadrant 1 record: 5-7

-Wins:  Michigan (25), at Michigan (25), at Penn State (26), at Wisconsin (28), at Purdue (35)
-Losses:  at Maryland (9), Maryland (9), at Arizona (11), at Michigan State (13), Michigan State (13), at Iowa (29), at Rutgers (34)
Quadrant 2 record:  3-1
-Wins:  Rutgers (34), Purdue (35), Minnesota (46)
-Losses:  Missouri* (86)
Quadrant 3 record:  2-1
-Wins:  Old Dominion (160), at Northwestern (177)
-Losses:  Miami (103)
Quadrant 4 record:  8-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (177), Nebraska (189), Nicholls State (202), Hawaii (210), North Carolina A&T (269), at Grand Canyon (275), Hampton (318), The Citadel (338)

-Losses:
Non-Division 1 record:  1-0

Bubble

10.  Indiana

BPI:  39

NET ranking:  56

Overall record:  18-10

BPI strength of schedule:  9

Quadrant 1 record:  6-8

-Wins:  Florida State (7), Michigan State (13), Ohio State (16), Penn State (26), Iowa (29), at Minnesota (46)
-Losses:  at Maryland (9), Maryland (9), at Ohio State (16), at Michigan (25), at Penn State (26), at Wisconsin (28), at Rutgers (34), at Purdue (35)
Quadrant 2 record:  2-2
-Wins:  Notre Dame* (55), UConn* (66)
-Losses:  Purdue (35), Arkansas (41)
Quadrant 3 record:  3-0
-Wins:  Louisiana Tech (91), South Dakota State (120), at Nebraska (189)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  7-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (177), Princeton (181), Portland State (187), Nebraska (189), Troy (270), North Alabama (293), Western Illinois (334)

-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

11.  Purdue

BPI:  20

NET ranking:  35

Overall record:  15-14

BPI strength of schedule:  4

Quadrant 1 record:  4-11

-Wins:  Michigan State (13), Wisconsin (28), Iowa (29), at Indiana (56)
-Losses:  Florida State* (7), at Maryland (9), at Ohio State (16), Butler* (21), at Marquette (24), at Michigan (25), Michigan (25), Penn State (26), at Wisconsin (28), at Rutgers (34), at Illinois (36)
Quadrant 2 record:  4-2
-Wins:  Minnesota (46), Virginia (51), Indiana (56), VCU* (60) 
-Losses:  Illinois (36), Texas (65)
Quadrant 3 record:  1-1
-Wins:  at Northwestern (177)
-Losses:  at Nebraska (189)
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Ohio (173), Northwestern (177), Central Michigan (200), Green Bay (223), Jacksonville State (310), Chicago State (353)

-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

12.  Minnesota

BPI:  36

NET ranking:  46

Overall record:  13-14

BPI strength of schedule:  2
Quadrant 1 record:  5-11

-Wins:  Ohio State (16), at Ohio State (16), Michigan (25), Penn State (26), Wisconsin (29)

-Losses:  Maryland (9), at Michigan State (13), Michigan State (13), at Butler (21), at Penn State (26), Iowa (29), at Iowa (29), at Rutgers (34), at Purdue (35), at Illinois (36), Oklahoma* (49)
Quadrant 2 record:  1-3
-Wins:  Oklahoma State* (70)
-Losses:  Indiana (56), DePaul (75), at Utah (88)
Quadrant 3 record:  2-0
-Wins:  Clemson (77), at Northwestern (177)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  5-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (177), FIU (179), Central Michigan (200), North Dakota (242), Cleveland State (300)

-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

Out

13.  Northwestern

BPI:  147

NET ranking:  177
Overall record:  6-21

14.  Nebraska

BPI:  161

NET ranking:  189

Overall record:  7-21