Tuesday Top Ten: NCAA Tournament Edition

This year's NCAA Tournament brackets have been announced, and I think this will be another unpredictable NCAA Tournament.  While there are a handful of top teams, every one of them has a flaw and is beatable, and there are about ten teams who I think could legitimately win it all.  Or they could all lose before the end of the first weekend, which would destroy my brackets but bring me so much joy.  I have already filled out 107 brackets, and I have zero confidence in any of them.  

Here are a couple initial random thoughts and fun facts:

• As with last year, I don't think any 1-seeds have an easy path to the Final Four.  I wouldn't be surprised if none of them make it to Indianapolis or if all four of them do.  
• East 1-seed Duke's road is particularly tough, especially considering the injuries the Blue Devils are dealing with at the moment.  They will likely have to go through Big East champ St. John's or Kansas in the Sweet 16, and then UConn or Michigan State to get to the Final Four.  
• South 1-seed and defending champ Florida shouldn't have too much trouble getting to the Sweet 16, but they could face a Vanderbilt team that recently beat them by 17 in the SEC Tournament or a streaky Nebraska team that, when firing on all cylinders, can compete with anyone in the country.  And then an Elite 8 matchup would loom potentially with Houston (the team they beat in the national championship game last year) -- in Houston, mind you -- or Illinois, which has the height and shooting to take anyone down.
• West 1-seed Arizona seems to be the team most picked to win it all by college basketball pundits, and I think they probably have the easiest path to Indy of the four 1-seeds, but it's still not a walk in the park.  Assuming all goes chalky, the Wildcats would play either SEC champ Arkansas or Big Ten runner-up Wisconsin in the Sweet 16, and then either Big Ten champ Purdue (who I think is overseeded as a 2-seed) or Gonzaga in the Elite 8.
• Finally, Midwest 1-seed Michigan's path to the Elite 8 may have just gotten a little easier, as Alabama star guard Aden Holloway was arrested on felony drug charges a couple days ago and has been dismissed from the team.  I'm not saying that necessarily means the Crimson Tide won't make it to the Sweet 16, but it hurts their chances to go much further, assuming they get past 13-seed Hofstra in the first round and battle-tested Texas Tech or MAC champ Akron in the second round.  In the Elite 8, Michigan could potentially face a one of two teams ranked in the Top 10, Iowa State or Virginia.
• As always, I would not be surprised if all of the 12-seeds beat all of the 5-seeds.  Or none.  But I would be more surprised if none of them win.
• The MAC has two teams in the same NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1999, and Miami (OH) and Akron will be trying to get the MAC's first NCAA Tournament win since 2021, when Ohio beat Virginia as a 13-seed in the first round.  The last time the MAC won a total of two or more games in the NCAA Tournament was 2012, when Ohio went to the Sweet 16, also as a 13-seed.  Miami (OH) hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game since going to the Sweet 16 in 1999, and Akron has never won an NCAA Tournament game in their seven prior trips to the Big Dance.
• We have two teams in this year's field who are making their NCAA Tournament debuts (at the D-1 level, anyway):
• Cal Baptist (13-seed East)
• Queens (15-seed West)
• By winning the Atlantic Sun Tournament, the Queens Royals are not only in the Big Dance for the first time, but made it in their first year of D-1 eligibility, which I believe is only the fourth time in the last 50+ years that has happened and the second year in a row (UC San Diego did it last year).
• Of the 18 schools with 35 or more NCAA Tournament appearances (including this year) -- Kentucky, North Carolina, Kansas, UCLA, Duke, Indiana, Louisville, Villanova, Texas, Michigan State, Marquette, Notre Dame, Syracuse, UConn, Arkansas, Arizona, Illinois, and Purdue -- only four didn't receive bids to this year's NCAA Tournament (Indiana, Marquette, Notre Dame, and Syracuse).
• The longest drought between NCAA Tournament appearance for any team in this year's tournament is Big Sky champion Idaho (15-seed in the South Region), who is in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1990.  The Vandals' 36-year span between NCAA Tournament appearances doesn't hold a candle to the longest span between appearances.  Here are the schools that have gone 40 or more years between NCAA Tournament appearances:
• 66 years:  Harvard (1946-2012)
• 54 years:  Yale (1962-2016)
• 47 years:
• Brown (1939-1986)
• Duquesne (1977-2024)
• Stanford (1942-1989)
• Wisconsin (1947-1994)
• 43 years:  Furman (1980-2023)
• 42 years:  Air Force (1962-2004)
• 41 years:  Iowa State (1944-1985)
• One of the March Madness factoids that gets thrown around every year -- but which is still true -- is that no team that lost in the quarterfinals of its conference tournament has ever won the national championship.  Of course, before 2018, no 16-seed ever beat a 1-seed, but it's happened twice now.  But if you're someone who takes these kinds of things into account, here are this year's NCAA Tournament teams that lost in their conference tournament quarterfinals (or before, as noted):
• 3-seed Illinois
• 3-seed Michigan State
• 4-seed Alabama
• 4-seed Nebraska
• 5-seed Texas Tech
• 6-seed BYU
• 6-seed Louisville
• 6-seed North Carolina
• 6-seed Tennessee
• 7-seed Kentucky
• 8-seed Georgia (lost in second round of SEC Tournament)
• 8-seed Ohio State
• 8-seed Villanova
• 9-seed Iowa
• 9-seed TCU
• 10-seed Missouri (lost in second round of SEC Tournament)
• 10-seed Texas A&M (lost in second round of SEC Tournament)
• 10-seed UCF
• 11-seed Miami (OH)
• 11-seed North Carolina State
• 11-seed SMU (lost in second round of ACC Tournament)
• 11-seed Texas (lost in first round of SEC Tournament)
• Here are the ten teams in this year's NCAA Tournament with the most tournament appearances, but no NCAA championship.  I'm including the team's seed and region in this year's tournament, the number of NCAA Tournament appearances (not including vacated appearances), the overall rank in number of appearances, and last Final Four appearance, if applicable (* means a team has lost in a national title game, ** means the furthest the team has gone is the Final Four, and *** means the team has never been to a Final Four):
• Texas** - 11-seed West:  40 appearances (9th overall); 2003
• Illinois* - 3-seed South:  36 appearances (T-17th overall); 2005
• Purdue* - 2-seed West:  36 appearances (T-17th overall); 2024
• BYU*** - 6-seed East:  33 appearances (T-20th overall); No Final Four
• St. John's* - 5-seed East:  31 appearances (T-25th overall); 1985
• Iowa* - 9-seed South:  30 appearances (T-28th overall); 1980
• Missouri*** - 10-seed West:  30 appearances (T-28th overall); No Final Four
• Gonzaga* - 3-seed West:  28 appearances (T-34th overall); 2021
• Tennessee*** - 6-seed Midwest:  28 appearances (T-34th overall); No Final Four
• Houston* - 2-seed South:  27 appearances (T-39th overall); 2025
• Here are the teams in this year's tournament that are looking for their first-ever NCAA Tournament win (along with their all-time tournament record):
• Akron (12-seed Midwest) (0-7)
• Cal Baptist (13-seed East) (0-0)
• High Point (12-seed West) (0-1)
• Hofstra (13-seed Midwest) (0-4)
• Howard (16-seed Midwest) (0-4)
• Kennesaw State (14-seed West) (0-1)
• LIU (16-seed West) (0-7)
• Nebraska (4-seed South) (0-8)
• Prairie View A&M (16-seed South) (0-2)
• Queens (15-seed West) (0-0)
• Tennessee State (15-seed Midwest) (0-2)
• Troy (13-seed South) (0-3)
• Fuck Purdue

Anyway, as I do every year, here are a couple lists of five teams each in a few categories that you should consider when filling out your brackets.  Expect there to be some contradictions, since that's the nature of predicting the NCAA Tournament.  Teams are in seed order.  So you don't think I'm entirely full of shit (or perhaps to prove that I am), I'll put in parentheses what I correctly predicted last years.

Teams with the best shot at winning it all (last year, I had Florida on this list):

1.  Arizona (1-seed West).  The Wildcats seem to be the team the most "experts" are picking to win it all, and with good reason.  They're 32-2 and won the Big 12 regular season title outright by two games, then followed it up with a Big 12 Tournament title.  They are one of the best rebounding teams in the country and score 86.1 points per game.  If they can win it all, they would become the first team west of Lawrence, Kansas to win the NCAA Tournament since the Wildcats won in 1997.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  14-2

2.  Florida (1-seed South).  The defending champs have reloaded, and they're out-rebounding opponents by an astounding 14.5 boards.  They have five guys averaging in double figures, and they don't rely too heavily on any one person.  Can they join UCLA as the only other school to win back-to-back titles multiple times?
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  19-5

3.  Michigan (1-seed Midwest).  The Wolverines won the regular season Big Ten title by an astounding four games -- and that's with four other teams that have consistently been in the top ten (Illinois, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue).  They rank in the top 20 in the country in various categories on both offense and defense:  scoring (87.3 ppg, 10th), point differential (+18.3, 4th), FG percentage (50.7%, 8th), rebounding (40.2 rpg, 18th), assists (18.6 apg, 5th), blocks (6.0 bpg, 3rd), defensive FG percentage (38.0%, 2nd), and rebound differential (+8.9, 8th).  They have a very good chance at ending the Big Ten's 26-year national title drought.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  15-3

4.  Houston (2-seed South).  With 28 wins, Kelvin Sampson's Cougars have won 27+ games eight times in the last nine years.  As with last year's NCAA Tournament runner-up team, this year's Cougars are one of the best overall defensive teams in the country, first in the nation in opponents' field goals made per game (20.9), second in opponents' points per game (62.9 ppg), and 16th in opponents' field goal percentage (40.0%).  They also protect the ball well, ranking first in fewest turnovers per game (8.5), and they're 12th in scoring differential (+14.2).  All six of their losses were to NCAA Tournament teams (Arizona (twice), Iowa State, Kansas, Tennessee, and Texas Tech).  And to top things off, assuming they advance to the second weekend, those games will be in Houston, so they'll have a significant home-court advantage in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  7-6

5.  Iowa State (2-seed Midwest).  The fact that I have three Big 12 teams out of my top five national championship contenders should tell you something about the strength of the Big 12 this year -- and certainly at the top of the league standings.  They've been in the top ten since early December and got as high as No. 2.  They average 81.8 points per game, shoot 49% from the field, shoot 38.7% from three-point range, average 17 assists per game, and outscore their opponents by an average of 16.6 points per game.  On the defensive end, they only give up 65.1 points per game and average 9 steals per game.  Don't be surprised if the Cyclones cut down the nets in Indy.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  7-6

Final Four sleepers (teams seeded 4 or higher) (last year, no team seeded 4 or higher went to the Final Four for the first time since 2009):

1.  Arkansas (4-seed West).  The Razorbacks have been ranked in the Top 15-20 for much of the year, and they are riding a five-game winning streak coming into the NCAA Tournament, fresh off their SEC Tournament title.  Hate him or love him (I'm more the former), Coach Cal knows how to win in March.  In the last five tournaments, the Razorbacks have gone to two Elite 8s and another three Sweet 16s.  If they make it to the Sweet 16 to face Arizona, they have a chance to knock the Wildcats off, and there's no one else in the region they can't beat.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  10-7

2.  St. John's (5-seed East).  The Red Storm were rewarded for their outright Big East regular season crown and Big East Tournament title with . . . a 5-seed?  They are one of the hottest teams in the country, having only lost once since January 3.  Assuming they make it past Northern Iowa in the first round, they'd likely play a down Kansas team in the second round.  Then a date with a hobbled Duke team would likely await them in the Sweet 16.  I'll take Pitino over Scheyer in March.  Then they'd have a potential rematch with UConn -- a team they've beaten twice this year -- in the Elite 8.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  4-4

3.  Vanderbilt (5-seed South).  The Commodores were another SEC team ranked in the Top 15-20 for most of the year and had their share of ups and downs in the gauntlet of the SEC.  But they got it together in March and reeled off four straight wins -- including two over Tennessee and one over Florida -- before falling to Arkansas in the SEC Tournament title game.  Vanderbilt has never made it past the Sweet 16, but this could be the year.  If they make it past McNeese (which is no guarantee), then they would play either an inconsistent Nebraska team (see below in the next section) or 13-seed Troy.  And if they get past the second round, their likely Sweet 16 opponent would be Florida, a team they dominated by 17 points in the SEC Tournament semifinals.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  11-6

4.  BYU (6-seed West).  The NCAA Tournament is often a platform for stars to shine and lead their team on an improbable run.  BYU has a bona fide star in freshman phenom AJ Dybantsa, who leads the country in scoring (25.3 ppg) and throws in 6.7 rebounds per game and nearly 4 assists a game, all while shooting over 51% from the field.  The Cougars are in the Top 25 in scoring, shoot almost 48% from the field as a team, and rebound the ball well.  They've also gone through a gauntlet in the Big 12.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  8-8

5.  Tennessee (6-seed Midwest).  For whatever reason, I'm usually too high on Tennessee in March.  Maybe it's because I like Rick Barnes.  The Vols aren't quite as good as they were the last two years, when they went to the Elite 8, but they have a good mix of experience and talent.  In their quadrant, they'd likely play Virginia in the second round (see below in the next section), and potentially Iowa State in the Sweet 16, which is winnable.  After that, it would likely be Michigan, who, as Purdue proved this past Sunday, are not invincible.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  9-9

Teams seeded 4 or better who may not make it to the second weekend (last year, I had Iowa State and Wisconsin on this list, but did not have St. John's or Texas A&M on this list):

1.  Duke (1-seed East).  Duke is really good, but they will be without guard Caleb Foster for the rest of the season, and center Patrick Ngongba II will likely miss at least a couple NCAA Tournament games.  Obviously, I don't think Siena is going to pose a threat to the Blue Devils, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if 8-seed Ohio State or 9-seed TCU pulls an upset in the second round, especially if Ngongba isn't back in the lineup.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  15-2

2.  Purdue (2-seed West).  The Boilermakers have a long and storied history . . . of underachieving in March.  Purdue has been a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament 18 times since seeding began in 1979, failing to advance to the Sweet 16 eight of those times.  Sure, they made it to the Sweet 16 last year and the national title game the year before that, but the year before that, they became the second 1-seed in NCAA Tournament history to lose to a 16-seed in the first round.  The year before, they made it the Sweet 16, only to be ousted by 15-seed St. Peter's.  The year before that, they lost to 13-seed North Texas in the first round.  The Boilermakers have been inconsistent, and they're probably overseeded as a 2-seed.  Before winning the Big Ten Tournament, the lost four of six and had a three-game losing streak in late January.  Assuming they get by Queens in the first round, either Miami (FL) or Missouri could create problems for Purdue.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  10-7

3.  Virginia (3-seed Midwest).  Virginia is a sleeper Final Four pick for some of the "experts," but they are as enigmatic of an NCAA Tournament school as there can be.  After becoming the first 1-seed to ever lose to a 16-seed in 2018, the Cavaliers followed it up the next year with a national championship.  In their three NCAA Tournaments since then, they have lost twice in the first round as a 4-seed to a 13-seed in 2021 and 2023, and then lost in a First Four play-in game as a 10-seed in 2024.  Wright State isn't a pushover, having won the Horizon League regular season title outright and then the conference tournament.  And if the Cavaliers make it past the Raiders, they'd get a second round matchup with a feisty 6-seed Tennessee or the winner of the Miami (OH)/SMU play-in game, and all three of those teams could pull the upset.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  10-3

4.  Kansas (4-seed East).  Kansas always seems to be a go big or go home early type of team.  They haven't made it out of the first weekend of the tournament since 2022, when they won the national title.  Since winning the national title in 2008, Kansas has been a top four seed 15 times, and the Jayhawks lost to worse-seeded teams 11 of those 15 times. 13-seed Cal Baptist shouldn't be a problem, but you never know.  Then if they get by the Lancers, Big East champ 5-seed St. John's or a pesky 12-seed Northern Iowa team await the Jayhawks.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  10-7

5.  Nebraska (4-seed South).  The Cornhuskers have never won an NCAA Tournament game, and they'll certainly feel that pressure, as expectations are as high in Lincoln as they've ever been for basketball.  After starting the season 20-0, they went 6-6 to close out the regular season, including a 16-point loss to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals.  First round opponent 13-seed Troy -- which won both the Sun Belt regular season outright and the conference tournament -- can't be overlooked.  And if Nebraska wins that, they'll get a second-round date with Vanderbilt or McNeese, either one of which could take down the Huskers.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  5-6

Teams seeded 12 or higher with the best chance of pulling an upset in the first round (last year, I had Colorado State and McNeese on this list, and those were the only two teams seeded 12 or higher that won a first-round game):

1.  Akron (12-seed Midwest).  Akron is still searching for its NCAA Tournament win, but this could be the year.  The Zips' only two losses since the beginning of January have been to fellow NCAA Tournament teams Troy and Miami (OH), and they shoot the three very well.  They play Texas Tech in the first round, and the Red Raiders have proven they can beat anyone in the country, but they are inconsistent, lost three in a row to end the regular season (including getting crushed by Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals), and are without their star forward JT Toppin, who is their leading scorer and rebounder.  They're 3-3 since he was lost for the season to a torn ACL on February 17.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  0-3

2.  High Point (12-seed West).  In the Panthers' first trip to the NCAA Tournament last year, they put up a pretty damn good fight as a 13-seed against 4-seed Purdue before ultimately falling 75-63.  They're even better this year, rolling through the Big South with only one loss and finishing the regular season 30-4.  They haven't lost since mid January, and they average 90 points a game.  On top of that, their first round opponent, Wisconsin, hasn't made it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament since 2017 -- and the Badgers have lost their first round game each of the last three times they were a 5-seed (in 2024 to James Madison, in 2019 to Oregon, and 2013 to Ole Miss).
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  1-0

3.  McNeese (12-seed South).  This is the third NCAA Tournament in a row that the Cowboys are a 12-seed.  Two years ago, they got destroyed by 5-seed Gonzaga, but last year, they upset 5-seed Clemson in the first round for their first NCAA Tournament win ever.  This year's team is just as dangerous, ending the season on a ten-game winning streak.  They shoot well from three and force turnovers better than anyone else in the country, both good stats for an upset.  Plus, they're playing Vanderbilt, which has advance to the second round only once in its last seven NCAA Tournament appearances (in 2012) and hasn't made it to the Sweet 16 since 2007.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  0-2

4.  Northern Iowa (12-seed East).  The Panthers were a surprise winner of the MVC Tournament as a 6-seed, but don't let that fool you.  They lead the country in defensive points allowed (61.3 ppg), are 3rd in opponents' three-point percentage (28.5%), and are 26th in opponents' FG percentage (40.7%).  Also, MVC teams seeded 10th or worse have won five first round games in the last ten NCAA Tournaments.  Their opponent, St. John's, has won one NCAA Tournament game since 2000 and have been knocked out by double-digit seeds in four of their last six NCAA Tournaments.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  1-1

5.  Hawaii (13-seed West).  The Rainbow Warriors are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016, when they beat 4-seed Cal in the first round as a 13-seed.  And the Big West champions have a pretty good track record when seeded 13th or better.  Of the last five Big West champs to be seeded 13th or better, two have won their first round games -- 13-seed UC Irvine beat 4-seed Kansas State in 2019, and Hawaii's aforementioned win in 2016 -- and the other three lost by three or fewer points -- 12-seed UC San Diego in 2025 (lost to 5-seed Michigan 68-65), 12-seed UC Santa Barbara in 2021 (lost to 5-seed Creighton 63-62), and 13-seed UC Irvine in 2015 (lost to 4-seed Louisville 57-55).
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  0-0