This past weekend was not only a much-needed holiday weekend, but more importantly, it was the first weekend of college football. Dubbed by ESPN's marketing machine as the "best opening weekend ever" (or something like that), there were marquee matchups throughout the weekend, with four games pitting ranked teams against each other, along with a bunch of other big-name games, like LSU playing Wisconsin in Lambeau Field, Clemson playing at Auburn, UCLA playing at Texas A&M, and Notre Dame playing at Texas. And making things better, all of the games -- aside from Alabama's dismantling of USC -- were pretty close.
Of course, I would be remiss if I didn't mention the fact that my beloved Hoosiers -- behind two defensive touchdowns and the arm of JUCO transfer QB Richard Lagow (pronounced lego!) -- stormed into Miami Thursday night and took road win over Ron Turner's mighty FIU Panthers, 34-13. This may not seem like a big deal to you, but a road win for the Hoosiers is always welcome, and now that the Big Ten season has gone from 8 games to 9 games, these non-conference games are even that much more important for IU's bowl chances.
Speaking of which, the Big Ten had a great first weekend, going 12-2, with the only losses being Northwestern's egg laying at home against Western Michigan and Rutgers's complete destruction by #14 Washington. If things go well for Big Ten teams in the non-conference slate, we could match or top last year's total of ten bowl teams for the conference (including Michigan State's spot in the College Football Playoff and Iowa and Ohio State's New Year's Six Bowl berths).
Let's take a look at the bowl chances of each Big Ten team. I'll list each team's current record and 2015 record (overall, conference, and bowl), and then I'll break down each team's (1) remaining games by likely wins, likely losses, and toss-ups, (2) toughest remaining game, (3) probable regular season win total, with a range of three wins (this will not include the Big Ten Championship game or any postseason games), and (4) what it will take to make a bowl, and what it will take not to make a bowl. For sake of ease, I'm just going to go in alphabetical order.
1. Illinois
2016 record: 1-0
2015 record: 5-7 (2-6)
Remaining likely wins: Western Michigan (9/17), Purdue (10/8), at Rutgers (10/15)
Remaining likely losses: North Carolina (9/10), at Nebraska (10/1), at Michigan (10/22), Michigan State (11/5), at Wisconsin (11/12), Iowa (11/19), at Northwestern (11/26)
Remaining toss-ups: Minnesota (10/29)
Toughest game: at Michigan (10/22)
Probable win total: 4-6
Will make a bowl if: they can pull off a couple upsets in the Big Ten season, or Lovie Smith can get Urlacher to suit up.
Won't make a bowl if: Urbana-Champaign's topography continues to be flat.
2. Indiana
2016 record: 1-0
2015 record: 6-7 (2-6) (Pinstripe Bowl - L)
Remaining likely wins: Ball State (9/10), Wake Forest (9/24), Maryland (10/29), at Rutgers (11/5), Purdue (11/26)
Remaining likely losses: Michigan State (10/1), at Ohio State (10/8), at Michigan (11/19)
Remaining toss-ups: Nebraska (10/15), at Northwestern (10/22), Penn State (11/12)
Toughest game: at Ohio State (10/8)
Probable win total: 6-8
Will make a bowl if: they can avoid injuries, and the defense bends, but doesn't break.
Won't make a bowl if: their defense both bends and breaks.
3. Iowa
2016 record: 1-0
2015 record: 12-2 (8-0) (Rose Bowl - L)
Remaining likely wins: Iowa State (9/10), North Dakota State (9/17), at Rutgers (9/24), Northwestern (10/1), at Minnesota (10/8), at Purdue (10/15), Wisconsin (10/22), at Illinois (11/19), Nebraska (11/25)
Remaining likely losses: none
Remaining toss-ups: at Penn State (11/5), Michigan (11/12)
Toughest game: Michigan (11/12)
Probable win total: 10-12
Will make a bowl if: they play at least six games.
Won't make a bowl if: Nile Kinnick returns from the dead, starting the zombie apocalypse in Iowa City.
4. Maryland
2016 record: 1-0
2015 record: 3-9 (1-7)
Remaining likely wins: Purdue (10/1), Rutgers (11/26)
Remaining likely losses: at Penn State (10/8), Michigan State (10/22), at Indiana (10/29), at Michigan (11/5), Ohio State (11/12), at Nebraska (11/19)
Remaining toss-ups: at FIU (9/9), at UCF (9/17), Minnesota (10/15)
Toughest game: at Michigan (11/5)
Probable win total: 4-6
Will make a bowl if: they win their remaining non-conference games and manage to steal a win or two in the Big Ten from better teams.
Won't make a bowl if: they lose either of their remaining non-conference games in Florida.
5. Michigan
2016 record: 1-0
2015 record: 10-3 (6-2) (Citrus Bowl - W)
Remaining likely wins: UCF (9/10), Colorado (9/17), Penn State (9/24), Wisconsin (10/1), at Rutgers (10/8), Illinois (10/22), Maryland (11/5), Indiana (11/19)
Remaining likely losses: none
Remaining toss-ups: at Michigan State (10/29), at Iowa (11/12), at Ohio State (11/26)
Toughest game: at Ohio State (11/26)
Probable win total: 10-12
Will make a bowl if: their helmets are winged.
Won't make a bowl if: Maurice Taylor comes back to give the Wolverines football team rides around campus.
6. Michigan State
2016 record: 1-0
2015 record: 12-2 (7-1) (CFP Semifinal - L)
Remaining likely wins: Wisconsin (9/24), at Indiana (10/1), BYU (10/8), Northwestern (10/15), at Maryland (10/22), at Illinois (11/5), Rutgers (11/12), at Penn State (11/26)
Remaining likely losses: none
Remaining toss-ups: at Notre Dame (9/17), Michigan (10/29), Ohio State (11/19)
Toughest game: Ohio State (11/19)
Probable win total: 10-12
Will make a bowl if: half the stadium chants "go white" after the other half chants "go green."
Won't make a bowl if: John L. Smith makes his triumphant return to East Lansing.
7. Minnesota
2016 record: 1-0
2015 record: 6-7 (2-6) (Quick Lane Bowl - W)
Remaining likely wins: Indiana State (9/10), Colorado State (9/24), Rutgers (10/22), Purdue (11/5)
Remaining likely losses: at Penn State (10/1), Iowa (10/8), at Nebraska (11/12), at Wisconsin (11/26)
Remaining toss-ups: at Maryland (10/15), at Illinois (10/29), Northwestern (11/19)
Toughest game: at Wisconsin (11/26)
Probable win total: 5-7
Will make a bowl if: they beat either Maryland or Illinois on the road.
Won't make a bowl if: they lose to both Maryland or Illinois on the road.
8. Nebraska
2016 record: 1-0
2015 record: 6-7 (3-5) (Foster Farms Bowl - W)
Remaining likely wins: Wyoming (9/10), Illinois (10/1), Purdue (10/22), Minnesota (11/12), Maryland (11/19)
Remaining likely losses: at Wisconsin (10/29), at Ohio State (11/5), at Iowa (11/26)
Remaining toss-ups: Oregon (9/17), at Northwestern (9/24), at Indiana (10/15)
Toughest game: at Ohio State (11/5)
Probable win total: 6-8
Will make a bowl if: they don't completely shit the bed at home.
Won't make a bowl if: Lawrence Phillips starts showing up in players' dreams.
9. Northwestern
2016 record: 0-1
2015 record: 10-3 (6-2) (Outback Bowl - L)
Remaining likely wins: Illinois State (9/10), Duke (9/17), Purdue (11/12), Illinois (11/26)
Remaining likely losses: at Iowa (10/1), at Michigan State (10/15), at Ohio State (10/29)
Remaining toss-ups: Nebraska (9/24), Indiana (10/22), Wisconsin (11/5), at Minnesota (11/19)
Toughest game: at Ohio State (10/29)
Probable win total: 7-9
Will make a bowl if: they can stop fumbling on the goal line.
Won't make a bowl if: they lose to Duke in what should be an annual game called "The Battle of the Brains."
10. Ohio State
2016 record: 1-0
2015 record: 12-1 (7-1) (Fiesta Bowl - W)
Remaining likely wins: Tulsa (9/10), Rutgers (10/1), Indiana (10/8), at Penn State (10/22), Northwesten (10/29), Nebraska (11/5), at Maryland (11/12)
Remaining likely losses: none
Remaining toss-ups: at Oklahoma (9/17), at Wisconsin (10/15), at Michigan State (11/19), Michigan (11/26)
Toughest game: at Michigan State (11/19)
Probable win total: 10-12
Will make a bowl if: Urban Meyer is still alive in November.
Won't make a bowl if: God finally smites Ohio.
11. Penn State
2016 record: 1-0
2015 record: 7-6 (4-4) (TaxSlayer Bowl - L)
Remaining likely wins: Temple (9/17), Minnesota (10/1), Maryland (10/8), at Purdue (10/29), at Rutgers (11/19)
Remaining likely losses: at Michigan (9/24), Ohio State (10/22), Michigan State (11/26)
Remaining toss-ups: at Pitt (9/10), Iowa (11/5), at Indiana (11/12)
Toughest game: at Michigan (9/24)
Probable win total: 6-8
Will make a bowl if: they continue to sweep years and years of rampant child molestation under the rug, all in the sake of lionizing a man who knew about it and didn't say anything.
Won't make a bowl if: they manage to lose to Purdue and/or Rutgers on the road.
12. Purdue
2016 record: 1-0
2015 record: 2-10 (1-7)
Remaining likely wins: none
Remaining likely losses: at Maryland (10/1), at Illinois (10/8), Iowa (10/15), at Nebraska (10/22), Penn State (10/29), at Minnesota (11/5), Northwestern (11/12), Wisconsin (11/19), at Indiana (11/26)
Remaining toss-ups: Cincinnati (9/10), Nevada (9/24)
Toughest game: Wisconsin (11/19)
Probable win total: 1-3
Will make a bowl if: every Big Ten team they play comes down with dysentery on game day.
Won't make a bowl if: they play football.
13. Rutgers
2016 record: 0-1
2015 record: 4-8 (1-7)
Remaining likely wins: Howard (9/10), New Mexico (9/17)
Remaining likely losses: Iowa (9/24), at Ohio State (10/1), Michigan (10/8), Illinois (10/15), at Minnesota (10/22), Indiana (11/5), at Michigan State (11/12), Penn State (11/19), at Maryland (11/26)
Remaining toss-ups: none
Toughest game: at Ohio State (10/1)
Probable win total: 1-3
Will make a bowl if: they move to the Sun Belt this season.
Won't make a bowl if: Bruce Springsteen is also still from New Jersey.
14. Wisconsin
2016 record: 1-0
2015 record: 10-3 (6-2) (Holiday Bowl - W)
Remaining likely wins: Akron (9/10), Georgia State (9/17), Nebraska (10/29), Illinois (11/12), at Purdue (11/19), Minnesota (11/26)
Remaining likely losses: at Michigan State (9/24), at Michigan (10/1), at Iowa (10/22)
Remaining toss-ups: Ohio State (10/15), at Northwestern (11/5)
Toughest game: at Michigan (10/1)
Probable win total: 8-10
Will make a bowl if: the student section decides to drink a beer or two before each home game.
Won't make a bowl if: they start a strict diet of only fried cheese curds.
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