Thursday, March 09, 2017

Updated Championship Week Predictions

Here's what happened in yesterday's Championship Week action:
  • In the Patriot League final, 1-seed Bucknell beat 3-seed Lehigh without any real concern, 81-65.  The Bison will be going to their 7th NCAA Tournament and first since 2013.
  • In the Big Ten first round, both lower seeds won, as 13-seed Penn State beat 12-seed Nebraska and 14-seed Rutgers upset 11-seed Ohio State, ending any slim hope the Buckeyes had of an NCAA Tournament berth.  This is particularly good news for Northwestern fans, as the Wildcats will face off against Rutgers today, instead of Ohio State.  Then again, the Scarlet Knights have crushed the bubble hopes of two Big Ten teams in a row, so nothing is guaranteed.  Meanwhile, Michigan's charter plane skidded off the runway while attempting to take off yesterday.  Luckily no one was hurt, but the team had to wait until this morning to fly to DC, where they play at noon today against Illinois.  It will be interesting to see whether the Wolverines are shaken up or otherwise off of their game.
  • In an otherwise meaningless opening round 8/9 game in the Big East between St. John's and Georgetown, Red Storm head coach Chris Mullin and Georgetown head coach John Thompson III had to be separated after there was some chippy action between the teams on the court.  1985 lives!
  • While no teams seeded in the top 4 of their conference lost, we did have some double-digit seeds upset single-digit seeds.  In the Sun Belt, 12-seed Louisiana-Monroe beat 5-seed Arkansas State, 73-70 in OT.  In the Big 12, Shaka Smart's 10-seed Texas Longhorns beat 7-seed Texas Tech.  Havoc!  In the Mountain West, 10-seed Air Force bombed 7-seed Wyoming, 83-68, although the final score was closer than the game actually was.
  • There are no bids up for grabs today.
  • 3 more conference tournaments start up today, and a total of 16 have games today.  There are 58 college basketball games today.  That's nearly 20% of all of the Championship Week games on one day!  The first games tip off at Noon Eastern, and the last games are scheduled to tip at 11:30 p.m.  When it's all said and done, we're looking at nearly 14 hours of continuous college basketball.  Get pumped.
  • Bubble teams that won yesterday:  California, TCU, USC, Virginia Tech, Xavier
  • Bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Auburn, Clemson, Ohio State, Syracuse, Texas Tech, Wake Forest
Here are the tournaments starting today, the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments.

Tournaments starting today
-AAC
-Big West
-WAC

Tournaments with games today
-AAC
-ACC
-Atlantic 10
-Big 12
-Big East
-Big Sky
-Big Ten
-Big West
-Conference USA
-MAC
-MEAC
-Mountain West
-Pac-12
-SEC
-Southland
-WAC

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern)
-None

Already clinched automatic berths (I will add in parentheses the NCAA tournament appearances for each school, including the bid just clinched)
-Atlantic Sun:  Florida Gulf Coast (3)
-Big South:  Winthrop (10)
-Colonial:  UNC-Wilmington (6)
-Horizon:  Northern Kentucky (1)
-MAAC:  Iona (12)
-Missouri Valley:  Wichita State (14)
-Northeast:  Mount St. Mary's (5)
-Ohio Valley:  Jacksonville State (1)
-Patriot:  Bucknell (7)
-Southern:  East Tennessee State (10)
-Summit:  South Dakota State (4)
-West Coast:  Gonzaga (20)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern)

AAC (March 9-12; Hartford)
3/9 – First Round
3:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (8) Temple vs. (9) East Carolina.  Predicted winner:  Temple
6 p.m. (ESPNews) (7) Tulsa vs. (10) Tulane.  Predicted winner:  Tulsa
8 p.m. (ESPNews) (6) UConn vs. (11) South Florida.  Predicted winner:  UConn
3/10 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) SMU vs. (8) Temple.  Predicted winner:  SMU
2 p.m. (ESPN2) (4) Central Florida vs. (5) Memphis.  Predicted winner:  Central Florida
7 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Cincinnati vs. (7) Tulsa.  Predicted winner:  Cincinnati
9 p.m. (ESPNU) (3) Houston vs. (6) UConn.  Predicted winner:  UConn
3/11 – Semifinals
3 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) SMU vs. (4) Central Florida.  Predicted winner:  SMU
5 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) Cincinnati vs. (6) UConn.  Predicted winner:  Cincinnati
3/12 – Finals
3:15 p.m. (ESPN) (1) SMU vs. Cincinnati.  Predicted winner:  SMU

ACC (March 7-11; Brooklyn)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN) (1) North Carolina vs. (9) Miami.  Predicted winner:  North Carolina
2 p.m. (ESPN) (4) Louisville vs. (5) Duke.  Predicted winner:  Louisville
7 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Florida State vs. (7) Virginia Tech.  Predicted winner:  Florida State
9 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Notre Dame vs. (6) Virginia.  Predicted winner:  Virginia
3/10 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) North Carolina vs. (4) Louisville.  Predicted winner:  Louisville
9 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (2) Florida State vs. (6) Virginia.  Predicted winner:  Florida State
3/11 – Finals
9 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Florida State vs. (4) Louisville.  Predicted winner:  Louisville

America East (March 1, 6, 11; campus of higher seeds)
3/11 – Finals
11 a.m. (ESPN2) (2) Stony Brook at (1) Vermont.  Predicted winner:  Vermont

Atlantic 10 (March 8-12; Pittsburgh)
3/9 – Second Round
12 p.m. (NBCSN) (8) LaSalle vs. (9) Davidson.  Predicted winner:  Davidson
2:30 p.m. (NBCSN) (5) St. Bonaventure vs. (12) UMass.  Predicted winner:  St. Bonaventure
6 p.m. (NBCSN) (7) George Mason vs. (10) Fordham.  Predicted winner:  George Mason
8:30 p.m. (NBCSN) (6) George Washington vs. (11) St. Louis.  Predicted winner:  George Washington
3/10 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (NBCSN) (1) Dayton vs. (9) Davidson.  Predicted winner:  Dayton
2 p.m. (NBCSN) (4) Rhode Island vs. (5) St. Bonaventure.  Predicted winner:  Rhode Island
6 p.m. (NBCSN) (2) VCU vs. (7) George Mason.  Predicted winner:  VCU
8:30 p.m. (NBCSN) (3) Richmond vs. (6) George Washington.  Predicted winner:  Richmond
3/11 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Dayton vs. (4) Rhode Island.  Predicted winner: Dayton
3:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) VCU vs. (3) Richmond.  Predicted winner:  VCU
3/12 – Finals
12:30 p.m. (CBS) (1) Dayton vs. (2) VCU).  Predicted winner:  Dayton

Big 12 (March 8-11; Kansas City)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
12:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (4) Iowa State vs. (5) Oklahoma State.  Predicted winner:  Oklahoma State
2:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Kansas vs. (8) TCU.  Predicted winner:  Kansas
7 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) West Virginia vs. (10) Texas.  Predicted winner:  West Virginia
9 p.m. (ESPNU) (3) Baylor vs. (6) Kansas State.  Predicted winner:  Baylor
3/10 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Kansas vs. (5) Oklahoma State.  Predicted winner:  Kansas
9 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (2) West Virginia vs. (3) Baylor.  Predicted winner:  Baylor
3/11 – Finals
6 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Kansas vs. (3) Baylor.  Predicted winner:  Kansas

Big East (March 8-11; New York)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (1) Villanova vs. (8) St. John's.  Predicted winner:  Villanova
2:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (4) Marquette vs. (5) Seton Hall.  Predicted winner:  Seton Hall
7 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (2) Butler vs. (7) Xavier.  Predicted winner:  Butler
9:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (3) Creighton vs. (6) Providence.  Predicted winner:  Creighton
3/10 – Semifinals
6:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (1) Villanova vs. (5) Seton Hall.  Predicted winner:  Villanova
9:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (2) Butler vs. (3) Creighton.  Predicted winner:  Butler
3/11 – Finals
5:30 p.m. (Fox) (1) Villanova vs. (2) Butler.  Predicted winner:  Butler

Big Sky (March 7, 9-11; Reno)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
3:05 p.m. (Watch Big Sky) (1) North Dakota vs. (8) Portland State.  Predicted winner:  North Dakota
5:35 p.m. (Watch Big Sky) (4) Idaho vs. (5) Montana.  Predicted winner:  Montana
8:35 p.m. (Watch Big Sky) (2) Eastern Washington vs. (7) Sacramento State.  Predicted winner:  Eastern Washington
11:05 p.m. (Watch Big Sky) (3) Weber State vs. (11) Southern Utah.  Predicted winner:  Weber State
3/10 – Semifinals
8:35 p.m. (Watch Big Sky) (1) North Dakota vs. (5) Montana.  Predicted winner:  North Dakota
11:05 p.m. (Watch Big Sky) (2) Eastern Washington vs. (3) Weber State.  Predicted winner:  Eastern Washington
3/11 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) North Dakota vs. (2) Eastern Washington.  Predicted winner:  Eastern Washington

Big Ten (March 8-12; Washington, DC)
3/9 – Second Round
12 p.m. (BTN) (8) Michigan vs. (9) Illinois.  Predicted winner: Michigan
2:30 p.m. (BTN) (5) Michigan State vs. (13) Penn State.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State
6:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (7) Iowa vs. (10) Indiana.  Predicted winner:  Indiana
9 p.m. (ESPN2) (6) Northwestern vs. (14) Rutgers.  Predicted winner:  Northwestern
3/10 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Purdue vs. (8) Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Michigan
2:30 p.m. (ESPN) (4) Minnesota vs. (5) Michigan State.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State
6:30 p.m. (BTN) (2) Wisconsin vs. (10) Indiana.  Predicted winner:  Indiana
9 p.m. (BTN) (3) Maryland vs. (6) Northwestern.  Predicted winner:  Maryland
3/11 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBS) (5) Michigan State vs. (8) Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Michigan
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (3) Maryland vs. (10) Indiana.  Predicted winner:  Indiana
3/12 – Finals
3 p.m. (CBS) (8) Michigan vs. (10) Indiana. Predicted winner:  Indiana

Big West (March 9-11; Anaheim)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (Fox Sports West Prime Ticket) (1) UC Irvine vs. (8) UC Riverside. Predicted winner:  UC Irvine
5:30 p.m. (Fox Sports West Prime Ticket) (4) Long Beach State vs. (5) Hawaii.  Predicted winner:  Hawaii
9 p.m. (Fox Sports West Prime Ticket) (3) Cal State Fullerton vs. (6) Cal State Northridge.  Predicted winner:  Cal State Fullerton
11:30 p.m. (Fox Sports West Prime Ticket) (2) UC Davis vs. (7) Cal Poly.  Predicted winner:  UC Davis
3/10 – Semifinals
9:30 p.m. (ESPN3/ESPNU – tape delayed) (1) UC Irvine vs. (5) Hawaii. Predicted winner:  UC Irvine
11:59 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) UC Davis vs. (3) Cal State Fullerton.  Predicted winner:  UC Davis
3/11 – Finals
11:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) UC Irvine vs. (2) UC Davis. Predicted winner:  UC Irvine

Conference USA (March 8-11; Birmingham, AL)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
12:30 p.m. (ASN) (1) Middle Tennessee State vs. (9) UTSA.  Predicted winner:  Middle Tennessee State 
3 p.m. (ASN) (4) UTEP vs. (5) Rice.  Predicted winner: Rice
6:30 p.m. (ASN) (2) Louisiana Tech vs. (7) UAB.  Predicted winner: Louisiana Tech
9 p.m. (ASN) (3) Old Dominion vs. (6) Marshall.  Predicted winner: Old Dominion
3/10 – Semifinals
12:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Middle Tennessee State vs. (5) Rice.  Predicted winner: Middle Tennessee State
3 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Louisiana Tech vs. (3) Old Dominion.  Predicted winner: Louisiana Tech
3/11 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Middle Tennessee State vs. (2) Louisiana Tech.  Predicted winner:  Middle Tennessee State

Ivy League (March 11-12; Philadelphia)
3/11 – Semifinals
1:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Princeton vs. (4) Penn.  Predicted winner:  Princeton
4 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Harvard vs. (3) Yale.  Predicted winner:  Yale
3/12 – Finals
12 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Princeton vs. (3) Yale.  Predicted winner:  Princeton

MAC (March 6, 9-11; first round at campus of higher seed and remaining rounds in Cleveland)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (Spectrum Sports/BCSN/ESPN3) (1) Akron vs. (8) Eastern Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Akron
2:30 p.m. (Spectrum Sports/BCSN/ESPN3) (4) Ball State vs. (5) Western Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Ball State
6:30 p.m. (Spectrum Sports/BCSN/ESPN3 ) (2) Ohio vs. (7) Toledo.  Predicted winner:  Ohio
9 p.m. (Spectrum Sports/BCSN/ESPN3) (3) Buffalo vs. (6) Kent State.  Predicted winner:  Kent State
3/10 – Semifinals
5:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Akron vs. (4) Ball State.  Predicted winner:  Akron
8 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Ohio vs. (6) Kent State.  Predicted winner:  Ohio
3/11 – Finals
7:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Akron vs. (2) Ohio.  Predicted winner:  Akron

MEAC (March 6-11; Norfolk, VA)
3/9 - Quarterfinals
6 p.m. (3) Morgan State vs. (11) Howard.  Predicted winner:  Morgan State
8 p.m. (4) Hampton vs. (5) Maryland-Eastern Shore.  Predicted winner:  Hampton
3/10 – Semifinals
6:00 p.m. (1) North Carolina Central vs. (4) Hampton.  Predicted winner:  North Carolina Central
8:00 p.m. (2) Norfolk State vs. (3) Morgan State.  Predicted winner:  Norfolk State
3/11 – Final
1:00 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) North Carolina Central vs. (2) Norfolk State.  Predicted winner:  North Carolina Central

Mountain West (March 8-11; Las Vegas)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Nevada vs. (8) Utah State.  Predicted winner: Nevada
5:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (4) Fresno State vs. (5) New Mexico.  Predicted winner: Fresno State
9 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Colorado State vs. (10) Air Force.  Predicted winner: Colorado State
11:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (3) Boise State vs. (6) San Diego State.  Predicted winner: San Diego State
3/10 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Nevada vs. (4) Fresno State.  Predicted winner: Nevada
11:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Colorado State vs. (6) San Diego State.  Predicted winner: Colorado State
3/11 – Finals
6 p.m. (CBS) (1) Nevada vs. (2) Colorado State.  Predicted winner:  Colorado State

Pac-12 (March 8-11; Las Vegas)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (1) Oregon vs. (8) Arizona State.  Predicted winner: Oregon
5:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (4) Utah vs. (5) California.  Predicted winner: Utah
9 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (2) Arizona vs. (7) Colorado.  Predicted winner: Arizona
11:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (3) UCLA vs. (6) USC.  Predicted winner: UCLA
3/10 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (1) Oregon vs. (4) Utah.  Predicted winner: Oregon
11:30 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Arizona vs. (3) UCLA.  Predicted winner: UCLA
3/11 – Finals
11 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Oregon vs. (3) UCLA.  Predicted winner:  Oregon

SEC (March 8-12; Nashville)
3/9 – Second Round
1 p.m. (SEC Network) (8) Georgia vs. (9) Tennessee.  Predicted winner: Georgia
3:30 p.m. (SEC Network) (5) Alabama vs. (12) Mississippi State.  Predicted winner: Alabama
7 p.m. (SEC Network) (7) Vanderbilt vs. (10) Texas A&M.  Predicted winner: Vanderbilt
9:30 p.m. (SEC Network) (6) Mississippi vs. (14) Missouri.  Predicted winner: Mississippi
3/10 – Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (SEC Network) (1) Kentucky vs. (8) Georgia.  Predicted winner: Georgia
3:30 p.m. (SEC Network) (4) South Carolina vs. (5) Alabama.  Predicted winner: South Carolina
7 p.m. (SEC Network) (2) Florida vs. (7) Vanderbilt.  Predicted winner: Florida
9:30 p.m. (SEC Network) (3) Arkansas vs. (6) Mississippi.  Predicted winner: Arkansas
3/11 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Kentucky vs. (4) South Carolina.  Predicted winner: Kentucky
3:30 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Florida vs. (3) Arkansas.  Predicted winner: Florida
3/12 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Kentucky vs. (2) Florida.  Predicted winner:  Kentucky

Southland (March 8-11; Katy, TX)
3/9 – Second Round
6 p.m. (ESPN3) (4) Houston Baptist vs. (5) Sam Houston State.  Predicted winner: Sam Houston State
8:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (3) Stephen F. Austin vs. (6) Lamar.  Predicted winner: Stephen F. Austin
3/10 – Semifinals
6 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) New Orleans vs. (5) Sam Houston State.  Predicted winner: New Orleans
8:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs. (3) Stephen F. Austin.  Predicted winner: Stephen F. Austin.
3/11 – Finals
9:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) New Orleans vs. (3) Stephen F. Austin.  Predicted winner:  New Orleans

Sun Belt (March 8, 10-12; New Orleans)
3/10 – Quarterfinals
12:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) UT-Arlington vs. (8) Coastal Carolina.  Predicted winner: UT-Arlington
3 p.m. (ESPN3) (4) Texas State vs. (12) Louisiana-Monroe.  Predicted winner: Texas State
6 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) Georgia State vs. (7) Louisiana-Lafayette.  Predicted winner: Louisiana-Lafayette
8:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (3) Georgia Southern vs. (6) Troy.  Predicted winner: Georgia Southern
3/11 – Semifinals
12:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) UT-Arlington vs. (4) Texas State.  Predicted winner: UT-Arlington
3 p.m. (ESPN3) (3) Georgia Southern vs. (7) Louisiana-Lafayette.  Predicted winner: Louisiana-Lafayette
3/12 – Finals
2 p.m. (ESPN) (1) UT-Arlington vs. (7) Louisiana-Lafayette.  Predicted winner:  UT-Arlington

SWAC (March 7, 10-11; quarterfinals at campus of higher seed, remaining games in Houston)
3/10 – Semifinals
3:30 p.m. (1) Texas Southern vs. (5) Grambling.  Predicted winner:  Texas Southern
9:30 p.m. (2) Alcorn State vs. (3) Southern.  Predicted winner:  Alcorn State
3/11 – Finals
6:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Texas Southern vs. (2) Alcorn State.  Predicted winner:  Texas Southern

WAC (March 9-11; Las Vegas)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
5 p.m. (4) Utah Valley vs. (5) Seattle.  Predicted winner: Utah Valley
7:30 p.m. (2) New Mexico State vs. (7) Chicago State.  Predicted winner: New Mexico State
10 p.m. (3) UMKC vs. (6) UT Rio Grande Valley.  Predicted winner: UMKC
3/10 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (1) Cal State Bakersfield vs. (4) Utah Valley.  Predicted winner: Cal State Bakersfield
11:30 p.m. (2) New Mexico State vs. (3) UMKC.  Predicted winner: New Mexico State
3/11 – Finals
11 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Cal State Bakersfield vs. (2) New Mexico State.  Predicted winner:  Cal State Bakersfield

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