Tuesday Top Ten: NCAA Tournament Edition

This year's NCAA Tournament brackets have been announced, and like the last few years, I think this will be another unpredictable NCAA Tournament.  While there are a handful of top teams, I still think this thing is wide open, and there are about ten teams who I think could legitimately win it all.  Or they could all lose before the end of the first weekend.  I have already filled out 95 brackets, and I don't feel good about a single one.  

Here are a couple initial random thoughts and fun facts:

• As with last year, I don't think any 1-seeds have an easy path to the Final Four.  I wouldn't be surprised if none of them make it to Glendale or if all four of them do.
• As always, I would not be surprised if all of the 12-seeds beat all of the 5-seeds.  Or none.  But I would be more surprised if none of them win.
• Of the 15 schools with 35 or more NCAA Tournament appearances (including this year) -- Kentucky, North Carolina, Kansas, UCLA, Duke, Syracuse, Indiana, Louisville, Villanova, Notre Dame, Texas, Michigan State, UConn, Arkansas, and Marquette -- seven didn't receive bids to this year's NCAA Tournament (UCLA, Syracuse, Indiana, Louisville, Villanova, Notre Dame, and Arkansas).
• A-10 champion Duquesne (the 11-seed in the East Region) is in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1977!  Amazingly, the 47-year span between NCAA Tournament appearances is not the longest span between appearances.  Here are the schools that have gone 40 or more years between NCAA Tournament appearances:
• 66 years:  Harvard (1946-2012)
• 54 years:  Yale (1962-2016)
• 47 years:
• Brown (1939-1986)
• Duquesne (1977-2024)
• Stanford (1942-1989)
• Wisconsin (1947-1994)
• 43 years:  Furman (1980-2023)
• 42 years:  Air Force (1962-2004)
• 41 years:  Iowa State (1944-1985)
• Of the 1-seeds, only UConn won its conference tournament, while the other three 1-seeds (Houston, North Carolina, and Purdue) got at-large bids.  This is only the fourth time this has happened, as far as I can tell.  Here are the other times it has happened.  Notably, the lone automatic bid 1-seed did not make it to the Final Four in any of those three years:
• 2009
• Louisville was the lone automatic bid 1-seed, and they lost in the Elite 8 to Michigan State
• At-large 1-seed North Carolina won the title
• 2012 
• Michigan State was the lone automatic bid 1-seed, and they lost in the Sweet 16 to Louisville
• At-large 1-seed Kentucky won the title
• 2019 
• Duke was the lone automatic bid 1-seed, and they lost to Michigan State in the Elite 8
• At-large 1-seed Virginia won the title
• One of the March Madness factoids that gets thrown around every year -- but which is still true -- is that no team that lost in the quarterfinals of its conference tournament has ever won the national championship.  Of course, before 2018, no 16-seed ever beat a 1-seed, but it's happened twice now.  But if you're someone who takes these kinds of things into account, here are this year's NCAA Tournament teams that lost in their conference tournament quarterfinals (or before, as noted):
• Midwest 2-seed Tennessee
• Midwest 3-seed Creighton
• South 3-seed Kentucky
• Midwest 4-seed Kansas (lost in second round of Big 12 Tournament)
• South 4-seed Duke
• West 4-seed Alabama
• Midwest 6-seed South Carolina
• East 6-seed BYU
• West 6-seed Clemson (lost in second round of ACC Tournament)
• Midwest 7-seed Texas (lost in second round of Big 12 Tournament)
• West 7-seed Dayton
• East 9-seed Northwestern
• Midwest 9-seed TCU
• West 9-seed Michigan State
• South 10-seed Boise State
• West 10-seed Nevada
• Here are the ten teams in this year's NCAA Tournament with the most tournament appearances, but no NCAA championship.  I'm including the team's seed and region in this year's tournament, the number of NCAA Tournament appearances, the overall rank in number of appearances, and last Final Four appearance, if applicable (* means a team has lost in a national title game, ** means the furthest the team has gone is the Final Four, and *** means the team has never been to a Final Four):
• Texas** - 7-seed Midwest:  38 appearances (9th overall); 2003
• Illinois* - 3-seed East:  34 appearances (T-16th overall); 2005
• Purdue* - 1-seed Midwest:  34 appearances (T-16th overall); 1980
• BYU*** - 6-seed East:  31 appearances (T-23rd overall); No Final Four
• Gonzaga* - 5-seed Midwest:  26 appearances (T-37th overall); 2021
• Tennessee*** - 2-seed Midwest:  26 appearances (T-37th overall); No Final Four
• Creighton*** - 3-seed Midwest:  25 appearances (T-42nd overall); No Final Four
• Houston* - 1-seed South:  25 appearances (T-42nd overall); 2021
• Alabama*** - 4-seed West:  24 appearances (T-44th overall); No Final Four
• Utah State*** - 8-seed Midwest:  24 appearances (T-44th overall); No Final Four
• Fuck Purdue

Anyway, as I do every year, here are a couple lists of five teams each in a few categories that you should consider when filling out your brackets.  Expect there to be some contradictions, since that's the nature of predicting the NCAA Tournament.  Teams are in seed order.  So you don't think I'm entirely full of shit (or perhaps to prove that I am), I'll put in parentheses what I correctly predicted last years.

Teams with the best shot at winning it all (last year, I did not have UConn on this list):

1.  Houston (1-seed South).  With 30 wins, Kelvin Sampson's Cougars have won 27+ games six times in the last seven years.  They are the best defensive team in the country, leading the nation in opponents' points per game (giving up a paltry 57 points per game), field goal percentage (opponents shoot only 37%), and turnover margin, as well as Top 20 in defensive three-point field goal percentage, steals, and turnovers forced (and they turn the ball over the seventh-fewest of any team in the country).  In their first year in the Big 12, they won the regular season title outright before losing to Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament title game.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  12-4

2.  UConn (1-seed South).  As the #1 overall seed and defending national champs, the Huskies are 31-3.  In a top-heavy Big East, they won the regular season title by four games, and they followed that up with a Big East Tournament title.  We all know that repeating as a national champ is very difficult to do -- since UCLA won 7 in a row from 1967 to 1973, only Duke in '91 and '92 and Florida in '06 and '07 have repeated -- but this team has the tools to join those rare ranks.  They're Top 25 in points per game, sixth in the nation in field goal percentage, fourth in assists per game, tenth in blocks per game, and Top 35 in three point percentage.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  7-2

3.  North Carolina (1-seed West).  The Tar Heels were the ACC outright regular season champs, and they have several players on the roster who were part of their Cinderella run to the national title game two years ago.  After missing the NCAA Tournament last year, seniors Armando Bacot and ACC Player of the Year RJ Davis are surely going to be hungry to cement their legacies.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  7-4

4.  Arizona (2-seed West).  The Wildcats won the Pac-12 regular season title outright, and they played a strong non-conference schedule.  They're big, scoring the third-most points in the paint in the country.  On top of that, they're third in the country in scoring (87.9 points per game), Top 25 in both field goal percentage and three point percentage, third in rebounds per game, second in assists per game, and Top 40 in steals per game.  There's no one in their region that they can't beat.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  9-5

5.  Tennessee (2-seed Midwest).  The Vols have been a Top 5 team for much of the year, and they won the regular season title outright in a strong SEC.  Northern Colorado transfer and SEC Player of the Year Dalton Knecht is a potential NBA lottery pick.  They don't have history on their side, as they lost in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, and no team that has ever lost in the quarterfinals of their conference tournament has won the NCAA title the same year.  That said, I think the Midwest Region is the weakest region, and Tennessee is good enough to beat anyone in the field.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  11-8

Final Four sleepers (teams seeded 4 or higher) (last year, I had UConn on this list, but did not have Florida Atlantic, Miami, or San Diego State on this list):

1.  Auburn (4-seed East).  SEC Tournament champ Auburn is on a six-game win streak heading into the tournament, beating three NCAA Tournament teams in the SEC Tournament.  They are a team that could give UConn trouble in the Sweet 16, especially if you consider the relatively weak schedule UConn played (only nine total games against NCAA Tournament teams).  They match up well with UConn, and Bruce Pearl has taken the Tigers to a Final Four before (in 2019).
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  7-6

2.  Alabama (4-seed West).  The Crimson Tide are kind is the nation's highest-scoring team, so they can run teams out of the gym.  They're also Top 40 in three point percentage, Top 10 in free throw percentage (shooting over 78% as a team), and Top 25 in rebounds per game.  After losing in the Sweet 16 as a 1-seed last year, Alabama is undoubtedly going to be hungry to prove themselves this year.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  7-10

3.  San Diego State (5-seed East).  The Aztecs made it to the NCAA title game last year as a 5-seed, so they know how to win, and they know how to win as an underdog.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  8-9

4.  Gonzaga (5-seed Midwest).  As noted above, I think the Midwest is the weakest region.  Mark Few always has the Bulldogs prepared in March, and I could see them knocking off Purdue in the Sweet 16 and then winning one more to get to Glendale.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  3-5

5.  Dayton (7-seed West).  The Flyers have been a Top 25 team for most of the year, and they have to be stinging from their A-10 Tournament quarterfinal loss to eventual tournament champ Duquesne.  They're solid on both sides of the ball  They are third in the country in three point percentage, Top 35 in field goal percentage, Top 30 in points allowed, and Top 50 in opponents' field goal percentage
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  5-3

Teams seeded 4 or better who may not make it to the second weekend (last year, I had Purdue and Virginia on this list):

1.  Purdue (1-seed Midwest).  The Boilermakers have a long and storied history . . . of underachieving in March.  Purdue has been a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament 16 times since seeding began in 1979, failing to advance to the Sweet 16 eight of those times.  Last year, they became the second 1-seed in NCAA Tournament history to lose to a 16-seed in the first round.  The year before, they made it the Sweet 16, only to be ousted by 15-seed St. Peter's.  The year before that, they lost to 13-seed North Texas in the first round.  Zach Edey is the likely national player of the year (again), but as Fairleigh Dickinson showed last year, if an opponent can limit his production and the role players on the team aren't hitting shots, the Boilers can be beaten.  Assuming they get past the winner of the Grambling/Montana State game, a second round matchup with either Utah State -- which won an outright regular season title in a very strong Mountain West and has been a Top 25 team for much of the year -- or TCU -- which finished in the middle of the Big 12, which is probably the strongest conference this year.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  14-3

2.  Iowa State (2-seed East).  The Cyclones won the Big 12 Tournament and are riding high, but they also have a spotty NCAA Tournament history.  Since 2000, they have been to 11 NCAA Tournaments.  During that time, they've lost to double-digit seeds in the first round more times (four) than they have been to the Sweet 16 (three).  Assuming they beat 15-seed South Dakota State in the first round -- and I don't think that's a guarantee -- they will face 7-seed Washington State (the runner-up in the Pac-12 regular season, who is probably underseeded) or 10-seed Drake (which won the MVC Tournament and has a big time player in Tucker DeVries).
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  10-4

3.  Alabama (4-seed West).  The Crimson Tide are kind of an enigma.  They've played some really good basketball this year in a strong SEC and they're the nation's highest-scoring team, but they've also lost four of their last six games.  First round opponent Charleston is no slouch, and if the Crimson Tide get past the Cougars, they will face either 5-seed St. Mary's -- which can slow any team down -- or 12-seed Grand Canyon -- which has only lost four games all year by a combined 23 points.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  7-10

4.  Auburn (4-seed East).  While the Tigers beat three NCAA Tournament teams in the SEC Tournament, the best seed they faced was SEC Tournament 5-seed South Carolina.  Ivy League champ Yale is their first round opponent, and the Bulldogs are, you know, smart.  If Auburn gets past Yale, they'll face either 5-seed (and defending national runner-up) San Diego State or 12-seed UAB, which won the AAC Tournament and has beaten a few NCAA Tournament teams this year.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  7-6

5.  Duke (4-seed South).  Duke is always a team that can either win it all or lose in the first round.  The ACC is down this year (only five bids, and NC State only got in because they won the ACC Tournament).  The Blue Devils' first-round matchup against Vermont is not a gimme, but they'll likely win that won and have to face 5-seed Wisconsin -- who is playing well lately and proved they could beat anyone on a neutral court with their Big Ten Tournament semifinal win over Purdue -- or 12-seed James Madison -- who won 31 games this year and hasn't lost since January 27.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  5-4

Teams seeded 12 or higher with the best chance of pulling an upset in the first round (last year, I did not have Fairleigh Dickinson, Furman, or Princeton on this list):

1.  James Madison (12-seed South).  As mentioned above, the Dukes have won 31 games this year, currently have the nation's longest winning streak at 13, and were ranked as high as #18 earlier in the year.  They haven't lost since January, and their three losses this season came by a combined 20 points.  They're Top 10 in the country in scoring (84.4 points per game), 16th in steals per game, 24th in assists per game, 26th in field goal percentage, 38th in rebound margin, 39th in three point percentage, and 41st in rebounds per game.  Their opponent in the first round, 5-seed Wisconsin, is beatable.  The Badgers were middle of the pack or below in a less-than-stellar Big Ten in most statistical categories, don't rebound the ball well, have lost in the first round as a 5-seed in 2013 and 2019 (and lost to 11-seed Iowa State in the second round last year), and haven't made it to the second weekend since 2016.  Also, if you recall, the Dukes knocked off then-#4 Michigan State in East Lansing to start the season.  And here's another weird but fun fact:  the last three Sun Belt teams who were 12-seeds won their first round games, including two over Big Ten teams:  (1) Western Kentucky in 2008 over Drake; (2) Western Kentucky in 2009 over Illinois; and (3) Little Rock in 2016 over Purdue.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  3-0

2.  McNeese (12-seed Midwest).  The Cowboys are one of only a handful of teams that have won 30 games this season, currently sitting at 31-3.  Their three losses were by a combined 14 points, and they have only lost once since Thanksgiving.  They're also tied for second in the country in opponents' field goal percentage (holding their opponents to 38.5% from the field), third in turnover margin, and fifth in defensive scoring (allowing only 61.5 points per game).  First round opponent 5-seed Gonzaga is good, but not great, this year.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  0-0

3.  Samford (13-seed Midwest).  The Bulldogs cruised through the A-Sun and have a 29-5 record.  They turn teams over, play at a fast pace, are fifth in the country in scoring (86 points per game), and are top 15 in the country in point differential.  Their first round opponent is 4-seed Kansas, who is dealing with some major injuries.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  0-1

4.  Colgate (14-seed West).  The Raiders are playing in their fourth NCAA Tournament in a row, and they have only lost twice in 2024.  They play good defense, and more importantly, they're a balanced team that shoots well from long range.  Baylor is their first round opponent, and since winning the NCAA championship in 2021, the Bears have bowed out in the second round each of the last two years to lower seeds. 
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  1-3

5.  Morehead State (14-seed East).  Admittedly, this is a longshot, but after a three-game losing streak in mid-February, the Eagles finished strong, winning their next six, en route to an OVC Tournament championship.  They play 3-seed Illinois in the first round.  The Illini have not advanced to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament since they lost in the 2005 title game.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  0-2