The Big Ten Tournament starts this evening in Indianapolis, and the consensus around the country is that, top-to-bottom, the Big Ten is the strongest conference in the country. The conference should get ten teams in the NCAA Tournament, and it's possible that an eleventh could squeak in.
Only five games separated first place and eleventh place, which is pretty impressive considering that, going back to when Penn State joined the league in 1993 (to go from 10 to 11 teams in the conference), the next closest is a 7-game difference in 2017. The conference also currently holds the top 9, 11 of the top 12, and 12 of the top 17 strongest schedules according to the BPI strength of schedule metric. All 14 teams currently have a top 30 strength of schedule.
All of this is to say that there are no gimme games in the Big Ten Tournament, and pretty much any team can beat any other team -- even Nebraska, who has added two players from the football team to its roster to make up for the indefinite suspension of Dachon Burke, Jr. and Cam Mack.
Anywho, below is the Big Ten Tournament schedule (with my predictions) and then a look at each Big Ten team's realistic NCAA Tournament chances, both getting in and seeding-wise.
Only five games separated first place and eleventh place, which is pretty impressive considering that, going back to when Penn State joined the league in 1993 (to go from 10 to 11 teams in the conference), the next closest is a 7-game difference in 2017. The conference also currently holds the top 9, 11 of the top 12, and 12 of the top 17 strongest schedules according to the BPI strength of schedule metric. All 14 teams currently have a top 30 strength of schedule.
All of this is to say that there are no gimme games in the Big Ten Tournament, and pretty much any team can beat any other team -- even Nebraska, who has added two players from the football team to its roster to make up for the indefinite suspension of Dachon Burke, Jr. and Cam Mack.
Anywho, below is the Big Ten Tournament schedule (with my predictions) and then a look at each Big Ten team's realistic NCAA Tournament chances, both getting in and seeding-wise.
Big Ten Tournament Schedule
Below are my predictions for the Big Ten Tournament, as well as the dates/times/TV schedule. All times are Eastern.
3/11 – First Round
6 p.m. (BTN) (12) Minnesota vs. (13) Northwestern
8:30 p.m. (BTN) (11) Indiana vs. (14)
3/12 – Second Round
12 p.m. (BTN) (8) Rutgers vs. (9) Michigan
2:30 p.m. (BTN) (5) Iowa vs. (12) Minnesota. Predicted winner: Iowa
6:30 p.m. (BTN) (7) Ohio State vs. (10) Purdue
9 p.m. (BTN) (6) Penn State vs. (11) Indiana. Predicted winner: Indiana
3/13 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (BTN) (1) Wisconsin vs. (9) Michigan
2:30 p.m. (BTN) (4) Illinois vs. (5) Iowa. Predicted winner: Iowa
6:30 p.m. (BTN) (2) Michigan State vs. (7) Ohio State. Predicted winner: Michigan State
9 p.m. (BTN) (3) Maryland vs. (11) Indiana. Predicted winner: Indiana
3/14 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) Wisconsin vs. (5) Iowa. Predicted winner: Wisconsin
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (2) Michigan State vs. (6) Indiana. Predicted winner: Michigan State
3/15 – Finals
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (1) Wisconsin vs. (2) Michigan State. Predicted winner: Michigan State
NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams
Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume -- in the order of seeding -- including each (1) team's record, (2) BPI ranking (based on ESPN's BPI rankings), (3) NET ranking (based on the NCAA's NET rankings), (4) BPI strength of schedule, (5) other than for Minnesota, Northwestern, and Nebraska, NET Quadrant 1 and 2 record (for an explanation of the NET rankings and the Quadrants, click here, and note that the Quadrants don't include record against non-D1 opponents), Quadrant 1 and 2 wins, Quadrant 3 and 4 losses, (6) current NCAA Tournament chances (In, Out, or Bubble), (7) potential NCAA Tournament seeding range, (8) realistic best-case scenario, and (9) realistic worst-case scenario. An * means the game was played on a neutral court.
1. Wisconsin
Overall record: 21-10
BPI: 21
BPI: 21
NET ranking: 24
BPI strength of schedule: 4
Quadrant 1 record: 9-8
Quadrant 2 record: 4-1
Quadrant 2 record: 4-1
Quadrant 1 and 2 wins: Michigan State (7), at Ohio State (16), Ohio State (16), Maryland (18), at Michigan (25), Marquette (26), Rutgers (32), Purdue (33), at Penn State (35), Minnesota (44), Indiana (59), at Indiana (59), at Tennessee (63)
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: New Mexico* (142)
Current NCAA Tournament chances: In
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 2-6
Realistic best-case scenario: Win the Big Ten Tournament, which would extend the Badgers' winning streak to 11 games and could get them a 2- or 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament, depending on how other conference tournaments shake out.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose their quarterfinal game to Michigan or Rutgers and drop to a 5- or 6-seed.
2. Michigan State
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: New Mexico* (142)
Current NCAA Tournament chances: In
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 2-6
Realistic best-case scenario: Win the Big Ten Tournament, which would extend the Badgers' winning streak to 11 games and could get them a 2- or 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament, depending on how other conference tournaments shake out.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose their quarterfinal game to Michigan or Rutgers and drop to a 5- or 6-seed.
2. Michigan State
Overall record: 22-9
BPI: 4
NET ranking: 7BPI: 4
BPI strength of schedule: 6
Quadrant 1 record: 8-7
Quadrant 2 record: 6-2
Quadrant 1 and 2 wins: at Seton Hall (15), Ohio State (16), at Maryland (18), Wisconsin (24), Michigan (25), Rutgers (32), Iowa (34), at Penn State (35), at Illinois (39), Illinois (39), Minnesota (44), at Minnesota (44), UCLA* (76), Georgia* (95)
Quadrant 2 record: 6-2
Quadrant 1 and 2 wins: at Seton Hall (15), Ohio State (16), at Maryland (18), Wisconsin (24), Michigan (25), Rutgers (32), Iowa (34), at Penn State (35), at Illinois (39), Illinois (39), Minnesota (44), at Minnesota (44), UCLA* (76), Georgia* (95)
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: None
Current NCAA Tournament chances: In
Current NCAA Tournament chances: In
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 2-4
Realistic best-case scenario: Win the Big Ten Tournament and get a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose the quarterfinal game against Ohio State or Purdue and drop to a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
BPI: 31
Realistic best-case scenario: Win the Big Ten Tournament and get a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose the quarterfinal game against Ohio State or Purdue and drop to a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
3. Maryland
Overall record: 24-7
BPI: 12
BPI: 12
NET ranking: 18
BPI strength of schedule: 12
BPI strength of schedule: 12
Quadrant 1 record: 7-6
Quadrant 2 record: 7-0
Quadrant 2 record: 7-0
Quadrant 1 and 2 wins: at Michigan State (7), Ohio State (16), Michigan (25), Marquette* (26), Rutgers (32), Purdue (33), Iowa (34), Illinois (39), at Illinois (39), at Minnesota (44), Notre Dame (56), Rhode Island (57), Indiana (59), at Indiana (59)
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: None
Current NCAA Tournament chances: In
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 2-5
Realistic best-case scenario: Win the Big Ten Tournament and get a 2- or 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose their quarterfinal game and potentially drop to a 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: None
Current NCAA Tournament chances: In
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 2-5
Realistic best-case scenario: Win the Big Ten Tournament and get a 2- or 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose their quarterfinal game and potentially drop to a 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
4. Illinois
Overall record: 21-10
BPI: 34
BPI: 34
NET ranking: 39
BPI strength of schedule: 23
Quadrant 1 record: 5-8
Quadrant 2 record: 5-1
Quadrant 2 record: 5-1
Quadrant 1 and 2 wins: at Wisconsin (24), Michigan (25), at Michigan (25), Rutgers (32), Purdue (33), at Purdue (33), Iowa (34), at Penn State (35), Minnesota (44), Indiana (59)
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: Miami (103)
Current NCAA Tournament chances: In
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 5-9
Realistic best-case scenario: Beat Iowa in the quarterfinals and then surprise Wisconsin in the semifinals to move up as high as a 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose in the quarterfinals to Iowa and drop to a dreaded 8- or 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: Miami (103)
Current NCAA Tournament chances: In
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 5-9
Realistic best-case scenario: Beat Iowa in the quarterfinals and then surprise Wisconsin in the semifinals to move up as high as a 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose in the quarterfinals to Iowa and drop to a dreaded 8- or 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
5. Iowa
Overall record: 20-11
BPI: 27
BPI: 27
NET ranking: 34
BPI strength of schedule: 5
Quadrant 1 record: 7-7
Quadrant 2 record: 6-2
Quadrant 2 record: 6-2
Quadrant 1 and 2 wins: Ohio State (16), Maryland (18), Texas Tech* (22), Michigan (25), Wisconsin (24), Rutgers (32), Penn State (35), Illinois (39), Minnesota (44), at Minnesota (44), Cincinnati* (51), at Syracuse (64), at Iowa State (98)
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: DePaul (87), at Nebraska (197)
Current NCAA Tournament chances: In
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 4-8
Realistic best-case scenario: Beat Illinois in the quarterfinals and then surprise Wisconsin in the semifinals to move up as high as a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose to Minnesota in the second round and drop to an 8-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: DePaul (87), at Nebraska (197)
Current NCAA Tournament chances: In
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 4-8
Realistic best-case scenario: Beat Illinois in the quarterfinals and then surprise Wisconsin in the semifinals to move up as high as a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose to Minnesota in the second round and drop to an 8-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
6. Penn State
Overall record: 21-10
BPI: 28
NET ranking: 35BPI: 28
BPI strength of schedule: 17
Quadrant 1 record: 7-7
Quadrant 2 record: 6-2
Quadrant 2 record: 6-2
Quadrant 1 and 2 wins: at Michigan State (7), Maryland (18), Ohio State (16), at Michigan (25), Rutgers (32), at Purdue (33), Iowa* (34), Minnesota (44), Alabama (54), Indiana (59),at Georgetown (62), Syracuse* (64), Yale (70)
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: at Northwestern (159)
Current NCAA Tournament chances: In
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 4-8
Realistic best-case scenario: Win a second round game against Indiana, upset Maryland in the quarterfinals, and shock Michigan State in the semis, which would bring Penn State up to a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Fall to an 8-seed in the NCAA Tournament with a second-round loss.
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: at Northwestern (159)
Current NCAA Tournament chances: In
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 4-8
Realistic best-case scenario: Win a second round game against Indiana, upset Maryland in the quarterfinals, and shock Michigan State in the semis, which would bring Penn State up to a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Fall to an 8-seed in the NCAA Tournament with a second-round loss.
7. Ohio State
Overall record: 21-10
BPI: 9
NET ranking: 16BPI: 9
BPI strength of schedule: 7
Quadrant 1 record: 5-9
Quadrant 2 record: 7-1
Quadrant 2 record: 7-1
Quadrant 1 and 2 wins: Villanova (13), Maryland (18), Kentucky* (21), Michigan (25), at Michigan (25), Rutgers (32), Purdue (33), Penn State (35), Illinois (39), Cincinnati (51), Indiana (59), at North Carolina (81)
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses:
Current NCAA Tournament chances: In
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 3-7
Realistic best-case scenario: Beat Purdue in the second round, Michigan State in the quarterfinals, and Maryland in the semis, and use the strength of that BPI and NET ranking to move up to a 3-seed in the Big Dance, depending on how similarly ranked teams in other conference tournaments do.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose to Purdue in the quarterfinals and drop to a 7-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses:
Current NCAA Tournament chances: In
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 3-7
Realistic best-case scenario: Beat Purdue in the second round, Michigan State in the quarterfinals, and Maryland in the semis, and use the strength of that BPI and NET ranking to move up to a 3-seed in the Big Dance, depending on how similarly ranked teams in other conference tournaments do.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose to Purdue in the quarterfinals and drop to a 7-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
8. Rutgers
Overall record: 20-11
NET ranking: 32
BPI strength of schedule: 30
Quadrant 1 record: 4-9
Quadrant 2 record: 5-1
Quadrant 2 record: 5-1
Quadrant 1 and 2 wins: Seton Hall (15), Maryland (18), Wisconsin (24), at Purdue (33), Purdue (33), Penn State (35), Illinois (39), Minnesota (44), Indiana (59)
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: St. Bonaventure* (121)
Current NCAA Tournament chances: Bubble
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 7 to out
Realistic best-case scenario: Beat Michigan in the second round and shock Wisconsin in the quarterfinals to secure the Scarlet Knights' first NCAA Tournament berth since 1991.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose the first game to Michigan and then sweat out the remainder of Championship Week, hoping other bubble teams lose.
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: St. Bonaventure* (121)
Current NCAA Tournament chances: Bubble
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 7 to out
Realistic best-case scenario: Beat Michigan in the second round and shock Wisconsin in the quarterfinals to secure the Scarlet Knights' first NCAA Tournament berth since 1991.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose the first game to Michigan and then sweat out the remainder of Championship Week, hoping other bubble teams lose.
9. Michigan
Overall record: 19-12
BPI: 18
NET ranking: 25BPI: 18
BPI strength of schedule: 1
Quadrant 1 record: 6-10
Quadrant 2 record: 5-2
Quadrant 2 record: 5-2
Quadrant 1 and 2 wins: Gonzaga* (3), Michigan State (7), Creighton (11), Rutgers* (32), at Rutgers (32), at Purdue (33), Purdue (33), Iowa (34), Indiana (59), North Carolina* (81), Iowa State* (98)
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: None
Current NCAA Tournament chances: In
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 3-8
Realistic best-case scenario: Beat Rutgers in the second round, Wisconsin in the quarterfinals, and Iowa or Illinois in the semis to advance to the title game to face Michigan State or Maryland, with a chance for as high as a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament if they can pull off a not-totally-unlikely title run in the Big Ten Tournament.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose to Rutgers in the first game and drop to a 7- or 8-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: None
Current NCAA Tournament chances: In
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 3-8
Realistic best-case scenario: Beat Rutgers in the second round, Wisconsin in the quarterfinals, and Iowa or Illinois in the semis to advance to the title game to face Michigan State or Maryland, with a chance for as high as a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament if they can pull off a not-totally-unlikely title run in the Big Ten Tournament.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose to Rutgers in the first game and drop to a 7- or 8-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
10. Purdue
Overall record: 16-15
NET ranking: 33
BPI strength of schedule: 3
Quadrant 1 record: 4-10
Quadrant 2 record: 5-4
Quadrant 2 record: 5-4
Quadrant 1 and 2 wins: Michigan State (7), Wisconsin (24), at Iowa (34), Iowa (34), Minnesota (44), Virginia (42), Indiana (59), at Indiana (59), VCU* (65)
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: at Nebraska (197)
Current NCAA Tournament chances: Bubble
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 11 to out
Realistic best-case scenario: Beat Ohio State in the second round, Michigan State in the quarterfinals, and Maryland, Penn State, or Indiana in the semis, to ensure a better than .533 winning percentage -- which is the lowest winning percentage for a team that has ever received an at-large bid. Anything less than that, and the Boilers are likely not going to the NCAA Tournament.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose the first game to Ohio State and head to the NIT.
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: at Nebraska (197)
Current NCAA Tournament chances: Bubble
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 11 to out
Realistic best-case scenario: Beat Ohio State in the second round, Michigan State in the quarterfinals, and Maryland, Penn State, or Indiana in the semis, to ensure a better than .533 winning percentage -- which is the lowest winning percentage for a team that has ever received an at-large bid. Anything less than that, and the Boilers are likely not going to the NCAA Tournament.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose the first game to Ohio State and head to the NIT.
11. Indiana
Overall record: 19-12
NET ranking: 59
BPI strength of schedule: 11
Quadrant 1 record: 4-10
Quadrant 2 record: 5-2
Quadrant 2 record: 5-2
Quadrant 1 and 2 wins: Michigan State (7), Florida State (10), Ohio State (16), Iowa (34), Penn State (35), Minnesota (44), at Minnesota (44), Notre Dame* (56), UConn* (60)
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: None
Current NCAA Tournament chances: Bubble
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 9 to out
Realistic best-case scenario: Beat Nebraska in the first round, Penn State in the second round, and then Maryland in the quarterfinals to secure an NCAA berth and get out of "Last Four In" territory.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose the first round game to Nebraska or even the second round game to Penn State and then get relegated to the NIT.
Quadrant 3 and 4 losses: None
Current NCAA Tournament chances: Bubble
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: 9 to out
Realistic best-case scenario: Beat Nebraska in the first round, Penn State in the second round, and then Maryland in the quarterfinals to secure an NCAA berth and get out of "Last Four In" territory.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose the first round game to Nebraska or even the second round game to Penn State and then get relegated to the NIT.
12. Minnesota
Overall record: 14-16
BPI: 33
BPI: 33
NET ranking: 44
BPI strength of schedule: 2
Current NCAA Tournament chances: Out
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: None
Realistic best-case scenario: Win three games -- which isn't out of the question -- before bowing out in the semifinals and just missing the NIT.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose to Northwestern in the first round, and Richard Pitino gets fired.
Realistic best-case scenario: Win three games -- which isn't out of the question -- before bowing out in the semifinals and just missing the NIT.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Lose to Northwestern in the first round, and Richard Pitino gets fired.
Overall record: 8-22
BPI: 135
NET ranking: 159
BPI strength of schedule: 9
BPI strength of schedule: 9
Current NCAA Tournament chances: Out
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: None
Realistic best-case scenario: Win one game
Realistic worst-case scenario: Get embarrassed by Minnesota in the first round, resulting in Doug Collins getting fired.
Realistic best-case scenario: Win one game
Realistic worst-case scenario: Get embarrassed by Minnesota in the first round, resulting in Doug Collins getting fired.
14. Nebraska
Overall record: 7-24
BPI: 168
BPI: 168
NET ranking: 197
BPI strength of schedule: 8
Current NCAA Tournament chances: Out
Potential seeding range in NCAA Tournament: None
Realistic best-case scenario: With only seven scholarship players playing and two of their top three scorers suspended, losing by less than 15 would be a realistic best-case scenario.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Get destroyed by Indiana and twiddle thumbs until football season.
Realistic best-case scenario: With only seven scholarship players playing and two of their top three scorers suspended, losing by less than 15 would be a realistic best-case scenario.
Realistic worst-case scenario: Get destroyed by Indiana and twiddle thumbs until football season.
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