Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

It was a busy and important weekend in Big Ten basketball.  On Saturday, Michigan State upset first-place Maryland in College Park. 78-66, to put some further pressure on the Terps, as they are now only one game ahead of MSU, Illinois, and Wisconsin for first place, with two games left.  One more win clinches a tie for the Big Ten title for Maryland, and if they win both of their remaining games, they will win the title outright.  In the other game on Saturday, Iowa held off Penn State, 77-68, at home.

Yesterday, IU lost a heartbreaker at Illinois, 67-66, thanks to some questionable no-calls in the last few minutes.  Elsewhere, Ohio State beat Michigan at home, 77-63, Northwestern picked up the last-place tiebreaker over Nebraska with a hard-fought 81-76 OT win in Lincoln, and Minnesota let a lead slip away in Madison against Wisconsin, to lose 71-69 and essentially seal Minnesota's fate as far as an at large bid to the Big Dance.

If my predictions hold true -- which I think we both know is unlikely -- there will be a four-way tie for second place in the Big Ten.  By the way, Big Ten teams now own 7 of the 8 hardest strengths of schedule in college basketball (and 11 of the top 15).

Next games

The next games take place Tuesday (all times Eastern):

-Maryland at Rutgers (7:00 p.m.; BTN)
-Michigan State at Penn State (7:00 p.m.; ESPN)
-Purdue at Iowa (9:00 p.m.; BTN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Maryland (13-5):  at Rutgers (L); Michigan (W)

2 (tie).  Illinois (12-6):  at Ohio State (L); Iowa (W)
2 (tie).  Michigan State (12-6):  at Penn State (L); Ohio State (W)
2 (tie).  Wisconsin (12-6):  Northwestern (W); at Indiana (L)

5 (tie).  Iowa (11-7):  Purdue (W); at Illinois (L)

5 (tie).  Penn State (11-7):  Michigan State (W); at Northwestern (W)
7.  Ohio State (10-8):  Illinois (W); at Michigan State (L)

8 (tie).  Michigan (9-9):  Nebraska (W); at Maryland (L)

8 (tie).  Rutgers (9-9):  Maryland (W); at Purdue (L)

10 (tie).  Indiana (8-10):  Minnesota (W); Wisconsin (W)

10 (tie).  Purdue (8-10):  at Iowa (L); Rutgers (W)

12.  Minnesota (7-11):  at Indiana (L); Nebraska (W)

13 (tie).  Nebraska (2-16):  at Michigan (L); at Minnesota (L)

13 (tie).  Northwestern (2-16):  at Wisconsin (L); Penn State (L)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Maryland (14-6)

2.  Penn State (13-7) (Get ready for a complicated tiebreaker. All teams have a .500 record against the other three teams with a 13-7 record.  Penn State and Wisconsin both have a 1-0 record vs. Maryland, while MSU is 1-1, and Illinois is 0-2.  Penn State has a 1-1 record against Iowa, while Wisconsin has an 0-1 record.)
3.  Wisconsin (13-7) 
4.  Michigan State (13-7)
5.  Illinois (13-7)

6.  Iowa (12-8)
7.  Ohio State (11-9)
8.  Michigan (10-10) (has tiebreaker over IU and Rutgers based on 3-0 record against other two teams, while Rutgers has 1-2 record and IU has 0-2 record)

9.  Rutgers (10-10)
10.  Indiana (10-10)

11.  Purdue (9-11)

12.  Minnesota (8-12)
13.  Northwestern (2-18) (has tiebreaker over Nebraska based on 2-0 head-to-head record)

14.  Nebraska (2-18)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

In the past, I have also included far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, but, like the last couple years, I'm not even going to try to do that this year until the seeds are more finalized.  However, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament, which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 11 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (6 p.m. BTN)

(11) vs. (14) (8:30 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 12 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Friday March 13 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 14 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 15 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's BPI ranking (based on ESPN's BPI rankings), NET ranking (based on the NCAA's NET rankings), overall record against D-1 opponents, BPI strength of schedule, and record against all four NET Quadrants (for an explanation of the NET rankings and the Quadrants, click here, and note that the Quadrants don't include record against non-D1 opponents).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  For the "In" and "Out" teams, I'm putting them in order based on NET ranking.  For the "Bubble" teams, I am putting them in order based on what I think their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament is (which may or may not fall in line with the NET or BPI rankings).  For the "Out" teams, I'm just listing the BPI and NET ranking (and record), since their quality wins or bad losses are pretty much irrelevant given their records.

In

1.  Michigan State

BPI:  4

NET ranking:  7

Overall record:  20-9

BPI strength of schedule:  8

Quadrant 1 record: 7-8

-Wins:  at Seton Hall (12), at Maryland (15), Michigan (24), Iowa (29), Wisconsin (30), at Illinois (36), at Minnesota (46)
-Losses:  Duke (6), Kentucky* (14), Maryland (15), at Michigan (24), Penn State (26), at Wisconsin (30), at Purdue (35), at Indiana (54)
Quadrant 2 record:  5-1
-Wins:  Rutgers (34), Illinois (36), Minnesota (46), UCLA* (76), Georgia* (83)
-Losses:  Virginia Tech* (87)
Quadrant 3 record:  2-0
-Wins:  at Northwestern (175), at Nebraska (195)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (175), Eastern Michigan (184), Oakland* (223), Western Michigan (239), Charleston Southern (317), Binghamton (332)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

2.  Maryland

BPI:  11

NET ranking:  15
Overall record:  23-6
BPI strength of schedule:  12

Quadrant 1 record: 7-6

-Wins:  at Michigan State (7), Ohio State (16), Marquette* (25), Iowa (29), at Illinois (36), at Minnesota (46), at Indiana (54)
-Losses:  Michigan State (7), at Seton Hall (12), at Ohio State (16), at Penn State (26), at Iowa (29), at Wisconsin (30)
Quadrant 2 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Rutgers (34), Purdue (35), Illinois (36), Rhode Island (51), Indiana (54), Notre Dame (58)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 3 record:  3-0
-Wins:  Harvard* (103), Temple* (112), at Northwestern (175)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  7-0
-Wins:  George Mason (159), Northwestern (175), Nebraska (195), Oakland (223), Bryant (237), Fairfield (286), Holy Cross (343)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

3.  Ohio State

BPI:  9

NET ranking:  16

Overall record:  20-9

BPI strength of schedule:  15

Quadrant 1 record:  6-8

-Wins:  Kentucky* (14), Maryland (15), Villanova (17), Michigan (24), at Michigan (24), Penn State (26)
-Losses:  at Maryland (15), West Virginia* (21), at Penn State (26), at Iowa (29), Wisconsin (30), at Wisconsin (30), at Minnesota (46), at Indiana (54)
Quadrant 2 record:  5-1
-Wins:  Rutgers (34), Purdue (35), Cincinnati (53), Indiana (54), at North Carolina (85)
-Losses:  Minnesota (46)
Quadrant 3 record:  3-0
-Wins:  Kent State (126), at Northwestern (175), at Nebraska (195)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Nebraska (195), UMass Lowell (270), Purdue Fort Wayne (279), Stetson (303), Morgan State (306), Southeast Missouri State (342)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

4.  Michigan

BPI:  19

NET ranking:  24

Overall record:  18-11

BPI strength of schedule:  2

Quadrant 1 record:  7-10

-Wins:  Gonzaga* (2), Michigan State (7), Creighton (13), Iowa (29), Rutgers* (34), at Rutgers (34), at Purdue (35)
-Losses:  at Michigan State (7), at Louisville (8), Ohio State (16), at Ohio State (16), Oregon (18), Penn State (26), at Iowa (29), Wisconsin (30), at Illinois (36), at Minnesota (46)
Quadrant 2 record:  4-1
-Wins:  Purdue (35), Indiana (54), North Carolina* (85), Iowa State* (88)
-Losses:  Illinois (36)
Quadrant 3 record:  2-0
-Wins:  at Northwestern (175), at Nebraska (195)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  5-0
-Wins:  Appalachian State (176), Elon (253), UMass Lowell (270), Presbyterian (327), Houston Baptist (345)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

5.  Penn State

BPI:  22

NET ranking:  26

Overall record:  21-8

BPI strength of schedule:  17

Quadrant 1 record: 7-6
-Wins:  at Michigan State (7), Maryland (15), Ohio State (16), at Michigan (24), Iowa* (29), at Purdue (35), at Georgetown (60)
-Losses:  at Ohio State (16), at Iowa (29), Wisconsin (30), at Rutgers (34), at Minnesota (46), at Indiana (54)
Quadrant 2 record:  6-2
-Wins:  Rutgers (34), Alabama (42), Minnesota (46), Indiana (54), Yale (63), Syracuse* (71)
-Losses:  Illinois (36), Mississippi* (93)
Quadrant 3 record:  2-0
-Wins:  Wake Forest (100), at Nebraska (195)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (175), Bucknell (241), Cornell (307), Wagner (330), Central Connecticut State (347), Maryland-Eastern Shore (349)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

6.  Iowa

BPI:  24

NET ranking:  29

Overall record:  20-9

BPI strength of schedule:  5

Quadrant 1 record: 8-7

-Wins:  Maryland (15), Ohio State (16), Texas Tech* (23), Michigan (24), Penn State (26), Wisconsin (30), at Minnesota (46), at Syracuse (71) 
-Losses:  San Diego State* (4), at Michigan State (7), at Maryland (15), at Michigan (24), Penn State (26), at Purdue (35), at Indiana (54)
Quadrant 2 record:  5-0
-Wins:  Rutgers (34), Illinois (36), Minnesota (46), Cincinnati* (53), at Iowa State (88)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 3 record:  3-2
-Wins:  Oral Roberts (151), North Florida (155), at Northwestern (175)
-Losses:  DePaul (81), at Nebraska (195)
Quadrant 4 record:  4-0
-Wins:  Nebraska (195), Cal Poly (324), SIU-Edwardsville (337), Kennesaw State (352)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

7.  Wisconsin

BPI:  25

NET ranking:  30

Overall record:  19-10

BPI strength of schedule:  3

Quadrant 1 record:  8-8

-Wins:  Michigan State (7), Maryland (15), at Ohio State (16), Ohio State (16), at Michigan (24), Marquette (25), at Penn State (26), at Tennessee (69)
-Losses:  at Michigan State (7), at Iowa (29), St. Mary's* (31), at Rutgers (34), at Purdue (35), at Minnesota (46), Richmond* (48), at NC State (55)
Quadrant 2 record:  4-1
-Wins:  Rutgers (34), Purdue (35), Minnesota (46), Indiana (54)
-Losses:  Illinois (36)
Quadrant 3 record:  1-1
-Wins:  at Nebraska (195)
-Losses:  New Mexico* (148)
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Rider (190), Nebraska (195), Green Bay (226), Eastern Illinois (235), Milwaukee (264), McNeese State (289)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

8.  Rutgers

BPI:  35

NET ranking:  34

Overall record:  18-11

BPI strength of schedule:  36

Quadrant 1 record:  3-9

-Wins:  Seton Hall (12), Penn State (26), Wisconsin (30)
-Losses:  at Michigan State (7), at Maryland (15), at Ohio State (16), Michigan* (24), Michigan (24), at Penn State (26), at Iowa (29), at Wisconsin (30), at Illinois (36)
Quadrant 2 record:  4-1
-Wins:  Purdue (35), Illinois (36), Minnesota (46), Indiana (54) 
-Losses:  at Pittsburgh (109)
Quadrant 3 record:  3-1
-Wins:  Stephen F. Austin (80), UMass (142), at Nebraska (195)
-Losses:  St. Bonaventure* (116)
Quadrant 4 record:  7-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (175), Nebraska (195), Lafayette (222), Drexel (234), Bryant (237), Niagara (302), NJIT (311)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  1-0

9.  Illinois

BPI:  33

NET ranking:  36

Overall record:  20-9

BPI strength of schedule:  27

Quadrant 1 record: 5-7

-Wins:  Michigan (24), at Michigan (24), at Penn State (26), at Wisconsin (30), at Purdue (35)
-Losses:  at Michigan State (7), Michigan State (7), at Arizona (10), at Maryland (15), Maryland (15), at Iowa (29), at Rutgers (34)
Quadrant 2 record:  4-1
-Wins:  Rutgers (34), Purdue (35), Minnesota (46), Indiana (54)
-Losses:  Missouri* (92)
Quadrant 3 record:  2-1
-Wins:  Old Dominion (164), at Northwestern (175)
-Losses:  Miami (108)
Quadrant 4 record:  8-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (175), Nebraska (195), Nicholls State (203), Hawaii (217), North Carolina A&T (269), at Grand Canyon (278), Hampton (321), The Citadel (338)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  1-0

Bubble

10.  Indiana

BPI:  39

NET ranking:  54

Overall record:  18-11

BPI strength of schedule:  6

Quadrant 1 record:  6-9

-Wins:  Michigan State (7), Florida State (11), Ohio State (16), Penn State (26), Iowa (29), at Minnesota (46)
-Losses:  at Maryland (15), Maryland (15), at Ohio State (16), at Michigan (24), at Penn State (26), at Wisconsin (30), at Rutgers (34), at Purdue (35), at Illinois (36)
Quadrant 2 record:  2-2
-Wins:  Notre Dame* (58), UConn* (61)
-Losses:  Purdue (35), Arkansas (47)
Quadrant 3 record:  4-0
-Wins:  Louisiana Tech (94), South Dakota State (119), Princeton (154), at Nebraska (195)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (175), Portland State (185), Nebraska (195), Troy (271), North Alabama (292), Western Illinois (336)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

11.  Purdue

BPI:  18

NET ranking:  35

Overall record:  15-14

BPI strength of schedule:  4

Quadrant 1 record:  4-11

-Wins:  Michigan State (7), Iowa (29), Wisconsin (30), at Indiana (54)
-Losses:  Florida State* (11), at Maryland (15), at Ohio State (16), Butler* (20), at Michigan (24), Michigan (24), at Marquette (25), Penn State (26), at Wisconsin (30), at Rutgers (34), at Illinois (36)
Quadrant 2 record:  4-2
-Wins:  Minnesota (46), Virginia (50), Indiana (54), VCU* (56) 
-Losses:  Illinois (36), Texas (59)
Quadrant 3 record:  1-1
-Wins:  at Northwestern (175)
-Losses:  at Nebraska (195)
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Ohio (166), Northwestern (175), Central Michigan (201), Green Bay (226), Jacksonville State (282), Chicago State (353)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

12.  Minnesota

BPI:  34

NET ranking:  46

Overall record:  13-15

BPI strength of schedule:  1
Quadrant 1 record:  5-12

-Wins:  Ohio State (16), at Ohio State (16), Michigan (24), Penn State (26), Wisconsin (30)

-Losses:  at Michigan State (7), Michigan State (7), Maryland (15), at Butler (20), at Penn State (26), Iowa (29), at Iowa (29), at Wisconsin (30), at Rutgers (34), at Purdue (35), at Illinois (36), Oklahoma* (40)
Quadrant 2 record:  2-2
-Wins:  Oklahoma State* (68), Clemson (73)
-Losses:  Indiana (54), at Utah (84)
Quadrant 3 record:  1-1
-Wins:  at Northwestern (175)
-Losses:  DePaul (81)
Quadrant 4 record:  5-0
-Wins:  FIU (172), Northwestern (175), Central Michigan (201), North Dakota (245), Cleveland State (297)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

Out

13.  Northwestern

BPI:  143

NET ranking:  175
Overall record:  7-21

14.  Nebraska

BPI:  159

NET ranking:  195

Overall record:  7-22