Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

In last night's Big Ten action, Michigan trounced Nebraska, 82-58, clinching a .500 or better conference record for the Wolverines.  In the other game, a battle of ranked teams, Ohio State topped Illinois, 71-63, after being down seven at halftime.

With one game left for each team, nothing is settled.  There is a three-way tie for first place between Maryland, Michigan State, and Wisconsin, and Illinois technically still has a chance at a share of the title if the Illini win Sunday and the other three teams lose this weekend.  We could also have a four-way tie for fourth place if Illinois loses to Iowa and Penn State and Ohio State win.  We could also have a five-way tie for fourth place if Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State lose and Rutgers and Michigan win.  We could also have a four-way tie for eighth place if Rutgers loses to Purdue, Michigan loses, and Indiana wins.  Madness!

This will likely be my last update before the seeding goes final on Sunday, unless I'm feeling frisky Sunday morning.

As with yesterday, the conference currently holds the top 8, 10 of the top 11, and 12 of the top 18 strongest schedules according to the BPI strength of schedule metric.

Next games

The final games will be played this weekend (all times Eastern):
Saturday

-Wisconsin at Indiana (12 p.m.; ESPN)
-Rutgers at Purdue (2 p.m.; BTN)
-Penn State at Northwestern (4 p.m.; BTN)
Sunday
-Michigan at Maryland (12 p.m.; Fox)
-Nebraska at Minnesota (1 p.m.; BTN)
-Ohio State at Michigan State (4:30 p.m.; CBS)
-Iowa at Illinois (7 p.m.; BTN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1 (tie).  Maryland (13-6):  Michigan (W)

1 (tie).  Michigan State (13-6):  Ohio State (W)
1 (tie).  Wisconsin (13-6):  at Indiana (L)
4.  Illinois (12-7):  Iowa (W)
5 (tie).  Iowa (11-8):  at Illinois (L)

5 (tie).  Penn State (11-8):  at Northwestern (W)
5 (tie).  Ohio State (11-8):  at Michigan State (L)

8 (tie).  Rutgers (10-9):  at Purdue (L)

8 (tie).  Michigan (10-9):  at Maryland (L)
10 (tie).  Indiana (9-10):  Wisconsin (W)
10 (tie).  Purdue (9-10):  Rutgers (W)

12.  Minnesota (7-12):  Nebraska (W)

13 (tie).  Nebraska (2-17):  at Minnesota (L)

13 (tie).  Northwestern (2-17):  Penn State (L)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Michigan State (14-6) (will have tiebreaker over Maryland based on 3-1 record vs. Illinois and Wisconsin, while Maryland has 2-1 record vs. Illinois and Wisconsin)

2.  Maryland (14-6)

3.  Illinois (13-7) (has tiebreaker over Wisconsin based on 1-0 head-to-head record)
4.  Wisconsin (13-7) 

5.  Penn State (12-8)

6.  Iowa (11-9) (has tiebreaker over Ohio State based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

7.  Ohio State (11-9)
8.  Michigan (10-10) (will have tiebreaker over other IU, Purdue, and Rutgers based on 5-0 record vs. other three teams, while Purdue will have 3-3 record, Rutgers will have 2-3 record, and IU will have 0-4 record vs. other three teams).

9.  Purdue (10-10)
10.  Rutgers (10-10)
11.  Indiana (10-10)

12.  Minnesota (8-12)

13.  Northwestern (2-18) (has tiebreaker over Nebraska based on 2-0 head-to-head record)

14.  Nebraska (2-18)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

Below are my predictions based on my current seeding projections.  Also, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament, which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 11 – First Round

(12) Minnesota vs. (13) Northwestern (6 p.m. BTN).  Predicted winner:  Minnesota

(11) Indiana vs. (14) Nebraska (8:30 p.m. BTN).  Predicted winner:  Indiana

Thursday March 12 – Second Round

(8) Michigan vs. (9) Purdue (Noon, BTN).  Predicted winner:  Michigan

(5) Penn State vs. (12) Minnesota (2:30 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Penn State

(7) Ohio State vs. (10) Rutgers (6:30 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Ohio State

(6) Iowa vs. (11) Indiana (9 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Indiana

Friday March 13 – Quarterfinals

(1) Michigan State vs. (8) Michigan (Noon, ESPN).  Predicted winner:  Michigan State

(4) Wisconsin vs. (5) Penn State (2:30 p.m., ESPN).  Predicted winner:  Wisconsin

(2) Maryland vs. (7) Ohio State (6:30 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Maryland

(3) Illinois vs. (11) Indiana (9 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Indiana

Saturday March 14 – Semifinals

(1) Michigan State vs. (4) Wisconsin (1 p.m., CBS).  Predicted winner:  Michigan State

(2) Maryland vs. (11) Indiana (3:30 p.m., CBS).  Predicted winner:  Indiana

Sunday March 15 – Finals

(1) Michigan State vs. (11) Indiana (3:30 p.m., CBS).  Predicted winner:  Michigan State

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's BPI ranking (based on ESPN's BPI rankings), NET ranking (based on the NCAA's NET rankings), overall record against D-1 opponents, BPI strength of schedule, and record against all four NET Quadrants (for an explanation of the NET rankings and the Quadrants, click here, and note that the Quadrants don't include record against non-D1 opponents).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  For the "In" and "Out" teams, I'm putting them in order based on NET ranking.  For the "Bubble" teams, I am putting them in order based on what I think their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament is (which may or may not fall in line with the NET or BPI rankings).  For the "Out" teams, I'm just listing the BPI and NET ranking (and record), since their quality wins or bad losses are pretty much irrelevant given their records.

In

1.  Michigan State

BPI:  4

NET ranking:  7

Overall record:  21-9

BPI strength of schedule:  6

Quadrant 1 record: 7-8

-Wins:  at Seton Hall (14), at Maryland (18), Michigan (24), Wisconsin (26), at Penn State (30), at Illinois (37), at Minnesota (45)
-Losses:  Duke (6), Maryland (18), Kentucky* (21), at Michigan (24), at Wisconsin (26), at Purdue (32), Penn State (30), at Indiana (52)
Quadrant 2 record:  6-1
-Wins:  Rutgers (31), Iowa (34), Illinois (37), Minnesota (45), UCLA* (76), Georgia* (93)
-Losses:  Virginia Tech* (82)
Quadrant 3 record:  2-0
-Wins:  at Northwestern (177), at Nebraska (193)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (177), Eastern Michigan (189), Oakland* (223), Western Michigan (232), Charleston Southern (317), Binghamton (332)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

2.  Ohio State

BPI:  9

NET ranking:  15

Overall record:  21-9

BPI strength of schedule:  14

Quadrant 1 record:  6-8

-Wins:  Villanova (13), Maryland (18), Kentucky* (21), Michigan (24), at Michigan (24), Penn State (30)
-Losses:  at Maryland (18), West Virginia* (19), Wisconsin (26), at Wisconsin (26), at Penn State (30), at Iowa (34), at Minnesota (45), at Indiana (52)
Quadrant 2 record:  6-1
-Wins:  Rutgers (31), Purdue (32), Illinois (37), Cincinnati (49), Indiana (52), at North Carolina (84)
-Losses:  Minnesota (45)
Quadrant 3 record:  3-0
-Wins:  Kent State (119), at Northwestern (177), at Nebraska (193)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Nebraska (193), UMass Lowell (255), Purdue Fort Wayne (280), Stetson (293), Morgan State (311), Southeast Missouri State (342)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

3.  Maryland

BPI:  13

NET ranking:  18
Overall record:  23-7
BPI strength of schedule:  9

Quadrant 1 record: 7-6

-Wins:  at Michigan State (7), Ohio State (15), Marquette* (25), at Illinois (37), at Minnesota (45), at Indiana (52)
-Losses:  Michigan State (7), at Seton Hall (14), at Ohio State (15), at Wisconsin (26), at Penn State (30), at Rutgers (31), at Iowa (34)
Quadrant 2 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Rutgers (31), Purdue (32), Iowa (34), Illinois (37), Indiana (52), Rhode Island (57), Notre Dame (58)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 3 record:  3-0
-Wins:  Harvard* (103), Temple* (114), at Northwestern (177)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  7-0
-Wins:  George Mason (168), Northwestern (177), Nebraska (193), Oakland (223), Bryant (242), Fairfield (290), Holy Cross (343)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

4.  Michigan

BPI:  19

NET ranking:  24

Overall record:  19-11

BPI strength of schedule:  3

Quadrant 1 record:  6-10

-Wins:  Gonzaga* (2), Michigan State (7), Creighton (12), Rutgers* (31), at Rutgers (31), at Purdue (32)
-Losses:  at Michigan State (7), at Louisville (8), Ohio State (15), at Ohio State (15), Oregon (16), Wisconsin (26), Penn State (30), at Iowa (34), at Illinois (37), at Minnesota (45)
Quadrant 2 record:  5-1
-Wins:  Purdue (32), Iowa (34), Indiana (52), North Carolina* (84), Iowa State* (92)
-Losses:  Illinois (37)
Quadrant 3 record:  2-0
-Wins:  at Northwestern (177), at Nebraska (193)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Appalachian State (178), Nebraska (193), Elon (256), UMass Lowell (255), Presbyterian (330), Houston Baptist (344)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

5.  Wisconsin

BPI:  24

NET ranking:  26

Overall record:  20-10

BPI strength of schedule:  4

Quadrant 1 record:  8-8

-Wins:  Michigan State (7), at Ohio State (15), Ohio State (15), Maryland (18), at Michigan (24), Marquette (25), at Penn State (30), at Tennessee (55)
-Losses:  at Michigan State (7), at Iowa (34), St. Mary's* (29), at Rutgers (31), at Purdue (32), Richmond* (44), at Minnesota (45), at NC State (59)
Quadrant 2 record:  4-1
-Wins:  Rutgers (31), Purdue (32), Minnesota (45), Indiana (52)
-Losses:  Illinois (37)
Quadrant 3 record:  1-1
-Wins:  at Nebraska (193)
-Losses:  New Mexico* (143)
Quadrant 4 record:  7-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (177), Rider (186), Nebraska (193), Green Bay (219), Eastern Illinois (239), Milwaukee (265), McNeese State (294)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

6.  Penn State

BPI:  22

NET ranking:  30

Overall record:  21-9

BPI strength of schedule:  11

Quadrant 1 record: 7-7
-Wins:  at Michigan State (7), Maryland (18), Ohio State (15), at Michigan (24), at Purdue (32), Iowa* (34), at Georgetown (65)
-Losses:  Michigan State (7), at Ohio State (15), Wisconsin (26), at Rutgers (31), at Iowa (34), at Minnesota (45), at Indiana (52)
Quadrant 2 record:  6-2
-Wins:  Rutgers (31), Minnesota (45), Alabama (50), Indiana (52), Yale (66), Syracuse* (67)
-Losses:  Illinois (37), Mississippi* (87)
Quadrant 3 record:  2-0
-Wins:  Wake Forest (104), at Nebraska (193)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (177), Bucknell (240), Cornell (307), Wagner (329), Central Connecticut State (347), Maryland-Eastern Shore (349)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

7.  Iowa

BPI:  26

NET ranking:  34

Overall record:  20-10

BPI strength of schedule:  5

Quadrant 1 record: 9-7

-Wins:  Ohio State (15), Maryland (18), Texas Tech* (22), Michigan (24), Wisconsin (26), Penn State (30), at Minnesota (45), Cincinnati* (49), at Syracuse (67) 
-Losses:  San Diego State* (4), at Michigan State (7), at Maryland (18), at Michigan (24), Penn State (30), at Purdue (32), at Indiana (52)
Quadrant 2 record:  4-1
-Wins:  Rutgers (31), Illinois (37), Minnesota (45), at Iowa State (92)
-Losses:  Purdue (32)
Quadrant 3 record:  2-2
-Wins:  Oral Roberts (150), at Northwestern (177)
-Losses:  DePaul (83), at Nebraska (193)
Quadrant 4 record:  5-0
-Wins:  North Florida (170), Nebraska (193), Cal Poly (324), SIU-Edwardsville (335), Kennesaw State (352)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

8.  Illinois

BPI:  32

NET ranking:  37

Overall record:  20-10

BPI strength of schedule:  23

Quadrant 1 record: 5-8

-Wins:  Michigan (24), at Michigan (24), at Wisconsin (26), at Penn State (30), at Purdue (32)
-Losses:  at Michigan State (7), Michigan State (7), at Arizona (10), at Ohio State (15), at Maryland (18), Maryland (18), at Rutgers (31), at Iowa (34)
Quadrant 2 record:  4-1
-Wins:  Rutgers (31), Purdue (32), Minnesota (45), Indiana (52)
-Losses:  Missouri* (94)
Quadrant 3 record:  2-1
-Wins:  Old Dominion (157), at Northwestern (177)
-Losses:  Miami (106)
Quadrant 4 record:  7-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (177), Nebraska (193), Nicholls State (194), Hawaii (215), North Carolina A&T (262), at Grand Canyon (279), Hampton (316), The Citadel (338)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  1-0

Bubble

9.  Rutgers

BPI:  33

NET ranking:  31

Overall record:  19-11

BPI strength of schedule:  33

Quadrant 1 record:  4-9

-Wins:  Seton Hall (14), Maryland (18), Wisconsin (26), Penn State (30) 
-Losses:  at Michigan State (7), at Ohio State (15), at Maryland (18), Michigan* (24), Michigan (24), at Wisconsin (26), at Penn State (30), at Iowa (34), at Illinois (37)
Quadrant 2 record:  4-1
-Wins:  Purdue (32), Illinois (37), Minnesota (45), Indiana (52) 
-Losses:  at Pittsburgh (111)
Quadrant 3 record:  3-1
-Wins:  Stephen F. Austin (80), UMass (133), at Nebraska (193)
-Losses:  St. Bonaventure* (116)
Quadrant 4 record:  7-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (177), Nebraska (193), Lafayette (218), Drexel (235), Bryant (242), Niagara (306), NJIT (309)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  1-0

10.  Indiana

BPI:  39

NET ranking:  52

Overall record:  19-11

BPI strength of schedule:  10

Quadrant 1 record:  5-9

-Wins:  Michigan State (7), Florida State (11), Ohio State (15), Penn State (30), at Minnesota (45)
-Losses:  at Ohio State (15), at Maryland (18), Maryland (18), at Michigan (24), at Wisconsin (26), at Penn State (30), at Rutgers (31), at Purdue (32), at Illinois (37)
Quadrant 2 record:  4-2
-Wins:  Iowa (34), Minnesota (45), Notre Dame* (58), UConn* (61)
-Losses:  Purdue (32), Arkansas (43)
Quadrant 3 record:  4-0
-Wins:  Louisiana Tech (95), South Dakota State (121), Princeton (153), at Nebraska (193)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (177), Portland State (180), Nebraska (193), Troy (275), North Alabama (295), Western Illinois (334)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

11.  Purdue

BPI:  18

NET ranking:  32

Overall record:  16-14

BPI strength of schedule:  2

Quadrant 1 record:  4-11

-Wins:  Michigan State (7), Wisconsin (26), at Iowa (34), at Indiana (52)
-Losses:  Florida State* (11), at Ohio State (15), Butler* (17), at Maryland (18), at Michigan (24), Michigan (24), at Marquette (25), at Wisconsin (26), Penn State (30), at Rutgers (31), at Illinois (37)
Quadrant 2 record:  4-2
-Wins:  Iowa (34), Minnesota (45), Virginia (47), Indiana (52), VCU* (64) 
-Losses:  Illinois (37), Texas (56)
Quadrant 3 record:  1-1
-Wins:  at Northwestern (177)
-Losses:  at Nebraska (193)
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Ohio (165), Northwestern (177), Central Michigan (205), Green Bay (219), Jacksonville State (285), Chicago State (353)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

Out

12.  Minnesota

BPI:  35

NET ranking:  45

Overall record:  13-16

13.  Northwestern

BPI:  142

NET ranking:  177
Overall record:  7-22

14.  Nebraska

BPI:  160

NET ranking:  193

Overall record:  7-23