Sunday, March 13, 2022

Final Championship Week Predictions: "Sunday Morning Coming Down"

Today's Championship Week theme song is Johnny Cash's "Sunday Morning Coming Down" because this morning is the deep breath before the next three weeks of madness.  Also, it's  a great fucking song.  Yesterday, 15 bids were clinched, and it was another exciting day of college hoops, with 15 out of 25 games decided by single digits.  Today, the final 5 automatic bids to the 2022 Division 1 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament, beginning with the Ivy League title game between Princeton and Yale tipping off at Noon Eastern, and ending with the Big Ten title game between Purdue and Iowa tipping off at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.  And then, my friends, we have the Selection Show.  Dreams will be realized.  Hearts will be broken.  Tears of joy and sorrow will be shed.

Here's what happened in yesterday's action:

  • In the ACC final, 7-seed Virginia Tech upset 1-seed Duke, 82-79, to clinch the Hokies' 13th NCAA Tournament bid and second in a row.
  • In the America East title game, 1-seed Vermont crushed 2-seed UMBC, 82-43.  The Catamounts will be playing in their 8th trip to the Big Dance and first since 2019.
  • In the Big 12 championship game, top seed Kansas beat 3-seed Texas Tech, 74-65. The Jayhawks will be playing in their 50th NCAA Tournament and second in a row.
  • In the Big East title game, 2-seed Villanova topped 4-seed Creighton, 54-48.  The Wildcats will be playing in their 41st NCAA Tournament and second in a row.
  • In the Big Sky championship, top seed Montana State cruised to a 87-66 win over 3-seed Northern Colorado.  The Bobcats will be playing in their 4th Big Dance and first since 1996.
  • In the Big West final, 2-seed Cal State Fullerton escaped with a 72-71 win over 1-seed Long Beach State.  The Titans will be playing in their 4th NCAA Tournament and first since 2018.
  • In the Conference USA title gameWest 2-seed UAB outlasted West 3-seed Louisiana Tech, 82-73.  The Bulldogs will be playing in their 16th NCAA Tournament and first since 2015, when they beat Iowa State in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament as a 14-seed.
  • In the MAAC final, 2-seed St. Peter's held off 4-seed Monmouth, 60-54.  The Peacocks will be playing in their 4th Big Dance and first since 2011.
  • In the MAC championship game, in a battle of northeast Ohio bragging rights, 4-seed Akron dominated 2-seed Kent State, 75-55.  The Zips will be playing in their 5th NCAA Tournament and first since 2013.
  • In the MEAC title game, 1-seed Norfolk State beat 7-seed Coppin State, 72-57.  The Spartans will be playing in their 3rd NCAA Tournament appearance and second in a row.
  • In the Mountain West final, top seed Boise State stopped 3-seed San Diego State twice in the last 28 seconds to win 53-52.  The Broncos will be playing in their 8th Big Dance and first since 2015.
  • In the Pac-12 title game, 1-seed Arizona downed 2-seed UCLA, 84-76.  The Wildcats will be playing in their 36th and first since 2018.
  • In the Southland championship game, 4-seed Texas A&M CC outlasted 2-seed Southeastern Louisiana, 73-65.  The Islanders will be playing in their 2nd NCAA Tournament and first since 2007.
  • In the SWAC final, 2-seed Texas Southern dominated top seed Alcorn State, 87-62. The Braves will be playing in their 10th NCAA Tournament and second in a row.
  • In the WAC title game, 1-seed New Mexico State beat 6-seed Abilene Christian, 66-52.  The Aggies will be playing in their 26th Big Dance and first since 2019.
  • In the AAC semis, top seed Houston dominated 5-seed Tulane, 86-66, and 3-seed Memphis topped 2-seed SMU, 70-63, to advance to this afternoon's final.  Both are locks to go to the NCAA Tournament.  The Cougars will be going to their 23 Big Dance and second in a row, after going to the Final Four last year, and the Tigers will be going to their 27th and first since 2014.
  • In the A-10 semis, 1-seed Davidson walloped 5-seed St. Louis, 84-69, and 6-seed Richmond upset 2-seed Dayton, 68-64.  When they face off in this afternoon's championship, the Wildcats (who are likely in anyway) will be playing for their 16th NCAA Tournament bid and first since 2018, and the Spiders will be playing for their 10th bid and first since 2011.
  • In the Big Ten semis, 5-seed Iowa beat 9-seed Indiana, 80-77, on a prayer bank shot by Jordan Bohannon with a second left, and 3-seed Purdue beat 7-seed Michigan State, 75-70, to advance to this afternoon's title game.  Both are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  The Hawkeyes will be playing in their 28th NCAA Tournament and second in a row, and the Boilermakers will be playing in their 33rd and second in a row.  Neither have won a national title and neither have been to a Final Four since 1980.
  • In the Ivy League semis, 1-seed Princeton beat 4-seed Cornell, 77-73, and 2-seed Yale beat 3-seed Penn, 67-61.  When they face off in this afternoon's title game, the Tigers will be playing for their 26th NCAA Tournament bid and first since 2017, and the Bulldogs will be playing for their 6th bid and first since 2019.
  • In the SEC semis, 2-seed Tennessee ousted presumed cheaters 3-seed Kentucky, 69-62, and 8-seed Texas A&M continued its Cinderella run by beating 4-seed Arkansas, 82-64, advancing to this afternoon's championship game.  The Vols are locks for the NCAA Tournament, and will be going to their 24th NCAA Tournament and second in a row, but the Aggies still may need a win to clinch their 15th NCAA Tournament and first since 2018.
  • Bubble teams that won yesterday:  Boise State, Davidson, Memphis, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech
  • Bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Creighton, Dayton, Indiana, Michigan State, San Diego State, SMU, St. Louis

With that, here are the tournaments starting today, the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments.

Tournaments with games today
-AAC
-Atlantic 10
-Big Ten
-Ivy League
-SEC

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern)
-Ivy League (Noon; ESPN2): (1) Princeton vs. (2) Yale
-Atlantic 10 (1 p.m.; CBS): (1) Davidson vs. (6) Richmond
-SEC (1 p.m.; ESPN): (2) Tennessee vs. (8) Texas A&M
-AAC (3:15 p.m.; ESPN): (1) Houston vs. (3) Memphis
-Big Ten (3:30 p.m.; CBS): (3) Purdue vs. (5) Iowa

Already clinched automatic berths (I will add in parentheses the NCAA tournament appearances for each school, including the bid just clinched and last NCAA Tournament appearance where applicable, and the year of the team's last NCAA Tournament appearance.  For conferences whose tournaments have not yet ended, I'll list the date of the championship game.)
-AAC (March 13)
-ACC:  Virginia Tech (13; 2021)
-America East:  Vermont (8th; 2019)
-Atlantic 10 (March 13)
-Atlantic Sun:  Jacksonville State (2; 2017)
-Big 12:  Kansas (50:2021)
-Big East:  Villanova (41; 2021)
-Big Sky:  Montana State (4; 1996)
-Big South:  Longwood (1; never)
-Big Ten (March 13)
-Big West:  Cal State Fullerton (4; 2018)
-Colonial:  Delaware (6; 2014)
-Conference USA:  UAB (16th; 2015)
-Horizon:  Wright State (4; 2018)
-Ivy League (March 13)
-MAAC:  St. Peter's (4; 2011)
-MAC:  Akron 5; 2013)
-MEAC:  Norfolk State (3; 2021)
-Missouri Valley:  Loyola (IL) (8; 2021)
-Mountain West:  Boise State (8; 2015)
-Northeast Conference:  Bryant (1; never)
-Ohio Valley:  Murray State (19; 2019)
-Pac-12:  Arizona (36; 2018)
-Patriot League:  Colgate (5; 2021)
-SEC (March 13)
-Southern Conference:  Chattanooga (12; 2016)
-Southland:  Texas A&M CC (2; 2007)
-Summit:  South Dakota State (6; 2018)
-Sun Belt:  Georgia State (6; 2019)
-SWAC:  Texas Southern (10; 2021)
-WAC:  New Mexico State (26; 2019)
-West Coast:  Gonzaga (24; 2021)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern)

AAC (March 10-13; Fort Worth)
3/13 – Finals
3:15 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Houston vs. (3) Memphis.  Predicted winner:  Houston

Atlantic 10 (March 9-13; Washington, DC)
3/13 – Finals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) Davidson vs. (6) Richmond.  Predicted winner:  Davidson

Big Ten (March 9-13; Indianapolis)
3/13 – Finals
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (3) Purdue vs. (5) Iowa.  Predicted winner:  Iowa

Ivy League (March 12-13; Boston)
3/13 - Finals
Noon (ESPN2) (1) Princeton vs. (2) Yale.  Predicted winner:  Princeton

SEC (March 9-13; Tampa)
3/13 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Tennessee vs. (8) Texas A&M.  Predicted winner:  Tennessee

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