Tuesday Top Ten: NCAA Tournament Edition

This year's NCAA Tournament brackets have been announced, and I think this will be one of the most unpredictable NCAA Tournaments in recent memory.  No one is safe.  We could have a Final Four with no 1-seeds or a Final Four with all four 1-seeds.  I have already filled out 127 brackets, and they're all terrible.  Here are a couple initial random thoughts:

• Like last year, there are four backup teams in case any team has to drop out of the Tournament before it starts.  In order, they are:  Dayton, Oklahoma, SMU, and Texas A&M.
• I don't think any 1-seeds have an easy path to the Final Four.
• As always, I would not be surprised if all of the 12-seeds beat all of the 5-seeds.  Or none.
• Of the 12 schools with 35 or more NCAA Tournament appearances (including this year) -- Kentucky, North Carolina, Kansas, UCLA, Duke, Syracuse, Indiana, Louisville, Villanova, Notre Dame, Texas, and Michigan State -- only Syracuse and Louisville didn't receive bids to this year's NCAA Tournament.
• Here are the ten teams in this year's NCAA Tournament with the most tournament appearances, but no NCAA championship.  I'm including the team's seed and region in this year's tournament, the number of NCAA Tournament appearances, the overall rank in number of appearances, and last Final Four appearance, if applicable (* means a team has lost in a national title game, ** means the furthest the team has gone is the Final Four, and *** means the team has never been to a Final Four):
• Notre Dame** - 11-seed West  37 appearances (10th overall); 1978
• Texas** - 6-seed East:  36 appearances (11th overall); 2003
• Illinois* - 4-seed South:  32 appearances (T-20th overall); 2005
• Purdue* - 3-seed East:  32 appearances (T-20th overall); 1980
• Iowa* - 5-seed Midwest:  28 appearances (T-30th overall); 1980
• Gonzaga* - 1-seed West:  24 appearances (T-38th overall); 2021
• LSU** - 6-seed Midwest:  24 appearances (T-38th overall); 2006
• Tennessee*** - 3-seed South:  24 appearances (T-38th overall); No Final Four
• Creighton*** - 9-seed Midwest:  23 appearances (T-43rd overall); No Final Four
• Houston* - 5-seed South:  23 appearances (T-43rd overall); 2021
• New Mexico State** - 12-seed West:  23 appearances (T-43rd overall); 1970
• Fuck Purdue

Anyway, as I do every year, here are a couple lists of five teams each in a few categories that you should consider when filling out your brackets.  Expect there to be some contradictions, since that's the nature of predicting the NCAA Tournament.  Teams are in seed order.  So you don't think I'm entirely full of shit (or perhaps to prove that I am), I'll put in parentheses what I correctly predicted last years.

Teams with the best shot at winning it all (last year, I had Baylor on this list):

1.  Gonzaga (1-seed West).  The Zags came up one game short of an historic season last year, losing their first game of the year in the title game to Baylor.  It seems like it may finally be their year, after making it to two title games in the last four NCAA Tournaments.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  8-3

2.  Arizona (1-seed South).  After a few years of scandal and not making the tournament since 2018 -- the school's longest drought since 1978-1984 -- Sean Miller is gone, and former Gonzaga assistant Tommy Lloyd has the Wildcats back in the national spotlight for a positive reason.  They are also big -- with three guys 6'11" or taller -- so they're a tough matchup for anyone.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  7-2

3.  Baylor (1-seed East).  The Bears are the defending champ, and though we haven't had a back-to-back champ since Florida in 2006 and 2007, and though no team has ever won a national title after losing their first game in their conference tournament (as Baylor did in the Big 12 Tournament), and though starting forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua is out for the rest of the season, Baylor is still a damn good team.  Their guards are phenomenal again, and guard play is often what takes teams far in March and early April.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  9-4

4.  Tennessee (3-seed South).  The Vols won the SEC Tournament and have only lost once in the last month and a half (at Arkansas), so they seem to be peaking at the right time.  Rick Barnes is a great coach with Final Four experience, so don't be surprised if Tennessee ends up cutting down the nets in New Orleans.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  8-7

5.  Duke (2-seed West).  I'm only putting this in here only because it's Coach K's last season.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  6-4

Final Four sleepers (teams seeded 4 or higher) (last year, I did not have UCLA on this list):

1.  UCLA (4-seed East).  After last year's unlikely run to the Final Four as an 11-seed and one of the "First Four," the Bruins aren't surprising anyone this year.  They were probably slightly underseeded at a 4-seed, and there isn't anyone in the East region they can't beat.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  5-4

2.  Houston (5-seed South).  The Cougars went to the Final Four last year, had a NET ranking of 3 (behind only Gonzaga and Arizona), won the AAC Tournament, and were rewarded with a 5-seed.  They crash the boards as well as anyone in the country, and they just reloaded after last year's run.  Kelvin Sampson will have his team ready for anyone.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  2-4

3.  Iowa (5-seed Midwest).  The Hawkeyes have been hot lately and won the Big Ten Tournament for the first time since 2006.  They have a lottery pick in Keegan Murray, and they can shoot as well as anyone.  Jordan Bohannon is the Big Ten's all-time leading three point shooter.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  8-8

4.  Loyola-Chicago (10-seed South).  If there's one thing we've learned over the last few NCAA Tournaments, it's that you shouldn't sleep on the Ramblers.  They went to the Final Four as an 11-seed in 2018 and then last year, as an 8-seed, they upset 1-seed Illinois in the Second Round and came within 7 points of going to the Elite 8.  After a couple hiccups near the end of the regular season, the won the MVC Tournament, and they have NET ranking of 22.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  1-2

5.  Indiana or Wyoming (12-seed East).  Last year, UCLA was one of the "First Four" teams, and they ended up going to the Final Four.  In this strange year, it's quite possible another "First Four" team makes an unlikely run, and I think the winner of the Indiana/Wyoming game tonight in Dayton has the best chance.  Indiana has a superstar in Trayce Jackson-Davis, who has been playing great the last few games, and point guard Xavier Johnson can be the X factor (pun intended) for a deep run.  The Hoosiers also play excellent defense.  And Wyoming has a great one-two punch with forward Graham Ike and guard Hunter Maldonado.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  5-10 (Indiana); 3-5 (Wyoming)

Teams seeded 4 or better who may not make it to the second weekend (last year, I had Iowa, Kansas, and Purdue on this list):

1.  Duke (2-seed West).  The ACC is down this year, with only five teams in the Tournament, and Duke is the only one seeded better than an 8-seed.  The Blue Devils kind of limped to the finish, getting beaten by arch-rival UNC in Coach K's final game at Cameron, and then barely beating Syracuse in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals and Miami in the semifinals before getting blown out by Virginia Tech in the title game.  They didn't make the NCAA Tournament last year, and obviously the 2020 tournament was canceled, so there's not a ton of NCAA Tournament experience on this team.  I am quite confident Duke will beat Cal State Fullerton in the First Round, but then a matchup in the Second Round will be either against Michigan State (who is always a tough out in March) or A-10 regular season champ Davidson, who will be chomping at the bit to take down one of their in-state blue bloods.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  6-4

2.  Purdue (3-seed East).  The Boilermakers have a long and storied history . . . of underachieving in March.  Purdue has been a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament 14 times since seeding began in 1979, failing to advance to the Sweet 16 seven of those times.  Last year, they were ousted in the First Round as a 4-seed by 13-seed North Texas.  The Boilers will likely get past Yale in the first round, but a second round date with Texas or white-hot Virginia Tech could spell trouble.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  12-7

3.  UCLA (4-seed East).  Though the Bruins were a Final Four team last year, the Pac-12 was down this year, with only three NCAA Tournament teams (hell, last year, the Pac-12 had three Elite 8 teams and four Sweet 16 teams).  Assuming they get past 13-seed Akron in the First Round, a Second Round matchup with St. Mary's or the winner of the Indiana/Wyoming play-in game is going to be a tough game no matter who the opponent is.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  5-4

4.  Providence (4-seed Midwest).  Big East regular season champ Providence has had its best season since they made the Final Four in 1987, and their reward is a really tough 13-seed matchup with South Dakota State in the First Round.  The Jackrabbits haven't lost since December 15.  If the Friars win that one, they likely get a red-hot Iowa team in the Second Round.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  8-4

5.  Illinois (4-seed South).  The Illini have a true star in Kofi Cockburn, and he is a beast, leading the Illini to a share of the Big Ten regular season title and the 1-seed in the Big Ten Tournament, where they promptly lost to 9-seed Indiana in the quarterfinals.  They're only 5-4 over their last 9 games, and they haven't made it out of the first weekend since their NCAA Runner-Up finish in 2005 -- including last year, when they were a 1-seed and lost to 8-seed Loyola-Chicago in the second round.  They have a tough First Round matchup with 13-seed Chattanooga, and if they get past the Mocs, they'll face a tough Houston team (see above) or a hot UAB team.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  10-7

Teams seeded 12 or higher with the best chance of pulling an upset in the first round (last year, I had Oregon State on this list):

1.  Indiana or Wyoming (12-seed East).  See above.  Both teams have a great shot at knocking off 5-seed St. Mary's in the First Round, and particularly the Hoosiers, who can go toe-to-toe with the Gaels (who play great defense) on the defensive end.  And history is on their side.  In all but one year since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 68 teams and started doing the "First Four" games in 2011, at least one "First Four" team has gone on to win at least one more game in the NCAA Tournament (with five going to the Sweet 16 and two going to the Final Four).
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  5-10 (Indiana); 3-5 (Wyoming)

2.  UAB (12-seed South).  The Blazers have a legit star in guard Jordan "Jelly" Walker, who led them to the Conference USA Tournament championship.  They have won 7 in a row, and could knock off a very good Houston team in the First Round if the Cougars aren't ready.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  0-1

3.  Vermont (13-seed West).  The Catamounts have lost once since December 7 (and that was a one-point loss in OT).  They shoot the lights out, hitting 41% of their threes and 60% of their two-point shots.  First Round opponent Arkansas is small, so it's a good matchup for Vermont.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  2-1

4.  South Dakota State (13-seed Midwest).  The Jackrabbits are 30-4 and, as I mentioned above, they haven't lost since December 15.  They went 18-0 in the Summit League on their way to the regular season and conference title.  Offensively, they are one of the most efficient teams in the country, and they don't turn the ball over.  That's a recipe for a potential upset of 4-seed Providence.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  1-1

5.  Colgate (14-seed Midwest).  The Raiders plowed their way through the Patriot League Tournament, winning all three games by double digits, and they've only lost once in the last two months.  Granted, Syracuse had a down year, but Colgate beat the Orange by 15 in the Carrier Dome in November.  Most importantly, they are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, sitting at second in the nation in three point field goal percentage and having an astounding five players who hit better than 40% from three-point range.  Their opponent, 3-seed Wisconsin, is not a pushover, but the Badgers haven't gotten past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament since 2017 and lost their last two games to inferior opponents -- a home loss to Nebraska that cost the Badgers the outright Big Ten regular season title and the 1-seed in the Big Ten Tournament, and then a quarterfinals loss to 7-seed Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  0-1