Tuesday Top Ten: NCAA Tournament Edition

This year's NCAA Tournament brackets have been announced, and even more than usual, this should be a crazy NCAA Tournament.  I have already filled out 146 brackets, and they're all horrible.  Here are a couple initial random thoughts:

• Because of this whole global pandemic thing, the Tournament is going to be played entirely in one state for the first time in the 82-year history of the Tournament.  All the games will be played in Indiana -- and I think we can all agree, there is no better state to host the entire Tournament than the state where basketball is religion -- and here are the venues, as well as which rounds will be played in each venue
• Assembly Hall (Bloomington):  First Four and First Round
• Mackey Arena (West Lafayette):  First Four and First Round
• Banker's Life Fieldhouse (Indianapolis):  First Round, Second Round, and Sweet 16
• Hinkle Fieldhouse (Indianapolis):  First Round, Second Round, and Sweet 16
• Indiana Farmers Coliseum (Indianapolis):  First Round and Second Round
• Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis):  First Round, Second Round, Elite 8, and Final Four
• The schedule is also going to be different this year.  Instead of having the First Four on a Tuesday and Wednesday, it will be all on Thursday March 18.  The First Round will be on Friday March 19 and Saturday March 20, the Second Round will be on Sunday March 21 and Monday March 22, the Sweet 16 will be on Saturday March 27 and Sunday March 28, the Elite 8 will be on Monday March 29 and Tuesday March 30, and the Final Four will be as regularly scheduled, with the semis on Saturday April 3 and the championship game on Monday April 5.
• There are four backup teams in case any team has to drop out of the Tournament before it starts.  In order, they are:  Louisville, Colorado State, St. Louis, and Mississippi.
• Like in 2019, I think there are 8-10 teams that could legitimately win it all and about 15-18 teams that could legitimately make it to the Final Four, but at the same time, I wouldn't be shocked if all of them lost by the Sweet 16.
• I think Michigan and Baylor have the easiest path to the Final Four of any 1-seed, and I think Illinois has the hardest path of any of the 1-seeds.
• As always, I would not be surprised if all of the 12-seeds beat all of the 5-seeds.  Or none.
• The Big Ten could have four Final Four teams.  Or none.
• Duke, Indiana, and Kentucky did not make this year's NCAA Tournament.  It is the first NCAA Tournament since 1965 in which all three schools missed the Big Dance.
• Of the 12 schools with 34 or more NCAA Tournament appearances (including this year) -- Kentucky, North Carolina, Kansas, UCLA, Duke, Syracuse, Indiana, Louisville, Villanova, Notre Dame, Texas, and Michigan State -- only 7 received bids to this year's NCAA Tournament.  That's the fewest of those 12 schools that appeared in the NCAA Tournament since 1993, marking only the second time since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 that this few of those 12 schools are in the tournament.
• Here are the ten teams in this year's NCAA Tournament with the most tournament appearances, but no NCAA championship.  I'm including the team's seed and region in this year's tournament, the number of NCAA Tournament appearances, the overall rank in number of appearances, and last Final Four appearance, if applicable (* means a team has lost in a national title game, ** means the furthest the team has gone is the Final Four, and *** means the team has never been to a Final Four):
• Texas** - 3-seed East:  35 appearances (11th overall); 2003
• Oklahoma* - 8-seed West:  33 appearances (T-13th overall); 2016
• Illinois* - 1-seed Midwest:  31 appearances (T-20th overall); 2005
• Purdue* - 4-seed South:  31 appearances (T-20th overall); 1980
• BYU*** - 6-seed East:  30 appearances (T-24th overall; No Final Four
• West Virginia* - 3-seed Midwest:  30 appearances (T-24th overall); 2010
• Iowa* - 2-seed West:  27 appearances (T-31st overall); 1980
• Missouri*** - 9-seed West:  27 appearances (T-31st overall); No Final Four
• Gonzaga* - 1-seed West:  23 appearances (T-40th overall); 2017
• LSU** - 8-seed East:  23 appearances (T-40th overall); 2006
• Tennessee*** - 5-seed Midwest:  23 appearances (T-40th overall);  No Final Four
• Fuck Purdue

Anyway, as I do every year, here are a couple lists of five teams each in a few categories that you should consider when filling out your brackets.  Expect there to be some contradictions, since that's the nature of predicting the NCAA Tournament.  Teams are in seed order.  So you don't think I'm entirely full of shit (or perhaps to prove that I am), I'll put in parentheses what I correctly predicted in 2019.

Teams with the best shot at winning it all (in 2019, I had Virginia on this list):

1.  Gonzaga (1-seed West).  The Zags haven't lost a game all season and have a legit shot at becoming the first team since the vaunted 1976 Indiana Hoosiers to finish undefeated.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  7-0

2.  Illinois (1-seed Midwest).  The Fighting Illini have their best team since their 2005 run to the NCAA title game.  The won the conference tournament in the toughest conference in the country, the Big Ten.  Junior guard Ayo Dosunmu and sophomore center Kofi Cockburn are NBA-level talents, and they could finally get over that NCAA championship hump that has eluded Illinois for so long.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  10-7

3.  Baylor (1-seed South).  The Bears won their first 18 games of the season and played in the second-toughest conference in the country, the Big 12.  Their guards are phenomenal, and guard play is often what takes teams far in March and early April.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  10-2

4.  Michigan (1-seed East).  I'd probably have the Wolverines a little higher on this list, were it not for the fact that starting forward and second-leading scorer Isaiah Levers injured his foot earlier this week and it out indefinitely.  Michigan has played at a high level all year, even after they had to shut down for two weeks in late January and early February because of COVID.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  10-3

5.  Iowa (2-seed West).  The third-best team in the Big Ten was still a Top 7 team for most of the season.  Luka Garza is probably the best player in college basketball -- for the second year in a row.  And if Jordan Bohannon or Joe Wieskamp get hot from outside, watch out.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  11-5

Final Four sleepers (teams seeded 4 or higher) (in 2019, I had Auburn on this list):

1.  Virginia (4-seed West).  The defending champs were the ACC's regular season champs before they had to pull out of the ACC Tournament before the semifinals because of positive COVID tests within the program.  Assuming they can get a full squad healthy, they can slow down anyone with their D.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  6-3

2.  Florida State (4-seed East).  The Seminoles have been trending in the right direction over the past few seasons, and they finished second both in the ACC regular season and in the ACC Tournament.  If they can get to the Sweet 16 and face Michigan without Isaiah Levers, they have a great shot at beating the Wolverines and then beating whoever they face in the Elite Eight.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  6-3

3.  Texas Tech (6-seed South).  The Red Raiders were the runners-up in 2019, falling to Virginia in OT in the title game.  The Big 12 was tough as hell this year, and Chris Beard always has his team ready to play.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  6-10

4.  San Diego State (6-seed Midwest).  The Aztecs haven't lost since January 16, and the Mountain West was better than usual this year, even if Colorado State got pushed out of the NCAA Tournament because of Georgetown and Oregon State's bid-stealing conference titles.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  2-3

5.  Loyola (IL) (8-seed Midwest).  The Ramblers are only three years removed from their magical Final Four run in 2018 as an 11-seed.  The freshmen on that team are now seniors, including star center Cameron Krutwig.  They've only lost four games all year, by a combined 16 points, and none by more than six points.  If they can get past Georgia Tech in the first round, they'll face Illinois in the second round, and you better believe Porter Moser will have his team hyped up for a chance to knock off the Illini to establish supremacy in the Land of Lincoln.  Illinois, by the way, hasn't played in the NCAA Tournament since 2013 and hasn't advanced to the Sweet 16 since 2005.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  3-2

Teams seeded 4 or better who may not make it to the second weekend (in 2019, I had Kansas on this list):

1.  Iowa (2-seed West).  In their 14 NCAA Tournament appearances since the Reagan administration, the Hawkeyes have advanced to the Sweet 16 exactly once, in 1999, and they have been a Top 4 seed thrice in that time (and didn't make it out of the first weekend any of those three times).  Assuming they beat Abilene Christian in the first round, they'll get Pac-12 regular season champ Oregon or A-10 runner-up VCU in the second round.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  11-5

2.  Houston (2-seed West).  Houston has had a great season and been ranked in the Top 10 most of the year, but they haven't had the toughest schedule.  The Cougars' trip to the Sweet 16 in 2019 was their first foray into the second weekend since the Phi Slama Jama era, when Guy Lewis was the head coach and they lost to Georgetown in the 1984 national championship game.  It was also Kelvin Sampson's first time in the Sweet 16 since taking Oklahoma to the Elite Eight in 2003.  They face a scrappy Cleveland State team in the first round -- and Cleveland State has scored an upset as a double-digit seed in both of its previous trips to the NCAA Tournament -- and then if the Cougars win that, they face either Clemson or battle-tested Rutgers in the second round.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  2-1

3.  Kansas (3-seed West).  Because it's Kansas.  It seems like the Jayhawks either make a deep run or get knocked out early.  With the uncertainty of their roster given the recent COVID outbreak within the program, they may not be at full strength.  Even if they make it past 14-seed Eastern Washington in the first round (which they should), a tough matchup with USC, Wichita State, or Drake looms in the second round.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  8-8

4.  Arkansas (3-seed South).  The SEC was decent, but not great, this year, and Arkansas certainly played well.  They were rewarded with a really tough matchup in the first round with Colgate, which it ranked #9 in the NET rankings.  If the Razorbacks can get past the Raiders, then they will face a tough test in either Texas Tech or Utah State.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  8-6

5.  Purdue (4-seed South).  Granted, the Boilermakers , but they have a long and storied history . . . of underachieving in March.  Purdue has been a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament 13 times since seeding began in 1979, failing to advance to the Sweet 16 six of those times.  The Boilers will likely get past North Texas in the first round (though you shouldn't sleep on the Mean Green), but a second round date with Villanova or Winthrop could spell trouble.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  7-7

Teams seeded 12 or higher with the best chance of pulling an upset in the first round (in 2019, I had Murray State and UC Irvine, on this list):

1.  UC Santa Barbara (12-seed West).  The Gauchos are catching a Creighton team in the first round that is coming off an absolute drubbing in the Big East title game and that is going though some turmoil with head coach Greg McDermott's recent inappropriate "plantation" comments.  UCSB hasn't really played anyone, but they're a good shooting team that doesn't turn the ball over very often.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  0-0

2.  Winthrop (12-seed South).  The Eagles have lost only one game all season -- a two-point loss to UNC Asheville on January 29.  They face a Villanova team that lost three of its last four teams, including two to non-NCAA Tournament teams.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  1-0

3.  Oregon State (12-seed Midwest).  Whenever there's a 12-seed from a Power Five conference, there's always a chance for a first round upset.  Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, teams from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12/Big 8, Pac-12/Pac-10, and SEC who have been 12-seeds have gone 11-9 in the first round, five have advanced to the Sweet 16, and two of those teams advanced to the Elite Eight.  Since 2009, that record is 6-2 in the first round.  The Beavers are hot right now, winning six of their last seven, and downing three NCAA Tournament teams -- UCLA, Oregon, and Colorado -- on their way to their first-ever Pac-12 Tournament title.  Their first round opponent is Tennessee, who has gone a pedestrian 4-4 in their last eight games after starting 14-4.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  5-5

4.  Liberty (13-seed Midwest).  The Flames scored an upset as a 12-seed over Mississippi State in the first round of the 2019 NCAA Tournament, so they not only have NCAA Tournament experience, but experience winning as an underdog.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  0-2

5.  Colgate (14-seed South).  As discussed above, the Raiders are a Top 10 team in the NET, and they can score from anywhere on the court and, importantly when it comes to potential upsets, from behind the three-point arc.  They're 14-1, and their only loss was by 2 points to Army on January 3.  Ten of their 14 wins have come by double digits, and they score 85 points or more in nine of their games.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  0-0