Updated Championship Week Predictions: The Moment of Truth

Today's Championship Week theme song is Survivor's "The Moment of Truth" because -- like Daniel-san at the All Valley Karate Championship -- over the course of today and tomorrow, the teams in the remaining 20 conference tournaments will be leaving it all on the court to clinch an automatic bid to this year's NCAA Tournament.

On top of that, there may be a few teams facing a moment of truth bigger than conference tournaments.  Yesterday, two 1-seeds were forced to withdraw from their conference tournaments because of positive COVID tests within their programs:  Virginia in the ACC and North Carolina A&T in the MEAC.  Kansas, the 2-seed in the Big 12, also withdrew because of COVID.  Virginia and Kansas now are at risk of having to miss the NCAA Tournament, depending on how their COVID protocols go over the next week.  Madness!  And we had 6 additional 1-seeds go down -- Baylor in the Big 12, Southern Utah in the Big Sky, Louisiana Tech in Conference USA, Toledo in the MAC, Coppin State in the MEAC, and Oregon in the Pac-12.  Madness!

Today, there are 21 games -- including 15 championship games -- over more than 14 hours (again), starting with the tip off of the America East championship game between Hartford and UMass Lowell at 11 a.m. Eastern and ending with the Big West championship game between UC Santa Barbara and UC Irvine that tips off at 11:30 p.m.  Please note that, for the bubble teams below, my definition of "the bubble" is any team that's listed in ESPN's Bubble Watch that isn't a "lock."  Of course, there are other teams that may play themselves onto the bubble as the week progresses.

Here's what happened in yesterday's action and what we have to look forward to today:

• In the ACC semis, because of Virginia's withdrawal, 4-seed Georgia Tech advances to the finals.  Elsewhere, 2-seed Florida State held off 6-seed North Carolina, 69-66.  The Yellow Jackets are technically a bubble team, but will likely get into the Big Dance.  It will be their 17th trip and first since 2010.  The Seminoles are a lock for the Tournament, and will be playing in their 18th and first since 2019.
• In the Big 12 semis, top seed Baylor fell to 5-seed Oklahoma State, 83-74, and as discussed above, 3-seed Texas automatically advanced because 2-seed Kansas withdrew.  Both teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  The Cowboys will be playing in their 19th NCAA Tournament and first since 2017, and the Longhorns will be playing in their 35th and first since 2018.
• In the Big East semis, 2-seed Creighton beat 3-seed UConn, 59-56, and Patrick Ewing's 8-seed Georgetown continued its unlikely run, beating 5-seed Seton Hall, 66-58.  The Bluejays are a lock for the NCAA Tournament and will be playing in their 22nd and first since 2018, while the Hoyas have a chance to steal a spot from a bubble team.  They'll be playing for their 31st trip the the NCAA Tournament and first since 2015.
• In the Big Sky semis, 5-seed Montana State upset top seed Southern Utah in OT, 80-77, and 2-seed Eastern Washington prevented an all-Montana final by beating 6-seed Montana, 78-50.  In today's final, the Bobcats will be playing for their 4th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 1996, while the Eagles will be playing for their 3rd berth and first since 2015.
• In the Big West semis, 1-seed UC Santa Barbara trounced 4-seed UC Davis, 71-55, while 2-seed UC Irvine beat up on 3-seed UC Riverside, 78-61.  In tonight's final, the Gauchos will be playing for their 6th trip to the Big Dance and first since 2011, and the Anteaters will be playing for their 3rd trip and first since 2019.
• In the Conference USA semis, East 1-seed Western Kentucky squeaked out a 64-60 victory over West 2-seed UAB, and West 3-seed North Texas upset West 1-seed Louisiana Tech, 54-48.  In tonight's championship game, the Hilltoppers will be playing for their 24th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2013, while the Mean Green will be playing for their 4th berth and first since 2010.
• In the MAAC semis, 7-seed Fairfield upset 3-seed St. Peter's, 52-47, while Rick Pitino and 9-seed Iona beat 5-seed Niagara, 70-64.  Raise your hand if you had a Fairfield/Iona title game in your MAAC bracket.  Didn't think so.  Anywho, when they meet in today's title game, the Stags will be playing for their 4th NCAA Tournament bid and first since 1997, and the Gaels will be playing for their 15th bid and first since 2019.
• In the MAC semis, 1-seed Toledo was upset by 5-seed Ohio, 87-80, and 2-seed Buffalo went to OT before beating 3-seed Akron, 81-74.  The Bobcats will be seeking their 14th NCAA Tournament bid and first since 2012, while the Bulls will be seeking their 5th bid and first since 2019.
• In the MEAC semis, as mentioned above, South 1-seed North Carolina A&T had to forfeit, so 2-seed Norfolk State automatically advanced to the final, where they will meet North 1-seed Coppin State was upset by North 3-seed Morgan State, 82-61.  When they meet in today's championship game, the Spartans will be playing for their 2nd NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2012, when they upset 2-seed Missouri in the first round as a 15-seed, and the Bears will be playing for their 3rd berth and first since 2010.
• In the Mountain West semis, 1-seed San Diego State outlasted 5-seed Nevada, 77-70, while 2-seed Utah State beat 3-seed Colorado State, 62-50.  The Aztecs are likely a lock for their 13th NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2018, and the Aggies have probably played their way off of the bubble and into their 22nd NCAA Tournament and first since 2019.
• In the Pac-12 semis, top-seed Oregon was upset by archrival 5-seed Oregon State, 75-64, and 2-seed USC fell to 3-seed Colorado in a 72-70 thriller.  The Beavers could steal a bid, and are playing for their 18th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2016, while the Buffaloes are locks for their 15th berth and first since 2016.
• In the Southland semis, 1-seed Nicholls State beat 4-seed Northwestern State, 88-76, and 2-seed Abilene Christian dominated 6-seed Lamar, 93-71.  In today's title game, the Colonels will be playing for their 3rd trip to the Big Dance and first since 1998, and the Wildcats will be playing for their 2nd trip and first since 2019.
• In the SWAC semis, top seed Prairie View A&M took care of 4-seed Grambling State, 75-63, and 3-seed Texas Southern took down 2-seed Jackson State in OT, 84-81.  When they meet in today's title game, the Panthers will be seeking their 3rd NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2019, while the Tigers will be playing for their 9th berth and first since 2018.
• In the WAC quarterfinals, 1-seed Grand Canyon demolished 4-seed Seattle, 81-47, and 3-seed new Mexico State downed 2-seed Utah Valley, 78-62.  In tonight's final, the Antelopes will be playing for their 1st ever NCAA Tournament appearance, and the Aggies will be playing for their 26th appearance and first since 2019.
• In the AAC quarterfinals, 1-seed Wichita State escaped with 68-67 win over 8-seed South Florida, 2-seed Houston crushed 10-seed Tulane, 77-52, 3-seed Memphis downed 6-seed UCF, 70-62, and 5-seed Cincinnati beat 4-seed SMU, 74-71.
• In the Big Ten quarterfinals, 1-seed Michigan dropped 8-seed Maryland, 79-66, 2-seed Illinois bombed 7-seed Rutgers, 90-68, 3-seed Iowa eked past 6-seed Wisconsin, 62-57, and 4-seed Purdue fell in OT to 5-seed Ohio State, 87-78.
• In the SEC quarterfinals, top seed Alabama crushed 9-seed Mississippi State, 85-48, 2-seed Arkansas beat 7-seed Missouri, 70-64, 3-seed LSU pulled one out against 6-seed Mississippi, 76-73, and 4-seed Tennessee downed 5-seed Florida, 78-66.
• There are 15 championship games today, and 3 more tournaments with semifinals.
• Here are the teams still playing in the conference tournaments that have already started or will start today that have never been to the NCAA Tournament:
• America East:  4-seed Hartford, 6-seed UMass Lowell
• WAC:  1-seed Grand Canyon
• Bubble teams that won yesterday:  Georgia Tech, Memphis, Utah State, Wichita State
• Bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Colorado State, Connecticut, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Rutgers, Seton Hall, SMU
• Bubble teams that haven't already lost, but were idle yesterday:  St. Bonaventure, VCU

With that, here are the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments.

Tournaments with games today

-AAC

-ACC

-America East

-Big 12

-Big East

-Big Sky

-Big Ten

-Big West

-Conference USA

-MAAC

-MAC

-MEAC

-Mountain West

-Pac-12

-SEC

-Southland

-SWAC

-WAC

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern)

-America East (11 a.m.; ESPN2):  (6) UMass Lowell at (4) Hartford

-MEAC (1:00 p.m.; ESPN2):  (N2) Norfolk State vs. (N3) Morgan State

-MAAC (4 p.m. (ESPNU):  (7) Fairfield vs. (9) Iona

-Big 12 (6 p.m.; ESPN):  (3) Texas vs. (5) Oklahoma State

-Mountain West (6 p.m.; CBS):  (1) San Diego State vs. (2) Utah State

-SWAC (6 p.m.; ESPNU):  (1) Prairie View A&M vs. (3) Texas Southern

-Big East (6:30 p.m.; Fox):  (2) Creighton vs. (8) Georgetown

-MAC (7:30 p.m.; ESPN2):  (2) Buffalo vs. (5) Ohio

-ACC (8:30 p.m.; ESPN):  (2) Florida State vs. (4) Georgia Tech

-Big Sky (9 p.m.; ESPNU):  (2) Eastern Washington vs. (5) Montana State

-Conference USA (9 p.m.; CBSSN):  (E1) Western Kentucky vs. (W3) North Texas

-Southland (9:30 p.m.; ESPN2):  (1) Nicholls State vs. (2) Abilene Christian

-WAC (10 p.m.; ESPNU):  (1) Grand Canyon vs. (3) New Mexico State

-Pac-12 (10:30 p.m.; ESPN):  (3) Colorado vs. (5) Oregon State

-Big West (11:30 p.m.; ESPN):  (1) UC Santa Barbara vs. (2) UC Irvine

Already clinched automatic berths (I will add in parentheses the NCAA tournament appearances for each school, including the bid just clinched, and for conferences whose tournaments have not yet ended, I'll list the date of the championship game)

-AAC (March 14)

-ACC (March 13)

-America East (March 13)

-Atlantic 10 (March 14)

-Atlantic Sun:  Liberty (5)

-Big 12 (March 13)

-Big East (March 13)

-Big Sky (March 13)

-Big South:  Winthrop (11)

-Big Ten (March 14)

-Big West (March 13)

-Colonial:  Drexel (5)

-Conference USA (March 13)

-Horizon:  Cleveland State (3)

-MAAC (March 13)

-MAC (March 13)

-MEAC (March 13)

-Missouri Valley:  Loyola (IL) (7)

-Mountain West (March 13)

-Northeast Conference:  Mount St. Mary's (6)

-Ohio Valley:  Morehead State (8)

-Pac-12 (March 13)

-Patriot League (March 14)

-SEC (March 14)

-Southern Conference:  UNC Greensboro (4)

-Southland (March 13)

-Summit:  Oral Roberts (6)

-Sun Belt:  Appalachian State (3)

-SWAC (March 13)

-WAC (March 13)

-West Coast:  Gonzaga (22)

Because I am unhealthily obsessed with college basketball in March -- to the detriment of my marriage, children, friendships, work, sleep schedule, sanity, wallet, archery practice, and loyalty to Zeus -- I have not only listed out every game and my predictions, but the date, time, and TV station(s) on which the game will appear, even if it's just local, regional, or online, to the extent that information is available.  Some conference tournament websites are better than others.  I want this to be as comprehensive as possible, so that you can always come here to figure out when any given team is playing.  I love you so much, you guys.  Don't you ever forget it.

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern)

AAC (March 11-14; Fort Worth)

3/13 – Semifinals

3 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Wichita State vs. (5) Cincinnati.  Predicted winner:  Wichita State

5:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) Houston vs. (3) Memphis.  Predicted winner:  Houston

3/14 – Finals

3:15 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Wichita State vs. (2) Houston.  Predicted winner:  Houston

ACC (March 9-13; Greensboro)

3/13 – Finals

8:30 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Florida State vs. (4) Georgia Tech.  Predicted winner:  Florida State

America East (February 27-28, March 6, 13; New Hampshire, Hartford for pod play and quarterfinals, campus of higher seed for semis and final)

3/13 – Finals

11 a.m. (ESPN2) (6) UMass Lowell at (4) Hartford.  Predicted winner:  Hartford

Atlantic 10 (March 3-6, 14; Richmond)

3/14 – Finals

1 p.m. (CBS) (1) St. Bonaventure vs. (2) VCU.  Predicted winner:  St. Bonaventure

Big 12 (March 10-13; Kansas City)

3/13 – Finals

6 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Texas vs. (5) Oklahoma State.  Predicted winner:  Texas

Big East (March 10-13; New York)

3/13 – Finals

6:30 p.m. (Fox) (2) Creighton vs. (8) Georgetown.  Predicted winner:  Creighton

Big Sky (March 10-13; Boise)

3/13 – Finals

9 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Eastern Washington vs. (5) Montana State.  Predicted winner:  Eastern Washington

Big Ten (March 10-14; Indianapolis)

3/13 – Semifinals

1 p.m. (CBS) (1) Michigan vs. (5) Ohio State.  Predicted winner:  Michigan

3:30 p.m. (CBS) (3) Iowa vs. (2) Illinois.  Predicted winner:  Iowa

3/14 – Finals

3:30 p.m. (CBS) (1) Michigan vs. (3) Iowa.  Predicted winner:  Michigan

Big West (March 9, 11-13; Las Vegas)

3/13 – Finals

11:30 p.m. (ESPN) (1) UC Santa Barbara vs. (2) UC Irvine.  Predicted winner:  UC Santa Barbara

Conference USA (March 9-13; Frisco, TX)

3/13 – Finals

9 p.m. (CBSSN) (E1) Western Kentucky vs. (W3) North Texas.  Predicted winner:  Western Kentucky

MAAC (March 8-13; Atlantic City, NJ)

3/13 – Finals

4 p.m. (ESPNU) (7) Fairfield vs. (9) Iona.  Predicted winner:  Fairfield

MAC (March 11-13; Cleveland)

3/13 – Finals

7:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) Buffalo vs. (5) Ohio vs. (3) Akron.  Predicted winner:  Buffalo

MEAC (March 11-13; first round at home of better seed, remainder in Norfolk, VA)

3/13 – Final

1:00 p.m. (ESPN2) (N2) Norfolk State vs. (N3) Morgan State.  Predicted winner:  Norfolk State

Mountain West (March 10-13; Las Vegas)

3/13 – Finals

6 p.m. (CBS) (1) San Diego State vs. (2) Utah State.  Predicted winner:  San Diego State

Pac-12 (March 10-13; Las Vegas)

3/13 – Finals

10:30 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Colorado vs. (5) Oregon State.  Predicted winner:  Colorado

Patriot League (March 3, 6, 10, 14; campus of higher seed)

3/14 – Finals

12 p.m. (CBSSN) (9) Loyola (MD) at (2) Colgate.  Predicted winner:  Colgate

SEC (March 10-14; Nashville)

3/13 – Semifinals

1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Alabama vs. (4) Tennessee.  Predicted winner:  Alabama

3:30 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Arkansas vs. (3) LSU.  Predicted winner:  LSU

3/14 – Finals

1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Alabama vs. (3) LSU.  Predicted winner:  Alabama

Southland (March 9-13; Katy, TX)

3/13 – Finals

9:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Nicholls State vs. (2) Abilene Christian.  Predicted winner:  Nicholls State

SWAC (March 10-13; Birmingham, AL)

3/13 – Finals

6 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Prairie View A&M vs. (3) Texas Southern.  Predicted winner:  Prairie View A&M

WAC (March 11-13; Las Vegas)

3/13 – Finals

10 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Grand Canyon vs. (3) New Mexico State.  Predicted winner:  Grand Canyon