This year's NCAA Tournament brackets have been announced, and like last year, I think this will be one of the most unpredictable NCAA Tournaments in recent memory. With some teams dealing with injuries, other teams dealing with inconsistencies, other teams dealing with off-court distractions, and other teams with Achilles' heels, there is not one team or a handful of teams that stands head and shoulders above the rest. This thing is wide open. There are about 15 teams who could legitimately win it all, and they could all lose before the end of the first weekend. I have already filled out 119 brackets, and they're all terrible. Here are a couple initial random thoughts:
- As with last year, I don't think any 1-seeds have an easy path to the Final Four. I wouldn't be surprised if none of them make it to Houston or if all four of them do.
- As always, I would not be surprised if all of the 12-seeds beat all of the 5-seeds. Or none.
- Of the 14 schools with 35 or more NCAA Tournament appearances (including this year) -- Kentucky, North Carolina, Kansas, UCLA, Duke, Syracuse, Indiana, Louisville, Villanova, Notre Dame, Texas, Michigan State, Arkansas, and UConn -- five didn't receive bids to this year's NCAA Tournament (North Carolina, Syracuse, Louisville, Villanova, and Notre Dame).
- One of the "First Four" 16-seeds is Texas Southern -- who won the SWAC Tournament for the 7th time in the last nine -- which was the 8-seed in the SWAC Tournament and has an overall record of 14-20. The 20 losses are the most ever by an automatic qualifier.
- For the first time since 1977, there will be no team from Philadelphia in the NCAA Tournament, as Drexel, LaSalle, Penn, St. Joseph's, Temple, and Villanova all failed to make the tournament this year.
- Here are the ten teams in this year's NCAA Tournament with the most tournament appearances, but no NCAA championship. I'm including the team's seed and region in this year's tournament, the number of NCAA Tournament appearances, the overall rank in number of appearances, and last Final Four appearance, if applicable (* means a team has lost in a national title game, ** means the furthest the team has gone is the Final Four, and *** means the team has never been to a Final Four):
- Texas** - 2-seed Midwest: 37 appearances (T-9th overall); 2003
- Illinois* - 9-seed West: 33 appearances (T-16th overall); 2005
- Purdue* - 1-seed East: 33 appearances (T-16th overall); 1980
- Kansas State* - 3-seed East: 32 appearances (22nd overall); 1964
- West Virginia* - 9-seed South: 31 appearances (T-23rd overall); 2010
- Iowa* - 8-seed Midwest: 29 appearances (T-27th overall); 1980
- Xavier - 3-seed Midwest: 29 appearances (T-27th overall); No Final Four
- Missouri - 7-seed South: 28 appearances (33rd overall); No Final Four
- Pitt - 11-seed Midwest: 27 appearances (T-34th overall); 1941
- Princeton - 15-seed South: 26 appearances (T-36th overall); 1965
- Fuck Purdue
Anyway, as I do every year, here are a couple lists of five teams each in a few categories that you should consider when filling out your brackets. Expect there to be some contradictions, since that's the nature of predicting the NCAA Tournament. Teams are in seed order. So you don't think I'm entirely full of shit (or perhaps to prove that I am), I'll put in parentheses what I correctly predicted last years.
Teams with the best shot at winning it all (last year, I did not have Kansas on this list):
1. Kansas (1-seed West). The Jayhawks are the defending champs. I realize how hard it is to repeat, but they are battle tested, winning the regular season title in the toughest conference (the Big 12). Their "worst" losses this season were to teams who are 6-seeds in the NCAA Tournament (Iowa State and TCU), and they had one of the toughest schedules in the country.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 15-7
2. Alabama (1-seed South). As the #1 overall seed, the Crimson Tide has arguably their best team ever, even with the whole Brandon Miller kerfuffle, winning the SEC regular season and tournament titles. They're one of the best scoring and rebounding teams in the country, which is usually a good combination in March.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 14-4
3. Houston (1-seed Midwest). With 29 wins, Kelvin Sampson's Cougars have won 27+ games five times in the last six years, and they are one of the best defensive teams in the country. If Marcus Sasser is healthy, the Cougars could cut down the nets in their hometown.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 7-2
4. Marquette (2-seed East). It's been a while since the Golden Eagles have been in the national title conversation, but this team has defied expectations and won the Big East regular season title and tournament. They are one of the best teams in the country in offensive efficiency and forcing turnovers, and there isn't anyone in the East Region they can't beat.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 8-5
5. Gonzaga (3-seed West). Behind forwards Drew Timme -- who seems like he's been at Gonzaga since the '90s -- and Julian Strawther, the Zags have been the most efficient offensive team in the country over the last month, on their way to tying for the WCC regular season title and winning the conference tournament.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 6-5
Final Four sleepers (teams seeded 4 or higher) (last year, I did not have North Carolina on this list):
1. UConn (4-seed West). After winning their first 14 games and reaching a #2 ranking, the Huskies lost 6 of their next 8 games, but have righted the ship since then, losing only two games since January 25. They rank in the top 15 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, which is a formula for a deep run in March.Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 6-6
2. Indiana (4-seed Midwest). I'm obviously biased and cautiously optimistic with my Hoosiers. They had some injuries and went through a rough patch in December and January, but have beaten Purdue twice and have two legit stars in Trayce Jackson-Davis and Jalen Hood-Schifino. They have also played a tough schedule, both inside and outside the Big Ten. If they can get a third scoring option to step up in the tournament, Mike Woodson could bring his alma mater back to the promised land.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 8-10
3. Tennessee (4-seed East). The Vols are the best defensive team in the country, and they have been ranked in the Top 10 in the AP poll for much of the year and have wins over Alabama, Kansas, Texas, and Gonzaga.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 10-7
4. Virginia (4-seed South). The Cavaliers tied for the regular season ACC title and were the runner-up in the ACC Tournament, and like any Tony Bennett team, they are one of the best defensive teams in the country and can control the pace of the game to the frustration of their opponents.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 4-4
5. Duke (5-seed East). In Jon Scheyer's first year at the helm, the Blue Devils have gone through some bumps and injury issues, but have been peaking at the right time, winning their last nine games, en route to the ACC Tournament title. They're healthy now and have the talent to make it to Houston.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 9-5
Teams seeded 4 or better who may not make it to the second weekend (last year, I had Illinois on this list):
1. Purdue (1-seed East). The Boilermakers have a long and storied history . . . of underachieving in March. Purdue has been a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament 15 times since seeding began in 1979, failing to advance to the Sweet 16 seven of those times. Last year, they made it the Sweet 16, only to be ousted by 15-seed St. Peter's. Zach Edey is the likely national player of the year, but if any team can limit his production and the role players on the team aren't hitting shots, the Boilers can be beaten, as shown by their four losses in six games during a stretch in February. A second round matchup with either Memphis -- one of the hottest teams in the country over the last two months -- or FAU -- which won 31 games and is coached by Dusty May, a former Indiana student manager under Bob Knight, who will no doubt have the Owls hyped to play Purdue.Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 12-4
2. UCLA (2-seed West). The Bruins have been a consistent Top 10 team this season, but they lost two key players -- guard Jaylen Clark and forward Adem Bona -- to injuries in the last two weeks. That may end up costing them when facing upset-minded 7-seed Northwestern or 10-seed Boise State in the second round.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 6-5
3. Kansas State (3-seed East). The Wildcats have had a great season in the toughest league in the country, but they turn the ball over a lot, and either 6-seed Kentucky or 11-seed Providence could take K State down in the second round -- if the Wildcats aren't upset by Montana State in the first round (see below).
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 7-7
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 8-6
5. Virginia (4-seed South). In a down year for the ACC, the Cavaliers haven't really played that many quality opponents (only eight matchups with NCAA Tournament teams). Their style of play can both stifle opponents or lead to disastrous results (see UMBC in 2018), and if they make it past Furman in the first round, a matchup with San Diego State -- a team with a similar style of play -- or Charleston -- who shoots a ton of threes -- could spell doom in the second round.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 4-4
Teams seeded 12 or higher with the best chance of pulling an upset in the first round (last year, I did not have New Mexico State, Richmond, or St. Peter's on this list):
1. Charleston (12-seed South). The Cougars have compiled a 31-3 record and haven't lost since Groundhog Day. They shoot the three at a higher clip than any other team in the country, and they make 33% of their shots from behind the arc. It's kind of like the old Loyola Marymount offense that was premised on the belief that the more shots you take, the more shots you make. And they crash the offensive boards really well, while their first round opponent, 5-seed San Diego State, is not the best rebounding team.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 1-0
2. Drake (12-seed Midwest). The Bulldogs won the MVC tournament with a 26-point drubbing of regular season champ Bradley in the championship game, and they have only lost twice in their last 18 games. They are a great defensive team and don't turn the ball over very much, which could cause problems for Miami.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 2-0
3. Oral Roberts (12-seed East). Two years ago, the Golden Eagles became the second 15-seed to advance to the Sweet 16 and came within 2 points of advancing to the Elite 8. Star guard Max Abmas is still there and averaged 22.8 points per game this season, and they have added 7'5" Arkansas transfer Connor Vanover in the middle. They are good enough that when they tried to schedule non-conference games with power conference teams, most refused. They haven't lost since January 9 and swept the regular season and conference tournament in the Summit League. On top of their scoring ability, they have the lowest turnover percentage in the country, and they will certainly pumped up to face one of college basketball's blue bloods in Duke.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 1-3
4. VCU (12-seed West). Yes, I realize it's a CYA move to list out all four 12-seeds, but they all really do have a chance at pulling off the upsets. Plus, in five of the last ten tournaments, at least two 12-seeds have beaten 5-seeds, and in three of those years, three 12-seeds won. VCU plays great defense, as does their first round opponent St. Mary's, so it could be a close game, and don't be surprised if the Rams come out on top.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 2-2
5. Montana State (14-seed East). This one is a longshot, as Kansas State has been a Top 15 team for most of the season. Can a Big Sky team beat a 3-seed from the toughest conference in college basketball? In March, anything is possible, and the Bobcats get to the free throw line really well and play great defense. Meanwhile, after a 15-1 start, K-State has gone 8-8 over its last 16 games. Granted, that was in the murderer's row that is the Big 12 this year, but the Wildcats have been one of the worst teams in the country in turning the ball over since the beginning of February, so they better not take Montana State lightly.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams: 0-2
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