Thursday, March 09, 2023

Updated Championship Week Predictions: "Marathon"

Today's Championship Week theme song is "Marathon" by indie pop duo Tennis because today we will have 57 college basketball games over the course of 15 hours -- from the Toledo/Miami (OH) game in the quarterfinals of the MAC Tournament tipping off at 11 a.m. ET until the end of the UC Riverside/UC Davis game in the quarterfinals of the Big West Tournament, the Utah State/New Mexico game in the quarterfinals of the Mountain West Tournament, and the USC/Arizona State game in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 Tournament, all scheduled to tip off at 11:30 p.m. ET.

Here's what happened yesterday, and what we have to look forward to:

  • In the Big Sky title game, 2-seed Montana State topped 9-seed Northern Arizona, 85-78. The Bobcats will be playing in their 5th NCAA Tournament and second in a row.
  • In the Patriot League title game, top seed Colgate beat up on 6-seed Lafayette, winning 79-61 to clinch the Raiders' 6th NCAA Tournament appearance and third in a row.
  • In the Southland championship, top seed Texas A&M Corpus Christi and 2-seed Northwestern State battled to an exciting finish, with Texas A&M CC coming out with a 75-71 win, to clinch the Islanders' 3rd trip to the Big Dance and second in a row.
  • In the first half of the MAAC quarters, 1-seed Iona dominated 8-seed Mount St. Mary's, 74-54, and 10-seed St. Peter's becomes the first 10-seed in MAAC Tournament history to advance to the semifinals, upsetting 2-seed Rider, 70-62, to advance to tomorrow night's semis.
  • In the first half of the MEAC quarters, top seed Howard destroyed 8-seed South Carolina State, 91-56, and 2-seed North Carolina Central followed suit with an 89-59 drubbing of 7-seed Delaware State, to advance to tomorrow night's semis.
  • In the first half of the SWAC quarters, 8-seed Texas Southern -- which has won six of the last eight SWAC Tournaments -- upset 1-seed Alcorn State, 66-62, and 2-seed Grambling cruised past 7-seed Bethune-Cookman, 87-72, to advance to tomorrow night's semis.
  • In the Second Round of the ACC, 5-seed Pitt survived 13-seed Georgia Tech, 89-81, 6-seed NC State trounced 11-seed Virginia Tech, 97-77, 7-seed North Carolina kept its slim NCAA Tournament hopes alive with an 85-61 win over 10-seed Boston College, and 9-seed Wake Forest beat 8-seed Syracuse, 77-74, on a last-second three to send Jim Boeheim into retirement, to advance to today's quarterfinals.
  • In the Second Round of the A-10, 5-seed George Mason eked out a 62-57 win over 12-seed Richmond, 11-seed LaSalle outscored 6-seed Duquesne by 17 in the second half to cruise to an 81-70 win, 10-seed St. Joseph's downed 7-seed George Washington, 87-76, and 8-seed Davidson beat 9-seed St. Bonaventure, 65-54, to advance to today's quarterfinals.
  • In the First Round of the Big 12, 7-seed Oklahoma State beat archrival 10-seed Oklahoma, 57-49, and 8-seed West Virginia crushed 9-seed Texas Tech, 78-62, to advance to today's quarterfinals.
  • In the First Round of the Big East, 6-seed Villanova curb stomped 11-seed Georgetown, 80-48, 10-seed DePaul scored five points in the last seven seconds and got a block on a layup at the buzzer to beat 7-seed Seton Hall, 66-65, and 8-seed St. John's handled 9-seed Butler, 76-63, to advance to today's quarterfinals.
  • In the First Round of the Big Ten, 14-seed Minnesota topped 11-seed Nebraska, 78-75, and 13-seed Ohio State won for the third time in the last four games, beating 12-seed Wisconsin, 65-57 (and all but ending the Badgers' NCAA Tournament hopes), to advance to today's second round.
  • In the First Round of the C-USA, 6-seed Rice barely survived 11-seed UTSA, 72-71, as a UTSA layup at the buzzer was waved off, 10-seed Louisiana Tech bounced 7-seed FIU 81-76 in OT, and 8-seed Western Kentucky outlasted 9-seed UTEP, 73-67, to advance to today's quarterfinals.
  • In the First Round of the MWC, 6-seed New Mexico overpowered 11-seed Wyoming, 87-76, 7-seed UNLV topped 10-seed Air Force in OT, 78-70, and 8-seed Colorado State beat 9-seed Fresno State in a 67-65 thriller, to advance to today's quarterfinals.
  • In the First Round of the Pac-12, 5-seed Washington State beat up on 12-seed Cal, 69-52, 6-seed Arizona State improved its NCAA Tournament bubble status with a 63-57 win over 11-seed Oregon State, 10-seed Stanford downed 7-seed Utah, 73-62, and 9-seed Colorado beat 8-seed Washington, 74-68, to advance to today's quarterfinals.
  • In the First Round of the SEC, 14-seed LSU ousted 11-seed Georgia, 72-67, and 13-seed Mississippi topped 12-seed South Carolina, 67-61, to advance to today's second round.
  • Two conference tournaments start today (AAC, MAC), and a total of 16 conference tournaments have games today.
  • No bids are up for grabs until Saturday and no conference tournaments have semifinals today, but 13 have quarterfinals (ACC, A-10, Big 12, Big East, Big West, C-USA, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, MWC, Pac-12, SWAC, WAC).
  • Here are the teams still alive in conference tournaments that have never been to the NCAA Tournament (not including teams who are ineligible for this year's NCAA Tournament):
    • America East:  2-seed UMass Lowell
    • Big West:  3-seed UC Riverside
    • MAAC:  3-seed Quinnipiac
    • MEAC:  4-seed Maryland Eastern Shore
    • SWAC:  2-seed Grambling
    • WAC:  2-seed Utah Valley, 8-seed Cal Baptist, 10-seed UT Rio Grande Valley
  • Bubble teams that won yesterday:  Arizona State, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
  • Bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Texas Tech, Wisconsin
  • Bubble teams not in action yesterday (that are still alive in conference tournaments):  Arkansas, Auburn, Boise State, Clemson, FAU, Illinois, Maryland, Memphis, Michigan, Mississippi State, Missouri, Nevada, North Texas, Oregon, Penn State,  Providence, Rutgers, USC, Utah State, Vanderbilt
Here are the tournaments starting today, the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments.

Tournaments starting today
-AAC
-MAC

Tournaments with games today
-AAC
-ACC
-Atlantic 10
-Big 12
-Big East
-Big Ten
-Big West
-Conference USA
-MAAC
-MAC
-MEAC
-Mountain West
-Pac-12
-SEC
-SWAC
-WAC

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern)
-None

Already clinched automatic berths (I will add in parentheses the NCAA tournament appearances for each school, including the bid just clinched and last NCAA Tournament appearance where applicable, and for conferences whose tournaments have not yet ended, I'll list the date of the championship game)
-AAC (March 12)
-ACC (March 11)
-America East (March 11)
-Atlantic 10 (March 12)
-Atlantic Sun:  Kennesaw State (1)
-Big 12 (March 11)
-Big East (March 11)
-Big Sky:  Montana State (5)
-Big South:  UNC Asheville (5)
-Big Ten (March 12)
-Big West (March 11)
-Colonial:  Charleston (6)
-Conference USA (March 11)
-Horizon:  Northern Kentucky (3)
-Ivy League (March 12)
-MAAC (March 11)
-MAC (March 11)
-MEAC (March 11)
-Missouri Valley:  Drake (6)
-Mountain West (March 11)
-Northeast Conference:  Fairleigh Dickinson (7)
-Ohio Valley:  Southeast Missouri State (2)
-Pac-12 (March 11)
-Patriot League:  Colgate (6)
-SEC (March 12)
-Southern Conference:  Furman (7)
-Southland:  Texas A&M Corpus Christi (3)
-Summit:  Oral Roberts (6)
-Sun Belt:  Louisiana (11)
-SWAC (March 11)
-WAC (March 11)
-West Coast:  Gonzaga (25)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern; to the extent there are teams that have clinched seeds in tournament fields that are not completely set, I will put those in)

AAC (March 9-12; Fort Worth)
3/9 – First Round
12:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (8) South Florida vs. (9) East Carolina.  Predicted winner:  East Carolina
2:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (7) Central Florida vs. (10) SMU.  Predicted winner:  Central Florida
7 p.m. (ESPNU) (6) Wichita State vs. (11) Tulsa.  Predicted winner:  Wichita State
3/10 – Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Houston vs. (9) East Carolina.  Predicted winner:  Houston
3 p.m. (ESPN2) (4) Cincinnati vs. (5) Temple.  Predicted winner:  Cincinnati
7 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Memphis vs. (7) Central Florida.  Predicted winner:  Memphis
9 p.m. (ESPNU) (3) Tulane vs. (6) Wichita State.  Predicted winner:  Tulane
3/11 – Semifinals
3 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Houston vs. (4) Cincinnati.  Predicted winner:  Houston
5 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) Memphis vs. (3) Tulane.  Predicted winner:  Tulane
3/12 – Finals
3:15 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Houston vs. (3) Tulane.  Predicted winner:  Houston

ACC (March 7-11; Greensboro)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Miami vs. (9) Wake Forest.  Predicted winner:  Miami
2:30 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (4) Duke vs. (5) Pittsburgh.  Predicted winner:  Pittsburgh
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (2) Virginia vs. (7) North Carolina.  Predicted winner:  Virginia
9:30 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (3) Clemson vs. (6) NC State.  Predicted winner:  NC State
3/10 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Miami vs. (5) Pittsburgh.  Predicted winner:  Pittsburgh
9:30 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (2) Virginia vs. (6) NC State.  Predicted winner:  Virginia
3/11 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Virginia vs. (5) Pittsburgh.  Predicted winner:  Virginia

America East (March 4, 7, 11; campus of higher seed for semis and final)
3/11 – Finals
11 a.m. (ESPN2) (2) UMass Lowell at (1) Vermont.  Predicted winner:  Vermont

Atlantic 10 (March 7-12; Brooklyn)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (USA) (1) VCU vs. (8) Davidson.  Predicted winner:  VCU
2:30 p.m. (USA) (4) St. Louis vs. (5) George Mason.  Predicted winner:  St. Louis
6 p.m. (USA) (2) Dayton vs. (10) St. Joseph's.  Predicted winner:  Dayton
8:30 p.m. (USA) (3) Fordham vs. (11) LaSalle.  Predicted winner:  Fordham
3/11 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) VCU vs. (4) St. Louis.  Predicted winner:  VCU
3:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Dayton vs. (3) Fordham.  Predicted winner:  Fordham
3/12 – Finals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) VCU vs. (3) Fordham.  Predicted winner:  VCU

Big 12 (March 8-11; Kansas City)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
12:30 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (4) Baylor vs. (5) Iowa State.  Predicted winner:  Baylor
3 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Kansas vs. (8) West Virginia.  Predicted winner:  Kansas
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (2) Texas vs. (7) Oklahoma State.  Predicted winner:  Texas
9:30 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (3) Kansas State vs. (6) TCU.  Predicted winner:  TCU
3/10 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Kansas vs. (4) Baylor.  Predicted winner:  Kansas
9:30 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (2) Texas vs. (6) TCU.  Predicted winner:  Texas
3/11 – Finals
6 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Kansas vs. (2) Texas.  Predicted winner:  Kansas

Big East (March 8-11; New York)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (FS1) (1) Marquette vs. (8) St. John's.  Predicted winner:  Marquette
2:30 p.m. (FS1) (4) UConn vs. (5) Providence.  Predicted winner:  UConn
7 p.m. (FS1) (2) Xavier vs. (10) DePaul.  Predicted winner:  Xavier
9:30 p.m. (FS1) (3) Creighton vs. (6) Villanova.  Predicted winner:  Creighton
3/10 – Semifinals
6:30 p.m. (FS1) (1) Marquette vs. (4) UConn.  Predicted winner:  UConn
9 p.m. (FS1) (2) Xavier vs. (3) Creighton.  Predicted winner:  Xavier
3/11 – Finals
6:30 p.m. (Fox) (2) Xavier vs. (4) UConn.  Predicted winner:  Xavier

Big Ten (March 8-12; Chicago)
3/9 – Second Round
12 p.m. (BTN) (8) Michigan vs. (9) Rutgers.  Predicted winner:  Rutgers
2:30 p.m. (BTN) (5) Iowa vs. (13) Ohio State.  Predicted winner:  Ohio State
6:30 p.m. (BTN) (7) Illinois vs. (10) Penn State.  Predicted winner:  Penn State
9 p.m. (BTN) (6) Maryland vs. (14) Minnesota.  Predicted winner:  Maryland
3/10 – Quarterfinals
Noon (BTN) (1) Purdue vs. (9) Rutgers.  Predicted winner:  Purdue
2:30 p.m. (BTN) (4) Michigan State vs. (13) Ohio State.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State
6:30 p.m. (BTN) (2) Northwestern vs. (10) Penn State.  Predicted winner:  Penn State
9 p.m. (BTN) (3) Indiana vs. (6) Maryland.  Predicted winner:  Indiana
3/11 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) Purdue vs. (4) Michigan State.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (3) Indiana vs. (10) Penn State.  Predicted winner:  Indiana
3/12 – Finals
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (3) Indiana vs. (4) Michigan State.  Predicted winner:  Indiana

Big West (March 7, 9-11; Henderson, NV)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (ESPN+) (1) UC Irvine vs. (8) Cal State Bakersfield.  Predicted winner:  UC Irvine
5 p.m. (ESPN+) (4) Cal State Fullerton vs. (5) Hawaii.  Predicted winner:  Hawaii
9 p.m. (ESPN+) (2) UC Santa Barbara vs. (10) Cal Poly.  Predicted winner:  UC Santa Barbara
11:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (3) UC Riverside vs. (6) UC Davis.  Predicted winner:  UC Riverside
3/10 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (ESPN+) (1) UC Irvine vs. (5) Hawaii.  Predicted winner:  Hawaii
11:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) UC Santa Barbara vs. (3) UC Riverside.  Predicted winner:  UC Santa Barbara
3/11 – Finals
9:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) UC Santa Barbara vs. (5) Hawaii.  Predicted winner:  UC Santa Barbara

Conference USA (March 8-11; Frisco, TX)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
6:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (1) FAU vs. (8) Western Kentucky.  Predicted winner:  FAU
7 p.m. (ESPN+) (4) Middle Tennessee State vs. (5) Charlotte.  Predicted winner:  Middle Tennessee State
9 p.m. (ESPN+) (2) North Texas vs. (10) Louisiana Tech.  Predicted winner:  North Texas
9:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (3) UAB vs. (6) Rice.  Predicted winner:  UAB
3/10 – Semifinals
12:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) FAU vs. (4) Middle Tennessee State.  Predicted winner:  FAU
3 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) North Texas vs. (3) UAB.  Predicted winner:  North Texas
3/11 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) FAU vs. (2) North Texas.  Predicted winner:  FAU

Ivy League (March 11-12; Princeton, NJ)
3/11 - Semifinals
11 a.m. (ESPNU) (1) Yale vs. (4) Cornell.  Predicted winner:  Yale
2 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Princeton vs. (3) Penn.  Predicted winner:  Princeton
3/12 - Finals
Noon (ESPN2) (1) Yale vs. (2) Princeton.  Predicted winner:  Princeton

MAAC (March 7-11; Atlantic City, NJ)
Quarterfinals
3/9
7 p.m. (ESPN+) (3) Quinnipiac vs. (11) Marist.  Predicted winner:  Quinnipiac
9:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (4) Siena vs. (5) Niagara.  Predicted winner:  Siena
3/10 – Semifinals
6 p.m. (ESPNews) (1) Iona vs. (4) Siena.  Predicted winner:  Iona
8:30 p.m. (ESPNews) (3) Quinnipiac vs. (10) St. Peter's.  Predicted winner:  Quinnipiac
3/11 – Finals
4 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Iona vs. (3) Quinnipiac.  Predicted winner:  Iona

MAC (March 9-11; Cleveland)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
11 a.m. (ESPN+) (1) Toledo vs. (8) Miami (OH).  Predicted winner:  Toledo
1:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (4) Ball State vs. (5) Ohio.  Predicted winner:  Ball State
4 p.m. (ESPN+) (2) Kent State vs. (7) Northern Illinois.  Predicted winner:  Kent State
6:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (3) Akron vs. (6) Buffalo.  Predicted winner:  Akron
3/10 – Semifinals
5 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Toledo vs. (4) Ball State.  Predicted winner: Toledo
7:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Kent State vs. (3) Akron.  Predicted winner:  Kent State
3/11 – Finals
7:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Toledo vs. (2) Kent State.  Predicted winner:  Toledo

MEAC (March 8-11; Norfolk, VA)
Quarterfinals
3/9
6 p.m. (ESPN+) (4) Maryland Eastern Shore vs. (5) Morgan State.  Predicted winner:  Maryland Eastern Shore
8 p.m. (ESPN+) (3) Norfolk State vs. (6) Coppin State.  Predicted winner:  Norfolk State
3/10 – Semifinals
6 p.m. (ESPN+) (1) Howard vs. (4) Maryland Eastern Shore.  Predicted winner:  Howard
8 p.m. (ESPN+) (2) North Carolina Central vs. (3) Norfolk State.  Predicted winner:  Norfolk State
3/11 – Final
1:00 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Howard vs. (3) Norfolk State.  Predicted winner:  Norfolk State

Mountain West (March 8-11; Las Vegas)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) San Diego State vs. (8) Colorado State.  Predicted winner:  San Diego State
5:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (4) Nevada vs. (5) San Jose State.  Predicted winner:  Nevada
9 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Boise State vs. (7) UNLV.  Predicted winner:  Boise State
11:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (3) Utah State vs. (6) New Mexico.  Predicted winner:  Utah State
3/10 – Semifinals
9:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) San Diego State vs. (4) Nevada.  Predicted winner:  San Diego State
11:59 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Boise State vs. (3) Utah State.  Predicted winner:  Utah State
3/11 – Finals
6 p.m. (CBS) (1) San Diego State vs. (3) Utah State.  Predicted winner:  San Diego State

Pac-12 (March 8-11; Paradise, NV)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (1) UCLA vs. (9) Colorado.  Predicted winner:  UCLA
5:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (4) Oregon vs. (5) Washington State.  Predicted winner:  Oregon
9 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (2) Arizona vs. (10) Stanford.  Predicted winner:  Arizona
11:30 p.m. (ESPN) (3) USC vs. (6) Arizona State.  Predicted winner:  Arizona State
3/10 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (1) UCLA vs. (4) Oregon.  Predicted winner:  UCLA
11:30 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Arizona vs. (6) Arizona State.  Predicted winner:  Arizona
3/11 – Finals
10:30 p.m. (ESPN) (1) UCLA vs. (2) Arizona.  Predicted winner:  Arizona

SEC (March 8-12; Nashville)
3/9 – Second Round
1 p.m. (SEC Network) (8) Florida vs. (9) Mississippi State.  Predicted winner:  Mississippi State
3 p.m. (SEC Network) (5) Tennessee vs. (13) Mississippi.  Predicted winner:  Tennessee
7 p.m. (SEC Network) (7) Auburn vs. (10) Arkansas.  Predicted winner:  Auburn
9 p.m. (SEC Network) (6) Vanderbilt vs. (14) LSU.  Predicted winner:  Vanderbilt
3/10 – Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Alabama vs. (9) Mississippi State.  Predicted winner:  Alabama
3 p.m. (ESPN) (4) Missouri vs. (5) Tennessee.  Predicted winner:  Tennessee
7 p.m. (SEC Network) (2) Texas A&M vs. (7) Auburn.  Predicted winner:  Texas A&M
9 p.m. (SEC Network) (3) Kentucky vs. (6) Vanderbilt.  Predicted winner:  Kentucky
3/11 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Alabama vs. (5) Tennessee.  Predicted winner:  Alabama
3 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Texas A&M vs. (3) Kentucky.  Predicted winner:  Kentucky
3/12 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Alabama vs. (3) Kentucky.  Predicted winner:  Alabama

SWAC (March 8-11; Birmingham, AL)
Quarterfinals
3/9
3 p.m. (ESPN+) (3) Jackson State vs. (6) Prairie View A&M.  Predicted winner:  Jackson State
9:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (4) Southern vs. (5) Alabama A&M.  Predicted winner:  Southern
3/10 – Semifinals
3 p.m. (ESPN+) (4) Southern v. (8) Texas Southern.  Predicted winner:  Southern
9:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (2) Grambling vs. (3) Jackson State.  Predicted winner:  Grambling
3/11 – Finals
5:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Grambling vs. (4) Southern.  Predicted winner:  Grambling

WAC (March 7, 9-11; Paradise, NV)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (ESPN+) (1) Sam Houston State vs. (8) Cal Baptist.  Predicted winner:  Sam Houston State
5 p.m. (ESPN+) (4) Seattle vs. (5) Grand Canyon.  Predicted winner:  Grand Canyon
9 p.m. (ESPN+) (2) Utah Valley vs. (7) Tarleton*.  Predicted winner:  Utah Valley
11 p.m. (ESPN+) (3) Southern Utah vs. (11) Utah Tech*.  Predicted winner:  Southern Utah
3/10 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (ESPN+) (1) Sam Houston State vs. (5) Grand Canyon.  Predicted winner:  Sam Houston State
11 p.m. (ESPN+) (2) Utah Valley vs. (3) Southern Utah.  Predicted winner:  Utah Valley
3/11 – Finals
11:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Sam Houston State vs. (2) Utah Valley.  Predicted winner:  Sam Houston State
*Ineligible for NCAA Tournament because still in transition period from D-II.

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