Friday, March 10, 2023

Updated Championship Week Predictions: "Semi-Charmed Life"

Today's Championship Week theme song is Third Eye Blind's 1997 hit "Semi-Charmed Life," not because I am, was, or intend to be a crystal meth addict, but because there are 24 semifinals games in today's Championship Week action. Overall, we will have 36 college basketball games over the course of 14+ hours -- from the Purdue/Rutgers game in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament tipping off at 12 p.m. ET until the end of the Boise State/Utah State game in the semifinals of the Mountain West Tournament, scheduled to tip off at 11:59 p.m. ET.  There were a lot of great games yesterday, and definitely some bubbles that may have been burst.

Here's what happened yesterday, and what we have to look forward to:

  • In the ACC quarterfinals, top seed Miami got all that it could handle from 9-seed Wake Forest, before pulling out a 74-72 win, 2-seed Virginia likely ended preseason #1 and 7-seed North Carolina's NCAA Tournament hopes with a 68-59 win, 3-seed Clemson destroyed 6-seed NC State, 80-54, and 4-seed Duke dominated 5-seed Pitt, 96-69, to advance to tonight's semifinals.
  • In the A-10 quarters, it went chalk, as 1-seed VCU easily beat 8-seed Davidson, 71-53, 2-seed Dayton dropped 10-seed St. Joseph's, 60-54, 3-seed Fordham downed 11-seed LaSalle, 69-61, and 4-seed St. Louis crushed 5-seed George Mason, 82-54, to advance to tomorrow's semis.
  • In the Big 12 quarterfinals, 1-seed Kansas cruised to a 78-61 win over 8-seed West Virginia, 2-seed Texas downed 7-seed Oklahoma State, 60-47, 6-seed TCU took out 3-seed Kansas State, 80-67, and 5-seed Iowa State upset 4-seed Baylor, 78-72, to advance to tonight's semifinals.
  • In the Big East quarters, top seed Marquette needed OT to hold off 8-seed St. John's, 72-70, 2-seed Xavier came back to beat 10-seed DePaul, 89-84, 3-seed Creighton dropped 6-seed Villanova, 87-74, and 4-seed UConn beat 5-seed Providence, 73-66, to advance to tonight's semifinals.
  • In the Big West quarterfinals, 1-seed UC Irvine dominated 8-seed Cal State Bakersfield, 75-51, 2-seed UC Santa Barbara beat 10-seed Cal Poly, 64-54, 3-seed UC Riverside crushed 6-seed UC Davis, 68-52, and 4-seed Cal State Fullerton held off 5-seed Hawaii, 62-60 in OT, to advance to tonight's semis.
  • In the C-USA quarterfinals, top seed FAU annihilated 8-seed Western Kentucky, 75-51, 2-seed North Texas crushed 10-seed Louisiana Tech, 74-46, 3-seed UAB destroyed 6-seed Rice, 87-60, and 4-seed Middle Tennessee State squeaked by 5-seed Charlotte, 66-65, to advance to today's semis.
  • In the second half of the MAAC quarters, a night after 10-seed St. Peter's upset 2-seed Rider, 11-seed Marist upset 3-seed Quinnipiac, 75-59, and 5-seed Niagara upended 4-seed Siena, 71-65, to advance to tonight's semis.  Somewhere Calvin Murphy is twirling batons while hitting free throws.
  • In the MAC quarterfinals, the top four seeds all had commanding victories, as top-seed Toledo trounced 8-seed Miami (OH), 91-75, 2-seed Kent State handled 7-seed Northern Illinois, 76-57, 3-seed Akron destroyed 6-seed Buffalo, 101-77, and 5-seed Ohio crushed 4-seed Ball State, 90-70, to advance to tonight's all-Ohio semifinals.
  • In the second half of the MEAC quarters, 3-seed Norfolk State drubbed 6-seed Coppin State, 73-56, and 4-seed Maryland Eastern Shore made easy work of 5-seed Morgan State, 80-64, to advance to tonight's semis.
  • In the MWC quarterfinals, top seed San Diego State escaped with a 64-61 win over 8-seed Colorado State, 2-seed Boise State blew a 22-point lead but still held off 7-seed UNLV, 87-76 in OT, 3-seed Utah State took down 6-seed New Mexico, 91-76, and 5-seed San Jose State may have spoiled 4-seed Nevada's NCAA Tournament hopes with an 81-77 victory in OT, to advance to tonight's semifinals.
  • In the Pac-12 quarters, 1-seed UCLA pulled away in the last ten minutes for an 80-69 win over 9-seed Colorado, 2-seed Arizona beat 10-seed Stanford, 95-84, 6-seed Arizona State beat 3-seed USC, 77-72, 4-seed Oregon avoided having its bubble burst with a 75-70 win over 5-seed Washington State, to advance to tonight's semis.
  • In the second half of the SWAC quarters, 3-seed Jackson State needed OT to beat 6-seed Prairie View A&M, 62-60, and 5-seed Alabama A&M ousted 4-seed Southern, 77-63, to advance to today's semis.
  • In the WAC quarterfinals, 1-seed Sam Houston State downed 8-seed Cal Baptist, 64-51, 2-seed Utah Valley bounced 7-seed Tarleton, 72-58, 3-seed Southern Utah narrowly avoided the upset with a 76-75 win over 11-seed Utah Tech, 5-seed Grand Canyon beat 4-seed Seattle, 84-79, to advance to tonight's semifinals.  Somewhere, Elgin Baylor is shaking his head, or at least he would be if he were still alive.
  • In the Second Round of the Big Ten, 13-seed Ohio State upset 5-seed Iowa, 73-69, to become the third 13-seed in Big Ten Tournament history to make it to the quarterfinals, 6-seed Maryland rolled 14-seed Minnesota, 70-54, and in two battles of bubble teams, 10-seed Penn State beat 7-seed Illinois, 79-76, and 9-seed Rutgers topped 8-seed Michigan, 62-50, to advance to today's quarterfinals.  The lower-seeded team won the first five games for the first time in Big Ten Tournament history.
  • In the Second Round of the SEC, 5-seed Tennessee beat 13-seed Ole Miss, 70-55, 6-seed Vanderbilt dropped 14-seed LSU, 77-68, 10-seed Arkansas upset 7-seed Auburn, 76-73, and 9-seed Mississippi State avoided bubble disaster, topping 8-seed Florida in OT, 69-68 to advance to today's quarterfinals.
  • In the First Round of the AAC, 6-seed Wichita State manhandled 11-seed Tulsa, 81-63, 7-seed UCF topped 10-seed SMU, 76-70, and 9-seed East Carolina beat 8-seed South Florida, 73-58, to advance to today's quarterfinals.
  • No conference tournaments start today, but a total of 15 conference tournaments have games today.
  • No bids are up for grabs until tomorrow, 12 conference tournaments have semifinals today (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big West, C-USA, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, MWC, Pac-12, SWAC, WAC), and 3 have quarterfinals (AAC, Big Ten, SEC).
  • Here are the teams still alive in conference tournaments that have never been to the NCAA Tournament (not including teams who are ineligible for this year's NCAA Tournament):
    • America East:  2-seed UMass Lowell
    • Big West:  3-seed UC Riverside
    • MEAC:  4-seed Maryland Eastern Shore
    • SWAC:  2-seed Grambling
    • WAC:  2-seed Utah Valley
  • Bubble teams that won yesterday:  Arizona State, Arkansas, Boise State, Clemson, FAU, Maryland, Mississippi State, North Texas, Oregon, Penn State, Rutgers, Utah State, Vanderbilt
  • Bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Auburn, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, Providence, USC, West Virginia
  • Bubble teams not in action yesterday (that are still alive in conference tournaments):  Memphis, Missouri
Here are the tournaments starting today, the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments.

Tournaments starting today
-None

Tournaments with games today
-AAC
-ACC
-Big 12
-Big East
-Big Ten
-Big West
-Conference USA
-MAAC
-MAC
-MEAC
-Mountain West
-Pac-12
-SEC
-SWAC
-WAC

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern)
-None

Already clinched automatic berths (I will add in parentheses the NCAA tournament appearances for each school, including the bid just clinched and last NCAA Tournament appearance where applicable, and for conferences whose tournaments have not yet ended, I'll list the date of the championship game)
-AAC (March 12)
-ACC (March 11)
-America East (March 11)
-Atlantic 10 (March 12)
-Atlantic Sun:  Kennesaw State (1)
-Big 12 (March 11)
-Big East (March 11)
-Big Sky:  Montana State (5)
-Big South:  UNC Asheville (5)
-Big Ten (March 12)
-Big West (March 11)
-Colonial:  Charleston (6)
-Conference USA (March 11)
-Horizon:  Northern Kentucky (3)
-Ivy League (March 12)
-MAAC (March 11)
-MAC (March 11)
-MEAC (March 11)
-Missouri Valley:  Drake (6)
-Mountain West (March 11)
-Northeast Conference:  Fairleigh Dickinson (7)
-Ohio Valley:  Southeast Missouri State (2)
-Pac-12 (March 11)
-Patriot League:  Colgate (6)
-SEC (March 12)
-Southern Conference:  Furman (7)
-Southland:  Texas A&M Corpus Christi (3)
-Summit:  Oral Roberts (6)
-Sun Belt:  Louisiana (11)
-SWAC (March 11)
-WAC (March 11)
-West Coast:  Gonzaga (25)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern; to the extent there are teams that have clinched seeds in tournament fields that are not completely set, I will put those in)

AAC (March 9-12; Fort Worth)
3/10 – Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Houston vs. (9) East Carolina.  Predicted winner:  Houston
3 p.m. (ESPN2) (4) Cincinnati vs. (5) Temple.  Predicted winner:  Cincinnati
7 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Memphis vs. (7) Central Florida.  Predicted winner:  Memphis
9 p.m. (ESPNU) (3) Tulane vs. (6) Wichita State.  Predicted winner:  Tulane
3/11 – Semifinals
3 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Houston vs. (4) Cincinnati.  Predicted winner:  Houston
5 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) Memphis vs. (3) Tulane.  Predicted winner:  Tulane
3/12 – Finals
3:15 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Houston vs. (3) Tulane.  Predicted winner:  Houston

ACC (March 7-11; Greensboro)
3/10 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Miami vs. (4) Duke.  Predicted winner:  Duke
9:30 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (2) Virginia vs. (3) Clemson.  Predicted winner:  Virginia
3/11 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Virginia vs. (4) Duke.  Predicted winner:  Virginia

America East (March 4, 7, 11; campus of higher seed for semis and final)
3/11 – Finals
11 a.m. (ESPN2) (2) UMass Lowell at (1) Vermont.  Predicted winner:  Vermont

Atlantic 10 (March 7-12; Brooklyn)
3/11 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) VCU vs. (4) St. Louis.  Predicted winner:  VCU
3:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Dayton vs. (3) Fordham.  Predicted winner:  Fordham
3/12 – Finals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) VCU vs. (3) Fordham.  Predicted winner:  VCU

Big 12 (March 8-11; Kansas City)
3/10 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Kansas vs. (5) Iowa State.  Predicted winner:  Kansas
9:30 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (2) Texas vs. (6) TCU.  Predicted winner:  Texas
3/11 – Finals
6 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Kansas vs. (2) Texas.  Predicted winner:  Kansas

Big East (March 8-11; New York)
3/10 – Semifinals
6:30 p.m. (FS1) (1) Marquette vs. (4) UConn.  Predicted winner:  UConn
9 p.m. (FS1) (2) Xavier vs. (3) Creighton.  Predicted winner:  Xavier
3/11 – Finals
6:30 p.m. (Fox) (2) Xavier vs. (4) UConn.  Predicted winner:  Xavier

Big Ten (March 8-12; Chicago)
3/10 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (BTN) (1) Purdue vs. (9) Rutgers.  Predicted winner:  Purdue
2:30 p.m. (BTN) (4) Michigan State vs. (13) Ohio State.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State
6:30 p.m. (BTN) (2) Northwestern vs. (10) Penn State.  Predicted winner:  Penn State
9 p.m. (BTN) (3) Indiana vs. (6) Maryland.  Predicted winner:  Indiana
3/11 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) Purdue vs. (4) Michigan State.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (3) Indiana vs. (10) Penn State.  Predicted winner:  Indiana
3/12 – Finals
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (3) Indiana vs. (4) Michigan State.  Predicted winner:  Indiana

Big West (March 7, 9-11; Henderson, NV)
3/10 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (ESPN+) (1) UC Irvine vs. (4) Cal State Fullerton.  Predicted winner:  UC Irvine
11:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) UC Santa Barbara vs. (3) UC Riverside.  Predicted winner:  UC Santa Barbara
3/11 – Finals
9:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) UC Irvine vs. (2) UC Santa Barbara.  Predicted winner:  UC Santa Barbara

Conference USA (March 8-11; Frisco, TX)
3/10 – Semifinals
12:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) FAU vs. (4) Middle Tennessee State.  Predicted winner:  FAU
3 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) North Texas vs. (3) UAB.  Predicted winner:  North Texas
3/11 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) FAU vs. (2) North Texas.  Predicted winner:  FAU

Ivy League (March 11-12; Princeton, NJ)
3/11 - Semifinals
11 a.m. (ESPNU) (1) Yale vs. (4) Cornell.  Predicted winner:  Yale
2 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Princeton vs. (3) Penn.  Predicted winner:  Princeton
3/12 - Finals
Noon (ESPN2) (1) Yale vs. (2) Princeton.  Predicted winner:  Princeton

MAAC (March 7-11; Atlantic City, NJ)
3/10 – Semifinals
6 p.m. (ESPNews) (1) Iona vs. (5) Niagara.  Predicted winner:  Iona
8:30 p.m. (ESPNews) (10) St. Peter's vs. (11) Marist.  Predicted winner:  St. Peter's
3/11 – Finals
4 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Iona vs. (10) St. Peter's.  Predicted winner:  Iona

MAC (March 9-11; Cleveland)
3/10 – Semifinals
5 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Toledo vs. (5) Ohio.  Predicted winner: Toledo
7:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Kent State vs. (3) Akron.  Predicted winner:  Kent State
3/11 – Finals
7:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Toledo vs. (2) Kent State.  Predicted winner:  Toledo

MEAC (March 8-11; Norfolk, VA)
3/10 – Semifinals
6 p.m. (ESPN+) (1) Howard vs. (4) Maryland Eastern Shore.  Predicted winner:  Howard
8 p.m. (ESPN+) (2) North Carolina Central vs. (3) Norfolk State.  Predicted winner:  Norfolk State
3/11 – Final
1:00 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Howard vs. (3) Norfolk State.  Predicted winner:  Norfolk State

Mountain West (March 8-11; Las Vegas)
3/10 – Semifinals
9:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) San Diego State vs. (5) San Jose State.  Predicted winner:  San Diego State
11:59 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Boise State vs. (3) Utah State.  Predicted winner:  Utah State
3/11 – Finals
6 p.m. (CBS) (1) San Diego State vs. (3) Utah State.  Predicted winner:  San Diego State

Pac-12 (March 8-11; Paradise, NV)
3/10 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (1) UCLA vs. (4) Oregon.  Predicted winner:  UCLA
11:30 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Arizona vs. (6) Arizona State.  Predicted winner:  Arizona
3/11 – Finals
10:30 p.m. (ESPN) (1) UCLA vs. (2) Arizona.  Predicted winner:  Arizona

SEC (March 8-12; Nashville)
3/10 – Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Alabama vs. (9) Mississippi State.  Predicted winner:  Alabama
3 p.m. (ESPN) (4) Missouri vs. (5) Tennessee.  Predicted winner:  Tennessee
7 p.m. (SEC Network) (2) Texas A&M vs. (10) Arkansas.  Predicted winner:  Texas A&M
9 p.m. (SEC Network) (3) Kentucky vs. (6) Vanderbilt.  Predicted winner:  Kentucky
3/11 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Alabama vs. (5) Tennessee.  Predicted winner:  Alabama
3 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Texas A&M vs. (3) Kentucky.  Predicted winner:  Kentucky
3/12 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Alabama vs. (3) Kentucky.  Predicted winner:  Alabama

SWAC (March 8-11; Birmingham, AL)
3/10 – Semifinals
3 p.m. (ESPN+) (5) Alabama A&M v. (8) Texas Southern.  Predicted winner:  Texas Southern
9:30 p.m. (ESPN+) (2) Grambling vs. (3) Jackson State.  Predicted winner:  Grambling
3/11 – Finals
5:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Grambling vs. (8) Texas Southern.  Predicted winner:  Grambling

WAC (March 7, 9-11; Paradise, NV)
3/10 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (ESPN+) (1) Sam Houston State vs. (5) Grand Canyon.  Predicted winner:  Sam Houston State
11 p.m. (ESPN+) (2) Utah Valley vs. (3) Southern Utah.  Predicted winner:  Utah Valley
3/11 – Finals
11:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Sam Houston State vs. (2) Utah Valley.  Predicted winner:  Sam Houston State

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