Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Tuesday Top Ten: Fun Facts About This Year's NCAA Tournament

Well, holy shit.  Now that was a great first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.  We had major -- major -- upsets, buzzer beaters, overtime games, and, of course, Sister Jean.  The first two rounds featured 17 games decided by five points or less, including 2 OT games.  Two 1-seeds, two 2-seeds, 2 3-seeds, and 3 4-seeds fell this weekend.

If the Sweet 16 is half as good as the first two rounds, then we should be in for a treat.  Here are the Sweet 16 teams, along with the last time they made the Sweet 16 (and their region, seeds, game time, and what station is televising the game):

South Region (Atlanta)
(7) Nevada (2004) vs. (11) Loyola (IL) (1985) - Thursday 3/22 7:07 ET CBS
(5) Kentucky (2017) vs. (9) Kansas State (2010) - Thursday 3/22 9:37 ET CBS

West Region (Los Angeles)
(3) Michigan (2017) vs. (7) Texas A&M (2016) - Thursday 3/22 7:37 ET TBS
(4) Gonzaga (2017) vs. (9) Florida State (2011) - Thursday 3/22 10:07 ET TBS

Midwest Region (Omaha)
(1) Kansas (2017) vs. (5) Clemson (1997) - Friday 3/23 7:07 ET CBS
(2) Duke (2016) vs. (11) Syracuse (2016) - Friday 3/23 9:37 ET CBS

East Region (Boston)
(1) Villanova (2016) vs. (5) West Virginia (2017) - Friday 3/23 7:37 ET TBS
(2) Purdue (2017) vs. (3) Texas Tech (2005) - Friday 3/23 10:07 ET TBS

If you're like me -- and you better pray to Zeus that you're not –- you not only love the NCAA Tournament, but you are fascinated with the history and statistical minutiae associated with the tournament.  Like I've done the last couple years, I'm going to drop knowledge bombs on your mind.  Here are 13 -- I made it 13 so I could put UVa's loss at unlucky #13 -- fun facts about this year's NCAA tournament.

13.  The unthinkable happened for the first time ever.  A 16-seed beat a 1-seed, and it wasn't even close.  Virginia came into the NCAA Tournament as the number one overall seed, and UMBC -- that stands for University of Maryland - Baltimore County -- was, the worst 16-seed, meaning the worst team in the tournament, according to the Selection Committee.  No one told the Retrievers, as they charged to a 74-54 win Friday night, becoming the first of 136 16-seeds since the Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 to beat a 1-seed.  UMBC -- a team that lost to Albany by 44 points in January -- scored 53 points in the second half, which is more points than 15 of Virginia's opponents scored in an entire game this year.

For Virginia fans, they now have to suffer quietly knowing that this upset is actually worse than the previous "biggest upset in college basketball history" -- #1 Virginia's loss to NAIA Chaminade on December 23, 1982.  At least Ralph Sampson can sleep easy tonight knowing that he's no longer a part of the worst upset in NCAA history.

12.  In the South Region, none of the top four seeds advanced to the Sweet 16.  This is the first time since the Tournament began seeding in 1979 that this has happened.

11.  Everybody's favorite Cinderella, Loyola (IL) -- which is still the only school in the State of Illinois to win an NCAA Division 1 men's basketball championship -- is the first Chicago team to go to the Sweet 16 since DePaul in 1987.  They will play Nevada Thursday evening for the chance to go to the Elite Eight, and you should not count them out to go to the Final Four.  Since the Tournament began expanded to 32 teams in 1975, here are the Chicago teams that have gone to the Sweet 16 or beyond (not counting this year's Loyola team):
-DePaul
--Final Four: 1979
--Elite 8:  1978
--Sweet 16:  1976, 1984, 1986, 1987
-Loyola (IL)
--Sweet 16:  1985

10.  Defending champ North Carolina lost in the Round of 32, getting blown out by 21 to 7-seed Texas A&M.  It was the second year in a row that the defending champ lost in the Round of 32, and it was the worst loss by a defending champ in the NCAA Tournament since Arizona lost by 25 to Utah in the 1998 Elite Eight.  However, it was the 4th time in a row UNC failed to advance to the Sweet 16 the year after winning the national title.  Apparently, this isn't that uncommon.  Here is a breakdown of defending champions who have lost before the Sweet 16 or failed to make the NCAA Tournament, since seeding began in 1979:
2018:  North Carolina (lost in Round of 32)
2017:  Villanova (lost in Round of 32)
2015:  UConn (did not make the NCAA Tournament)
2013:  Kentucky (did not make the NCAA Tournament)
2012:  UConn (lost in Round of 64)
2010:  North Carolina (did not make the NCAA Tournament)
2008:  Florida (did not make the NCAA Tournament)
2006:  North Carolina (lost in Round of 32)
2005:  UConn (lost in Round of 32)
2000:  UConn (did not make the NCAA Tournament)
1996:  UCLA (lost in Round of 64)
1994:  North Carolina (lost in Round of 32)
1993:  Duke (lost in Round of 32)
1990:  Michigan (lost in Round of 32)
1989:  Kansas (did not make the NCAA Tournament)
1988:  Indiana (lost in Round of 64)
1987:  Louisville (did not make the NCAA Tournament)
1986:  Villanova (lost in Round of 32)
1984:  NC State (did not make the NCAA Tournament)
1982:  Indiana (lost in Round of 32)
1981:  Louisville (lost in Round of 32)
1980:  Michigan State (did not make the NCAA Tournament)

9.  There is no region in which all top four seeds advanced to the Sweet 16.  I would have thought this was rare, but apparently, I am wrong. Since seeding began in 1979, that has now happened 22 times:  1980, 1981, 1984, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1990, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2018.

8.  For only the 5th time since the Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, no 12-seed upset a 5-seed.  However, 6 double-digit seeds won their first round games, which is about average.  In the 34 years since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there have been 207 double-digit seeds that have won their first round games, which is an average of 6.09 per year.  

Here is a year-by-year list of every double-digit seed that has won its first round since 1985:
2018:  6 (#10 Butler, #11 Loyola (IL), Syracuse, #13 Buffalo, Marshall, #16 UMBC)
2017:  5 (#10 Wichita State, #11 Rhode Island, USC, Xavier, #12 Middle Tennessee State)
2016:  10 (#10 Syracuse, VCU, #11 Gonzaga, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, #12 Little Rock, Yale, #13 Hawaii, #14 Stephen F. Austin, #15 Middle Tennessee State)
2015:  5 (#10 Ohio State, #11 Dayton, UCLA, #14 UAB, Georgia State)
2014:  6 (#10 Stanford, #11 Dayton, Tennessee, #12 Harvard, North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin)
2013:  8 (#10 Iowa State, #11 Minnesota, #12 California, Mississippi, Oregon, #13 LaSalle, #14 Harvard, #15 Florida Gulf Coast)
2012:  9 (#10 Purdue, Xavier, #11 Colorado, North Carolina State, #12 South Florida, VCU, #13 Ohio, #15 Lehigh, Norfolk State)
2011:  6 (#10, Florida State, #11 Gonzaga, Marquette, VCU, #12 Richmond, #13 Morehead State)
2010:   8 (#10 Georgia Tech, Missouri, St. Mary's, #11 Old Dominion, Washington, #12 Cornell, #13 Murray State, #14 Ohio)
2009:  8 (#10 Maryland, Michigan, USC, #11 Dayton, #12 Arizona, Western Kentucky, Wisconsin, #13 Cleveland State)
2008:  6 (#10 Davidson, #11 Kansas State, #12 Villanova, Western Kentucky, #13 San Diego, Siena)
2007:  2 (#11 Winthrop, VCU)
2006:  8 (#10 Alabama, NC State, #11 George Mason, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, #12 Montana, Texas A&M, #13 Bradley, #14 Northwestern State)
2005:  5 (#10 NC State, #11 UAB, #12 Wisconsin-Milwaukee, #13 Vermont, #14 Bucknell)
2004:  3 (#10 Nevada, #12 Manhattan, Pacific,)
2003:  5 (#10 Arizona State, Auburn, #11 Central Michigan, #12 Butler, #13 Tulsa)
2002:  7 (#10 Kent State, #11 Southern Illinois, Wyoming, #12 Creighton, Missouri, Tulsa, #13 UNC-Wilmington)
2001:  9 (#10 Butler, Georgetown, #11 Georgia State, Temple, #12 Gonzaga, Utah State, #13 Indiana State, Kent State, #15 Hampton)
2000:  3 (#10 Gonzaga, Seton Hall, #11 Pepperdine)
1999:  8 (#10 Creighton, Gonzaga, Miami (OH), Purdue, #12 Detroit, Southwest Missouri State, #13 Oklahoma, #14 Weber State)
1998:  8 (#10 Detroit, West Virginia, St. Louis, #11 Washington, Western Michigan, #12 Florida State, #13 Valparaiso, #14 Richmond)
1997:  5 (#10 Providence, Texas, #12 Charleston, #14 Tennessee-Chattanooga, #15 Coppin State)
1996:  6 (#10 Santa Clara, Texas, #11 Boston College, #12 Arkansas, Drexel, #13 Princeton)
1995:  6 (#10 Stanford, #11 Texas, #12 Miami (OH), #13 Manhattan, #14 Old Dominion, Weber State)
1994:  5 (#10 George Washington, Maryland, #11 Pennsylvania, #12 Tulsa, Wisconsin-Green Bay)
1993:  4 (#11 Tulane, #12 George Washington, #13 Southern, #15 Santa Clara)
1992:  5 (#10 Iowa State, Tulane, #12 New Mexico State, #13 Southwest Louisiana, #14 East Tennessee State)
1991:  8 (#10 BYU, Temple, #11 Connecticut, Creighton, #12 Eastern Michigan, #13 Penn State, #14 Xavier, #15 Richmond)
1990:  5 (#10 Texas, #11 Loyola Marymount, #12 Ball State, Dayton, #14 Northern Iowa)
1989:  8 (#10 Colorado State, #11 Evansville, Minnesota, South Alabama, Texas, #12 DePaul, #13 Middle Tennessee State, #14 Siena)
1988:  4 (#10 Loyola Marymount, #11 Rhode Island, #13 Richmond, #14 Murray State)
1987:  6 (#10 LSU, Western Kentucky, #12 Wyoming, #13 Southwest Missouri State, Xavier, #14 Austin Peay)
1986:  5 (#10 Villanova, #11 LSU, #12 DePaul, #14 Arkansas-Little Rock, Cleveland State)
1985:  5 (#11 Auburn, Boston College, UTEP, #12 Kentucky, #13 Navy)

7.  In the South Region, 1-seed Virginia and 2-seed Cincinnati failed to advance to the Sweet 16, while in the West Region, 1-seed Xavier and 2-seed North Carolina also failed to advance to the Sweet 16.  This is only the second time since seeding began in 1979 that the top two seeds in two regions failed to advance to the Sweet 16.  Here are the times that has happened (with the year, region, and 1- and 2-seeds, respectively):
2018 (South Region - Virginia, Cincinnati)
2018 (West Region - Xavier, North Carolina)
2017 (East Region – Villanova, Duke)
2015 (East Region – Villanova, Virginia)
2004 (St. Louis Region – Kentucky, Gonzaga)
2000 (South Region – Stanford, Cincinnati)
2000 (West Region – Arizona, St. John's)
1992 (Midwest Region – Kansas, USC)
1990 (Midwest Region – Oklahoma, Purdue)
1981 (Mideast Region – DePaul, Kentucky)
1980 (West Region – DePaul, Oregon State)
1979 (East Region – North Carolina, Duke)

Notably, only one national champion has come out of those regions (Indiana in 1981).

6.  All three Pac-12 teams lost in the First Four or the Round of 64.  Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, here are the major conferences –- which I define as the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 8/Big 12, Pac-10/Pac-12, and the Big East (until 2013) –- that only advanced one team (or no team) to the Sweet 16:
-ACC:  5 times (one team in 2007-2008, 2010, 2014, and 2017)
-Big East (until 2013):  5 times (no team in 1986 and 1993, and one team in 1988, 1992, and 2001)
-Big 8/Big 12:  12 times (no team in 1990 and 1998, and one team in 1985-1986, 1992, 1996-1997, 1999, 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2013)
-Big Ten:  7 times (no team in 1995-1996 and 2006, and one team in 1985, 1997, 2004, and 2007)
-Pac-10/Pac-12:  21 times (no team in 1985-1987, 1993, 1999, 2004, 2012, and 2018, and one team in 1988-1992, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2009-2011, and 2016)
-SEC:  13 times (no team in 1988 and 2009, and one team in 1990-1992, 1997-1998, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2013, and 2015-2016)

5.  As discussed above, Virginia, the top seed in the South Region, fell to 16-seed Wisconsin on Friday, but Xavier, the top seed in the West Region, also lost (Sunday to Florida State), making it the 7th time in the last 9 years and 24rd time overall that at least one 1-seed lost in the Round of 32 or before -- but only the 4th time two 1-seeds have failed to advance to the Sweet 16.  Here are the 1-seeds that have lost in the Round of 32 since the tournament began seeding in 1979:
2018:  Virginia, Xavier
2017:  Villanova
2015:  Villanova
2014:  Wichita State
2013:  Gonzaga
2011:  Pittsburgh
2010:  Kansas
2004:  Kentucky, Stanford
2002:  Cincinnati
2000:  Arizona, Stanford
1998:  Kansas
1996:  Purdue
1994:  North Carolina
1992:  Kansas
1990:  Oklahoma
1986:  St. John's
1985:  Michigan
1982:  DePaul
1981:  DePaul, Oregon State
1980:  DePaul
1979:  North Carolina

4.  Two 2-seeds –- UNC in the West and Cincinnati in the South -- lost in the Round of 32.  This marks the 35th time in the 40 years since seeding began in 1979 that all four 2-seeds failed to advance to the Sweet 16, and the 21st year since 1979 -- and fifth in a row -- that two or more 2-seeds failed to make the Sweet 16 (1981, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1990, 1993, 1997, 1999-2001, 2003-2006, 2008, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018).  In three of those years, three 2-seeds failed to make the Sweet 16 (1990, 1999, 2000).  1982, 1989, 1995, 1996, and 2009 are the only years in which all four 2-seeds advanced to the Sweet 16.

3.  The average seed number for Sweet 16 teams this year is 5.3125, making this the highest average seed number in the Sweet 16 since 2000 and only the 4th time since seeding began in 1979 that the average seed number has been that high.  It extremely high if you consider that, if the seeding played out as it should (i.e., all teams seeded 1-4 advancing to the Sweet 16, which has never happened), the average seed number would be 2.5. Here is the average seed of Sweet 16 teams since 1979:
2018: 5.3125
2017: 4.0625
2016: 4.125
2015: 4.375
2014: 4.9375
2013: 5.0625
2012: 4.5625
2011: 5
2010: 5
2009: 3.0625
2008: 4.375
2007: 3.1875
2006: 4.4375
2005: 4.5
2004: 4.5625
2003: 4.1875
2002: 4.6875
2001: 4.5625
2000: 5.3125
1999: 5.5
1998: 4.75
1997: 4.8125
1996: 3.6875
1995: 3.1875
1994: 4.25
1993: 4.0625
1992: 4.1875
1991: 4
1990: 5.5
1989: 3.125
1988: 4.3125
1987: 4.25
1986: 5.5625
1985: 4.875
1984: 3.8125
1983: 3.5
1982: 3.1875
1981: 4.5625
1980: 4.125
1979: 3.8125

2.  We have three mid-majors in the Sweet 16 -- Gonzaga, Loyola (IL), and Nevada -- for the first time since 2013. (I consider schools in conferences other than the ACC, Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC to be mid-majors, even if a school is now in one of those conferences, so, for instance, Butler and Xavier were mid-majors before joining the Big East a couple years ago, but are no longer mid-majors. It's not a perfect science. Deal with it.)  24 mid-majors have advanced to the Final Four since 1979.  Here is a year-by-year breakdown of the number of mid-major teams that made it to the Sweet 16 since 1979:
2018: 3 (Gonzaga, Loyola (IL), Nevada)
2017: 1 (Gonzaga*)
2016: 1 (Gonzaga)
2015: 2 (Gonzaga, Wichita State)
2014: 2 (Dayton, San Diego State)
2013: 3 (Florida Gulf Coast, LaSalle, Wichita State*)
2012: 2 (Ohio, Xavier)
2011: 5 (Butler*, BYU, Richmond, San Diego State, VCU*)
2010: 5 (Butler*, Cornell, Northern Iowa, St. Mary's, Xavier)
2009: 3 (Gonzaga, Memphis, Xavier)
2008: 4 (Davidson, Memphis*, Western Kentucky, Xavier)
2007: 4 (Butler, Memphis, Southern Illinois, UNLV)
2006: 5 (Bradley, George Mason*, Gonzaga, Memphis, Wichita State)
2005: 2 (Utah, UW-Milwaukee)
2004: 4 (Nevada, St. Joseph's, UAB, Xavier)
2003: 2 (Butler, Marquette*)
2002: 2 (Kent State, Southern Illinois)
2001: 2 (Cincinnati, Gonzaga, Temple)
2000: 2 (Gonzaga, Tulsa)
1999: 4 (Gonzaga, Miami (OH), SW Missouri State, Temple)
1998: 3 (Rhode Island, Utah*, Valparaiso)
1997: 3 (St. Joseph's, Utah, UT-Chattanooga)
1996: 3 (Cincinnati, Massachusetts*, Utah)
1995: 3 (Massachusetts, Memphis, Tulsa)
1994: 2 (Marquette, Tulsa)
1993: 4 (Cincinnati, George Washington, Temple, Western Kentucky)
1992: 5 (Cincinnati*, Memphis State, Massachusetts, New Mexico State, UTEP)
1991: 4 (Eastern Michigan, Temple, UNLV*, Utah)
1990: 4 (Ball State, Loyola Marymount, UNLV**, Xavier)
1989: 2 (Louisville, UNLV)
1988: 4 (Louisville, Rhode Island, Richmond, Temple)
1987: 3 (DePaul, UNLV*, Wyoming)
1986: 5 (Cleveland State, DePaul, Louisville**, Navy, UNLV)
1985: 3 (Louisiana Tech, Loyola (IL), Memphis State*)
1984: 6 (Dayton, DePaul, Houston*, Louisville, Memphis State, UNLV)
1983: 4 (Houston*, Louisville, Memphis State, Utah)
1982: 6 (Fresno State, Houston*, Idaho, Louisville*, Memphis State, UAB)
1981: 5 (BYU, St. Joseph's, UAB, Utah, Wichita State)
1980: 2 (Lamar, Louisville**)
1979: 8 (DePaul*, Indiana State*, Louisville, Marquette, Penn*, Rutgers, San Francisco, Toledo)
*Advanced to Final Four
**Won NCAA title

1.  For the first time since 2014, there are 4 teams seeded 8 or lower that advanced to the Sweet 16.  Twelve teams seeded 8 or higher have advanced to the Final Four (Villanova in 1985 was the only national champion).  Here is a year-by-year breakdown of the number of teams seeded #8 or lower that made it to the Sweet 16 since 1979:
2018: 4 (#9 Florida State, #9 Kansas State, #11 Loyola (IL), #11 Syracuse)
2017: 2 (#8 Wisconsin, #11 Xavier)
2016: 2 (#10 Syracuse*, #11 Gonzaga)
2015: 2 (#8 NC State, #11 UCLA)
2014: 4 (#8 Kentucky*, #10 Stanford, #11 Dayton, #11 Tennessee)
2013: 4 (#9 Wichita State*, #12 Oregon, #13 LaSalle, and #15 Florida Gulf Coast)
2012: 3 (#10 Xavier, #11 NC State, and #13 Ohio)
2011: 5 (#8 Butler*, #10 Florida State, #11 Marquette, #11 VCU*, and #12 Richmond)
2010: 4 (#9 Northern Iowa, #10 St. Mary's, #11 Washington, #12 Cornell)
2009: 1 (#12 Arizona)
2008: 3 (#10 Davidson, #12 Villanova, #12 Western Kentucky)
2007: 0
2006: 2 (#11 George Mason*, #13 Bradley)
2005: 2 (#10 North Carolina State, #12 UW-Milwaukee)
2004: 3 (#8 Alabama, #9 UAB, #10 Nevada)
2003: 2 (#10 Auburn, #12 Butler)
2002: 4 (#8 UCLA, #10 Kent State, #11 Southern Illinois, #12 Missouri)
2001: 3 (#10 Georgetown, #11 Temple, #12 Gonzaga)
2000: 4 (#8 North Carolina*, #8 Wisconsin*, #10 Seton Hall, #10 Gonzaga)
1999: 5 (#10 Gonzaga, #10 Miami (OH), #10 Purdue, #12 Southwest Missouri State, #13 Oklahoma)
1998: 4 (#8 Rhode Island, #10 West Virginia, #11 Washington, #13 Valparaiso)
1997: 3 (#10 Texas, #10 Providence, #14 UT-Chattanooga)
1996: 2 (#8 Georgia, #12 Arkansas)
1995: 0
1994: 2 (#9 Boston College, #10 Maryland, #12 Tulsa)
1993: 1 (#12 George Washington)
1992: 2 (#9 UTEP, #12 New Mexico State)
1991: 3 (#10 Temple, #11 Connecticut, #12 Eastern Michigan)
1990: 4 (#8 North Carolina, #10 Texas, #11 Loyola Marymount, #12 Ball State)
1989: 1 (#11 Minnesota)
1988: 2 (#11 Rhode Island, #13 Richmond)
1987: 2 (#10 LSU, #12 Wyoming)
1986: 4 (#8 Auburn, #11 LSU*, #12 DePaul, #14 Cleveland State)
1985: 4 (#8 Villanova**, #11 Auburn, #11 Boston College, #12 Kentucky)
1984: 1 (#10 Dayton)
1983: 1 (#10 Utah)
1982: 1 (#8 Boston College)
1981: 2 (#8 Kansas State, #9 St. Joseph's)
1980: 2 (#8 UCLA*, #10 Lamar)
1979: 2 (#9 Penn*, #10 St. John's)
*Advanced to Final Four
**Won NCAA title

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