Tuesday Top Ten: NCAA Tournament Edition

This year's NCAA Tournament brackets have been announced, and I think we are once again looking at a wide-open and exciting NCAA Tournament.  I have already filled out well over 150 brackets, and they're all horrible.  Here are a couple initial random thoughts:

• Like last year, I think there are 9 teams that could legitimately win it all and about 15-18 teams that could legitimately make it to the Final Four, but at the same time, I wouldn't be shocked if all of them lost by the Sweet 16.
• I think Villanova has the easiest path to the Final Four of any 1-seed, and I think Xavier and Virginia are tied for the hardest path of any of the 1-seeds.
• I would not be surprised if all of the 12-seeds beat all of the 5-seeds.  Or none.
• There's only one first round in-state matchup.  In the East, 3-seed Texas Tech and 14-seed Stephen F. Austin face off in Dallas, no less.  Don't sleep on those Lumberjacks.
• That first round 7/10 matchup in the Midwest between Rhode Island and Oklahoma should be a fun one.  Same with the 7/10 game in the West between Texas A&M and Providence.
• There are a also few potentially juicy matchups in the Round of 32 for rivalry reasons or otherwise:
• In the South:  4-seed Arizona and 5-seed Kentucky could meet in what would be a hell of a Wildcat-on-Wildcat game
• In the West:  (1) 4-seed Gonzaga against 5-seed Ohio State; (2) 3-seed Michigan against 11-seed San Diego State, in a matchup of Steve Fisher's former programs
• In the East:  (1) 5-seed West Virginia against in-state foe 13-seed Marshall; (2) 2-seed Purdue against in-state rival 10-seed Butler, in a chance for the Bulldogs to avenge an early-season loss to the Boilermakers in the Crossroads Classic.
• In the Midwest:  2-seed Duke and all its talent against 10-seed Oklahoma and Trae Young
• Fuck Purdue
• Fuck Kentucky

Anyway, as I do every year, here are a couple lists of five teams each in a few categories that you should consider when filling out your brackets.  Expect there to be some contradictions, since that's the nature of predicting the NCAA Tournament.  Teams are in alphabetical order.  So you don't think I'm entirely full of shit (or perhaps to prove that I am), I'll put in parentheses what I correctly predicted last year.

Teams with the best shot at winning it all (last year, I had North Carolina on this list):

1.  Duke (2-seed Midwest).  Grayson Allen and the four freshman starting around him have the talent to beat anyone.  They were the preseason #1, but have stumbled a few times, losing games 7 games, including a couple they had no business losing (St. John's?!).  That said, Coach K is Coach K, and March has been his mistress on many occasion when he had less talent than this team has.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  9-5

2.  Gonzaga (4-seed West).  The Zags got over the hump last year, making it to the national title game before losing a hard-fought game to UNC.  They are underseeded at a 4-seed, in my opinion.  They are just as deep as they were last year, and they have what I think is a pretty winnable region -- and they'll be playing in Boise and LA, which are both a hell of a lot closer to Spokane than they are to Cincinnati, Chapel Hill, Ann Arbor, or Columbus.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  4-3

3.  Michigan State (3-seed Midwest).  The Spartans are as talented as any team in the field, and they have a good mix of talented underclassmen and solid upperclassmen.  They only lost to Duke, Michigan (twice), and Ohio State.  Izzo knows how to win in March, and MSU seems to be the sexy pick to win it all among commentators.  The only knock is that the Big Ten wasn't as strong this year as it has been in years past, so MSU doesn't have the quality wins as some of the other contenders.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  2-4

4.  Villanova (1-seed East).  For the second year in a row, the Wildcats are the top seed in the East.  Two years ago, the Wildcats won the national title.  Last year, they were knocked out in the Round of 32 by 8-seed Wisconsin.  They still have Phil Booth, Mikal Bridges, and Jalen Brunson from their NCAA championship team (among others), and I think they have the easiest path to the Final Four.  Then again, that's what I thought last year.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  12-3

5.  Virginia (1-seed South).  A lot of people are writing the Cavaliers off because they will likely have to face Kentucky or Arizona in the Sweet 16, and then possibly Cincinnati or Tennessee in the Elite 8.  Let's not forget that the Cavs went 31-2, losing only at West Virginia by 7 and in OT by one, dropping only one game in arguably the toughest conference in the land.  Not a single team score more than 68 points on Virginia this year, and they held 13 teams to 50 and under.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  14-2

Final Four sleepers (teams seeded 4 or higher) (last year, I did not have South Carolina on this list, but no one did):

1.  Arizona (4-seed South).  Is this the year Sean Miller gets over the hump?  Or will all the FBI/Deandre Ayton stuff poison the team?  We'll see.  Ayton is a special player, and may very well be able to pull a Carmelo Anthony and put his team on his back all the way to the Final Four (or beyond).  The South Region is tough, but if Arizona gets past Kentucky (or Davidson) in the second round, watch out.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  6-3

2.  Butler (10-seed East).  Butler is battle-tested in the Big East, and the bottom half of the East Region is not particularly strong.  Add in a potential payback matchup with Purdue in the second round, and the Bulldogs could be in the Sweet 16 before you know it.  If they can beat Purdue, they can certainly beat whoever comes out of the Texas Tech/SFA/Florida/St. Bonaventure/UCLA quadrant.  That would just leave Villanova, in all likelihood -- a team that Butler has, in fact, beaten this year.  Senior forward Kelan Martin is a beast.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  5-10

3.  Gonzaga (4-seed West).  See above.

4.  Kentucky (5-seed South).  You will undoubtedly hear about how much talent Kentucky has.  By all accounts, Kentucky had the #2 recruiting class last year.  But the Baby 'Cats have 10 losses.  In the prior 7 NCAA Tournaments in the John Calipari era in Lexington, Kentucky has gone to four Final Fours, and two of those teams had 8 or more losses going into the tournament.  It won't be easy, as they will likely have to go through Arizona, Virginia, and either Cincinnati or Tennessee to get to San Antonio, but with the amount of talent on the team, it pains me to say that Kentucky can't be counted out.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  8-9

5.  West Virginia (5-seed East).  Huggy Bear's Mountaineers are always a disruptive force on the defensive end, with their famed "Press Virginia."  A lot of teams just don't know how to handle the press.  A winnable second round game against Wichita State would pit WVU against Villanova in the Sweet 16.  The Mountaineers handed Virginia one of its only two losses, so they are capable of beating anyone.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  10-8

Teams seeded 4 or lower who may not make it to the second weekend (last year, I correctly put Florida State and Villanova on this list):

1.  Arizona (4-seed South).  See comments about Kentucky above.

2.  Auburn (4-seed Midwest).  In early February, the Tigers were looking like they might be challenging for a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament, ranked #8 and sitting at 21-3 overall.  They still got the top seed in the SEC Tournament before an unceremonious 18-point loss to rival Alabama in the quarterfinals, which gave Auburn four losses in their last six games.  Add into that the fact that Auburn has dealt with some injuries, hasn't been to the Big Dance in 15 years, and will be playing in San Diego, and it may spell a short stay.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  5-5

3.  Kansas (1-seed Midwest).  Because it's Kansas.  During Bill Self's 15-year tenure as head coach, the Jayhawks have never been seeded worse than a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and yet they have failed to make it to the second weekend five times.  The last two years were "on" years, as the Jayhawks made it to the Elite Eight each year.  Will this be an "off" year?  Assuming they get past Penn in the first round -- which they should, even if the Quakers are more of a 14- or 15-seed than a 16-seed -- in the second round, they will face either Seton Hall or NC State, both of which are capable of upsetting the Jayhawks, even in Wichita.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  17-3

4.  Purdue (2-seed East).  The Boilermakers have a long and storied history . . . of underachieving in March.  Check this stat:  Purdue has been a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament 11 times since seeding began in 1979, Purdue has failed to advance to the Sweet 16 six of those times.  Last year, Purdue made it to the second weekend for the first time since 2010. Yes, the Boilermakers have Isaac Haas and the Edwardses (no relation), but they haven't played a particularly tough schedule.  Thanks to an uneven Big Ten schedule, they only played Michigan State and Ohio State once each, losing both. I expect they will get past Cal State Fullerton in the first round, but either Butler or Arkansas can beat the Boilers in the second round.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  5-4

5.  Xavier (1-seed West).  The Musketeers are a 1-seed for the first time in school history, a year removed from going to the Elite Eight as an 11-seed (where they lost to Gonzaga).  In the second round, they will get either (1) a wild card Missouri team, who could give anyone a challenge if Michael Porter, Jr. is healthy or (2) Florida State team that will be looking to avenge last year's second round loss to Xavier.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  9-5

Teams seeded 12 or higher with the best chance of pulling an upset in the first round (last year, I correctly put Middle Tennessee State -- the only team seeded 12 or higher that won a game -- on this list):

1.  Charleston (13-seed Midwest).  The Cougars dominated the Colonial over the last month and a half, winning 14 of their last 15 games.  They have a great transition offense, and their first-round opponent, Auburn, doesn't have a great transition defense.  Also, there are the concerns about Auburn I mentioned above.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  0-2

2.  Davidson (12-seed South).  The Wildcats could give the Kentucky Wildcats a run for their money.  Peyton Aldridge is a 6'8" forward who can kill you from inside or outside.  Since the end of January, Davidson has gone 11-2, losing only to fellow NCAA Tournament teams Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure (and beating them as well).

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  4-6

3.  New Mexico State (12-seed Midwest).  The Aggies are a popular 12-5 pick.  They are 28-5 on the year, and they marched to their 6th WAC title in the last 7 years.  This is the best team they've had in that stretch.  Texas Southern transfer Zach Lofton is averaging nearly 20 points a game, and the Aggies have great perimeter defense and turn teams over.  They have beaten Davidson and Miami on neutral courts this year, so it's not out of the question that Clemson -- a team that hasn't been to the Big Dance in 7 years and whose coach has never won an NCAA Tournament game -- will fall victim too.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  2-0

4.  Penn (16-seed Midwest).  Because a 16-seed is one day going to beat a 1-seed, and presumably that 1-seed will be Kansas.  "Why not us?  Why not now?"  That should be the mantra of the Quakers.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  0-1

5.  South Dakota State (12-seed West).  The Jackrabbits have been the pearl of the Summit League, winning the last three conference titles and 5 of the last 7.  They have come close to a first round upset a couple times -- losing to Baylor by 8 as a 14-seed in 2012 and losing to Maryland by 5 as a 12-seed in 2016.  This year's squad is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the tournament, and boasts a true superstar in Mike Daum.  They have lost once since December 15.  On the other hand, their opponent, Ohio State, has struggled over the last month, losing 3 of their last 5 games.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  1-2