Thursday, March 08, 2018

Updated Championship Week Predictions

Today is when things really heat up.  There are 56 games today -- including 42 quarterfinal games -- spanning about 14 hours.  The first games tipped off at Noon Eastern, and the last games are scheduled to tip off at 11:30 p.m. Eastern.  Hearts will, in fact, be broken today.  But before that, here's everything that happened yesterday in Championship Week.  It was not a very good day for a lot of bubble teams:
  • The only bid clinched yesterday was in the Patriot League, where 1-seed Bucknell spanked 2-seed Colgate, 83-54, to clinch the Bison's 8th NCAA Tournament berth and second in a row.
  • In the first half of the MEAC quarterfinals, top seed Hampton held off 9-seed Florida A&M, 75-71, to advance to the semis, while 7-seed Morgan State upset 2-seed Bethune-Cookman, 78-77.
  • In the second round of the ACC, 9-seed Louisville took down 8-seed Florida State in a battle between two bubble teams (although Louisville needed the win a lot more than FSU).  5-seed NC State was upset by 12-seed Boston College.  Like Florida State, NC State should still be in the Big Dance, but this loss has to make Wolfpack fans uneasy.  10-seed Notre Dame battled back from a 21-point second-half deficit to beat 7-seed Virginia Tech, 71-65, and keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive for at least one more day.  6-seed North Carolina stomped 11-seed Syracuse, putting the Orange's NCAA Tournament chances at bay.
  • In the first round of the Big 12, in what was potentially a knockout game, 8-seed Oklahoma State topped 9-seed Oklahoma, 71-60, in the basketball version of Bedlam.  7-seed Texas held on to beat 10-seed Iowa State.
  • In the first round of the Big East, it was Chris Mullin against Patrick Ewing, as both Hall of Famers try to restore glory to their alma maters.  Mullins's 9-seed Red Storm came out on top, beating Ewing's 8-seed Hoyas, 88-77.  7-seed Marquette squeaked by 10-seed DePaul, 72-69.  The Golden Eagles will likely have to beat 2-seed Villanova today to secure a ticket to the Big Dance.
  • In the first round of the Pac-12, 9-seed Arizona State lost by 12 to 8-seed Colorado, severely impacting the Sun Devils' NCAA Tournament hopes.  Does the 9-seed in arguably the worst major conference who can't win an opening round conference tournament game deserve a spot in the field of 68?  Time will tell.  5-seed Stanford beat rival 12-seed Cal to advance to the quarterfinals, 7-seed Washington lost (again) to 10-seed Oregon State (likely knocking the Huskies out of the Big Dance), and 6-seed Oregon beat 11-seed Washington State.
  • In the first round of the SEC, 11-seed South Carolina and 12-seed Georgia advanced to the second round.
  • In the first round of the A-10, 11-seed George Washington and 13-seed UMass advanced to the quarterfinals.
  • In the first round of Conference USA, 5-seed UTSA, 6-seed UAB, 9-seed Southern Miss, and 10-seed Louisiana Tech advanced to the quarters.
  • In the first round of the Mountain West, 6-seed Wyoming, 7-seed Utah State, and 8-seed UNLV advanced to the quarterfinals.
  • In the first round of the Southland, 5-seed New Orleans and 7-seed Central Arkansas advanced to the second round, which is the Southland's equivalent of the quarterfinals.
  • In the first round of the Sun Belt, 5-seed Appalachian State, 6-seed Troy, 7-seed Louisiana Monroe, 9-seed Texas State advanced to the quarterfinals.
  • Three more tournaments start today -- leaving the Ivy League Tournament as the only tournament that hasn't yet started or finished -- and 15 conference tournaments have games today.  No more automatic bids will be up for grabs until Saturday.
  • Bubble teams that won yesterday:  Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, Texas
  • Bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Arizona State, Florida State, NC State, Oklahoma, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Washington
Here are the tournaments starting today, the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments.

Tournaments starting today
-AAC
-Big West
-WAC

Tournaments with games today
-AAC
-ACC
-Atlantic 10
-Big 12
-Big East
-Big Sky
-Big West
-Conference USA
-MAC
-MEAC
-Mountain West
-Pac-12
-SEC
-Southland
-WAC

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern)
None

Already clinched automatic berths (I will add in parentheses the NCAA tournament appearances for each school, including the bid just clinched, and for conferences whose tournaments have not yet ended, I'll list the date of the championship game)
-AAC (March 11)
-ACC (March 10)
-America East (March 10)
-Atlantic 10 (March 11)
-Atlantic Sun:  Lipscomb (1)
-Big 12 (March 10)
-Big East (March 10)
-Big Sky (March 10)
-Big South:  Radford (3)
-Big Ten:  Michigan (28)
-Big West (March 10)
-Colonial:  Charleston (5)
-Conference USA (March 10)
-Horizon:  Wright State (3)
-Ivy League (March 11)
-MAAC:  Iona (13)
-MAC (March 10)
-MEAC (March 10)
-Missouri Valley:  Loyola (IL) (6)
-Mountain West (March 10)
-Northeast Conference:  LIU-Brooklyn (7)
-Ohio Valley:  Murray State (16)
-Pac-12 (March 10)
-Patriot League:  Bucknell (8)
-SEC (March 11)
-Southern Conference:  UNC Greensboro (3)
-Southland (March 10)
-Summit:  South Dakota State (5)
-Sun Belt (March 11)
-SWAC (March 10)
-WAC (March 10)
-West Coast:  Gonzaga (21)

Because I am unhealthily obsessed with college basketball in March -- to the detriment of my marriage, children, friendships, work, sleep schedule, sanity, wallet, and loyalty to Xenu -- I have not only listed out every game and my predictions, but the date, time, and TV station(s) on which the game will appear, even if it's just local, regional, or online, to the extent that information is available.  Some conference tournament websites are better than others.  I want this to be as comprehensive as possible, so that you can always come here to figure out when any given team is playing.  I love you so much, you guys.  Don't you ever forget it.

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern; to the extent there are teams that have clinched seeds in tournament fields that are not completely set, I will put those in)

AAC (March 8-11; Orlando)
3/8 – First Round
12 p.m. (ESPNU) (8) UConn vs. (9) SMU.  Predicted winner:  SMU
2:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (5) Memphis vs. (12) South Florida.  Predicted winner:  Memphis
6 p.m. (ESPNU) (7) Temple vs. (10) Tulane.  Predicted winner:  Temple
8:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (6) UCF vs. (11) East Carolina.  Predicted winner:  UCF
3/9 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Cincinnati vs. (9).  Predicted winner:  Cincinnati
2:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (4) Tulsa vs. (5) Memphis.  Predicted winner:  Tulsa
6 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Wichita State vs. (7) Temple.  Predicted winner:  Wichita State
8:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (3) Houston vs. (6) UCF.  Predicted winner:  Houston
3/10 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) Cincinnati vs. (4) Tulsa.  Predicted winner:  Cincinnati
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (2) Wichita State vs. (3) Houston.  Predicted winner:  Wichita State
3/11 – Finals
3 p.m. (CBS) (1) Cincinnati vs. (2) Wichita State.  Predicted winner:  Wichita State

ACC (March 6-10; Brooklyn)
3/8 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Virginia vs. (9) Louisville.  Predicted winner:  Virginia
2 p.m. (ESPN) (4) Clemson vs. (12) Boston College.  Predicted winner:  Clemson
7 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Duke vs. (10) Notre Dame.  Predicted winner:  Duke
9 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Miami vs. (6) North Carolina.  Predicted winner:  North Carolina
3/9 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Virginia vs. (4) Clemson.  Predicted winner:  Virginia
9 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (2) Duke vs. (6) North Carolina.  Predicted winner:  North Carolina
3/10 – Finals
9 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Virginia vs. (6) North Carolina.  Predicted winner:  Virginia

America East (March 3, 6, 10; campus of higher seeds)
3/10 – Finals
11 a.m. (ESPN2) (2) UMBC at (1) Vermont.  Predicted winner:  Vermont

Atlantic 10 (March 7-11; Washington, DC)
3/8 – Second Round
12 p.m. (NBCSN) (8) VCU vs. (9) Dayton.  Predicted winner:  Dayton
2:30 p.m. (NBCSN) (5) George Mason vs. (13) UMass.  Predicted winner:  George Mason
6 p.m. (NBCSN) (7) St. Louis vs. (10) Duquesne.  Predicted winner:  St. Louis
8:30 p.m. (NBCSN) (6) Richmond vs. (11) George Washington.  Predicted winner:  Richmond
3/9 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (NBCSN) (1) Rhode Island vs. (9) Dayton.  Predicted winner:  Rhode Island
2:30 p.m. (NBCSN) (4) St. Joseph's vs. (5) George Mason.  Predicted winner:  George Mason
6 p.m. (NBCSN) (2) St. Bonaventure vs. (7) St. Louis.  Predicted winner:  St. Bonaventure
8:30 p.m. (NBCSN) (3) Davidson vs. (6) Richmond.  Predicted winner:  Davidson
3/10 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Rhode Island vs. (5) George Mason.  Predicted winner:  Rhode Island
3:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) St. Bonaventure vs. (3) Davidson.  Predicted winner:  St. Bonaventure
3/11 – Finals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) Rhode Island vs. (2) St. Bonaventure.  Predicted winner:  Rhode Island

Big 12 (March 7-10; Kansas City)
3/8 – Quarterfinals
12:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (4) Kansas State vs. (5) TCU.  Predicted winner:  TCU
2:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Kansas vs. (9) Oklahoma.  Predicted winner:  Kansas
7 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Texas Tech vs. (7) Texas.  Predicted winner:  Texas Tech
9 p.m. (ESPNU) (3) West Virginia vs. (6) Baylor.  Predicted winner:  West Virginia
3/9 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Kansas vs. (5) TCU.  Predicted winner:  Kansas
9 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (2) Texas Tech vs. (3) West Virginia.  Predicted winner:  West Virginia
3/10 – Finals
6 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Kansas vs. (3) West Virginia.  Predicted winner:  Kansas

Big East (March 7-10; New York)
3/8 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (FS1) (1) Xavier vs. (9) St. John's.  Predicted winner:  Xavier
2:30 p.m. (FS1) (4) Creighton vs. (5) Providence.  Predicted winner:  Creighton
7 p.m. (FS1) (2) Villanova vs. (7) Marquette.  Predicted winner:  Villanova
9:30 p.m. (FS1) (3) Seton Hall vs. (6) Butler.  Predicted winner:  Butler
3/9 – Semifinals
6:30 p.m. (FS1) (1) Xavier vs. (4) Providence.  Predicted winner:  Xavier
9:30 p.m. (FS1) (2) Villanova vs. (6) Butler.  Predicted winner:  Villanova
3/10 – Finals
5:30 p.m. (Fox) (1) Xavier vs. (2) Villanova.  Predicted winner:  Villanova

Big Sky (March 6, 8-10; Reno)
3/8 – Quarterfinals
3:05 p.m. (Pluto TV) (1) Montana vs. (8) North Dakota.  Predicted winner:  Montana
5:35 p.m. (Pluto TV) (4) Weber State vs. (5) Northern Colorado.  Predicted winner:  Northern Colorado
8:35 p.m. (Pluto TV) (2) Idaho vs. (10) Southern Utah.  Predicted winner:  Idaho
11:05 p.m. (Pluto TV) (3) Eastern Washington vs. (6) Portland State.  Predicted winner:  Portland State
3/9 – Semifinals
8:35 p.m. (Pluto TV) (1) Montana vs. (5) Northern Colorado.  Predicted winner:  Montana
11:05 p.m. (Pluto TV) (2) Idaho vs. (6) Portland State.  Predicted winner:  Idaho
3/10 – Finals
8:05 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Montana vs. (2) Idaho.  Predicted winner:  Montana

Big West (March 8-10; Anaheim)
3/8 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (Fox Sports West; Prime Ticket) (2) UC Santa Barbara vs. (7) Cal Poly.  Predicted winner:  UC Santa Barbara
5:30 p.m. (Fox Sports West; Prime Ticket) (3) UC Irvine vs. (6) Hawaii.  Predicted winner:  Hawaii
9 p.m. (Fox Sports West; Prime Ticket) (1) UC Davis vs. (8) UC Riverside.  Predicted winner:  UC Davis
11:30 p.m. (Fox Sports West; Prime Ticket) (4) Cal State Fullerton vs. (5) Long Beach State.  Predicted winner:  Cal State Fullerton
3/9 – Semifinals
9:30 p.m. (ESPN3/ESPNU – tape delayed) (1) UC Davis vs. (6) Hawaii.  Predicted winner:  UC Davis
11:59 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) UC Santa Barbara vs. (4) Cal State Fullerton.  Predicted winner:  UC Santa Barbara
3/10 – Finals
11:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) UC Davis vs. (2) UC Santa Barbara.  Predicted winner:  UC Santa Barbara

Conference USA (March 7-10; Frisco, TX)
3/8 – Quarterfinals
12:30 p.m. (ASN) (2) Old Dominion vs. (10) Louisiana Tech.  Predicted winner:  Old Dominion
3 p.m. (ASN) (3) Western Kentucky vs. (6) UAB.  Predicted winner:  Western Kentucky
8 p.m. (ASN) (1) Middle Tennessee State vs. (9) Southern Mississippi.  Predicted winner:  Middle Tennessee State
9:30 p.m. (ASN) (4) Marshall vs. (5) UTSA.  Predicted winner:  Marshall
3/9 – Semifinals
12:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Middle Tennessee State vs. (4) Marshall.  Predicted winner:  Middle Tennessee State
3 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Old Dominion vs. (3) Western Kentucky.  Predicted winner:  Western Kentucky
3/10 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Middle Tennessee State vs. (3) Western Kentucky.  Predicted winner:  Middle Tennessee State

Ivy League (March 10-11; Philadelphia)
3/10 – Semifinals
12:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Harvard vs. (4) Cornell.  Predicted winner:  Harvard
3 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Penn vs. (3) Yale.  Predicted winner:  Penn
3/11 – Finals
12 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Harvard vs. (2) Penn.  Predicted winner:  Penn

MAC (March 5, 8-10; first round at campus of higher seed and remaining rounds in Cleveland)
3/8 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) Buffalo vs. (8) Central Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Buffalo
2:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (4) Ball State vs. (5) Kent State.  Predicted winner:  Ball State
6:30 p.m. (ESPN3 ) (2) Toledo vs. (7) Miami.  Predicted winner:  Toledo
9 p.m. (ESPN3) (3) Eastern Michigan vs. (11) Akron.  Predicted winner:  Eastern Michigan
3/9 – Semifinals
6:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Buffalo vs. (4) Ball State.  Predicted winner:  Buffalo
9 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Toledo vs. (3) Eastern Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Toledo
3/10 – Finals
7 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Buffalo vs. (2) Toledo.  Predicted winner:  Buffalo

MEAC (March 5-10; Norfolk, VA)
Quarterfinals
3/8
6 p.m. (3) Savannah State vs. (6) North Carolina Central.  Predicted winner:  North Carolina Central
8 p.m. (4) North Carolina A&T vs. (5) Norfolk State.  Predicted winner:  North Carolina A&T
3/9 – Semifinals
6:00 p.m. (1) Hampton vs. (4) North Carolina A&T.  Predicted winner:  North Carolina A&T
8:00 p.m. (7) Morgan State vs. (6) North Carolina Central.  Predicted winner:  North Carolina Central
3/10 – Final
1:00 p.m. (ESPN2) (6) North Carolina Central vs. (4) North Carolina A&T.  Predicted winner:  North Carolina A&T

Mountain West (March 7-10; Las Vegas)
3/8 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Nevada vs. (8) UNLV.  Predicted winner:  Nevada
5:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (4) Fresno State vs. (5) San Diego State.  Predicted winner:  Fresno State
9 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Boise State vs. (7) Utah State.  Predicted winner:  Boise State
11:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (3) New Mexico vs. (6) Wyoming.  Predicted winner:  Wyoming
3/9 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Nevada vs. (4) Fresno State.  Predicted winner:  Nevada
11:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Boise State vs. (6) Wyoming.  Predicted winner:  Boise State
3/10 – Finals
6 p.m. (CBS) (1) Nevada vs. (2) Boise State.  Predicted winner:  Nevada

Pac-12 (March 7-10; Las Vegas)
3/8 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (1) Arizona vs. (8) Colorado.  Predicted winner:  Arizona
5:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (4) UCLA vs. (5) Stanford.  Predicted winner:  UCLA
9 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (2) USC vs. (10) Oregon State.  Predicted winner:  USC
11:30 p.m. (FS1) (3) Utah vs. (6) Oregon.  Predicted winner:  Oregon
3/9 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (1) Arizona vs. (4) UCLA.  Predicted winner:  UCLA
11:30 p.m. (FS1) (2) USC vs. (6) Oregon.  Predicted winner:  USC
3/10 – Finals
10 p.m. (FS1) (2) USC vs. (4) UCLA.  Predicted winner:  USC

SEC (March 7-11; St. Louis)
3/8 – Second Round
1 p.m. (SEC Network) (8) Texas A&M vs. (9) Alabama.  Predicted winner:  Texas A&M
3:30 p.m. (SEC Network) (5) Missouri vs. (12) Georgia.  Predicted winner:  Missouri
7 p.m. (SEC Network) (7) Mississippi State vs. (10) LSU.  Predicted winner:  LSU
9:30 p.m. (SEC Network) (6) Arkansas vs. (11) South Carolina.  Predicted winner:  Arkansas
3/9 – Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Auburn vs. (8) Texas A&M.  Predicted winner:  Auburn
3:30 p.m. (ESPN) (4) Kentucky vs. (5) Missouri.  Predicted winner:  Kentucky
7 p.m. (SEC Network) (2) Tennessee vs. (10) LSU.  Predicted winner:  Tennessee
9:30 p.m. (SEC Network) (3) Florida vs. (6) Arkansas.  Predicted winner:  Florida
3/10 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Auburn vs. (4) Kentucky.  Predicted winner:  Kentucky
3:30 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Tennessee vs. (3) Florida.  Predicted winner:  Florida
3/11 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Florida vs. (4) Kentucky.  Predicted winner:  Kentucky

Southland (March 7-10; Katy, TX)
3/8 – Second Round
6 p.m. (ESPN3) (4) Sam Houston State vs. (5) New Orleans.  Predicted winner:  Sam Houston State
8:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (3) Stephen F. Austin vs. (7) Central Arkansas.  Predicted winner:  Stephen F. Austin
3/9 – Semifinals
6 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) Southeastern Louisiana vs. (4) Sam Houston State.  Predicted winner:  Southeastern Louisiana
8:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) Nicholls State vs. (3) Stephen F. Austin.  Predicted winner:  Stephen F. Austin
3/10 – Finals
9:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Southeastern Louisiana vs. (3) Stephen F. Austin.  Predicted winner:  Stephen F. Austin

Sun Belt (March 7, 9-11; New Orleans)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
12:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) Louisiana-Lafayette vs. (9) Texas State.  Predicted winner:  Louisiana-Lafayette
3 p.m. (ESPN3) (4) Texas-Arlington vs. (5) Appalachian State.  Predicted winner:  Texas-Arlington
6 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) Georgia State vs. (7) Louisiana-Monroe.  Predicted winner:  Georgia State
8:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (3) Georgia Southern vs. (6) Troy.  Predicted winner:  Georgia Southern
3/10 – Semifinals
12:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) Louisiana-Lafayette vs. (4) Texas-Arlington.  Predicted winner:  Louisiana-Lafayette
3 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) Georgia State vs. (3) Georgia Southern.  Predicted winner:  Georgia State
3/11 – Finals
2 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Louisiana-Lafayette vs. (2) Georgia State.  Predicted winner:  Louisiana-Lafayette

SWAC (March 6, 9-10; quarterfinals at campus of higher seed, remaining games in Houston)
3/9 – Semifinals
3:30 p.m. (1) Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. (4) Southern.  Predicted winner:  Southern
9:30 p.m. (2) Prairie View A&M vs. (3) Texas Southern.  Predicted winner:  Texas Southern
3/10 – Finals
4 p.m. (TBD) (3) Texas Southern vs. (4) Southern.  Predicted winner:  Southern

WAC (March 8-10; Las Vegas)
3/8 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (ESPN3) (3) Grand Canyon vs. (6) UMKC.  Predicted winner:  Grand Canyon
5:20 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) Utah Valley vs. (7) Cal State Bakersfield.  Predicted winner:  Utah Valley
9 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) New Mexico State vs. (8) Chicago State.  Predicted winner:  New Mexico State
11:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (4) Seattle vs. (5) Texas-Rio Grande Valley.  Predicted winner:  Seattle
3/9 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) New Mexico State vs. (4) Seattle.  Predicted winner:  New Mexico State
11:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) Utah Valley vs. (3) Grand Canyon.  Predicted winner:  Grand Canyon
3/10 – Finals 
10 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) New Mexico State vs. (3) Grand Canyon.  Predicted winner:  New Mexico State

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