Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Talk about two insane games last night.  First, Rutgers stormed back from an 18-point halftime deficit at Penn State to take a two-point lead with 42 seconds left, only to have their hearts broken 14 seconds later when Nittany Lions guard Myles Dread knocked down what ended up being the game-winning three, giving Penn State a 65-64 win and, more importantly, allowing them to keep pace with Michigan State in the race for the 2-seed.  The second game was just as exciting.  Minnesota looked like it was on its way to a huge victory over first-place Maryland in the Barn, going up by as much as 17 in the first half and 16 early in the second half.  But missed free throws and sloppy play doomed the Gophers late in the second half, as Maryland's Darryl Morsell hit the game-winning three with four seconds left to give the Terps a 74-73 win and all but eliminate Minnesota from the NCAA Tournament discussion.  Maryland's magic number to clinch the outright Big Ten title is now two.

Tonight, there are four Big Ten games, and each has seeding and/or NCAA Tournament implications.  IU travels to that bannerless shed in West Lafeyette to take on Purdue.  A loss for the Boilers would likely be a death blow for their fading NCAA Tournament hopes.  Wisconsin travels to Michigan for what should be a good game, and Illinois and Ohio State both have trap games on the road at Northwestern and Nebraska, respectively.

Next games

The next games take place tonight (all times Eastern):

-Indiana at Purdue (7:00 p.m.; FS1)
-Wisconsin at Michigan (7:00 p.m.; ESPN2)
-Illinois at Northwestern (8:00 p.m.; BTN)
-Ohio State at Nebraska (9:00 p.m.; ESPN2)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Maryland (13-4):  Michigan State (W); at Rutgers (L); Michigan (W)

2 (tie).  Michigan State (11-6):  at Maryland (L); at Penn State (L); Ohio State (W)
2 (tie).  Penn State (11-6):  at Iowa (L); Michigan State (W); at Northwestern (W)
4 (tie).  Illinois (10-6):  at Northwestern (W); Indiana (L); at Ohio State (L); Iowa (W)
4 (tie).  Wisconsin (10-6):  at Michigan (L); Minnesota (W); Northwestern (W); at Indiana (L)

6.  Iowa (10-7):  Penn State (w); Purdue (W); at Illinois (L)

7.  Michigan (9-7):  Wisconsin (W); at Ohio State (L); Nebraska (W); at Maryland (L)

8.  Rutgers (9-9):  Maryland (W); at Purdue (L)

9 (tie).  Indiana (8-8):  at Purdue (L); at Illinois (W); Minnesota (W); Wisconsin (W)

9 (tie).  Ohio State (8-8):  at Nebraska (W); Michigan (W); Illinois (W); at Michigan State (L)

11 (tie).  Minnesota (7-10):  at Wisconsin (L); at Indiana (L); Nebraska (W)

11 (tie).  Purdue (7-10):  Indiana (W); at Iowa (L); Rutgers (W)

13.  Nebraska (2-14):  Ohio State (L); Northwestern (W); at Michigan (L); at Minnesota (L)

14.  Northwestern (1-15):  Illinois (L); at Nebraska (L); at Wisconsin (L); Penn State (L)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Maryland (15-5)

2.  Penn State (13-7)
3.  Michigan State (12-8) (will have tiebreaker over Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin based on 4-1 record vs. other three teams, with Iowa having 2-2 record, Illinois having 2-3 record, and Wisconsin having 1-3 record)
4.  Iowa (12-8)

5.  Illinois (12-8)

6.  Wisconsin (12-8)

7.  Ohio State (11-9) (will have tiebreaker over IU and Michigan based on 3-1 record vs. both teams, while IU and Michigan both have 1-2 record vs. other two teams)

8.  Indiana (11-9)  (will have tiebreaker over Michigan based on better record vs. Penn State)

9.  Michigan (11-9)

10.  Rutgers (10-10)

11.  Purdue (9-11)

12.  Minnesota (8-12)
13.  Nebraska (3-15)

14.  Northwestern (1-19)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

In the past, I have also included far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, but, like the last couple years, I'm not even going to try to do that this year until the seeds are more finalized.  However, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 11 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (6 p.m. BTN)

(11) vs. (14) (8:30 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 12 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Friday March 13 – Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 14 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 15 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's BPI ranking (based on ESPN's BPI rankings), NET ranking (based on the NCAA's NET rankings), overall record against D-1 opponents, BPI strength of schedule, NET Quadrant 1/2 record, Quadrant 1 wins, Quadrant 2 wins, and Quadrant 3/4 losses (for an explanation of the NET rankings and the Quadrants, click here).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  For the "In" and "Out" teams, I'm putting them in order based on NET ranking.  For the "Bubble" teams, I am putting them in order based on what I think their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament is (which may or may not fall in line with the NET or BPI rankings).  For the "Out" teams, I'm just listing the BPI and NET ranking, since their quality wins or bad losses are pretty much irrelevant given their records.

In

1.  Maryland

BPI:  11

NET ranking:  10
Overall record:  23-5
BPI strength of schedule:  16

Quadrant 1/2 record: 12-5 (losses:  at Penn State, at Seton Hall, at Iowa, at Wisconsin, at Ohio State)

Quadrant 1 wins:  7 - Marquette*, Ohio State, at Indiana, Iowa, at Illinois, at Michigan State, at Minnesota
Quadrant 2 wins:  5 - Rhode Island, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Rutgers

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  None

2.  Michigan State

BPI:  4

NET ranking:  13

Overall record:  19-9

BPI strength of schedule:  11

Quadrant 1/2 record: 11-9 (losses:  Kentucky*, Virginia Tech*, Duke, at Purdue, at Indiana, at Wisconsin, Penn State, at Michigan, Maryland)

Quadrant 1 wins: 6 - at Seton Hall, Michigan, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, at Illinois, Iowa
Quadrant 2 wins:  5 - Georgia*, UCLA*, Rutgers, Illinois, Minnesota

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  None

3.  Ohio State

BPI:  10

NET ranking:  18

Overall record:  18-9

BPI strength of schedule:  10

Quadrant 1/2 record:  10-9 (losses:  at Minnesota, West Virginia*, Wisconsin, at Maryland, at Indiana, at Penn State, Minnesota, at Wisconsin, at Iowa)

Quadrant 1 wins:  5 - Villanova, Penn State, Kentucky*, at Michigan, Maryland
Quadrant 2 wins:  5 - Cincinnati, at North Carolina, Indiana, Rutgers, Purdue

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  None

4.  Michigan

BPI:  14

NET ranking:  22

Overall record:  18-9

BPI strength of schedule:  3

Quadrant 1/2 record:  11-9 (losses:  at Louisville, at Illinois, Oregon, at Michigan State, at Minnesota, at Iowa, Penn State, Illinois, Ohio State)

Quadrant 1 wins:  7 - Creighton, Gonzaga*, Iowa, Rutgers*, Michigan State, at Rutgers, at Purdue
Quadrant 2 wins:  4 - Iowa State*, North Carolina*, Purdue, Indiana

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  None

5.  Penn State

BPI:  21

NET ranking:  26

Overall record:  21-7

BPI strength of schedule:  18

Quadrant 1/2 record:  13-7 (losses:  Mississippi*, at Ohio State, at Rutgers, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, Illinois, at Indiana)

Quadrant 1 wins:  7 - at Georgetown, Maryland, Iowa*, Ohio State, at Michigan, at Michigan State, at Purdue
Quadrant 2 wins:  6 - Yale, Syracuse*, Alabama, Indiana, Minnesota, Rutgers

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  None

6.  Iowa

BPI:  26

NET ranking:  28

Overall record:  19-9

BPI strength of schedule:  5

Quadrant 1/2 record:  12-8 (losses:  DePaul, San Diego State*, at Michigan, at Maryland, at Purdue, at Indiana, at Michigan State)

Quadrant 1 wins:  7 - Texas Tech*, at Syracuse, Maryland, Michigan, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, Ohio State
Quadrant 2 wins:  5 - Minnesota, at Iowa State, Cincinnati*, Rutgers, Illinois

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  1 - at Nebraska

7.  Wisconsin

BPI:  27

NET ranking:  30

Overall record:  17-10

BPI strength of schedule:  4

Quadrant 1/2 record:  10-9 (losses:  St. Mary's*, Richmond*, at NC State, at Rutgers, Illinois, at Michigan State, at Purdue, at Iowa, at Minnesota)

Quadrant 1 wins:  7 - Marquette, at Tennessee, at Ohio State, at Penn State, Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State
Quadrant 2 wins:  3 - Indiana, Purdue, Rutgers

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  1 - New Mexico*

8.  Rutgers

BPI:  34

NET ranking:  34

Overall record:  18-11

BPI strength of schedule:  32

Quadrant 1/2 record:  7-10 (losses:  at Pittsburgh, at Michigan State, at Illinois, at Iowa, Michigan*, at Maryland, at Ohio State, Michigan, at Wisconsin, at Penn State)

Quadrant 1 wins:  3 - Wisconsin, Seton Hall, Penn State
Quadrant 2 wins:  4 - Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  1 - St. Bonaventure*

9.  Illinois

BPI:  32

NET ranking:  36

Overall record:  17-9

BPI strength of schedule:  25

Quadrant 1/2 record:  8-8 (losses:  at Arizona, at Maryland, Missouri*, at Michigan State, at Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, at Rutgers)

Quadrant 1 wins:  5 - Michigan, at Wisconsin, at Purdue, at Michigan, at Penn State
Quadrant 2 wins:  3 - Purdue, Rutgers, Minnesota

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  1 - Miami

Bubble

10.  Indiana

BPI:  39

NET ranking:  52

Overall record:  18-9

BPI strength of schedule:  15

Quadrant 1/2 record:  8-9 (losses:  at Wisconsin, Arkansas, at Maryland, at Rutgers, Maryland, at Penn State, at Ohio State, Purdue, at Michigan)

Quadrant 1 wins:  6 - Florida State, Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, at Minnesota, Penn State
Quadrant 2 wins:  2 - UConn*, Notre Dame*

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  None

11.  Purdue

BPI:  20

NET ranking:  37

Overall record:  14-14

BPI strength of schedule:  2

Quadrant 1/2 record:  7-13 (losses:  Texas, at Marquette, Florida State*, Butler*, at Illinois, at Michigan, at Maryland, Illinois, at Rutgers, Penn State, at Ohio State, at Wisconsin, Michigan)

Quadrant 1 wins:  4 - Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa, at Indiana
Quadrant 2 wins:  3 - VCU*, Virginia, Minnesota

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  1 - at Nebraska

12.  Minnesota

BPI:  36

NET ranking:  45

Overall record:  13-14

BPI strength of schedule:  1

Quadrant 1/2 record:  6-14 (losses:  Oklahoma*, at Butler, at Utah, DePaul, at Iowa, at Purdue, at Michigan State, at Rutgers, Michigan State, at Illinois, at Penn State, Iowa, Indiana, Maryland)

Quadrant 1 wins:  5 - Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, at Ohio State, Wisconsin
Quadrant 2 wins:  1 - Oklahoma State*

Quadrant 3/4 losses:  None

Out

13.  Northwestern

BPI:  147

NET ranking:  177
Overall record:  6-20

14.  Nebraska

BPI:  148

NET ranking:  185

Overall record:  7-19