Wednesday, March 04, 2020

Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Last night was a pivotal one in the Big Ten.  Rutgers got a very important win over Maryland at home, 78-67, to make sure the Scarlet Knights didn't fall off the bubble.  Michigan State won at Penn State, 79-71, which puts the Spartans in a tie for first place with Maryland.  Finally, Purdue beat Iowa in Iowa City, 77-68, to keep the Boilers in the NCAA Tournament conversation, unfortunately.  With one to two games left for each team, we are no closer to knowing the seeding for the Big Ten Tournament than we were in November.

Tonight, IU has a big home tilt with Minnesota, while Northwestern travels to Madison to play Wisconsin in what will presumably be a bloodbath.

Again, to point out how ridiculously strong the Big Ten is this year, the conference currently holds the top 6, 10 of the top 12, and 12 of the top 17 strongest schedules according to the BPI strength of schedule metric.  Only Illinois (28) and Rutgers (34) are have a strength of schedule lower than 17.

Next games
The next games are tonight (all times Eastern):
-Minnesota at Indiana (7:00 p.m.; BTN)
-Northwestern at Wisconsin (9:00 p.m.; BTN)

Current Standings
Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1 (tie).  Maryland (13-6):  Michigan (W)
1 (tie).  Michigan State (13-6):  Ohio State (W)
3 (tie).  Illinois (12-6):  at Ohio State (L); Iowa (W)
3 (tie).  Wisconsin (12-6):  Northwestern (W); at Indiana (L)
5 (tie).  Iowa (11-8):  at Illinois (L)
5 (tie).  Penn State (11-8):  at Northwestern (W)
7.  Ohio State (10-8):  Illinois (W); at Michigan State (L)
8.  Rutgers (10-9):  at Purdue (L)
9.  Michigan (9-9):  Nebraska (W); at Maryland (L)
10.  Purdue (9-10):  Rutgers (W)
11.  Indiana (8-10):  Minnesota (W); Wisconsin (W)
12.  Minnesota (7-11):  at Indiana (L); Nebraska (W)
13 (tie).  Nebraska (2-16):  at Michigan (L); at Minnesota (L)
13 (tie).  Northwestern (2-16):  at Wisconsin (L); Penn State (L)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding
Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Michigan State (14-6) (will have tiebreaker over Maryland based on 3-1 record vs. Illinois and Wisconsin, while Maryland has 2-1 record vs. Illinois and Wisconsin)
2.  Maryland (14-6)
3.  Illinois (13-7) (has tiebreaker over Wisconsin based on 1-0 head-to-head record)
4.  Wisconsin (13-7) 
5.  Penn State (12-8)
6.  Iowa (11-9) (has tiebreaker over Ohio State based on 1-0 head-to-head record)
7.  Ohio State (11-9)
8.  Michigan (10-10) (will have tiebreaker over other IU, Purdue, and Rutgers based on 5-0 record vs. other three teams, while Purdue will have 3-3 record, Rutgers will have 2-3 record, and IU will have 0-4 record vs. other three teams).
9.  Purdue (10-10)
10.  Rutgers (10-10)
11.  Indiana (10-10)
12.  Minnesota (8-12)
13.  Northwestern (2-18) (has tiebreaker over Nebraska based on 2-0 head-to-head record)
14.  Nebraska (2-18)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule
In the past, I have also included far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, and now that the seeding is kind of, sort of near being finalized, below are my predictions based on my current seeding projections.  Also, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament, which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 11 – First Round
(12) Minnesota vs. (13) Northwestern (6 p.m. BTN).  Predicted winner:  Minnesota
(11) Indiana vs. (14) Nebraska (8:30 p.m. BTN).  Predicted winner:  Indiana

Thursday March 12 – Second Round
(8) Michigan vs. (9) Purdue (Noon, BTN).  Predicted winner:  Michigan
(5) Penn State vs. (12) Minnesota (2:30 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Penn State
(7) Ohio State vs. (10) Rutgers (6:30 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Ohio State
(6) Iowa vs. (11) Indiana (9 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Indiana

Friday March 13 – Quarterfinals
(1) Michigan State vs. (8) Michigan (Noon, ESPN).  Predicted winner:  Michigan State
(4) Wisconsin vs. (5) Penn State (2:30 p.m., ESPN).  Predicted winner:  Wisconsin
(2) Maryland vs. (7) Ohio State (6:30 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Maryland
(3) Illinois vs. (11) Indiana (9 p.m., BTN).  Predicted winner:  Indiana

Saturday March 14 – Semifinals
(1) Michigan State vs. (4) Wisconsin (1 p.m., CBS).  Predicted winner:  Michigan State
(2) Maryland vs. (11) Indiana (3:30 p.m., CBS).  Predicted winner:  Indiana

Sunday March 15 – Finals
(1) Michigan State vs. (11) Indiana (3:30 p.m., CBS).  Predicted winner:  Michigan State

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams
Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's BPI ranking (based on ESPN's BPI rankings), NET ranking (based on the NCAA's NET rankings), overall record against D-1 opponents, BPI strength of schedule, and record against all four NET Quadrants (for an explanation of the NET rankings and the Quadrants, click here, and note that the Quadrants don't include record against non-D1 opponents).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  For the "In" and "Out" teams, I'm putting them in order based on NET ranking.  For the "Bubble" teams, I am putting them in order based on what I think their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament is (which may or may not fall in line with the NET or BPI rankings).  For the "Out" teams, I'm just listing the BPI and NET ranking (and record), since their quality wins or bad losses are pretty much irrelevant given their records.

In
1.  Michigan State
BPI:  4
NET ranking:  7
Overall record:  21-9
BPI strength of schedule:  6
Quadrant 1 record: 7-8
-Wins:  at Seton Hall (12), at Maryland (17), Michigan (24), Wisconsin (27), at Penn State (30), at Illinois (36), at Minnesota (45)
-Losses:  Duke (6), Maryland (17), Kentucky* (21), at Michigan (24), at Wisconsin (27), at Purdue (33), Penn State (30), at Indiana (54)
Quadrant 2 record:  6-1
-Wins:  Rutgers (32), Iowa (35), Illinois (36), Minnesota (45), UCLA* (75), Georgia* (84)
-Losses:  Virginia Tech* (87)
Quadrant 3 record:  2-0
-Wins:  at Northwestern (175), at Nebraska (194)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (175), Eastern Michigan (187), Oakland* (219), Western Michigan (231), Charleston Southern (315), Binghamton (331)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

2.  Ohio State
BPI:  9
NET ranking:  15
Overall record:  20-9
BPI strength of schedule:  16
Quadrant 1 record:  6-8
-Wins:  Villanova (14), Maryland (17), Kentucky* (21), Michigan (24), at Michigan (24), Penn State (30)
-Losses:  at Maryland (17), West Virginia* (19), Wisconsin (27), at Wisconsin (27), at Penn State (30), at Iowa (35), at Minnesota (45), at Indiana (54)
Quadrant 2 record:  5-1
-Wins:  Rutgers (32), Purdue (33), Cincinnati (51), Indiana (54), at North Carolina (83)
-Losses:  Minnesota (45)
Quadrant 3 record:  3-0
-Wins:  Kent State (118), at Northwestern (175), at Nebraska (194)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Nebraska (194), UMass Lowell (256), Purdue Fort Wayne (280), Stetson (300), Morgan State (307), Southeast Missouri State (342)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0


3.  Maryland
BPI:  12
NET ranking:  17
Overall record:  23-7
BPI strength of schedule:  8
Quadrant 1 record: 7-6
-Wins:  at Michigan State (7), Ohio State (15), Marquette* (26), at Illinois (36), at Minnesota (45), at Indiana (54)
-Losses:  Michigan State (7), at Seton Hall (12), at Ohio State (15), at Wisconsin (27), at Penn State (30), at Rugters (32), at Iowa (35)
Quadrant 2 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Rutgers (32), Purdue (33), Iowa (35), Illinois (36), Rhode Island (52), Indiana (54), Notre Dame (59)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 3 record:  3-0
-Wins:  Harvard* (102), Temple* (112), at Northwestern (175)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  7-0
-Wins:  George Mason (161), Northwestern (175), Nebraska (194), Oakland (219), Bryant (238), Fairfield (289), Holy Cross (343)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

4.  Michigan
BPI:  18
NET ranking:  24
Overall record:  18-11
BPI strength of schedule:  1
Quadrant 1 record:  6-10
-Wins:  Gonzaga* (2), Michigan State (7), Creighton (13), Rutgers* (32), at Rutgers (32), at Purdue (33)
-Losses:  at Michigan State (7), at Louisville (8), Ohio State (15), at Ohio State (15), Oregon (16), Wisconsin (27), Penn State (30), at Iowa (35), at Illinois (36), at Minnesota (45)
Quadrant 2 record:  5-1
-Wins:  Purdue (33), Iowa (35), Indiana (54), North Carolina* (83), Iowa State* (91)
-Losses:  Illinois (36)
Quadrant 3 record:  2-0
-Wins:  at Northwestern (175), at Nebraska (194)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  5-0
-Wins:  Appalachian State (177), Elon (254), UMass Lowell (256), Presbyterian (330), Houston Baptist (345)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

5.  Wisconsin
BPI:  22
NET ranking:  27
Overall record:  19-10
BPI strength of schedule:  3
Quadrant 1 record:  8-8
-Wins:  Michigan State (7), Maryland (17), at Ohio State (15), Ohio State (15), at Michigan (24), Marquette (26), at Penn State (30), at Tennessee (57)
-Losses:  at Michigan State (7), at Iowa (35), St. Mary's* (29), at Rutgers (32), at Purdue (33), at Minnesota (45), Richmond* (42), at NC State (58)
Quadrant 2 record:  4-1
-Wins:  Rutgers (32), Purdue (33), Minnesota (45), Indiana (54)
-Losses:  Illinois (36)
Quadrant 3 record:  1-1
-Wins:  at Nebraska (194)
-Losses:  New Mexico* (147)
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Rider (190), Nebraska (194), Green Bay (225), Eastern Illinois (236), Milwaukee (265), McNeese State (290)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

6.  Penn State
BPI:  23
NET ranking:  30
Overall record:  21-9
BPI strength of schedule:  11
Quadrant 1 record: 7-7
-Wins:  at Michigan State (7), Maryland (17), Ohio State (15), at Michigan (24), at Purdue (33), Iowa* (35), at Georgetown (62)
-Losses:  Michigan State (7), at Ohio State (15), Wisconsin (27), at Rutgers (32), at Iowa (35), at Minnesota (45), at Indiana (54)
Quadrant 2 record:  6-2
-Wins:  Rutgers (32), Alabama (50), Minnesota (45), Indiana (54), Yale (65), Syracuse* (67)
-Losses:  Illinois (36), Mississippi* (94)
Quadrant 3 record:  2-0
-Wins:  Wake Forest (103), at Nebraska (194)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (175), Bucknell (245), Cornell (308), Wagner (328), Central Connecticut State (347), Maryland-Eastern Shore (350)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

7.  Rutgers
BPI:  32
NET ranking:  32
Overall record:  19-11
BPI strength of schedule:  34
Quadrant 1 record:  4-9
-Wins:  Seton Hall (12), Maryland (17), Wisconsin (27), Penn State (30) 
-Losses:  at Michigan State (7), at Ohio State (15), at Maryland (17), Michigan* (24), Michigan (24), at Wisconsin (27), at Penn State (30), at Iowa (35), at Illinois (36)
Quadrant 2 record:  4-1
-Wins:  Purdue (33), Illinois (36), Minnesota (45), Indiana (54) 
-Losses:  at Pittsburgh (109)
Quadrant 3 record:  3-1
-Wins:  Stephen F. Austin (80), UMass (142), at Nebraska (194)
-Losses:  St. Bonaventure* (115)
Quadrant 4 record:  7-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (175), Nebraska (194), Lafayette (222), Drexel (233), Bryant (238), Niagara (303), NJIT (311)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  1-0

8.  Iowa
BPI:  26
NET ranking:  35
Overall record:  20-10
BPI strength of schedule:  5
Quadrant 1 record: 8-7
-Wins:  Ohio State (15), Maryland (17), Texas Tech* (22), Michigan (24), Wisconsin (27), Penn State (30), at Minnesota (45), at Syracuse (67) 
-Losses:  San Diego State* (4), at Michigan State (7), at Maryland (17), at Michigan (24), Penn State (30), at Purdue (33), at Indiana (54)
Quadrant 2 record:  5-1
-Wins:  Rutgers (32), Illinois (36), Minnesota (45), Cincinnati* (51), at Iowa State (91)
-Losses:  Purdue (33)
Quadrant 3 record:  2-2
-Wins:  Oral Roberts (150), at Northwestern (175)
-Losses:  DePaul (81), at Nebraska (194)
Quadrant 4 record:  5-0
-Wins:  North Florida (165), Nebraska (194), Cal Poly (324), SIU-Edwardsville (337), Kennesaw State (352)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

9.  Illinois
BPI:  33
NET ranking:  36
Overall record:  20-9
BPI strength of schedule:  28
Quadrant 1 record: 5-7
-Wins:  Michigan (24), at Michigan (24), at Wisconsin (27), at Penn State (30), at Purdue (33)
-Losses:  at Michigan State (7), Michigan State (7), at Arizona (10), at Maryland (17), Maryland (17), at Rutgers (32), at Iowa (35)
Quadrant 2 record:  4-1
-Wins:  Rutgers (32), Purdue (33), Minnesota (45), Indiana (54)
-Losses:  Missouri* (93)
Quadrant 3 record:  1-1
-Wins:  at Northwestern (175)
-Losses:  Miami (108)
Quadrant 4 record:  8-0
-Wins:  Old Dominion (168), Northwestern (175), Nebraska (194), Nicholls State (202), Hawaii (215), North Carolina A&T (253), at Grand Canyon (279), Hampton (321), The Citadel (338)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  1-0

Bubble
10.  Indiana
BPI:  39
NET ranking:  54
Overall record:  18-11
BPI strength of schedule:  10
Quadrant 1 record:  5-9
-Wins:  Michigan State (7), Florida State (11), Ohio State (15), Penn State (30), at Minnesota (45)
-Losses:  at Ohio State (15), at Maryland (17), Maryland (17), at Michigan (24), at Wisconsin (27), at Penn State (30), at Rutgers (32), at Purdue (33), at Illinois (36)
Quadrant 2 record:  3-2
-Wins:  Iowa (35), Notre Dame* (59), UConn* (64)
-Losses:  Purdue (33), Arkansas (47)
Quadrant 3 record:  4-0
-Wins:  Louisiana Tech (96), South Dakota State (121), Princeton (152), at Nebraska (194)
-Losses:  None
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Northwestern (175), Portland State (183), Nebraska (195), Troy (274), North Alabama (296), Western Illinois (336)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

11.  Purdue
BPI:  17
NET ranking:  33
Overall record:  16-14
BPI strength of schedule:  4
Quadrant 1 record:  4-11
-Wins:  Michigan State (7), Wisconsin (27), at Iowa (35), at Indiana (54)
-Losses:  Florida State* (11), at Ohio State (15), at Maryland (17), Butler* (20), at Michigan (24), Michigan (24), at Marquette (26), at Wisconsin (27), Penn State (30), at Rutgers (32), at Illinois (36)
Quadrant 2 record:  4-2
-Wins:  Iowa (35), Minnesota (45), Virginia (48), Indiana (54), VCU* (60) 
-Losses:  Illinois (36), Texas (55)
Quadrant 3 record:  1-1
-Wins:  at Northwestern (175)
-Losses:  at Nebraska (194)
Quadrant 4 record:  6-0
-Wins:  Ohio (166), Northwestern (175), Central Michigan (204), Green Bay (225), Jacksonville State (284), Chicago State (353)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

12.  Minnesota
BPI:  35
NET ranking:  45
Overall record:  13-15
BPI strength of schedule:  2
Quadrant 1 record:  5-11
-Wins:  Ohio State (15), at Ohio State (15), Michigan (24), Wisconsin (27), Penn State (30) 
-Losses:  at Michigan State (7), Michigan State (7), Maryland (17), at Butler (20), at Wisconsin (27), at Penn State (30), at Rutgers (32), at Iowa (35), at Purdue (33), at Illinois (36), Oklahoma* (46)
Quadrant 2 record:  2-3
-Wins:  Oklahoma State* (71), Clemson (72)
-Losses:  Iowa (35), Indiana (54), at Utah (86)
Quadrant 3 record:  1-1
-Wins:  at Northwestern (175)
-Losses:  DePaul (81)
Quadrant 4 record:  5-0
-Wins:  FIU (174), Northwestern (175), Central Michigan (204), North Dakota (246), Cleveland State (301)
-Losses:  None
Non-Division 1 record:  0-0

Out
13.  Northwestern
BPI:  145
NET ranking:  175
Overall record:  7-21

14.  Nebraska
BPI:  160
NET ranking:  194
Overall record:  7-22

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