Sunday, March 14, 2021

Final Championship Week Predictions: Sunday Bloody Sunday

Well, folks, it's here.  Selection Sunday.  We've waited a very long 365 days for today.  It was a fun and exciting Championship Week, as always.  Today's theme song is U2's tale of The Troubles, "Sunday Bloody Sunday," as it's not only an Irish-tinged week with St. Patrick's Day, but the final five conference championship games are today, and then we get to see who makes this year's field of 68.  It's not going to be a pleasant Sunday for everyone, as some teams' seasons won't make it past today, particularly because there were some teams that won conference tournaments that stole some spots from bubble teams.  Please note that, for the bubble teams below, my definition of "the bubble" is any team that's listed in ESPN's Bubble Watch that isn't a "lock."  Of course, there are other teams that may play themselves onto the bubble as the week progresses.

Here's what happened in yesterday's action and what we have to look forward to today:

  • In the ACC championship game, 4-seed Georgia Tech topped 2-seed Florida State, 80-75, securing the Yellow Jackets' 17th trip to the NCAA Tournament and first since 2010.
  • In the America East title game, 4-seed Hartford earned its first ever bid to the Big Dance with a 64-50 win over 6-seed UMass Lowell.  Somewhere Vin Baker is smiling.
  • In the Big 12 final, 3-seed Texas downed 5-seed Oklahoma State, 91-86.  The Longhorns will be playing in their 35th NCAA Tournament and first since 2018.
  • In the Big East championship, 8-seed Georgetown -- who was picked to finish last in the Big East in the preseason projections -- stole an at-large bid from someone with a decisive 73-48 win over 2-seed Creighton.  The Hoyas will be playing in their 31st NCAA Tournament and first since 2015.
  • In the Big Sky final, 2-seed Eastern Washington topped 5-seed Montana State, 65-55, to earn the Eagles their 3rd NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2015.
  • In the Big West title game, 1-seed UC Santa Barbara cruised to a 79-63 win over 2-seed UC Irvine.  The Gauchos will be playing in their 6th Big Dance and first since 2011.
  • In the Conference USA championship game, West 3-seed North Texas beat East 1-seed Western Kentucky 61-57 in an exciting OT game.  The Mean Green are playing in their 4th NCAA Tournament and first since 2010.
  • In the MAAC final, 9-seed Iona beat 7-seed Fairfield, 60-51, to earn the Gaels their 15th NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2019.  And with the win, Rick Pitino joins Lon Kruger and Tubby Smith as the only coaches in NCAA history to take five different schools to the NCAA Tournament.
  • In the MAC championship, 5-seed Ohio beat up on 2-seed Buffalo, 84-69.  The Bobcats will be playing in their 14th NCAA Tournament and first since 2012.
  • In the MEAC title game, North 2-seed Norfolk State beat North 3-seed Morgan State, 71-63.  The Spartans will be making their 2nd NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2012, when they upset 2-seed Missouri in the first round as a 15-seed.
  • In the Mountain West final, 1-seed San Diego State won their 14th game in a row with a 68-57 win over 2-seed Utah State.  The Aztecs will be playing in their 13th NCAA Tournament and first since 2018.
  • In the Pac-12 championship, 5-seed Oregon State beat 3-seed Colorado in an exciting 70-68 game for the Beavers' first-ever Pac-12 Tournament title.  Their win will steal a bid from a bubble team, and they'll be playing in their 18th NCAA Tournament and first since 2016.
  • In the Southland title game, 2-seed Abilene Christian destroyed 1-seed Nicholls State, 79-45.  The Wildcats will be playing in their 2nd Big Dance and first since 2019.
  • In the SWAC championship, 3-seed Texas Southern made easy work of 1-seed Prairie View A&M, 80-61, giving the Tigers their 9th trip to the Big Dance and first since 2018.
  • In the WAC final, 1-seed Grand Canyon -- coached by Valparaiso's NCAA Tournament hero Bryce Drew -- thumped 3-seed New Mexico State, 74-56, to earn the Antelopes their first ever NCAA Tournament appearance.
  • In the AAC semis, 1-seed Wichita State fell to 5-seed Cincinnati, 60-59, and 2-seed Houston held off 3-seed Memphis, 76-74.  The Bearcats could steal a bid from a bubble team with a win today.  They'll be playing for their 34th NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 2019.  The Cougars are a lock for the Big Dance, and they'll be playing in their 22nd and first since 2019.
  • In the Big Ten semis, 5-seed Ohio State beat archrival 1-seed Michigan in a 68-67 thriller, and 2-seed Illinois topped 3-seed Iowa, 82-71.  Both teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  The Buckeyes will be playing in their 34th NCAA Tournament and first since 2019, and the Fighting Illini will be playing in their 31st and first since 2013.
  • In the SEC semis, top seed Alabama downed 5-seed Tennessee, 73-68, and 3-seed LSU beat 2-seed Arkansas, 78-71.  Both teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament, even if LSU will probably have to vacate it eventually.  The Crimson Tide will be playing in their 22nd NCAA Tournament and first since 2018, and the Tigers will be playing in their 23rd and first since 2019.
  • Bubble teams that won yesterday:  Georgia Tech
  • Bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Memphis, Utah State, Wichita State
  • Bubble teams that haven't already lost, but were idle yesterday:  St. Bonaventure, VCU

With that, here are the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments.

Tournaments with games today
-AAC
-Atlantic 10
-Big Ten
-Patriot League
-SEC

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern)
-Patriot League (12 p.m.; CBSSN):  (9) Loyola (MD) at (2) Colgate
-Atlantic 10 (1 p.m.; CBS):  (1) St. Bonaventure vs. (2) VCU
-SEC (1 p.m.; ESPN):  (1) Alabama vs. (3) LSU
-AAC (3:15 p.m.; ESPN):  (2) Houston vs. (5) Cincinnati
-Big Ten (3:30 p.m.; CBS):  (2) Illinois vs. (5) Ohio State

Already clinched automatic berths (I will add in parentheses the NCAA tournament appearances for each school, including the bid just clinched, and for conferences whose tournaments have not yet ended, I'll list the date of the championship game)
-AAC (March 14)
-ACC:  Georgia Tech (17)
-America East:  Hartford (1)
-Atlantic 10 (March 14)
-Atlantic Sun:  Liberty (5)
-Big 12:  Texas (35)
-Big East:  Georgetown (31)
-Big Sky:  Eastern Washington (3)
-Big South:  Winthrop (11)
-Big Ten (March 14)
-Big West:  UC Santa Barbara (6)
-Colonial:  Drexel (5)
-Conference USA:  North Texas (4)
-Horizon:  Cleveland State (3)
-MAAC:  Iona (15)
-MAC:  Ohio (14)
-MEAC:  Norfolk State (2)
-Missouri Valley:  Loyola (IL) (7)
-Mountain West:  San Diego State (13)
-Northeast Conference:  Mount St. Mary's (6)
-Ohio Valley:  Morehead State (8)
-Pac-12:  Oregon State (18)
-Patriot League (March 14)
-SEC (March 14)
-Southern Conference:  UNC Greensboro (4)
-Southland:  Abilene Christian (2)
-Summit:  Oral Roberts (6)
-Sun Belt:  Appalachian State (3)
-SWAC:  Texas Southern (9)
-WAC:  Grand Canyon (1)
-West Coast:  Gonzaga (22)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern)

AAC (March 11-14; Fort Worth)
3/14 – Finals
3:15 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Houston vs. (5) Cincinnati.  Predicted winner:  Houston

Atlantic 10 (March 3-6, 14; Richmond)
3/14 – Finals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) St. Bonaventure vs. (2) VCU.  Predicted winner:  St. Bonaventure

Big Ten (March 10-14; Indianapolis)
3/14 – Finals
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (2) Illinois vs. (5) Ohio State.  Predicted winner:  Illinois

Patriot League (March 3, 6, 10, 14; campus of higher seed)
3/14 – Finals
12 p.m. (CBSSN) (9) Loyola (MD) at (2) Colgate.  Predicted winner:  Colgate

SEC (March 10-14; Nashville)
3/14 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Alabama vs. (3) LSU.  Predicted winner:  Alabama

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