Saturday, March 11, 2023

Updated Championship Week Predictions: "Dance With Me"

Today's Championship Week theme song is The Drifters' Top 15 1959 hit "Dance With Me," as Ben E. King's smooth vocals will provide the backdrop for the 13 bids to the Big Dance that will be clinched today. Overall, we will have 23 college basketball games over the course of 14+ hours -- from the tipoff of the America East championship game between Vermont and Lafayette at 11 a.m. ET until the end of the WAC Tournament title game between Southern Utah and Grand Canyon, scheduled to tip off at 11:30 p.m. ET.  There were a lot of great games yesterday, and definitely some bubbles that may have been burst.

Here's what happened yesterday, and what we have to look forward to:

  • In the ACC semifinals, 4-seed Duke took down top seed Miami, 85-78, and 2-seed Virginia made easy work of 3-seed Clemson, 76-56, to advance to tonight's title game.  Both teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  The Blue Devils will be playing in their 45th NCAA Tournament and second in a row, and the Cavaliers will be playing in their 25th and first since 2021.
  • In the Big 12 semis, 1-seed Kansas took care of 5-seed Iowa State, 71-58, and 2-seed Texas downed 6-seed TCU, 66-60, to advance to tonight's championship game.  Both teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  The Jayhawks will be playing in their 51st NCAA Tournament and third in a row, and the Longhorns will be playing in their 37th and third in a row.
  • In the Big East quarters, top seed Marquette squeaked by 4-seed UConn, 70-68, and 2-seed Xavier dominated 3-seed Creighton, 82-60.  Both teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  The Golden Eagles will be going to their 35th NCAA Tournament and second in a row, and the Musketeers will be going to their 29th and first since 2018.
  • In the Big West quarterfinals, 4-seed Cal State Fullerton upset 1-seed UC Irvine, 83-80, and 2-seed UC Santa Barbara topped 3-seed UC Riverside, 92-87, to advance to tonight's final, where the Titans will be seeking their 5th NCAA Tournament bid and second in a row, and the Gauchos will be seeking their 7th bid and first since 2021.
  • In the C-USA quarterfinals, top seed FAU escaped with a 68-65 win over 4-seed Middle Tennessee State, and potential bid stealer 3-seed UAB took down 2-seed North Texas, 76-69.  When they square off in tonight's title game, the Owls are likely a lock for the NCAA Tournament anyway and will be playing in their 2nd NCAA Tournament and first since 2002, and the Blazers will be playing for their 17th tournament berth and second in a row.
  • In the MAAC semis, 1-seed Iona beat 5-seed Niagara, 71-59, and in the battle of double-digit Cinderellas, 11-seed Marist -- the lowest seed in the tournament -- downed 10-seed St. Peter's, 69-57.  In this afternoon's championship game, the Gaels  will be seeking their 16th trip to the Big Dance and first since 2021, and the Red Foxes  will be seeking their 3rd trip and first since 1987, when Rik Smits was on the team.
  • In the all-Ohio MAC semifinals, top-seed Toledo beat 5-seed Ohio, 82-75, and 2-seed Kent State downed its rival 3-seed Akron, 79-73.  When they face off in tonight's title game, the Rockets will be seeking their 5th NCAA Tournament bid and first since 1980, and the Golden Flashes will be seeking their 7th bid and first since 2017.
  • In the MEAC semis, 1-seed Howard crushed 4-seed Maryland Eastern Shore, 74-55, and 3-seed Norfolk State upended 2-seed North Carolina Central, 72-65.  When they meet in this afternoon's championship game, the Bison will be playing for their 3rd NCAA Tournament bid and first since 1992, while the Spartans will be playing for their 4th bid and 3rd in a row.
  • In the MWC quarterfinals, top seed San Diego State stifled 5-seed San Jose State 64-49, and 3-seed Utah State got a much-needed victory over 2-seed Boise State, 72-62.  In tonight's title game, the Aztecs are a lock to make the NCAA Tournament and will be playing in their 15th and third in a row, while the Aggies are still firmly on the bubble and will be playing for their 23rd tournament appearance and first since 2021.
  • In the Pac-12 semis, 1-seed UCLA easily beat 4-seed Oregon, 75-56, and 2-seed Arizona easily beat 6-seed Arizona State, 78-59.  When they meet in tonight's title game, both teams are locks for the Big Dance.  The Bruins will be playing in their 52nd and third in a row, and the Wildcats will be playing in their 36th and second in a row.
  • In the SWAC semis, 2-seed Grambling topped 3-seed Jackson State, 78-69, and 8-seed Texas Southern beat 5-seed Alabama A&M, 74-61, setting up an all-Tiger title game.  In this evening's championship game, the Grambling Tigers will be seeking their first ever NCAA Tournament berth, and the Texas Southern Tigers will be seeking their 11th berth 3rd in a row (and 7th SWAC Tournament title in the last nine.
  • In the WAC quarterfinals, 5-seed Grand Canyon upset 1-seed Sam Houston State, 78-75, and 3-seed Southern Utah took down 2-seed Utah Valley, 89-88.  When they face off in tonight's title game, the Antelopes will be playing for their second trip to the Big Dance and first since 2021, and the Thunderbirds will be playing for their second trip and first since 2001.
  • In the AAC quarterfinals,1-seed Houston pulled away in the second half to beat 9-seed East Carolina, 60-46, 2-seed Memphis beat 7-seed UCF, 81-76, 3-seed Tulane bounced 6-seed Wichita State, 82-76, and 4-seed Cincinnati beat up on 5-seed Temple, 84-54, to advance to today's semifinals.
  • In the Big Ten quarters, top seed Purdue held off a pesky 9-seed Rutgers team with a 70-65 win, 10-seed Penn State bounced 2-seed Northwestern, 67-65 in OT, 3-seed Indiana survived 6-seed Maryland, 70-60, and 13-seed Ohio State becomes the lowest-seed team to make the Big Ten Tournament semifinals, beating 4-seed Michigan State, 68-58, to advance to today's semis.
  • In the SEC quarterfinals, 1-seed Alabama crushed 9-seed Mississippi State, 72-49, 2-seed Texas A&M beat 10-seed Arkansas, 67-61, 6-seed Vanderbilt upset 3-seed Kentucky, 80-73, and 4-seed Missouri outlasted 5-seed Tennessee, 79-71, to advance to today's semis.
  • The last conference tournament start today (the Ivy League), and all 18 remaining conference tournaments have games today.
  • 13 bids are up for grabs today (ACC, America East, Big 12, Big East, Big West, C-USA, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, MWC, Pac-12, SWAC, WAC), and the remaining 5 conference tournaments have semifinals today (AAC, A-10, Big Ten, Ivy League, SEC).
  • Here are the teams still alive in conference tournaments that have never been to the NCAA Tournament (not including teams who are ineligible for this year's NCAA Tournament):
    • America East:  2-seed UMass Lowell
    • SWAC:  2-seed Grambling
  • Bubble teams that won yesterday:  FAU, Memphis, Missouri, Penn State, Utah State, Vanderbilt
  • Bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Arizona State, Arkansas, Boise State, Clemson, Maryland, Mississippi State, North Texas, Oregon, Rutgers
Here are the tournaments starting today, the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments.

Tournaments starting today
-Ivy League

Tournaments with games today
-AAC
-ACC
-A-10
-America East
-Big 12
-Big East
-Big Ten
-Big West
-Conference USA
-Ivy League
-MAAC
-MAC
-MEAC
-Mountain West
-Pac-12
-SEC
-SWAC
-WAC

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern)
-America East (11 a.m.; ESPN2):  (2) UMass Lowell at (1) Vermont
-MEAC (1:00 p.m.; ESPN2):  (1) Howard vs. (3) Norfolk State
-MAAC (4 p.m.; ESPNU):  (1) Iona vs. (11) Marist
-SWAC (5:30 p.m.; ESPNU):  (2) Grambling vs. (8) Texas Southern
-Big 12 (6 p.m.; ESPN):  (1) Kansas vs. (2) Texas
-Mountain West (6 p.m.; CBS):  (1) San Diego State vs. (3) Utah State
-Big East (6:30 p.m.; Fox):  (1) Marquette vs. (2) Xavier
-MAC (7:30 p.m.; ESPN2):  (1) Toledo vs. (2) Kent State
-ACC (8:30 p.m.; ESPN):  (2) Virginia vs. (4) Duke
-Conference USA (8:30 p.m.; CBSSN):  (1) FAU vs. (3) UAB
-Big West (9:30 p.m.; ESPN2):  (2) UC Santa Barbara vs. (4) Cal State Fullerton
-Pac-12 (10:30 p.m.; ESPN):  (1) UCLA vs. (3) Arizona
-WAC (11:30 p.m.; ESPN2):  (3) Southern Utah vs. (5) Grand Canyon

Already clinched automatic berths (I will add in parentheses the NCAA tournament appearances for each school, including the bid just clinched and last NCAA Tournament appearance where applicable, and for conferences whose tournaments have not yet ended, I'll list the date of the championship game)
-AAC (March 12)
-ACC (March 11)
-America East (March 11)
-Atlantic 10 (March 12)
-Atlantic Sun:  Kennesaw State (1)
-Big 12 (March 11)
-Big East (March 11)
-Big Sky:  Montana State (5)
-Big South:  UNC Asheville (5)
-Big Ten (March 12)
-Big West (March 11)
-Colonial:  Charleston (6)
-Conference USA (March 11)
-Horizon:  Northern Kentucky (3)
-Ivy League (March 12)
-MAAC (March 11)
-MAC (March 11)
-MEAC (March 11)
-Missouri Valley:  Drake (6)
-Mountain West (March 11)
-Northeast Conference:  Fairleigh Dickinson (7)
-Ohio Valley:  Southeast Missouri State (2)
-Pac-12 (March 11)
-Patriot League:  Colgate (6)
-SEC (March 12)
-Southern Conference:  Furman (7)
-Southland:  Texas A&M Corpus Christi (3)
-Summit:  Oral Roberts (6)
-Sun Belt:  Louisiana (11)
-SWAC (March 11)
-WAC (March 11)
-West Coast:  Gonzaga (25)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern)

AAC (March 9-12; Fort Worth)
3/11 – Semifinals
3 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Houston vs. (4) Cincinnati.  Predicted winner:  Houston
5 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) Memphis vs. (3) Tulane.  Predicted winner:  Tulane
3/12 – Finals
3:15 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Houston vs. (3) Tulane.  Predicted winner:  Houston

ACC (March 7-11; Greensboro)
3/11 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Virginia vs. (4) Duke.  Predicted winner:  Virginia

America East (March 4, 7, 11; campus of higher seed for semis and final)
3/11 – Finals
11 a.m. (ESPN2) (2) UMass Lowell at (1) Vermont.  Predicted winner:  Vermont

Atlantic 10 (March 7-12; Brooklyn)
3/11 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) VCU vs. (4) St. Louis.  Predicted winner:  VCU
3:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Dayton vs. (3) Fordham.  Predicted winner:  Fordham
3/12 – Finals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) VCU vs. (3) Fordham.  Predicted winner:  VCU

Big 12 (March 8-11; Kansas City)
3/11 – Finals
6 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Kansas vs. (2) Texas.  Predicted winner:  Kansas

Big East (March 8-11; New York)
3/11 – Finals
6:30 p.m. (Fox) (1) Marquette vs. (2) Xavier.  Predicted winner:  Xavier

Big Ten (March 8-12; Chicago)
3/11 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBS) (1) Purdue vs. (13) Ohio State.  Predicted winner:  Purdue
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (3) Indiana vs. (10) Penn State.  Predicted winner:  Indiana
3/12 – Finals
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (1) Purdue vs. (3) Indiana.  Predicted winner:  Indiana

Big West (March 7, 9-11; Henderson, NV)
3/11 – Finals
9:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) UC Santa Barbara vs. (4) Cal State Fullerton.  Predicted winner:  UC Santa Barbara

Conference USA (March 8-11; Frisco, TX)
3/11 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) FAU vs. (3) UAB.  Predicted winner:  FAU

Ivy League (March 11-12; Princeton, NJ)
3/11 - Semifinals
11 a.m. (ESPNU) (1) Yale vs. (4) Cornell.  Predicted winner:  Yale
2 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Princeton vs. (3) Penn.  Predicted winner:  Princeton
3/12 - Finals
Noon (ESPN2) (1) Yale vs. (2) Princeton.  Predicted winner:  Princeton

MAAC (March 7-11; Atlantic City, NJ)
3/11 – Finals
4 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Iona vs. (11) Marist.  Predicted winner:  Iona

MAC (March 9-11; Cleveland)
3/11 – Finals
7:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Toledo vs. (2) Kent State.  Predicted winner:  Toledo

MEAC (March 8-11; Norfolk, VA)
3/11 – Final
1:00 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Howard vs. (3) Norfolk State.  Predicted winner:  Norfolk State

Mountain West (March 8-11; Las Vegas)
3/11 – Finals
6 p.m. (CBS) (1) San Diego State vs. (3) Utah State.  Predicted winner:  San Diego State

Pac-12 (March 8-11; Paradise, NV)
3/11 – Finals
10:30 p.m. (ESPN) (1) UCLA vs. (2) Arizona.  Predicted winner:  Arizona

SEC (March 8-12; Nashville)
3/11 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Alabama vs. (4) Missouri.  Predicted winner:  Alabama
3 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Texas A&M vs. (6) Vanderbilt.  Predicted winner:  Kentucky
3/12 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Alabama vs. (2) Texas A&M.  Predicted winner:  Alabama

SWAC (March 8-11; Birmingham, AL)
3/11 – Finals
5:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Grambling vs. (8) Texas Southern.  Predicted winner:  Grambling

WAC (March 7, 9-11; Paradise, NV)
3/11 – Finals
11:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (3) Southern Utah vs. (5) Grand Canyon.  Predicted winner:  Southern Utah

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