Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Tuesday Top Ten: Fun Facts About This Year's Final Four

After a relatively unexciting first round of the NCAA Tournament, followed by a pretty damn exciting second round, the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight did not disappoint, for the most part. 

Thursday night was about as good as it could get for an IU fan in a year that IU is not playing in the NCAA Tournament.  There were three great games that came down to the final possession, along with Purdue getting absolutely throttled by Kansas.

In the West, top seed Gonzaga held off 4-seed West Virginia, 61-58, when the Mountaineers failed to get off a shot in time on their final possession.  Then, 11-seed Xavier busted many a bracket by coming back from behind to beat 2-seed Arizona, 73-71.  In Saturday's regional final, Gonzaga left no doubt about who was the best in the West this year, dominating Xavier, 83-59.  This will be the Bulldogs' first ever Final Four appearance.

In the Midwest, 7-seed Michigan's magical run came to an end Thursday night, as the Wolverines' potential game winning shot missed in the final seconds, sealing the win for 3-seed Oregon.  In the other game, 1-seed Kansas beat 4-seed Purdue, 98-66.  That was fun to watch.  In the Elite Eight game Saturday night, no one gave Oregon much of a chance, especially considering the game was being played in Kansas City, basically an hour from Lawrence.  The Ducks didn't get the memo, getting out to an 18-point lead early in the second half, before Kansas closed it to 6 with a few minutes, just before Oregon pulled away for a 74-60 win.  It will be the Ducks' second Final Four appearance and first since 1939 –- yes, 1939 -- when they won the inaugural NCAA Tournament.

In the East Region, 7-seed South Carolina blitzed 3-seed Baylor, 70-50, which was followed up by the game of the tournament thus far, in which 4-seed Florida and 8-seed Wisconsin played in the first (and only) overtime game of the tournament this year.  The Badgers came back from a 12-point deficit in the second half tied the game up at the end of regulation on a circus three from Zak Showalter.  Not to be outdone, down two with four seconds, left, Gators guard Chris Chiozza took the ball the length of the court and hit the game-winning, on-the-run three as time expired.  On Sunday, the Gamecocks bested their SEC brethren, 77-70, clinching their first-ever Final Four berth.

In the South, on Friday night, top-seed North Carolina bested 4-seed Butler, 92-80, while 2-seed Kentucky topped 3-seed UCLA, sending Lonzo Ball to the NBA to drown his sorrows.  The Elite Eight game between the Tar Heels and Wildcats was an instant classic.  After exchanging leads for most of the game, UNC looked like they were going to pull away in the last few minutes, but then Kentucky roared back.  Malik Monk hit a game-tying three with about 7 seconds left.  North Carolina then sprinted down the court, and Luke Maye hit the game winner with his heels on the three-point line with 0.3 seconds left.  It's the Tar Heels' record-extending 20th Final Four and second in a row.

Here are the Final Four game times this Saturday (Eastern).  Both games are on CBS:
(W1) Gonzaga vs. (E7) South Carolina – 6:09 p.m.

(S1) North Carolina vs. (MW3) Oregon – 8:49 p.m.

As I do this time of year, I'm going to drop some Final Four statistical knowledge on you.  Get ready for it.

10.  For the third year in a row, a team with double-digit losses has made it to the Final Four.  Syracuse is the 18th team with 10 or more losses to advance to the Final Four (with all but five coming after seeding was introduced in 1979).  With 13 losses, the Orange is tied for the most losses ever by a Final Four team.  Of the previous 17 double-digit-loss teams, 6 have advanced to the title game, and 3 have won it all.  Here are the teams with 10 or more losses entering the Final Four (and how many losses they had when entering the Final Four):
2017:  South Carolina (10)
2016:  Syracuse (13)
2015:  Michigan State (11)
2014:  Kentucky** (10)
2011:  VCU (11)
2002:  Indiana** (11)
2001:  Maryland (10)
2000:  North Carolina (13), Wisconsin (13)
1988:  Kansas* (11)
1986:  LSU (11)
1985:  Villanova* (10)
1984:  Virginia (11)
1983:  NC State* (10)
1959:  Louisville (10)
1954:  Bradley** (12)
1952:  Santa Clara (10)
1950:  Baylor (11)
1949:  Oregon State (10)
*Champions
**Advanced to championship game

9.  With North Carolina's win Sunday, Roy Williams is coaching in his 9th Final Four, moving him to within two of Dean Smith for third place on the list of head coaching Final Four appearances.  Here are the coaches who have been to 5 or more Final Fours (John Calipari is not on this list because 2 of his 6 Final Four appearances have been vacated by the NCAA):
1 (tie).  Mike Krzyzewski - Duke (12)
1 (tie).  John Wooden - UCLA (12)
3.  Dean Smith - North Carolina (11)
4.  Roy Williams - Kansas, North Carolina (9)
5 (tie).  Tom Izzo - Michigan State (7)
5 (tie).  Rick Pitino - Providence, Kentucky, Louisville (7)
6 (tie).  Denny Crum – Louisville (6)
6 (tie).  Adolph Rupp – Kentucky (6)
8 (tie).  Jim Boeheim – Syracuse (5)
8 (tie).  Bob Knight – Indiana (5)
8 (tie).  Guy Lewis – Houston (5)
8 (tie).  Lute Olson – Iowa, Arizona (5)

8.  There are 9 schools with 8 or more Final Fours:  North Carolina (20), UCLA (18), Kentucky (17), Duke (16), Kansas (14), Ohio State (11), Louisville (10), Michigan State (9), and Indiana (8).  This is the 32nd year in a row and the 60th year out of the last 61 that at least one of those 9 teams has been in the Final Four.  In fact, one of those teams has been in all but 8 of 78 Final Fours (1941, 1943, 1947, 1950, 1954, 1955, 1956, and 1985).

7.  Oregon has not been to the Final Four since winning it all in 1939.  This 78-year drought between Final Fours is obviously the longest in history, since there was no Final Four before 1939 and there is no point further in time than the present.  Did I just blow your mind?  If not, here are both the longest current Final Four droughts and longest all-time droughts between appearances:

Here are the longest current Final Four droughts for teams that have previously played in at least one Final Four (and are currently Division 1 schools –- sorry CCNY fans).  I was surprised that half of them are "major" conference teams.  I'm adding a year, since the earliest these teams could make the Final Four would be 2018:
1.  Duquesne:  78 years (1940)
2 (tie).  Pittsburgh and Washington State:  77 years (1941)
4.  Wyoming:  75 years (1943)
5 (tie).  Dartmouth and Iowa State:  74 years (1944)
7.  Holy Cross:  70 years (1948)
8.  Baylor:  68 years (1950)
9.  Santa Clara:  66 years (1952)
10.  Washington:  65 years (1953)

Here are the ten all-time longest droughts between Final Four appearances:
1.  Oregon:  78 years (1939-2017)
2 (tie).  Stanford:  56 years (1942-1998)
2 (tie).  Texas:  56 years (1947-2003)
4.  West Virginia:  51 years (1959-2010)
5.  Oklahoma State:  44 years (1951-1995)
6.  Oklahoma:  41 years (1947-1988)
7.  Georgetown:  39 years (1943-1982)
8.  Illinois:  37 years (1952-1989)
9.  DePaul:  36 years (1943-1979)
10 (tie).  Arkansas 33 years (1945-1978)
10 (tie).  St. John's:  33 years (1952-1985)

6.  This year's Final Four features three coaches who are coaching in their first-ever Final Fours:  Oregon's Dana Altman, Gonzaga's Mark Few, and South Carolina's Frank Martin.  This is a relatively rare occurrence, as it has happened only 5 times since seeding was instituted in 1979, and 16 times since 1944 (all of the five Final Fours before that featured four first-time coaches).  Here are the years since 1944 in which three or more coaches made their Final Four debut:
2006:  3:  Ben Howland (UCLA)**, John Brady (UCLA), Jim Larranaga (George Mason)
1999:  3:  Jim Calhoun (UConn)*, Tom Izzo (Michigan State), Jim O'Brien (Ohio State)
1998:  4:  Tubby Smith (Kentucky)*, Rick Majerus (Utah)**, Bill Guthridge (North Carolina), Mike Montgomery (Stanford)
1985:  3:  Rollie Massimino (Villanova)*, Lou Carnesecca (St. John's), Dana Kirk (Memphis State)
1979:  3:  Jud Heathcote (Michigan State)*, Bill Hodges (Indiana State)**, Bob Wienhauer (Penn)
1978:  3:  Bill Foster (Duke)**, Digger Phelps (Notre Dame), Eddie Sutton (Arkansas)
1973:  3:  Gene Bartow (Memphis State)**, Dave Gavitt (Providence), Bob Knight (Indiana)
1971:  3:  Jack Kraft (Villanova)**, Johnny Oldham (Western Kentucky), Ted Owens (Kansas)
1970:  3:  Joe Williams (Jacksonville)**, Lou Henson (New Mexico State), Larry Weise (St. Bonaventure)
1967:  3:  Bob Donoher (Dayton)**, Guy Lewis (Houston), Dean Smith (North Carolina)
1959:  4:  Pete Newell (California)*, Fred Schaus (West Virginia)**, Peck Hickman (Louisville), George Smith (Cincinnati)
1955:  3:  Phil Woolpert (San Francisco)*, Bebe Lee (Colorado), Bucky O'Connor (Iowa)
1954:  3:  Ken Loeffler (LaSalle)*, Elmer Gross (Penn State), Forrest Twogood (USC)
1947:  3:  Doggie Julian (Holy Cross)*, Nat Holman (CCNY), Jack Gray (Texas)
1945:  3:  Henry Iba (Oklahoma A&M)*, Howard Cann (NYU)**, Eugene Lambert (Arkansas)
1944:  3:  Vadal Peterson (Utah)*, Earl Brown (Dartmouth)**, Louis Menze (Iowa State)
*Won NCAA championship
**Advanced to title game

On a similar note, if anyone but North Carolina wins the national title, it will be the 26th time that a first-time Final Four coach will have won the championship.  Of course, those numbers are heavily skewed towards the beginning decades of the NCAA Tournament.  Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, it has only happened 7 times.  Here is everyone (including before 1985), in reverse chronological order:
-Kevin Ollie (UConn, 2014)
-Bill Self (Kansas, 2008)
-Jim Calhoun (UConn, 1999)
-Tubby Smith (Kentucky, 1998)
-Jim Harrick (UCLA, 1995)
-Steve Fisher (Michigan, 1989)
-Rollie Massimino (Villanova, 1985)
-Jim Valvano (NC State, 1983)
-Jud Heathcote (Michigan State, 1979)
-Norm Sloan (NC State, 1974)
-Don Haskins (Texas Western, 1966)
-George Ireland (Loyola (Ill.), 1963)
-Ed Jucker (Cincinnati, 1961)
-Fred Taylor (Ohio State, 1960)
-Pete Newell (California, 1959)
-Phil Woolpert (San Francisco, 1955)
-Ken Loeffler (LaSalle, 1954)
-Doggie Julian (Holy Cross, 1947)
-Henry Iba (Oklahoma A&M, 1945)
-Vadal Peterson (Utah, 1944)
-Everett Shelton (Wyoming, 1943)
-Everett Dean (Stanford, 1942)
-Harold E. Foster (Wisconsin, 1941)
-Branch McCracken (Indiana, 1940)
-Howard Hobson (Oregon, 1939)

5.  The West Coast Conference has their first team in the Final Four (Gonzaga) since 1957 (San Francisco).  That is the longest drought between Final Four appearances for any conference in the history of the NCAA Tournament.  Here are the longest droughts for conferences between Final Fours (not counting current droughts, but counting defunct conferences):
1.  West Coast Conference:  60 years - 1957 (San Francisco) to 2017 (Gonzaga)
2.  Missouri Valley Conference:  34 years – 1979 (Indiana State) to 2013 (Wichita State)
3.  WAC:  32 years – 1966 (Utah) to 1998 (Utah)
4.  Southwest Conference*:  22 years – 1956 (SMU) to 1978 (Arkansas)
5.  Ivy League:  21 years – 1944 (Dartmouth) to 1965 (Princeton)
6.  Mountain States*:  17 years – 1944 (Utah) to 1961 (Utah)
7.  Big 12/Big 8/Big 7/Big 6:  12 years – 1974 (Kansas) to 1986 (Kansas)
8 (tie).  Pac-12/Pac-10/Pac-8/Big Six/Big Five/AAWU/Pacific Coast Conference:  9 years
- 2008 (UCLA) to 2017 (Oregon)
8 (tie).  SEC:  9 years – 1966 (Kentucky) to 1975 (Kentucky)
8 (tie).  Southern Conference:  9 years – 1950 (NC State) to 1959 (West Virginia)
11.  Big East:  7 years – 1989 (Seton Hall) to 1996 (Syracuse)
12.  Big Ten:  6 years – 1981 (Indiana) to 1987 (Indiana)
13 (tie).  ACC:  5 years – 1957 (North Carolina) to 1962 (Wake Forest)
13 (tie).  Colonial Athletic Association:  5 years – 2006 (George Mason) to 2011 (VCU)
15 (tie).  Big West:  3 years – 1987 (UNLV) to 1990 (UNLV)
15 (tie).  Conference USA:  3 years – 2005 (Louisville) to 2008 (Memphis)
17.  Metro Conference*:  2 years – 1980 (Louisville) to 1982 (Louisville), 1983 (Louisville) to 1985 (Memphis State)
18.  Horizon:  1 year – 2010 (Butler) to 2011 (Butler)
*defunct conference

4.  For the first time since 2008, there is at least one Pac-12 team, at least one team from the Pacific Time Zone, and at least two teams from West of the Mississippi River in the Final Four.  In fact, there are two teams from the Pacific Time Zone in the Final Four at the same time for the first time ever.

3.  There are two 1-seeds in the Final Four (Gonzaga and North Carolina).  Oddly, in the 15 previous years in which two 1-seeds have advanced to the Final Four, one of them has won the title only 9 times.  Here is a breakdown of how many #1 seeds have advanced to the Final Four each year since 1979.
2017:  2 (Gonzaga, North Carolina
2016: 1 (North Carolina**)
2015: 3 (Duke*, Wisconsin**, Kentucky)
2014: 1 (Florida)
2013: 1 (Louisville*)
2012: 1 (Kentucky*)
2011: 0
2010: 1 (Duke*)
2009: 2 (North Carolina*, Connecticut)
2008: 4 (Kansas*, Memphis**, North Carolina, UCLA)
2007: 2 (Florida*, Ohio State**)
2006: 0
2005: 2 (North Carolina*, Illinois**)
2004: 1 (Duke)
2003: 1 (Texas)
2002: 2 (Maryland*, Kansas)
2001: 2 (Duke*, Michigan State)
2000: 1 (Michigan State*)
1999: 3 (Connecticut*, Duke**, Michigan State)
1998: 1 (North Carolina)
1997: 3 (Kentucky**, North Carolina, Minnesota)
1996: 2 (Kentucky*, Massachusetts)
1995: 1 (UCLA*)
1994: 1 (Arkansas*)
1993: 3 (North Carolina*, Michigan**, Kentucky)
1992: 1 (Duke*)
1991: 2 (UNLV, North Carolina)
1990: 1 (UNLV*)
1989: 1 (Illinois)
1988: 2 (Oklahoma**, Arizona)
1987: 2 (Indiana*, UNLV)
1986: 2 (Duke**, Kansas)
1985: 2 (Georgetown**, St. John's)
1984: 2 (Georgetown*, Kentucky)
1983: 2 (Houston**, Louisville)
1982: 2 (North Carolina*, Georgetown**)
1981: 2 (LSU, Virginia)
1980: 0
1979: 1 (Indiana State**)
*Champions
**Advanced to championship game

2.  The average seed for this year's Final Four is 3, which is skewed by South Carolina being a 7-seed.  That said, this is only the 15th time since seeding began in 1979 that the average seed is 3 or higher.  Here are the average seeds for the Final Four since 1979:
2017:  3
2016: 3.75
2015: 2.5
2014: 4.5
2013: 4.5
2012: 2.25
2011: 6.5
2010: 3.25
2009: 1.75
2008: 1
2007: 1.5
2006: 5
2005: 2.75
2004: 2
2003: 2.25
2002: 2.25
2001: 1.75
2000: 5.5
1999: 1.75
1998: 2.25
1997: 1.75
1996: 2.75
1995: 2.25
1994: 2
1993: 1.25
1992: 3.25
1991: 1.75
1990: 3
1989: 2.25
1988: 2.5
1987: 2.5
1986: 3.75
1985: 3
1984: 2.75
1983: 3
1982: 2.75
1981: 1.75
1980: 5.25
1979: 3.5

1.  South Carolina is the 4th 7-seed to get to the Final Four and the 29th team seeded 5 or higher have advanced to the Final Four since seeding began in 1979.  Two of the previous three 7-seeds lost their semifinal games, while 7-seed UConn won it all in 2014.  Of the prior 28 teams seeded 5 or higher, only 4 have won it all, another 7 have been runners up, and the remaining 16 have lost in the semis.  Here are the years in which there have been any teams seeded 5 or higher in the Final Four since 1979:
2017:  1:  7-seed South Carolina
2016:  1: 10-seed Syracuse
2015:  1: 7-seed Michigan State
2014:  2: 7-seed UConn* and 8-seed Kentucky**
2013:  1: 9-seed Wichita State
2011:  2: 8-seed Butler** and 11-seed VCU
2010:  2: 5-seeds Butler** and Michigan State
2006:  1: 11-seed George Mason
2005:  1: 5-seed Michigan State
2002:  1: 5-seed Indiana**
2000:  3: 5-seed Florida**, 8-seeds North Carolina and Wisconsin
1996:  1: 5-seed Mississippi State
1992:  1: 6-seed Michigan**
1988:  1: 6-seed Kansas*
1987:  1: 6-seed Providence
1986:  1: 11-seed LSU
1985:  1: 8-seed Villanova*
1984:  1: 7-seed Virginia
1983:  1: 6-seed NC State*
1982:  1: 6-seed Houston
1980:  3: 5-seed Purdue, 6-seed Iowa, 8-seed UCLA**
1979:  1: 9-seed Penn
*Champions
**Advanced to championship game

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