Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Well, the Hoosiers shit another one away with turnovers and stupid fouls, falling to Purdue at that shithole called Mackey Area, 86-75.  With the win, Purdue clinched a share of the Big Ten title and the 1-seed in the Big Ten Tournament.  With the loss, the Hoosiers fall to 16-14 overall and 6-11 in the Big Ten.  Not that I am holding out hope of an at-large NCAA Tournament berth for IU, but I heard the other night on ESPN that no team with 15 or more losses has ever received an at-large bid, so the Hoosiers will have to win the Big Ten Tournament if they want to get to the Big Dance.  To put that in perspective, let's take a look at IU's beleaguered history at the Big Ten Tournament:

-IU has never won the Big Ten Tournament

-IU has only advanced to the final game only once (2001)

-IU has only advanced to the semifinals only 5 times (2001, 2002, 2003, 2006, and 2013)

-IU has lost its first game of the Big Ten Tournament 11 times (1999, 2000, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, and 2016)

-IU has an 11-19 overall record in the tournament, tied with Penn State for 11th in the Big Ten, ahead of only Northwestern and Rutgers.

I'm sure things will turn around this year, though.

Worse yet, the Hoosiers will need a win on Saturday at Ohio State to ensure that they won't be one of the bottom four seeds in the Big Ten Tournament.  The best seed IU could possibly get is the 9-seed, and the worst is the 13-seed.  What a fucking disaster of a season.

Elsewhere, Maryland beat up on Rutgers, 79-59, while Ohio State beat Penn State 71-70 on a score by Jae'Sean Tate with 3 seconds left.  The Buckeyes' win pushes their RPI up to 59, which doesn't quite put them in the bubble conversation just yet, but with a win over IU on Saturday and a few wins in the Big Ten Tournament, they could enter the conversation.

Tonight features two big games for bubble teams.  Michigan travels to Evanston to face a reeling Northwestern team that has lost 5 of 7.  Northwestern really needs a win to avoiding Northwesterning its NCAA Tournament hopes.  Meanwhile, Michigan State travels to Champaign to take on Illinois.  MSU is relatively safe for the tournament, but Illinois could creep into the bubble conversation with a win over the Spartans and then a win over Rutgers on Saturday.

Next games

Here are Tuesday's games (all times Eastern):

-Michigan at Northwestern (7:00 p.m.; BTN)

-Michigan State at Illinois (9:00 p.m.; BTN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Purdue (13-4):  at Northwestern (L)

2.  Wisconsin (11-5):  Iowa (W); Minnesota (W)

3.  Maryland (11-6):  Michigan State (W)

4 (tie).  Minnesota (10-6):  Nebraska (W); at Wisconsin (L)

4 (tie).  Michigan State (10-6):  at Illinois (W); at Maryland (L)

6 (tie).  Northwestern (9-7):  Michigan (W); Purdue (W)

6 (tie).  Michigan (9-7):  at Northwestern (L); at Nebraska (L)

8.  Iowa (8-8):  at Wisconsin (L); Penn State (W)

9.  Illinois (7-9):  Michigan State (L); at Rutgers (L)

10.  Ohio State (7-10):  Indiana (L)

11.  Nebraska (6-10):  at Minnesota (L); Michigan (W)

12 (tie).  Indiana (6-11):  at Ohio State (W)

12 (tie).  Penn State (6-11):  at Iowa (L)

14.  Rutgers (2-15):  Illinois (W)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Purdue (13-5) (has tiebreaker over Wisconsin based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

2.  Wisconsin (13-5)

3.  Maryland (12-6)  

4.  Michigan State (11-7) (has tiebreaker based on 3-0 record vs. other two teams, with Minnesota next at 1-2 and Northwestern third at 0-3)

5.  Minnesota (11-7)

6.  Northwestern (11-7)

7.  Michigan (9-9) (has tiebreaker over Iowa based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

8.  Iowa (9-9)

9.  Illinois (7-11) (both IU and Illinois have 2-1 record vs. other three teams, with Nebraska third at 2-2 and OSU fourth at 1-3. Both IU and Illinois failed to beat Purdue, Wisconsin, or Maryland.  Both would have 2-2 records against MSU, Minnesota, and Northwestern.  Illinois would then have tiebreaker based on better combined record than IU against Michigan and Iowa (2-1 vs. 0-3))

10.  Indiana (7-11)

11.  Nebraska (7-11)

12.  Ohio State (7-11)

13.  Penn State (6-12)

14.  Rutgers (3-15)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

In the past, I have also included far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, but, like the last couple years, I'm not even going to try to do that this year until the seeds are more finalized.  However, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Washington, DC.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 8 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) Rutgers (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 9 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 10 – Quarterfinals

(1) Purdue vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 11 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 12 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), BPI (based on ESPN's BPI rankings), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  I have also added a record vs. the RPI Top 50 and Top 100.  For the "In" and "Out" teams, I'm putting them in order based on RPI ranking.  For the "Bubble" teams, I am putting them in order based on what I think their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament is (which may or may not fall in line with the RPI ranking).

In

1.  Minnesota

RPI:  16

BPI:  39

Overall record:  22-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  7-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  13-7

Good wins:  7 (at Purdue (20), at Maryland (27), Arkansas (28), UT Arlington (35), Michigan (46), Vanderbilt* (47), at Northwestern (50))

Bad losses:  None (at Penn State (95))

2.  Purdue

RPI:  20

BPI:  11

Overall record:  24-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  6-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  14-6

Good wins:  6 (Notre Dame* (21), at Maryland (27), Wisconsin (31), at Michigan State (40), Michigan State (40), Northwestern (50))

Bad losses:  None (at Iowa (91))

3.  Maryland

RPI:  27

BPI:  44

Overall record:  23-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-3

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  14-7

Good wins:  4 (at Minnesota (16), Oklahoma State (30), at Michigan (46), at Northwestern (50))

Bad losses:  None (at Penn State (95))

4.  Wisconsin

RPI:  31

BPI:  20

Overall record:  22-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  13-7

Good wins:  3 (at Minnesota (16), Maryland (27), Michigan (46))

Bad losses:  None (at Ohio State (59))

Bubble

5.  Northwestern

RPI:  50

BPI:  43

Overall record:  20-9

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  9-9

Good wins:  3 (Dayton* (22), at Wisconsin (31), Wake Forest (45))

Bad losses:  None (at Indiana (88))

6.  Michigan State

RPI:  40

BPI:  48

Overall record:  18-11

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  6-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  11-10

Good wins:  6 (Minnesota (16), at Minnesota (16), Wisconsin (31), Wichita State* (42), Michigan (46), Northwestern (50))

Bad losses:  1 (Northeastern (123))

7.  Michigan

RPI:  46

BPI:  24

Overall record:  19-10

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  11-10

Good wins:  4 (SMU* (19), Purdue (20), Wisconsin (31), Michigan State (40))

Bad losses:  None (at Iowa (91))

Out

8.  Illinois

RPI:  56

BPI:  61

Overall record:  17-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  9-12

Good wins:  4 (VCU* (23), Michigan (46), Northwestern (50), at Northwestern (50))

Bad losses:  None (at Penn State (95), Penn State (95))

9.  Ohio State

RPI:  59

BPI:  59

Overall record:  17-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-12

Good wins:  4 (Minnesota (16), Wisconsin (31), Michigan State (40), at Michigan (46))

Bad losses:  1 (Florida Atlantic (286))

10.  Nebraska

RPI:  84

BPI:  105

Overall record:  12-16

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-10

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  7-14

Good wins:  3 (Purdue (20), Dayton* (22), at Maryland (27))

Bad losses:  2 (at Rutgers (176), Gardner-Webb (197))

11.  Indiana

RPI:  88

BPI:  30

Overall record:  16-14

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-11

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  7-13

Good wins:  3 (Kansas* (2), North Carolina (5), Michigan State (40), Northwestern (50))

Bad losses:  1 (at Fort Wayne (166))

12.  Iowa

RPI:  91

BPI:  79

Overall record:  16-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  7-11

Good wins:  4 (Purdue (20), at Maryland (27), Iowa State (33), Michigan (46))

Bad losses:  2 (Memphis* (110), Omaha (143))

13.  Penn State

RPI:  95

BPI:  88

Overall record:  14-16

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-13

Good wins:  3 (Minnesota (16), Maryland (27), Michigan State* (40))

Bad losses:  3 (George Mason (112), Albany (145), Rutgers (176))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  176

BPI:  148

Overall record:  13-17

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  0-12

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  2-17

Good wins:  None (Nebraska (84))

Bad losses:  None (Penn State (95))