Sunday, March 05, 2017

Update Championship Week Predictions

Here's what happened in yesterday's Championship Week action:
  • In the OVC final, 4-seed Jacksonville State -- which is located in Jacksonville, Alabama, not Jacksonville, Florida -- beat 2-seed Tennessee-Martin, 66-55, to punch the first ticket to the Big Dance this season and the school's first-ever trip to the NCAA Tournament.  It was heartbreak again for the Skyhwawks, who have lost two years in a row in the OVC title game.
  • In the MVC semis, 1-seed Illinois State and 2-seed Wichita State both easily won their semifinal games.  Both teams are technically on the bubble, but I think both should be in the NCAA Tournament.  The Redbirds will be playing for their 7th NCAA Tournament appearance and first since 1998, while the Shockers will be playing for their 14th appearance and 6th in a row.
  • In the NEC semis, 4-seed St. Francis (PA) beat 3-seed Wagner on a wild last-second 3, to win 71-70, while top seed Mount St. Mary's beat 7-seed Robert Morris, to advance to Tuesday night's final.  The Red Flash will be playing for their 2nd NCAA Tournament berth and first since 1991, while the Mountaineers will be playing for their 5th berth and first since 2014.
  • In the Horizon League, the top two seeds went down in the quarterfinals, as top seed Oakland lost to 9-seed Youngstown State, while 2-seed Valparaiso failed to seize the opportunity, losing to 10-seed Milwaukee.
  • As for other top 4 seeds to lose too early, in the SoCon, 2-seed Furman lost in the quarterfinals to 7-seed Samford.  In the Summit League, the State of Indiana once again asserted its basketball dominance over the State of North Dakota, as 7-seed IUPUI beat 2-seed North Dakota State.
  • 3 bids are up for grabs today:  the Atlantic Sun, the Big South, and the MVC
  • Bubble teams that won today:  Illinois State, Wichita State
  • Bubble teams that lost today:  none
Here are the tournaments starting today, the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments.

Tournaments starting today
-None

Tournaments with games today
-Atlantic Sun
-Big South
-Colonial
-Horizon
-MAAC
-MVC
-SoCon
-Patriot League
-Summit League

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern)
-Big South:  (7) Campbell at (1) Winthrop (1 p.m.; ESPN) 
-Missouri Valley:  (1) Illinois State vs. (2) Wichita State (2:05 p.m.; CBS)
-Atlantic Sun:  (3) North Florida at (1) Florida Gulf Coast (3 p.m.; ESPN)

Already clinched automatic berths (I will add in parentheses the NCAA tournament appearances for each school, including the bid just clinched)
-Ohio Valley:  Jacksonville State (1)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern; to the extent there are teams that have clinched seeds in tournament fields that are not completely set, I will put those in)

AAC (March 9-12; Hartford)
3/9 – First Round
3:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (8) vs. (9)
6 p.m. (ESPNews) (7) vs. (10) Tulane
8 p.m. (ESPNews) (6) vs. (11) South Florida
3/10 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) vs. (8)/(9)
2 p.m. (ESPN2) (4) vs. (5)
7 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) vs. (7)/(10)
9 p.m. (ESPNU) (3) vs. (6)/(11)
3/11 – Semifinals
3 p.m. (ESPN2)
5 p.m. (ESPN2)
3/12 – Finals
3:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Predicted winner:  SMU

ACC (March 7-11; Brooklyn)
3/7 – First Round
12 p.m. (ESPN2) (12) vs. (13)
2 p.m. (ESPN2) (10) vs. (15)
7 p.m. (ESPN2) (11) vs. (14) Boston College
3/8 – Second Round
12 p.m. (ESPN) (8) vs. (9)
2 p.m. (ESPN) (5) vs. (12)/(13)
7 p.m. (ESPN2) (7) vs. (10)/(15)
9 p.m. (ESPN2) (6) vs. (11)/(14)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN) (1) North Carolina vs. (8)/(9)
2 p.m. (ESPN) (4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13)
7 p.m. (ESPN) (2) vs. (7)/(10)
9 p.m. (ESPN) (3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14)
3/10 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2)
9 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2)
3/11 – Finals
9 p.m. (ESPN)
Predicted winner:  Louisville

America East (March 1, 6, 11; campus of higher seeds)
3/6 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN3) (4) UMBC at (1) Vermont.  Predicted winner:  Vermont
7:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (3) Albany at (2) Stony Brook.  Predicted winner:  Stony Brook
3/11 – Finals
11 a.m. (ESPN2) (2) Stony Brook at (1) Vermont.  Predicted winner:  Vermont

Atlantic 10 (March 8-12; Pittsburgh)
3/8 – First Round
6 p.m. (ASN) (12) vs. (13)
8:30 p.m. (ASN) (11) St. Louis vs. (14)
3/9 – Second Round
12 p.m. (NBCSN) (8) vs. (9)
2:30 p.m. (NBCSN) (5) vs. (12)/(13)
6 p.m. (NBCSN) (7) vs. (10)
8:30 p.m. (NBCSN) (6) vs. (11)/(14)
3/10 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (NBCSN) (1) Dayton vs. (8)/(9)
2 p.m. (NBCSN) (4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13)
6 p.m. (NBCSN) (2) vs. (7)/(10)
8:30 p.m. (NBCSN) (3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14)
3/11 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBSSN)
3:30 p.m. (CBSSN)
3/12 – Finals
12:30 p.m. (CBS)
Predicted winner:  Dayton

Atlantic Sun (February 27, March 2, 5; campus of higher seed)
3/5 – Finals
3 p.m. (ESPN) (3) North Florida at (1) Florida Gulf Coast.  Predicted winner:  Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 (March 8-11; Kansas City)
3/8 – First Round
7 p.m. (ESPNU) (8) TCU vs. (9) Oklahoma.  Predicted winner:  TCU
9 p.m. (ESPNU) (7) Texas Tech vs. (10) Texas.  Predicted winner:  Texas Tech
3/9 – Quarterfinals
12:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (4) Iowa State vs. (5) Oklahoma State.  Predicted winner:  Oklahoma State
2:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Kansas vs. (8) TCU.  Predicted winner:  Kansas
7 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) West Virginia vs. (7) Texas Tech.  Predicted winner:  West Virginia
9 p.m. (ESPNU) (3) Baylor vs. (6) Kansas State.  Predicted winner:  Baylor
3/10 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (1) Kansas vs. (5) Oklahoma State.  Predicted winner:  Kansas
9 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2) (2) West Virginia vs. (3) Baylor.  Predicted winner:  Baylor
3/11 – Finals
6 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Kansas vs. (3) Baylor.  Predicted winner:  Kansas

Big East (March 8-11; New York)
3/8 – First Round
7 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (8) St. John's vs. (9) Georgetown
9:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (7) vs. (10) DePaul
3/9 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (1) Villanova vs. (8)/(9)
2:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (4) vs. (5)
7 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (2) Butler vs. (7)/(10)
9:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1) (3) vs. (6)
3/10 – Semifinals
6:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1)
9:30 p.m. (Fox Sports 1)
3/11 – Finals
5:30 p.m. (Fox)
Predicted winner:  Butler

Big Sky (March 7, 9-11; Reno)
3/7 – First Round
5:35 p.m. (Watch Big Sky) (8) vs. (9)
8:35 p.m. (Watch Big Sky) (7) vs. (10)
11:05 p.m. (Watch Big Sky) (6) vs. (11)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
3:05 p.m. (Watch Big Sky) (1) vs. (8)/(9)
5:35 p.m. (Watch Big Sky) (4) vs. (5)
8:35 p.m. (Watch Big Sky) (2) vs. (7)/(10)
11:05 p.m. (Watch Big Sky) (3) vs. (6)/(11)
3/10 – Semifinals
8:35 p.m. (Watch Big Sky)
11:05 p.m. (Watch Big Sky)
3/11 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (ESPNU)
Predicted winner:  Eastern Washington

Big South (February 28, March 2-3, 5; first round at campus sites, quarterfinals and semis at home of #1 seed, finals at home of highest-remaining seed)
3/5 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (7) Campbell at (1) Winthrop.  Predicted winner:  Winthrop

Big Ten (March 8-12; Washington, DC)
3/8 – First Round
4:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (12) vs. (13)
7 p.m. (BTN) (11) vs. (14) Rutgers
3/9 – Second Round
12 p.m. (BTN) (8) vs. (9) Illinois
2:30 p.m. (BTN) (5) vs. (12)/(13)
6:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (7) vs. (10)
9 p.m. (ESPN2) (6) vs. (11)/(14)
3/10 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN) (1) vs. (8)/(9)
2:30 p.m. (ESPN) (4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13)
6:30 p.m. (BTN) (2) vs. (7)/(10)
9 p.m. (BTN) (3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14)
3/11 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (CBS)
3:30 p.m. (CBS)
3/12 – Finals
3 p.m. (CBS)
Predicted winner:  Indiana

Big West (March 9-11; Anaheim)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (Fox Sports West Prime Ticket) (1) vs. (8) UC Riverside
5:30 p.m. (Fox Sports West Prime Ticket) (4) vs. (5)
9 p.m. (Fox Sports West Prime Ticket) (3) vs. (6)
11:30 p.m. (Fox Sports West Prime Ticket) (2) vs. (7)
3/10 – Semifinals
9:30 p.m. (ESPN3/ESPNU – tape delayed) highest remaining seed vs. lowest remaining seed
11:59 p.m. (ESPNU) other two quarterfinal winners
3/11 – Finals
11:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Predicted winner:  UC Irvine

CAA (March 3-6; North Charleston, SC)
3/5 – Semifinals
2 p.m. (Comcast SportsNet) (1) UNC-Wilmington vs. (4) Williamd & Mary.  Predicted winner:  UNC-Wilmington
4:30 p.m. (Comcast SportsNet) (2) Charleston vs. (3) Towson. Predicted winner:  Charleston
3/6 – Finals
7 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) UNC-Wilmington vs. (2) Charleston.  Predicted winner:  UNC-Wilmington

Conference USA (March 8-11; Birmingham, AL)
3/8 – First Round
12:30 p.m. (Campus Insiders) (7) vs. (10)
3 p.m. (Campus Insiders) (6) vs. (11)
7 p.m. (Campus Insiders) (8) vs. (9)
9:30 p.m. (Campus Insiders) (5) vs. (12)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
12:30 p.m. (ASN) (2) Louisiana Tech vs. (7)/(10)
3 p.m. (ASN) (3) vs. (6)/(11)
8 p.m. (ASN) (1) Middle Tennessee State vs. (8)/(9)
9:30 p.m. (ASN) (4) vs. (5)/(12)
3/10 – Semifinals
12:30 p.m. (CBSSN)
3 p.m. (CBSSN)
3/11 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (CBSSN)
Predicted winner:  Middle Tennessee State

Horizon (March 3-7; Detroit)
3/5 - Second Round
5 p.m. (ESPN3) (3) Green Bay vs. (6) Illinois-Chicago.  Predicted winner:  Green Bay
7:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (4) Northern Kentucky vs. (5) Wright State.  Predicted winner:  Wright State
3/6 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPNU) (9) Youngstown State vs. (5) Wright State.  Predicted winner:  Wright State
9:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (10) Milwaukee vs. (3) Green Bay.  Predicted winner:  Green Bay
3/7 – Finals
7 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Green Bay vs. (5) Wright State.  Predicted winner:  Green Bay

Ivy League (March 11-12; Philadelphia)
3/11 – Semifinals
1:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Princeton vs. (4) Penn.  Predicted winner:  Princeton
4 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Harvard vs. (3) Yale.  Predicted winner:  Yale
3/12 – Finals
12 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Princeton vs. (3) Yale.  Predicted winner:  Princeton

MAAC (March 2-6; Albany, NY)
Quarterfinals
3/4
7 p.m. (ESPN3) (3) Iona vs. (6) Rider.  Predicted winner:  Iona
9:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (4) Siena vs. (5) Fairfield.  Predicted winner:  Fairfield
3/5 – Semifinals
4:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) Monmouth vs. (5) Fairfield.  Predicted winner:  Monmouth
7 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) St. Peter's vs. (3) Iona.  Predicted winner:  St. Peter's
3/6 – Finals
9 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Monmouth vs. (2) St. Peter's.  Predicted winner:  Monmouth

MAC (March 6, 9-11; first round at campus of higher seed and remaining rounds in Cleveland)
3/6 – First Round
TBD (12) Miami (OH) at (5) Western Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Western Michigan
TBD (9) Northern Illinois at (8) Eastern Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Eastern Michigan
TBD (10) Bowling Green at (7) Toledo.  Predicted winner:  Toledo
TBD (11) Central Michigan at (6) Kent State.  Predicted winner:  Kent State
3/9 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (Spectrum Sports/BCSN/ESPN3) (1) Akron vs. (8) Eastern Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Akron
2:30 p.m. (Spectrum Sports/BCSN/ESPN3) (4) Ball State vs. (5) Western Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Ball State
6:30 p.m. (Spectrum Sports/BCSN/ESPN3 ) (2) Ohio vs. (7) Toledo.  Predicted winner:  Ohio
9 p.m. (Spectrum Sports/BCSN/ESPN3) (3) Buffalo vs. (6) Kent State.  Predicted winner:  Kent State
3/10 – Semifinals
5:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) Akron vs. (4) Ball State.  Predicted winner:  Akron
8 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) Ohio vs. (6) Kent State.  Predicted winner:  Ohio
3/11 – Finals
7:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Akron vs. (2) Ohio.  Predicted winner:  Akron

MEAC (March 6-11; Norfolk, VA)
First Round
3/6
5 p.m. (5) Maryland-Eastern Shore vs. (12) North Carolina A&T.  Predicted winner:  Maryland-Eastern Shore
7 p.m. (6) Coppin State vs. (11) Howard.  Predicted winner:  Coppin State
3/7
4 p.m. (8) Delaware State vs. (9) Bethune-Cookman.  Predicted winner:  Delaware State
6 p.m. (7) South Carolina State vs. (10) Florida A&M.  Predicted winner:  South Carolina State
Quarterfinals
3/8
6 p.m. (1) North Carolina Central vs. (8) Delaware State.  Predicted winner:  North Carolina Central
8 p.m. (2) Norfolk State vs. (7) South Carolina State.  Predicted winner:  Norfolk State
3/9
6 p.m. (3) Morgan State vs. (6) Coppin State.  Predicted winner:  Morgan State
8 p.m. (4) Hampton vs. (5) Maryland-Eastern Shore.  Predicted winner:  Hampton
3/10 – Semifinals
6:00 p.m. (1) North Carolina Central vs. (4) Hampton.  Predicted winner:  North Carolina Central
8:00 p.m. (2) Norfolk State vs. (3) Morgan State.  Predicted winner:  Norfolk State
3/11 – Final
1:00 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) North Carolina Central vs. (2) Norfolk State.  Predicted winner:  North Carolina Central

Missouri Valley (March 2-5; St. Louis)
3/5 – Finals
2:05 p.m. (CBS) (1) Illinois State vs. (2) Wichita State.  Predicted winner:  Wichita State

Mountain West (March 8-11; Las Vegas)
3/8 – First Round
2 p.m. (Mountain West Network) (8) vs. (9)
4:30 p.m. (Mountain West Network) (7) vs. (10)
7 p.m. (Mountain West Network) (6) vs. (11)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (CBSSN) (1) vs. (8)/(9)
5:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (4) vs. (5)
9 p.m. (CBSSN) (2) vs. (7)/(10)
11:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (3) vs. (6)/(11)
3/10 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (CBSSN)
11:30 p.m. (CBSSN)
3/11 – Finals
6 p.m. (CBS)
Predicted winner:  Colorado State

Northeast Conference (March 1, 4, 7; campus of higher seed)
3/7 – Finals
7 p.m. (ESPN2) (4) St. Francis (PA) at (1) Mount St. Mary's.  Predicted winner:  Mount St. Mary's

Pac-12 (March 8-11; Las Vegas)
3/8 – First Round
3 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (8) vs. (9)
5:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (5) vs. (12) Oregon State
9 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (7) vs. (10)
11:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (6) vs. (11) Washington
3/9 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (1) vs. (8)/(9)
5:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (4) vs. (5)/(12)
9 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (2) vs. (7)/(10)
11:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (3) vs. (6)/(11)
3/10 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (Pac-12 Network)
11:30 p.m. (ESPN)
3/11 – Finals
11 p.m. (ESPN)
Predicted winner:  Oregon

Patriot League (February 28, March 2, 5, 8; campus of higher seed)
3/5 – Semifinals
12 p.m. (CBSSN) (3) Lehigh at (2) Boston University.  Predicted winner:  Lehigh
2 p.m. (CBSSN) (4) Navy at (1) Bucknell.  Predicted winner:  Bucknell
3/8 – Finals
7:30 p.m. (CBSSN) (3) Lehigh at (1) Bucknell.  Predicted winner:  Bucknell

SEC (March 8-12; Nashville)
3/8 – First Round
7 p.m. (SEC Network) (12) Mississippi State vs. (13) LSU
9:30 p.m. (SEC Network) (11) Auburn vs. (14) Missouri
3/9 – Second Round
1 p.m. (SEC Network) (8) vs. (9)
3:30 p.m. (SEC Network) (5) vs. (12)/(13)
7 p.m. (SEC Network) (7) vs. (10)
9:30 p.m. (SEC Network) (6) vs. (11)/(14)
3/10 – Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (SEC Network) (1) vs. (8)/(9)
3:30 p.m. (SEC Network) (4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13)
7 p.m. (SEC Network) (2) vs. (7)/(10)
9:30 p.m. (SEC Network) (3) vs. (6)/(11)
3/11 – Semifinals
1 p.m. (ESPN)
3:30 p.m. (ESPN)
3/12 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN)
Predicted winner:  Kentucky

Southern Conference (March 3-6; Asheville, NC)
3/5 – Semifinals
5 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) UNC-Greensboro v. (5) Wofford.  Predicted winner:  UNC-Greensboro
7:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (7) Samford vs. (3) East Tennessee State.  Predicted winner:  East Tennessee State
3/6 – Finals
7 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) UNC-Greensboro vs. (3) East Tennessee State.  Predicted winner:  East Tennessee State

Southland (March 8-11; Katy, TX)
3/8 – First Round
6 p.m. (ESPN3) (5) vs. (8)
8:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (6) vs. (7) Southeast Louisiana
3/9 – Second Round
6 p.m. (ESPN3) (4) vs. (5)/(8)
8:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (3) vs. (6)/(7)
3/10 – Semifinals
6 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) vs. (4)/(5)/(8)
8:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) vs. (3)/(6)/(7)
3/11 – Finals
9:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Predicted winner:  New Orleans

Summit (March 4-7; Sioux Falls, SD)
3/5 - Quarterfinals
7 p.m. (MidcoSN/ESPN3) (4) South Dakota State vs. (5) Denver.  Predicted winner:  Denver
9:30 p.m. (MidcoSN/ESPN3) (3) Nebraksa-Omaha vs. (6) IPFW.  Predicted winner:  IPFW
3/6 – Semifinals
7 p.m. (MidcoSN/ESPN3) (1) South Dakota vs. (5) Denver.  Predicted winner:  South Dakota
9:30 p.m. (MidcoSN/ESPN3) (7) IUPUI vs. (6) IPFW.  Predicted winner:  IPFW
3/7 – Finals
9 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) South Dakota vs. (6) IPFW.  Predicted winner:  IPFW

Sun Belt (March 8, 10-12; New Orleans)
3/8 – First Round
12:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (8) vs. (9)
3 p.m. (ESPN3) (5) vs. (12)
6 p.m. (ESPN3) (7) vs. (10)
8:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (6) vs. (11)
3/10 – Quarterfinals
12:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) UT-Arlington vs. (8)/(9)
3 p.m. (ESPN3) (4) vs. (5)/(12)
6 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) vs. (7)/(10)
8:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (3) vs. (6)/(11)
3/11 – Semifinals
12:30 p.m. (ESPN3)
3 p.m. (ESPN3)
3/12 – Finals
2 p.m. (ESPN)
Predicted winner:  UT-Arlington

SWAC (March 7, 10-11; quarterfinals at campus of higher seed, remaining games in Houston)
3/7 – Quarterfinals
TBD (8) at (1) Texas Southern
TBD (5) at (4)
TBD (6) at (3)
TBD (7) at (2) 
3/10 – Semifinals
TBD
TBD
3/11 – Finals
TBD (TBD)
Predicted winner:  Texas Southern

WAC (March 9-11; Las Vegas)
3/9 – Quarterfinals
5 p.m. (4) vs. (5)
7:30 p.m. (2) New Mexico State vs. (7) Chicago State
10 p.m. (3) UMKC vs. (6) UT Rio Grande Valley
3/10 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (1) Cal State Bakersfield vs. (4)/(5)
11:30 p.m.
3/11 – Finals
11 p.m. (ESPNU)
Predicted winner:  Cal State Bakersfield

West Coast (March 3-4, 6-7; Las Vegas)
3/6 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Gonzaga vs. (4) Santa Clara.  Predicted winner:  Gonzaga
11:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) St. Mary's vs. (3) BYU.  Predicted winner:  St. Mary's
3/7 - Finals
9 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Gonzaga vs. (2) St. Mary's.  Predicted winner:  Gonzaga

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