Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions and NCAA Tournament Resumes

Wow, what the hell is happening to Wisconsin?  Last night, the Badgers dropped a home game to Iowa, 59-57, to lose their third in a row and five out of their last six.  They have also lost five consecutive games against unranked opponents while being ranked themselves, which ties an all-time record with Tulane (1991-1992), Louisville (1949-1950), and Stanford (1948-1949).  With the win, the Hawkeyes move up from my projected 9-seed in the Big Ten Tournament to the projected 7-seed, and due to tiebreakers, Michigan drops from my projected 6-seed to the projected 8-seed.  Iowa has played its way into the bubble conversation, albeit a longshot to make the Big Dance, but they say it's a weak bubble this year.

Conversely, if the Badgers don't get their shit together, they could fall onto the bubble.  Their RPI has slipped to 43, and they only have 3 RPI Top 50 wins –- the least of any Big Ten team with a winning record (and tied with Nebraska and Penn State for 11th in the Big Ten).  Somewhere, Bo Ryan is berating a waiter at the Tornado Room.  The loss also eliminates Wisconsin from any hope of tying for the Big Ten title, meaning Purdue wins the title outright.  I just threw up a little in my mouth.  And by "a little" I mean "violently and voluminously," and by "in my mouth," I mean "all over my office kitchen and a little in the hallway because I couldn't get to the sink in time.  Also, there's no garbage disposal, so nothing about this is good."

Elsewhere, Minnesota didn't choke at home, beating Nebraska 88-73.

The Big Ten's regular season slate will wrap up this weekend.  There are a couple intriguing matchups:  Michigan State at Maryland on Saturday, and Purdue at Northwestern and Minnesota at Wisconsin on Sunday.

Next games

Here are this weekend's games (all times Eastern):

Saturday

-Indiana at Ohio State (12 p.m.; ESPN)

-Illinois at Rutgers (12 p.m.; ESPNU)

-Michigan State at Maryland (2 p.m.; BTN)

Sunday

-Penn State at Iowa (1 p.m.; BTN)

-Purdue at Northwestern (4:30 p.m.; CBS)

-Minnesota at Wisconsin (6 p.m.; BTN)

-Michigan at Nebraska (8 p.m.; BTN)

Current Standings

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining Big Ten games, and my predictions.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1.  Purdue (13-4):  at Northwestern (L)

2 (tie).  Wisconsin (11-6):  Minnesota (W)

2 (tie).  Maryland (11-6):  Michigan State (W)

2 (tie).  Minnesota (11-6):  at Wisconsin (L)

5 (tie).  Michigan State (10-7):  at Maryland (L)

5 (tie).  Northwestern (10-7):  Purdue (W)

7 (tie).  Michigan (9-8):  at Nebraska (W)

7 (tie).  Iowa (9-8):  Penn State (W)

9.  Illinois (8-9):  at Rutgers (W)

10.  Ohio State (7-10):  Indiana (L)

11.  Nebraska (6-11):  Michigan (L)

12 (tie).  Indiana (6-11):  at Ohio State (W)

12 (tie).  Penn State (6-11):  at Iowa (L)

14.  Rutgers (2-15):  Illinois (L)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Seeding

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place (bold means a team has clinched that seed):

1.  Purdue (13-5)

2.  Wisconsin (12-6) (has tiebreaker over Maryland based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

3.  Maryland (12-6)  

4.  Minnesota (11-7) (has tiebreaker over Northwestern based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

5.  Northwestern (11-7)

6.  Michigan State (10-8) (has tiebreaker over Michigan and Iowa based on 2-1 record vs. other two teams, with Iowa next at 1-1 and Michigan third at 1-2)

7.  Iowa (10-8)

8.  Michigan (10-8)

9.  Illinois (9-9)

10.  Indiana (7-11) (would have tiebreaker over OSU based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

11.  Ohio State (7-11)

12.  Nebraska (6-12) (has tiebreaker over Penn State based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

13.  Penn State (6-12)

14.  Rutgers (2-16)

Big Ten Tournament Schedule

In the past, I have also included far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, but, like the last couple years, I'm not even going to try to do that this year until the seeds are more finalized.  However, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Washington, DC.  All times are Eastern.

Wednesday March 8 – First Round

(12) vs. (13) (4:30 p.m. ESPN2)

(11) vs. (14) Rutgers (7 p.m. BTN)

Thursday March 9 – Second Round

(8) vs. (9) (Noon, BTN)

(5) vs. (12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (6:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11)/(14) (9 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 10 – Quarterfinals

(1) Purdue vs. (8)/(9) (Noon, ESPN)

(4) vs. (5)/(12)/(13) (2:30 p.m., ESPN)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (6:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11)/(14) (9 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 11 – Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12)/(13) (1 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11)/(14) (3:30 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 12 – Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12)/(13) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11)/(14) (3 p.m., CBS)

NCAA Tournament Resumes for All 14 Big Ten Teams

Here is each Big Ten team's NCAA Tournament resume, including each team's RPI (based on ESPN's daily RPI), BPI (based on ESPN's BPI rankings), overall record against D-1 opponents, "good" wins (wins against RPI Top 50 teams or, if none, the team's best win), "bad" losses (losses against teams with an RPI of 101+ or, if none, the team's worst loss).  An * means the game was played on a neutral court, and for the "good" wins and "bad" losses, the team's current RPI is identified.  I have categorized the teams by "In," "Bubble," or "Out," which is my best guess, based on what I know right now, as to whether each team is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, is on the bubble, or is out.  I have also added a record vs. the RPI Top 50 and Top 100.  For the "In" and "Out" teams, I'm putting them in order based on RPI ranking.  For the "Bubble" teams, I am putting them in order based on what I think their likelihood of making the NCAA Tournament is (which may or may not fall in line with the RPI ranking).

In

1.  Minnesota

RPI:  17

BPI:  36

Overall record:  23-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  7-5

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  14-7

Good wins:  7 (at Purdue (20), at Maryland (25), Arkansas (27), UT Arlington (37), at Northwestern (45), Vanderbilt* (47), Michigan (48))

Bad losses:  None (at Penn State (95))

2.  Purdue

RPI:  20

BPI:  12

Overall record:  24-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  6-4

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  14-6

Good wins:  6 (Notre Dame* (22), at Maryland (25), Wisconsin (43), Northwestern (45), at Michigan State (46), Michigan State (46))

Bad losses:  None (at Nebraska (87))

3.  Maryland

RPI:  25

BPI:  44

Overall record:  23-7

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-3

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  14-7

Good wins:  4 (at Minnesota (17), Oklahoma State (29), at Northwestern (45), at Michigan (48))

Bad losses:  None (at Penn State (95))

4.  Wisconsin

RPI:  43

BPI:  20

Overall record:  22-8

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  13-8

Good wins:  3 (at Minnesota (17), Maryland (25), Michigan (48))

Bad losses:  None (Iowa (71))

Bubble

5.  Northwestern

RPI:  45

BPI:  43

Overall record:  21-9

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-6

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  10-9

Good wins:  4 (Dayton* (21), Wake Forest (38), at Wisconsin (43), Michigan (48))

Bad losses:  None (at Indiana (92))

6.  Michigan State

RPI:  46

BPI:  47

Overall record:  18-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  6-7

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  11-11

Good wins:  6 (Minnesota (17), at Minnesota (17), Wichita State* (41), Wisconsin (43), Northwestern (45), Michigan (48))

Bad losses:  1 (Northeastern (123))

7.  Michigan

RPI:  48

BPI:  24

Overall record:  19-11

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  11-11

Good wins:  4 (SMU* (19), Purdue (20), Wisconsin (43), Michigan State (46))

Bad losses:  None (at Iowa (71))

8.  Illinois

RPI:  55

BPI:  62

Overall record:  18-12

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  10-12

Good wins:  5 (VCU* (23), Northwestern (45), at Northwestern (45), Michigan State (46), Michigan (48))

Bad losses:  None (at Penn State (95), Penn State (95))

9.  Iowa

RPI:  71

BPI:  78

Overall record:  17-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  5-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-11

Good wins:  4 (Purdue (20), at Maryland (25), Iowa State (30), at Wisconsin (43), Michigan (48))

Bad losses:  2 (Memphis* (116), Omaha (140))

Out

10.  Ohio State

RPI:  65

BPI:  60

Overall record:  17-13

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-9

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  8-12

Good wins:  4 (Minnesota (17), Wisconsin (43), Michigan State (46), at Michigan (48))

Bad losses:  1 (Florida Atlantic (297))

11.  Nebraska

RPI:  87

BPI:  106

Overall record:  12-17

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-11

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  7-15

Good wins:  3 (Purdue (20), Dayton* (21), at Maryland (25))

Bad losses:  2 (at Rutgers (173), Gardner-Webb (190))

12.  Indiana

RPI:  92

BPI:  31

Overall record:  16-14

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  4-11

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  7-13

Good wins:  3 (Kansas* (2), North Carolina (5), Northwestern (45), Michigan State (46))

Bad losses:  1 (at Fort Wayne (166))

13.  Penn State

RPI:  95

BPI:  85

Overall record:  14-16

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  3-8

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  6-13

Good wins:  3 (Minnesota (17), Maryland (25), Michigan State* (46))

Bad losses:  3 (George Mason (110), Albany (149), Rutgers (173))

14.  Rutgers

RPI:  173

BPI:  146

Overall record:  13-17

Record vs. RPI Top 50:  0-12

Record vs. RPI Top 100:  2-17

Good wins:  None (Nebraska (87))

Bad losses:  None (Penn State (95)