Big Ten Bowl Outlook

This year, I somehow managed to post a weekly look at the Big Ten's bowl chances, so now that we're in the last week of regular season games for the Big Ten, it's now or never.

As we enter Rivalry Week, we know who will be playing in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 2 (Wisconsin and Ohio State), but there is still a lot at stake for most of the Big Ten schools, whether it's bowl eligibility, beating a rival, or just getting a better bowl berth.

This past Saturday, my beloved Hoosiers trounced Rutgers, 41-0, for their first Big Ten shutout since 1993.  The Hoosiers are now 5-6.  Meanwhile, those loathsome Boilermakers upset Iowa at home to get to 5-6.  That means this Saturday's Old Oaken Bucket game in West Lafayette will be for more than just bragging rights.  Whoever wins becomes bowl eligible, and whoever loses will stay home for the holidays.  Meanwhile, Minnesota is also sitting at 5-6, looking to pull a major upset in the battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe with Wisconsin this Saturday.

With their losses last Saturday, Maryland, Nebraska, and Rutgers join Illinois in the ranks of non-bowl-eligible teams.  Nebraska has now lost 5 of its last 6 (and giving up 50+ points in three of those losses), bringing Mike Riley's three-year tenure in Lincoln to an unceremonious end.  The Cornhuskers will miss a bowl for the first time since 2007 (and for the first time since joining the Big Ten in 2011) and for only the third time in the last 47 seasons.  If they lose to Iowa this weekend, they will fall to 4-8, which would be the most losses in a season for Nebraska since 1957.

Here are this past Saturday's results, as well as this coming week's slate of games (rankings are CFP):

Week 12 results:

Indiana 41 Rutgers 0

#5 Wisconsin 24 #24 Michigan 10

#9 Ohio State 52 Illinois 14

#10 Penn State 56 Nebraska 44

#17 Michigan State 17 Maryland 7

#23 Northwestern 39 Minnesota 0

Purdue 24 Iowa 15

Week 13 schedule (times listed are Eastern)

Friday 11/24

Iowa at Nebraska (4 p.m.; FS1)

Saturday 11/25

Indiana at Purdue (12 p.m.; ESPN2)

Ohio State at Michigan (12 p.m.; Fox)

Wisconsin at Minnesota (3:30 p.m.; ABC)

Penn State at Maryland (3:30 p.m.; BTN)

Michigan State at Rutgers (4 p.m.; Fox)

Northwestern at Illinois (4 p.m.; FS1)

Big Ten Bowl Partnerships

Before I delve into my analysis of each Big Ten team's bowl prospects, it makes sense to discuss which bowls are in play.  The Big Ten has partnerships with nearly a dozen bowls, but the selection process can be a bit confusing, as some bowls will only take a Big Ten team in certain years, others won't take a team if that team has played in the bowl within the past few years, and no school can go to the same bowl in consecutive years (not counting the CFP and Rose Bowl).  This is where the Big Ten's bowl determination procedures come into play.

Here is a breakdown of the Big Ten bowl selection hierarchy.  It is important to remember that, for the bowls not involving the champion or CFP rankings, the bowls do not have to choose Big Ten teams by order of finish.  For instance, if a particular bowl has third choice, it is not required to take the third-best Big Ten team.  Anyway, here is my attempt to wade through the muck.

1.  College Football Playoff (Pasadena and New Orleans, 1/1; Atlanta, 1/8)

Obviously, if a Big Ten team finishes the season in the top four of the CFP rankings, it will play in the College Football Playoff.

2.  Cotton Bowl (Dallas, 12/29), Fiesta Bowl (Phoenix, 12/30), or Peach Bowl (Atlanta, 1/1)

If the Big Ten champion does not qualify for the College Football Playoff this year, then it will play in one of these three bowls.  Normally, it would play in the Rose Bowl, but the Rose Bowl is hosting a CFP semifinal game this year.

3.  Orange Bowl (Miami, 12/30) OR Citrus Bowl (Orlando, 1/1)

The Orange Bowl will take the highest-ranked of the Big Ten non-champion teams, SEC teams, or Notre Dame to play an ACC team.  The Big Ten is guaranteed at least three Orange Bowl appearances between the 2014 and 2025 seasons.  Thus far, Michigan (last year) is the only Big Ten team to have played in the Orange Bowl in that span.

If a Big Ten school isn't selected by the Orange Bowl, then the Citrus Bowl gets first choice of the remaining Big Ten teams.  However, five different Big Ten schools must appear in the Citrus Bowl during the six-year agreement, which I think started with the 2014 season. Michigan and Minnesota have appeared in the Citrus Bowl since then.

4.  Outback Bowl (Tampa, 1/1)

Five different Big Ten schools must appear in the Outback Bowl during the six-year agreement, which appears to have started in 2014.  Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Iowa have played in the Outback Bowl since then.

5.  Holiday Bowl (San Diego, 12/28)

Five different Big Ten schools must appear in the Holiday Bowl during the six-year agreement, which started in 2014.  Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Minnesota have played in the Holiday Bowl since then.

6.  Music City Bowl (Nashville, 12/29) OR TaxSlayer Bowl (Jacksonville, 12/30)

The next choice is either the Music City or TaxSlayer Bowl.  During the six-year agreement (which began in 2014), each bowl gets three Big Ten teams, but no Big Ten team can play in each bowl more than once.  Thus far, Nebraska has played in the Music City Bowl, and Iowa and Penn State have played in the TaxSlayer Bowl.

7.  Pinstripe Bowl (Bronx, 12/27)

Six different schools must appear in the Pinstripe Bowl during the six-year agreement, which started in 2014.  Penn State, Indiana, and Northwestern have played in the Pinstripe Bowl since then.

8.  Foster Farms Bowl (Santa Clara, 12/27)

Five different Big Ten schools must appear in the Foster Farms Bowl during the six-year agreement, which started in 2014.  Maryland, Nebraska, and Indiana have played in the Foster Farms Bowl since then.

9.  Quick Lane Bowl (Detroit, 12/26)

There is no limitation on the Quick Lane Bowl, other than the team must be bowl-eligible.  Since the bowl was founded in 2014, Rutgers, Minnesota, and Maryland have played in it.

10.  Heart of Dallas Bowl (Dallas, 12/26)

The Big Ten has an alternating tie-in with the Armed Forces Bowl and Heart of Dallas Bowl.  This year, the Heart of Dallas Bowl is up.  Like the Quick Lane Bowl, there is no limitation, other than bowl eligibility.  Illinois is the only Big Ten team that has played in the Heart of Dallas Bowl since the current agreement went into place in 2014.

Big Ten Bowl Outlook

Let's take a look at the bowl chances of each Big Ten team who is still eligible.  I'll list each team's current record (overall and conference), and then I'll break down each team's (1) remaining game and whether it is a likely win, loss, or toss-up, (2) analysis of the team, (4) how many more games they need to win to become bowl-eligible, where applicable, and (5) for those teams that have clinched a bowl, the realistic best and worst-case bowl scenarios.  For sake of ease, I'm just going to go in alphabetical order.

1.  Indiana

Record:  5-6 (3-5)

Remaining game:  Purdue (11/25) (likely win)

Analysis:  As I mentioned above, IU dominated Rutgers last weekend in Bloomington, setting up a trip to West Lafayette with bowl eligibility on the line.  A win would mean the Hoosiers' third straight bowl game, which they haven't done since 1986-1988.  It would also mean a five-game winning streak for IU over Purdue, which would be the Hoosiers' longest winning streak against the Boilers in their 120-game rivalry.  Purdue is vastly improved this year, but I think the Hoosiers can squeak out a victory in that glorified high school stadium they call Ross-Ade.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  1

2.  Iowa

Record:  6-5 (3-5)

Remaining game:  at Nebraska (11/24) (likely win)

Analysis:  Iowa is hard to figure out.  One week, they are dropping 55 points on Ohio State and then two weeks later, they are scoring only 15 points en route to losing to Purdue at home on Senior Day.  At least they are already bowl eligible.

Best case bowl scenario:  Pinstripe Bowl

Worst case bowl scenario:  Heart of Dallas Bowl

3.  Michigan

Record:  8-3 (5-3)

Remaining game:  Ohio State (11/25) (likely loss)

Analysis:  Another week, another Wolverines QB injured.  With Ohio State coming to Ann Arbor this weekend, it's not great timing for Michigan.  Perhaps, they can rally to pull off an upset, but I wouldn't bank on it.

Best case bowl scenario:  Outback Bowl

Worst case bowl scenario:  Music City Bowl or TaxSlayer Bowl

4.  Michigan State

Record:  8-3 (6-2)

Remaining game:  at Rutgers (11/25) (likely win)

Analysis:  After a down season last year in which Sparty didn't go to a bowl, Michigan State bounced back this year and should win 9 games with only Rutgers left on the slate.

Best case bowl scenario:  Citrus Bowl

Worst case bowl scenario:  Pinstripe Bowl

5.  Minnesota

Record:  5-6 (2-6)

Remaining game:  Wisconsin (11/25) (likely loss)

Probable win total:  5

Analysis:  Barring a major upset on Saturday, it looks like the Gophers' streak of five consecutive bowl games will come to an end.  After starting out 3-0, Minnesota has lost 6 of 8, scoring more than 24 points only twice in the process.  Then again, it is Paul Bunyan's Axe up for grabs on Saturday, so the Gophers may put together an emotional win at home.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  1

6.  Northwestern

Record:  8-3 (6-2)

Remaining game:  at Illinois (11/25) (likely win)

Analysis:  The Wildcats continue to chug along as a formidable Big Ten team, already clinching their eighth bowl of the Pat Fitzgerald era.  Fitzgerald has already taken the Wildcats to more bowls than all other coaches in Northwestern history combined.  With lowly Illinois up next, Northwestern should win 9+ games for the fourth time under Fitzgerald and eighth time in school history.

Best case bowl scenario:  Citrus Bowl

Worst case bowl scenario:  Music City Bowl or TaxSlayer Bowl

7.  Ohio State

Record:  9-2 (7-1)

Remaining game:  at Michigan (11/25) (likely win)

Analysis:  The 2-loss Buckeyes are still trying to sneak in the back door of the College Football Playoff, but they have to beat Michigan in Ann Arbor this Saturday and then Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game next Saturday (and some other teams will have to lose).  Most importantly, they can't look past the Wolverines to next weekend -- not that the Ohio State-Michigan game could ever be a trap game.

Best case bowl scenario:  College Football Playoff

Worst case bowl scenario:  Citrus Bowl

8.  Penn State

Record:  9-2 (6-2)

Remaining game:  at Maryland (11/25) (likely win)

Analysis:  The Nittany Lions are looking for their second consecutive 10+-win season, which hasn't happened since 2009-2009.  With Maryland up next, it should be doable.

Best case bowl scenario:  Orange Bowl

Worst case bowl scenario:  Holiday Bowl

9.  Purdue

Record:  5-6 (3-5)

Remaining game:  Indiana (11/25) (likely loss)

Analysis:  Fuck Purdue.

Number of wins still needed to become bowl-eligible:  1

10.  Wisconsin

Record:  11-0 (8-0)

Remaining game:  at Minnesota (11/25) (likely win)

Analysis:  The Badgers are 11-0 for the first time in school history, and only two games stand between them and a CFP berth.  Like Ohio State, Wisconsin can't look past this weekend to the Big Ten Championship game, especially since Minnesota needs a win to become bowl-eligible.

Best case bowl scenario:  College Football Playoff

Worst case bowl scenario:  Citrus Bowl