Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Undefeated After Week 11

Last night, the latest College Football Playoff rankings came out, after an epic weekend in college football, where we saw two of the top three teams (Georgia and Notre Dame) get curb stomped, and #2 Alabama squeaked out a late victory at Mississippi State.

Unsurprisingly, Alabama now sits at the top of the rankings.  Clemson is #2, Miami is #3, and Oklahoma is #4, with undefeated Wisconsin lurking at #5.  The selection committee's rankings are released each Tuesday evening, so I'll be taking a look at the remaining undefeated teams for the next few Wednesdays.  I got a little bit of a later start this year than I had in years' past, but better late than never.

There are only four undefeated teams left in the FBS:  Alabama, Miami, Wisconsin, and Central Florida.

If Central Florida remains undefeated, assuming they are the highest-ranked non-Power Five team (which they are as of now), the worst the Golden Knights could do is go to a BCS bowl.

Looking at the remaining games, none of the undefeated teams has a cakewalk, and it's not out of the question that all four will lose before the end of the regular season. 
-While Alabama has its usual late-season FCS matchup (Mercer) this weekend, the Crimson Tide have to travel to #6 Auburn next weekend for the Iron Bowl and, if they win that, they will play #7 Georgia in the SEC Championship game.  Alabama's schedule thus far has been relatively weak, so they haven't been as battle-tested as they might usually be this time of year. 
-Miami has the easiest path of these four teams, as the Hurricanes have two very winnable games against Virginia and Pitt before playing #2 Clemson in the ACC Championship game. 
-Wisconsin has had a pretty light schedule this year, which explains why they are undefeated, but still looking in from the outside of the CFP Top 4.  They play #24 Michigan this week before traveling to Minneapolis to play Minnesota next week for Paul Bunyan's Axe.  The Badgers' opponent in the Big Ten Championship game has not yet been determined, but it will be Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, or Michigan. 
-UCF plays at Temple (last year's AAC champion) this weekend before facing 8-1 South Florida next weekend.  Assuming they win those games, they will have a rematch with #21 Memphis in the AAC Championship game.

Here are the top 4 teams in the CFP ranking, along with each team's best win and worst loss, where applicable:
1.  Alabama (10-0)
Best win:  at #16 Mississippi State (11/11; 31-24)
Worst loss:  N/A
2.  Clemson (9-1)
Best win:  #6 Auburn (9/9; 14-6)
Worst loss:  at Syracuse (10/13; 27-24)
3.  Miami (9-0)
Best win:  #8 Notre Dame (11/11; 41-8)
Worst loss: N/A
4.  Oklahoma (9-1)
Best win:  at #9 Ohio State (9/9; 31-16)
Worst loss:  Iowa State (10/7; 38-31)

Here is a breakdown of the remaining undefeated teams and each team's remaining games (rankings are CFB Playoff Committee rankings):

#1 Alabama 10-0
11/18 – Mercer (FCS) (5-5)
11/25 – at #6 Auburn (8-2)
12/2 – SEC championship game (Atlanta) - #7 Georgia (9-1)

Remaining opponents' combined record:  22-8 (.733)
Best win:  at #16 Mississippi State (11/11; 31-24)

#3 Miami 9-0
11/8 – Virginia (6-4)
11/24 – at Pittsburgh (4-6)
12/2 – ACC championship game (Charlotte) - #2 Clemson (9-1)

Remaining opponents' combined record:  19-11 (.633)
Best win:  #8 Notre Dame (11/11; 41-8)

#5 Wisconsin 10-0
11/18 – #24 Michigan (8-2)
11/25 – at Minnesota (5-5)
12/2 – Big Ten championship game (Indianapolis) - TBD

Remaining opponents' combined record:  13-7 (.650)
Best win:  #23 Northwestern (9/30; 33-24)

#15 Central Florida 9-0
11/18 – at Temple (5-5)
11/24 – South Florida (8-1)
12/2 – AAC championship game (TBD) - TBD

Remaining opponents' combined record:  13-6 (.684)
Best win:  #21 Memphis (9/30; 40-13)

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