Bowl Scenarios, Part II

Well, IU beat the Purdouchebags, securing a 7-5 record and Coach Hoeppner's dream of playing a thirteenth game. But where, you ask? Loyal reader, that's what I'm trying to figure out myself.

Here are the final Big Ten standings (with the teams' Big Ten records and overall records):
1. Ohio State, 7-1, 11-1
2 (tie). Michigan, 6-2, 8-4
2 (tie). Illinois, 6-2, 9-3
4. Wisconsin, 5-3, 9-3
5 (tie). Penn State, 4-4, 8-4
5 (tie). Iowa, 4-4, 6-6
7 (tie). Indiana, 3-5, 7-5
7 (tie). Michigan State, 3-5, 7-5
7 (tie). Purdue, 3-5, 7-5
7 (tie). Northwestern, 3-5, 6-6
11. Minnesota, 0-8, 1-11

For those of you who don't know, here are the Big Ten bowl tie-ins:
1 - Rose
2 - Capital One
3 - Outback
4/5 - Alamo
4/5 - Champs Sports
6 - Insight
7 - Motor City

Ohio State (currently 5th in the BCS) will go to the Rose Bowl (unless several losses occur and it ends up playing in the BCS title game). However, for the remainder of the Big Ten's bowl, the finishing place does not necessarily correspond with the bowl game because all it means is that the respective bowls get to select Big Ten teams in that order. Thus, the Outback bowl doesn't have to choose the 3rd place Big Ten team; it just gets 3rd choice of the Big Ten's bowl-eligible teams. In addition, a bowl must choose a 7-5 team over a 6-6 team, regardless of the teams' finishing position. Thus, IU, MSU, and Purdue must be chosen before Iowa, even though Iowa finished with a better Big Ten record.

Currently, CBS Sportsline, SI.com, CollegeFootballNews.com, and the Chicago Tribune have IU going to the Insight Bowl. ESPN.com's bowl projections don't come out until Tuesday, but last week they had IU going to the Motor City Bowl.

Bowl bids will likely not be given out until the first week of December, after the BCS bowl bids are handed out. Thus, we have 2 weeks to speculate.

Also, bowl-eligible teams that do not finish in the top seven of the Big Ten standings have a chance to go to non-Big-Ten-affiliated bowls if there are not enough bowl-eligible teams from the conferences affiliated with those bowls. For instance, the #6 team from the Pac-10 goes to the Armed Forces Bowl, but if there are only 5 bowl-eligible teams from the Pac-10, then the Armed Forces Bowl can give a bid to any bowl-eligible team. In addition to the Armed Forces Bowl, here are a couple other bowls that may have open slots:
-International Bowl (Big East vs. MAC)
-Texas Bowl (Big 12 #8 vs. C-USA #6)
-Independence (Big 12 #7 vs. SEC)
-Humanitarian (WAC vs. ACC #8)
-Las Vegas (Pac-10 #5 vs. MWC #1)

With respect to the BCS bowls, the champions of selected conferences are contractually committed to certain bowls, unless they are # 1 or 2 in the BCS: ACC - Orange; Big Ten - Rose; Big 12 - Fiesta; Pac-10 - Rose; SEC - Sugar). If a BCS bowl loses a host team to the title game, then the bowl gets first choice at a replacement team. Non-BCS schools can earn bids if ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings or ranked ahead of a BCS conference champ.

The main thing that IU has to worry about now are 7-5 teams that have been shut out of their conference bowl slots. Currently there are 14 teams that are either 6-4, 6-5, or 5-5 (as well as Western Kentucky, which is an Independent and 7-4), all of which can still possibly become 7-5 and put themselves into the at-large mix.

Here are the leagues that have bowl tie-ins that might not have enough bowl-eligible teams, and the teams that are bowl eligible or that can still become bowl eligible (i.e., these are the teams you should all be rooting against in hopes that IU goes to a bowl):

ACC (8 bowl tie-ins)
7 bowl eligible: Virginia (9-2), Virginia Tech (9-2), BC (9-2), Clemson (8-3), Wake Forest (7-4), FSU (7-4), Georgia Tech (7-4)
3 teams that can become bowl eligible (with remaining games):
NC State - 5-6 (Maryland 11/24)
Miami (FL) - 5-6 (at BC 11/24)
Maryland - 5-6 (at NC State 11/24)
0 more teams that can become 7-5

The ACC will get at least one more bowl-eligible team because NC State and Maryland play each other. Thus, unless the ACC gets 2 BCS berths (which is unlikely), all of the ACC's bowl slots will be taken. However, they will not have any 7-5 at-large teams. If you're wondering -- and I know you are -- the last time IU had a better record than Miami was 1979.

Big East (6 bowl tie-ins, although 2 are shared with the Big 12)
5 bowl eligible: Connecticut (9-2), West Virginia (9-1), Cincinnati (8-3), South Florida (8-3), Rutgers (7-4)
2 teams that can become bowl eligible (with remaining games)
Pittsburgh - 4-6 (South Florida 11/24; at West Virginia 12/1)
Louisville - 5-6 (Rutgers 11/29)
0 more teams that can become 7-5

The winner of this Saturday's UConn/West Virginia game will go to the BCS, leaving 5 slots for 4 teams. Pittsburgh will likely lose at least one of its final two games. Louisville has a very tough home game against Rutgers to clinch a bowl berth. The five current bowl-eligible teams are the only teams from the Big East likely to go to a bowl. As noted above, the Big East and Big 12 share some bowl affiliations (the Sun Bowl and the Gator Bowl). The Sun Bowl can choose a Big 12 team twice or a Big East team (or Notre Dame, but that's not an issue) twice between 2006 and 2009. The Gator Bowl can also choose a Big East team, a Big 12 team, or Notre Dame, but doesn't appear to have any restrictions on who it chooses.

Big 12 (8 bowl tie-ins)
7 bowl eligible: Kansas (11-0), Missouri (10-1), Oklahoma (9-2), Texas (9-2), Texas Tech (8-4), Texas A&M (6-5), Oklahoma State (6-5)
4 teams that can become bowl eligible (with remaining games):
Kansas State - 5-6 (at Fresno State 11/24)
Colorado - 5-6 (Nebraska 11/23)
Nebraska - 5-6 (at Colorado 11/23)
2 teams that can become 7-5 (with remaining games):
Texas A&M (Texas 11/23)
Oklahoma State (at Oklahoma 11/24)

Between Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma, the Big 12 will likely get 2 BCS bids, which will leave 7 other bowls for 5 currently bowl-eligible teams and the 3 other possibly bowl-eligible teams. The winner of the Colorado/Nebraska game will go to a bowl, while the loser will not. If K-State loses to Fresno State (which is currently 6-4), then the Texas Bowl will be able to take an at-large team. Given that Texas A&M and Oklahoma State are already slated to go to bowls, and that there will not be more teams from the Big 12 than bowl slots, there is no worry about 7-5 at-large teams from the Big 12. In case you're wondering -- and I know you are -- the last time IU had a better record than Nebraska was 1968.

Conference USA (6 bowl tie-ins)
6 bowl eligible: UCF (8-3), Tulsa (8-3), Houston (7-4), East Carolina (6-5), Memphis (6-5), Southern Miss (6-5)
0 teams that can become bowl eligible.

C-USA will fill all 6 of its slots with no extra at-large teams.

Independents
2 bowl eligible: Navy (7-4), Western Kentucky (7-4)
0 teams that can become bowl eligible or 7-5.

Navy has already accepted a bid to the Poinsettia Bowl. Western Kentucky will not likely get a bowl bid, despite its 87-0 drubbing of West Virginia Tech in Week 2. If you're wondering -- and I know you are -- the last time IU had a better record than Notre Dame was 1986.

MAC (3 bowl tie-ins):
4 bowl eligible: Bowling Green (7-4), Central Michigan (6-5), Miami (OH) (6-5), Ball State (6-5)
2 teams that can become bowl eligible (with remaining games):
Toledo - 5-6 (at Bowling Green 11/23)
Ohio - 5-6 (Miami (OH) 11/24)
3 teams that can become 7-5 (with remaining games):
Central Michigan (at Akron 11/23)
Miami (OH) (at Ohio 11/24)
Ball State (at Northern Illinois 11/24)

The MAC will get its 3 bowl-eligible teams, and if all 3 6-5 teams win their final games (which is very possible), then the MAC will have one 7-5 at-large team. There is not much worry, however, because it is highly unlikely that a MAC school would get an at-large bowl berth over a BCS conference school.

Mountain West (4 bowl tie-ins)
5 bowl eligible: BYU (8-2), Air Force (9-3), Utah (8-3), New Mexico (7-4), TCU (6-5)
2 teams that can become bowl eligible (with remaining games):
San Diego St. - 4-6 (TCU 11/24; BYU 12/1)
Wyoming - 5-6 (at Colorado State 11/23)
1 team that can become 7-5 (with remaining game)
TCU (at SDSU 11/24)

The MWC will have more than its 4 bowl-eligible teams, but only one possible at-large 7-5 team (if TCU wins its final game). If TCU does win, there is the possibility that one of the bowls in Texas would take them. The Armed Forces Bowl is played on their home field (I think), and the Texas Bowl is just down I-45 in Houston.

Pac-10 (6 bowl tie-ins)
5 bowl eligible: Arizona State (9-1), Oregon (8-2), USC (8-2), Oregon State (7-4), Cal (6-5)
2 teams that can become bowl eligible (with remaining games)
UCLA - 5-5 (Oregon 11/24; at USC 12/1)
Arizona - 5-6 (at Arizona State 12/1)
2 teams that can become 7-5 (with remaining games)
Cal (at Stanford 12/1)
UCLA (see above)

UCLA and Arizona will likely lose their remaining games, knocking them out of bowl contention. Thus, there will only be 5 bowl-eligible teams from the Pac-10, with possibly 2 BCS bids between Oregon, Arizona State, and USC. If the Pac-10 gets 2 BCS bids, that will leave 3 teams for 5 slots, thus opening the Las Vegas Bowl and the Armed Forces Bowl for at-large bids. Obviously, since the Pac-10 will not be able to fill its bowl slots, there is no worry about 7-5 at-large teams.

SEC (8 bowl tie-ins)
10 bowl eligible: LSU (10-1), Georgia (9-2), Florida (8-3), Tennessee (8-3), Kentucky (7-4), Auburn (7-4), Arkansas (7-4), South Carolina (6-5), Alabama (6-5), Mississippi State (6-5)
1 team that can become bowl eligible (with remaining game):
Vanderbilt - 5-6 (Wake Forest 11/24)
3 teams that can become 7-5 (with remaining games)
South Carolina (Clemson 11/24)
Alabama (at Auburn 11/24)
Mississippi State (Ole Miss 11/23)

The SEC will likely get 2 BCS bids (probably LSU and Georgia), leaving 7 bowl slots for 8 bowl-eligible teams. Even if all of the teams that can become 7-5 do so, then only 1 or 2 SEC teams would be at-large and 7-5 (depending on whether 2 SEC teams get BCS bids). Most likely, though, Alabama will lose to Auburn, dropping them out of the at-large mix. Mississippi State should Ole Miss. South Carolina/Clemson will be a good game as always. If the Gamecocks win, that will put them at 7-5, leaving Alabama as the only at-large team in the SEC, but the Tide will be 6-6, so it won't matter. If you're wondering -- and I know you are -- the last time IU had a better record than Alabama was 1987 (not counting 1993, when Alabama's 9-3 record was wiped out due to NCAA sanctions).

Sun Belt (1 bowl tie-in)
1 bowl eligible: Troy (7-3)
1 team that can become 7-5 (with remaining games):
Florida Atlantic 5-5 (at FIU 11/24; at Troy 12/1)

Not that we would need to worry about an at-large FAU team, but it looks like they won't get to 7 wins anyway.

WAC (3 bowl tie-ins):
3 bowl-eligible: Hawaii (10-0), Boise State (10-1), Fresno State (6-4)
2 teams that can become bowl eligible (with remaining games):
Nevada - 5-5 (at San Jose State 11/24; Louisiana Tech 12/1)
Louisiana Tech - 5-6 (San Jose State 11/17; at Nevada 12/1)
2 teams that can become 7-5 (with remaining games)
Fresno State (Kansas State 11/24; at New Mexico State 11/30)
Nevada (see above)

If Hawaii finishes undefeated and goes to a BCS bowl, that will free up a WAC bowl if they don't have 3 other bowl-eligible teams, meaning that the WAC's bowl slots will be full if Nevada or La Tech wins a 6th game. Given that they play each other, it is mathematically impossible for both teams to end up at 5-7. If Nevada and Fresno State finish 7-5, one of them would be a 7-5 at-large team. As with the MAC, it is unlikely a bowl would give a berth to a WAC team over a BCS conference team.

In case you're wondering -- and I know you are -- the last time IU had a better record than Alabama, Miami (FL), Nebraska, and Notre Dame all in the same season was 1967, when IU went to the Rose Bowl and finished with a 9-2 record, while Alabama went 8-2-1, Miami went 7-4, Nebraska went 6-4, and Notre Dame went 8-2.