Monday, February 25, 2013

Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions

Thus far, my predictions are holding true, due in large part to the fact I invented a time machine, went back to 16th Century France, and kidnapped Nostradamus.  That guy is like over 90% predicting Big Ten regular season games.  Only five teams are still eligible to win a share of the Big Ten title:  IU, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State.  Michigan State's loss at Ohio State gives IU at least a two-game lead on everyone else in the Big Ten, as the Hoosiers look to clinch their first outright Big Ten title since 1993.  There are some big games this week, with IU traveling to Minnesota tomorrow night (7 ET, ESPN) and Michigan State traveling to Ann Arbor Sunday (4 ET, CBS).  If the Hoosiers can beat the Gophers tomorrow and then beat Iowa on Saturday, they will clinch at least a share of the regular season crown.

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining games, and my predictions:

1.  Indiana (12-2):  at Minnesota (W), Iowa (W), OSU (W), at Michigan (L)
2.  Michigan State (11-4):  at Michigan (L), Wisconsin (W), NW (W)
3 (tie).  Wisconsin (10-4):  Nebraska (W), Purdue (W), at MSU (L), at PSU (W)
3 (tie).  Michigan (10-4):  at PSU (W), MSU (W), at Purdue (W), IU (W)
5.  Ohio State (10-5):  at NW (W), at IU (L), Illinois (W)
6.  Illinois (7-8):  Nebraska (W), at Iowa (W), at OSU (L)
7 (tie).  Minnesota (6-8):  IU (L), PSU (W), at Nebraska (W), at Purdue (W)
7 (tie).  Iowa (6-8):  Purdue (W), at IU (L), Illinois (L), Nebraska (W)
7 (tie).  Purdue (6-8):  at Iowa (L), at Wisconsin (L), Michigan (L), Minnesota (L)
10.  Northwestern (4-11):  OSU (L), PSU (W), at MSU (L)
11.  Nebraska (4-10):  at Wisconsin (L), at Illinois (L), Minnesota (L), at Iowa (L)
12.  Penn State (0-14):  Michigan (L), at Minnesota (L), at NW (L), Wisconsin (L)

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place and how the Big Ten Tournament will play out (all times are Central):

1.  Indiana (15-3)
2.  Michigan (14-4)
3.  Michigan State (13-5) (would have tiebreaker based on 2-0 record vs. Wisconsin)
4.  Wisconsin (13-5)
5.  Ohio State (12-6)
6.  Illinois (9-9) (would have tiebreaker over Minnesota based on better record vs. IU than Minnesota)
7.  Minnesota (9-9)
8.  Iowa (8-10)
9.  Purdue (6-12)
10.  Northwestern (5-13)
11.  Nebraska (4-14)
12.  Penn State (0-18)

Thursday, March 14, 2013
(8) Iowa vs. (9) Purdue (11 a.m., BTN).  Projected winner:  Iowa
(5) Ohio State vs. (12) Penn State (1:30 p.m., BTN).  Projected winner:  Ohio State
(7) Minnesota vs. (10) Northwestern (5:30 p.m., ESPN2).  Projected winner:  Minnesota
(6) Illinois vs. (11) Nebraska (8 p.m., ESPN2).  Projected winner:  Illinois

Friday, March 15, 2013
(1) IU vs. (8) Iowa (11 a.m., ESPN).  Projected winner:  IU
(4) Wisconsin vs. (5) Ohio State (1:30 p.m., ESPN).  Projected winner:  Ohio State
(2) Michigan vs. (7) Minnesota (5:30 p.m., BTN).  Projected winner:  Michigan
(3) Michigan State vs. (6) Illinois (8 p.m., BTN).  Projected winner:  Michigan State

Saturday, March 16, 2013
(1) IU vs. (5) Ohio State (12:40 p.m., CBS).  Projected winner:  IU
(2) Michigan vs. (3) Michigan State (3 p.m., CBS).  Projected winner:  Michigan State

Sunday, March 17, 2013
(1) IU vs. (3) Michigan State (2:30 p.m., CBS).  Projected winner:  IU

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