Friday, March 08, 2013

Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions

Last night, Michigan State knocked Wisconsin out of the running for a share of the Big Ten title.  In doing so, that clinched the #1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament for IU.  Thus, the IU/Michigan game on Sunday will not be quite as climactic, but a win for IU would still mean an outright Big Ten title and would all but wrap up a #1 seed for the NCAA Tournament.  Meanwhile, a win by Michigan would mean they would claim a share of the Big Ten regular season title.  There are still a bunch of seed positions still up in the air, so this weekend should be fun to watch.  I love March.

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining games, and my predictions:
1.  Indiana (13-4):  at Michigan (L)
2 (tie).  Ohio State (12-5):  Illinois (W)
2 (tie).  Michigan (12-5):  IU (W)
2 (tie).  Michigan State (12-5):  NW (W)
5.  Wisconsin (11-6):  at PSU (W)
6 (tie).  Minnesota (8-9):  at Purdue (W)
6 (tie).  Illinois (8-9):  at OSU (L)
6 (tie).  Iowa (8-9):  Nebraska (W)
9.  Purdue (7-10):  Minnesota (L)
10.  Nebraska (5-12):  at Iowa (L)
11.  Northwestern (4-13):  at MSU (L)
12.  Penn State (2-15):  Wisconsin (L)

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place and how the Big Ten Tournament will play out (all times are Central).  An asterisk indicates that the seed position is clinched:

*1.  Indiana (13-5)
2.  Ohio State (13-5) (would have tiebreaker over Michigan even though both teams have 3-3 record vs. other 3 tied teams based on better record vs. Wisconsin)
3.  Michigan (13-5)
4.  Michigan State (13-5) (would get the #4 seed based on 2-4 record vs. IU, Michigan, and OSU)
5.  Wisconsin (12-6)
6.  Minnesota (9-9) (would have tiebreaker over Iowa based on better record vs. IU)
7.  Iowa (9-9)
8.  Illinois (8-10)
9.  Purdue (7-11)
*10.  Nebraska (5-13)
*11.  Northwestern (4-14)
*12.  Penn State (2-16)

Thursday, March 14, 2013
(8) Illinois vs. (9) Purdue (11 a.m., BTN).  Projected winner:  Illinois
(5) Ohio State vs. (12) Penn State (1:30 p.m., BTN).  Projected winner:  Ohio State
(7) Iowa vs. (10) Nebraska (5:30 p.m., ESPN2).  Projected winner:  Iowa
(6) Minnesota vs. (11) Northwestern (8 p.m., ESPN2).  Projected winner:  Minnesota

Friday, March 15, 2013
(1) IU vs. (8) Illinois (11 a.m., ESPN).  Projected winner:  IU
(4) Michigan State vs. (5) Wisconsin (1:30 p.m., ESPN).  Projected winner:  Michigan State
(2) Ohio State vs. (7) Iowa (5:30 p.m., BTN).  Projected winner:  Ohio State
(3) Michigan vs. (6) Minnesota (8 p.m., BTN).  Projected winner:  Michigan

Saturday, March 16, 2013
(1) IU vs. (4) Michigan State (12:40 p.m., CBS).  Projected winner:  IU
(2) Ohio State vs. (3) Michigan (3 p.m., CBS).  Projected winner:  Michigan

Sunday, March 17, 2013
(1) IU vs. (3) Michigan (2:30 p.m., CBS).  Projected winner:  IU

No comments: