Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Updated Championship Week Predictions


We're almost halfway through the automatic bids, as Bucknell beat Lafayette for the Patriot League title.  It seems like Bucknell is always in the tournament, but this is actually only their sixth Big Dance.  The Patriot League champion has been known to be a tough out in the NCAA Tournament, as Duke found out last year with Lehigh, Kansas found out in 2005 with Bucknell, and the whole damn country found out in 1947 with Holy Cross.  Just so we're clear, Holy Cross has won more NCAA championships than Purdue and Illinois combined.

Meanwhile, in a major upset –- as much as there can be a major upset in the MEAC –- 8-seed Bethune-Cookman beat 1-seed Norfolk State.  As you may recall, Norfolk State beat 2-seed Missouri as a 15-seed in last year's NCAA Tournament.  Along with Memphis and Gonzaga, Norfolk State was one of only three teams to go undefeated in conference play during the regular season, going 16-0 in the MEAC.  And then in the next game, the MEAC's 2-seed, North Carolina Central, which was 15-1 in conference play, lost to 7-seed North Carolina A&T.  Madness! 

On the opposite end of the happiness spectrum, Grambling lost in the first round of the SWAC tournament to finish the season 0-28, the first winless season for a full D-1 member since 2004-2005, and only the eighth D-1 team to lose all of its games in a season (with a minimum of ten games).  The Tigers did, however, save some face by keeping their losing margin to eight points –- the first time all season they have not lost by double digits.  Sadness!

There are no more championship games until Saturday, but tomorrow, all of the remaining conference tournaments start.  There will be 45 college basketball games tomorrow, and every single one of them means something.  The Big Ten Tournament will start with a bang with the toughest 8/9 matchup in the country, as two teams that at one time were ranked in the Top 10, Illinois and Minnesota, will meet at Noon Eastern on the Big Ten Network.

Here is who has already clinched an automatic berth, as well as my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments.  (Note:  The Great West Conference holds a tournament, but does not receive an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, so I am not including it here.)

Already clinched automatic berths (I added in parentheses the number of NCAA tournament appearances, including the bid just clinched):
Atlantic Sun:  Florida Gulf Coast (1)
Big South:  Liberty (3)
Colonial:  James Madison (5)
Horizon:  Valparaiso (8)
Ivy League:  Harvard (3)
MAAC:  Iona (10)
MVC:  Creighton (18)
NEC:  LIU-Brooklyn (6)
OVC:  Belmont (6)
Patriot:  Bucknell (6)
Southern:  Davidson
Summit:  South Dakota State (2)
Sun Belt:  Western Kentucky (23)
West Coast:  Gonzaga (16)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern):

ACC (March 14-17; Greensboro)
3/14 – First Round
12 p.m. (ESPNU) (8) Boston College vs. (9) Georgia Tech.  Winner:  Georgia Tech
2 p.m. (ESPNU) (5) NC State vs. (12) Virginia Tech.  Winner:  NC State
7 p.m. (ESPNU) (7) Maryland vs. (10) Wake Forest.  Winner:  Maryland
9 p.m. (ESPNU) (6) Florida State vs. (11) Clemson.  Winner:  Florida
3/15 - Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Miami vs. (9) Georgia Tech.  Winner:  Miami
2 p.m. (ESPN2) (4) Virginia vs. (5) NC State.  Winner:  NC State
7 p.m. (ESPN2) (2) Duke vs. (7) Maryland.  Winner:  Duke
9 p.m. (ESPN2) (3) North Carolina vs. (6) Florida State
3/16 - Semifinals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Miami vs. (5) NC State.  Winner:  Miami
3 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Duke vs. (3) North Carolina.  Winner:  Duke
3/17 - Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Miami vs. (2) Duke.  Winner:  Duke

America East (March 9-10, 16; Albany, then the highest remaining seed hosts final)
Finals – 3/16
11:30 a.m. (ESPN2) (4) Albany at (2) Vermont.  Winner:  Vermont

Atlantic 10 (March 14-17; Brooklyn)
3/14 – First Round
12 p.m. (NBC Sports) (8) Richmond vs. (9) Charlotte.  Winner:  Charlotte
2:30 p.m. (NBC Sports) (5) Butler vs. (12) Dayton.  Winner:  Butler
6:30 p.m. (NBC Sports) (7) Xavier vs. (10) St. Joseph's.  Winner:  Xavier
9 p.m. (NBC Sports) (6) UMass vs. (11) George Washington.  Winner:  UMass
3/15 - Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (NBC Sports) (1) St. Louis vs. (9) Charlotte.  Winner:  St. Louis
2:30 p.m. (NBC Sports) (4) LaSalle vs. (5) Butler.  Winner:  Butler
6:30 p.m. (NBC Sports) (2) VCU vs. (7) Xavier.  Winner:  VCU
9 p.m. (NBC Sports) (3) Temple vs. (6) UMass.  Winner:  Temple
3/16 - Semifinals
1:30 p.m. (CBS Sports) (1) St. Louis vs. (5) Butler.  Winner:  Butler
4 p.m. (CBS Sports) (2) VCU vs. (3) Temple.  Winner:  VCU
3/17 - Finals
1 p.m. (CBS) (2) VCU vs. (5) Butler.  Winner:  Butler

Big 12 (March 13-16; Kansas City)
3/14 - Quarterfinals
12:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (4) Oklahoma vs. (5) Iowa State.  Winner:  Iowa State
3 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Kansas vs. (9) Texas Tech.  Winner:  Kansas
7 p.m. (Big 12 Network) (2) Kansas State vs. (7) Texas.  Winner:  Kansas State
9:30 p.m. (Big 12 Network) (3) Oklahoma State vs. (6) Baylor.  Winner:  Oklahoma State
3/15 - Semifinals
7:30 p.m. (ESPNU/Big 12 Network) (1) Kansas vs. (5) Iowa State.  Winner:  Kansas
9 p.m. (ESPNU/Big 12 Network) (2) Kansas State vs. (3) Oklahoma State.  Winner:  Kansas State
3/16 - Finals
6 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Kansas vs. (2) Kansas State.  Winner:  Kansas

Big East (March 12-16; New York)
3/14 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Georgetown vs. (9) Cincinnati.  Winner:  Georgetown
2 p.m. (ESPN) (4) Pittsburgh vs. (5) Syracuse.  Winner:  Syracuse
7 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Louisville vs. (7) Villanova.  Winner:  Louisville
9 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Marquette vs. (6) Notre Dame.  Winner:  Notre Dame
3/15 - Semifinals
7 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Georgetown vs. (5) Syracuse.  Winner:  Syracuse
9 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Louisville vs. (6) Notre Dame.  Winner:  Louisville
3/16 - Finals
8:30 p.m. (ESPN) (2) Louisville vs. (5) Syracuse.  Winner:  Louisville

Big Sky (March 14-16; Missoula, MT)
3/14 - Quarterfinals
5 p.m. (BigSky TV) (2) Weber State vs. (7) Northern Arizona.  Winner:  Weber State
7:30 p.m. (BigSky TV) (3) North Dakota vs. (6) Southern Utah.  Winner:  North Dakota
10 p.m. (BigSky TV) (4) Montana State vs. (5) Northern Colorado.  Winner:  Montana State
3/15 - Semifinals
7:30 p.m. (BigSky TV) (2) Weber State vs. (3) North Dakota.  Winner:  Weber State
10 p.m. (BigSky TV) (1) Montana vs. (4) Montana State.  Winner: Montana
3/16 - Finals
9 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Montana vs. (2) Weber State.  Winner:  Montana

Big Ten (March 14-17; Chicago)
3/14 – First Round
12 p.m. (BTN) (8) Illinois vs. (9) Minnesota.  Winner:  Minnesota
2:30 p.m. (BTN) (5) Michigan vs. (12) Penn State.  Winner:  Michigan
6:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (7) Purdue vs. (10) Nebraska.  Winner:  Purdue
9 p.m. (ESPN2) (6) Iowa vs. (11) Northwestern.  Winner:  Iowa
3/15 – Quarterfinals
12 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Indiana vs. (9) Minnesota.  Winner:  Indiana
2:30 p.m. (ESPN) (4) Wisconsin vs. (5) Michigan.  Winner:  Michigan
6:30 p.m. (BTN) (2) Ohio State vs. (7) Purdue.  Winner:  Ohio State
9 p.m. (BTN) (3) Michigan State vs. (6) Iowa.  Winner:  Michigan State
3/16 - Semifinals
1:40 p.m. (CBS) (1) Indiana vs. (5) Michigan.  Winner:  Indiana
4 p.m. (CBS) (2) Ohio State vs. (3) Michigan State.  Winner:  Michigan State
3/17 - Finals
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (1) Indiana vs. (3) Michigan State.  Winner:  Indiana

Big West (March 14-16; Anaheim)
3/14 - Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (FOX Sports Prime Ticket/FOX College Sports – Pacific) (1) Long Beach State vs. (8) Cal State Fullerton.  Winner:  Long Beach State
5:30 p.m. (FOX Sports Prime Ticket/FOX College Sports – Pacific) (2) Pacific vs. (7) UC Santa Barbara.  Winner:  Pacific
9 p.m. (FOX Sports Prime Ticket/FOX College Sports – Pacific) (3) Cal Poly vs. (6) UC Davis.  Winner:  Cal Poly
11:30 p.m. (FOX Sports Prime Ticket/FOX College Sports – Pacific) (4) UC Irvine vs. (5) Hawaii.  Winner:  Hawaii
3/15 - Semifinals
9:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) Long Beach State vs. (5) Hawaii.  Winner:  Long Beach State
11:59 p.m. (ESPNU) (2) Pacific vs. (3) Cal Poly.  Winner:  Cal Poly
3/16 – Finals
10:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Long Beach State vs. (3) Cal Poly.  Winner:  Long Beach State

Conference USA (March 13-16; Tulsa)
3/14 – Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (CBS Sports) (2) Southern Mississippi vs. (7) UAB.  Winner:  Southern Mississippi
3:30 p.m. (CBS Sports) (3) UTEP vs. (6) Houston.  Winner:  Houston
7 p.m. (CBS Sports) (1) Memphis vs. (8) Tulane.  Winner:  Memphis
9:30 p.m. (CBS Sports) (4) East Carolina vs. (5) Tulsa.  Winner:  East Carolina
3/15 – Semifinals
4 p.m. (CBS Sports) (2) Southern Mississippi vs. (6) Houston.  Winner:  Southern Mississippi
6:30 p.m. (CBS Sports) (1) Memphis vs. (4) East Carolina.  Winner:  Memphis
3/16 – Finals
11:30 a.m. (CBS) (1) Memphis vs. (2) Southern Mississippi.  Winner:  Memphis

MAC (March 11, 13-16; first round at campus sites of higher seed; remaining rounds in Cleveland)
3/14 – Quarterfinals
6:30 p.m. (SportsTime Ohio) (4) Kent State vs. (8) Buffalo.  Winner:  Kent State
9 p.m. (SportsTime Ohio) (3) Western Michigan vs. (7) Eastern Michigan.  Winner:  Western Michigan
3/15 – Semifinals
6:30 p.m. (SportsTime Ohio) (1) Akron vs. (4) Kent State.  Winner:  Akron
9 p.m. (SportsTime Ohio) (2) Ohio vs. (3) Western Michigan.  Winner:  Ohio
3/16 – Finals
6:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Akron vs. (2) Ohio.  Winner:  Ohio

MEAC (March 11-16; Norfolk, VA)
3/14 - Quarterfinals
6:00 p.m. (3) Hampton vs. (6) Delaware State.  Winner:  Hampton
8:00 p.m. (4) Savannah State vs. (5) Morgan State.  Winner:  Savannah State
3/15 - Semifinals
6:00 p.m. (8) Bethune-Cookman vs. (4) Savannah State.  Winner:  Savannah State
8:00 p.m. (7) North Carolina A&T vs. (3) Hampton.  Winner:  Hampton
3/16 - Final
5:00 p.m. (ESPNU) (4) Savannah State vs. (3) Hampton.  Winner:  Savannah State

Mountain West (March 12-16; Las Vegas)
3/13 – Quarterfinals
11:59 p.m. (CBS Sports) (4) San Diego State vs. (5) Boise State.  Winner:  San Diego State
3/14 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (CBS Sports) (2) Colorado State vs. (3) UNLV.  Winner:  Colorado State
11:30 p.m. (CBS Sports) (1) New Mexico vs. (4) San Diego State.  Winner:  New Mexico
3/15 - Finals
6 p.m. (CBS Sports) (1) New Mexico vs. (2) Colorado State.  Winner:  New Mexico

Pac-12 (March 13-16; Las Vegas)
3/13 – First Round
11:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (6) Washington vs. (11) Washington State.  Winner:  Washington
3/14 - Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (1) UCLA vs. (9) Arizona State.  Winner:  UCLA
5:30 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (4) Arizona vs. (5) Colorado.  Winner:  Arizona
9 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (2) California vs. (10) Utah.  Winner:  California
11:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (3) Oregon vs. (6) Washington.  Winner:  Oregon
3/15 - Semifinals
9 p.m. (Pac-12 Network) (1) UCLA vs. (4) Arizona.  Winner:  Arizona
11:30 p.m. (ESPN) (2) California vs. (3) Oregon.  Winner:  Oregon
3/16 - Finals
11 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Oregon vs. (4) Arizona.  Winner:  Arizona

SEC (March 13-17; Nashville)
3/14 – Second Round
1 p.m. (ESPN3/SEC Network) (8) Georgia vs. (9) LSU.  Winner:  Georgia
3:30 p.m. (ESPN3/SEC Network) (5) Tennessee vs. (13) Mississippi State.  Winner:  Tennessee
7:30 p.m. (ESPN3/SEC Network) (7) Arkansas vs. (10) Vanderbilt.  Winner:  Vanderbilt
10 p.m. (ESPN3/SEC Network) (6) Missouri vs. (11) Texas A&M.  Winner:  Missouri
3/15 - Quarterfinals
1 p.m. (ESPNU) (1) Florida vs. (8) Georgia.  Winner:  Florida
3:30 p.m. (ESPNU) (4) Alabama vs. (5) Tennessee.  Winner:  Tennessee
7:30 p.m. (ESPN3/SEC Network) (2) Kentucky vs. (10) Vanderbilt.  Winner:  Kentucky
10 p.m. (ESPN3/SEC Network) (3) Mississippi vs. (6) Missouri.  Winner:  Mississippi
3/16 - Semifinals
1 p.m. (ABC) (1) Florida vs. (5) Tennessee.  Winner:  Florida
3:30 p.m. (ABC) (2) Kentucky vs. (3) Mississippi.  Winner:  Mississippi
3/17 - Finals
1 p.m. (ABC) (1) Florida vs. (3) Mississippi.  Winner:  Florida

Southland (March 13-16; Katy, TX)
3/14 – Second Round
6 p.m. (4) Southeastern Louisiana vs. (8) McNeese State.  Winner:  Southeastern Louisiana
8:30 p.m. (3) Oral Roberts vs. (6) Sam Houston State.  Winner:  Oral Roberts
3/15 – Semifinals
6 p.m. (ESPN3) (1) Stephen F. Austin vs. (4) Southeastern Louisiana.  Winner:  Stephen F. Austin
8:30 p.m. (ESPN3) (2) Northwestern State vs. (3) Oral Roberts.  Winner:  Oral Roberts
3/16 – Finals
8:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Stephen F. Austin vs. (3) Oral Roberts.  Winner:  Stephen F. Austin

SWAC (March 13-16; Garland, TX)
3/14 - Quarterfinals
1:30 p.m. (2) Jackson State vs. (5) Alabama State.  Winner:  Jackson State
9 p.m. (3) Alcorn State vs. (4) Prairie View A&M.  Winner:  Alcorn State
3/15 - Semifinals
3:30 p.m. (2) Jackson State vs. (3) Alcorn State.  Winner:  Jackson State
6 p.m. (1) Southern vs. (6) Alabama A&M.  Winner:  Southern
3/16 - Finals
4:30 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Southern vs. (2) Jackson State.  Winner:  Southern

WAC (March 12, 14-16; Las Vegas)
3/14 – Quarterfinals
3 p.m. (3) New Mexico State vs. (6) Idaho.  Winner:  New Mexico State
5:30 p.m. (2) Denver vs. (7) Texas State.  Winner:  Denver
9 p.m. (1) Louisiana Tech vs. (9) UTSA.  Winner:  Louisiana Tech
11:30 p.m. (4) UT Arlington vs. (5) Utah State.  Winner:  Utah State
3/15 – Semifinals
9 p.m. (2) Denver vs. (3) New Mexico State.  Winner:  Denver
11:30 p.m. (1) Louisiana Tech vs. (5) Utah State.  Winner:  Louisiana Tech
3/16 – Finals
11 p.m. (1) Louisiana Tech vs. (2) Denver.  Winner:  Louisiana Tech

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