Tuesday Top Ten: College Football Teams with the Best Chance of Going Undefeated

Week One of college football is in the books, and it was full of intrigue, upsets, and perfectly legitimate face punches. My Hoosiers have stormed out to 1-0, defeating the mighty Colonels of Eastern Kentucky by five more points than Iowa beat Northern Iowa. Remember what I said: Don't sleep on the Hoosiers.

Five teams in last week's Top 25 lost this weekend, including two in the top ten (Oklahoma and Virginia Tech). Currently, there are 22 undefeated teams in the Top 25. However, based on match-ups throughout the season, only 9 of the teams in the Top 25 can possibly end the season undefeated:

-Only one team each from the SEC, Big 12, and ACC can go undefeated because each of those conferences has a championship game. This means that, out of #1 Florida, #2 Texas, #4 Alabama, #5 Oklahoma State, #6 Mississippi, #11 LSU, #15 Georgia Tech, #19 North Carolina, #20 Miami (FL), #22 Nebraska, #24 Kansas, and #25 Missouri, only three can be undefeated.
-Only one team out of #9 BYU, #16 TCU, and #17 Utah can finish undefeated.
-Out of #3 USC, #10 Cal, and #18 Notre Dame, if the latter two can be undefeated, that means USC has two losses, but if USC goes undefeated, that means the other two can't. USC and #8 Ohio State play this weekend, so they both can't be undefeated. Also, #7 Penn State and Ohio State play later on, so they both can't be undefeated. Thus, out of those five teams, at most three can be undefeated.
-#12 Boise State and #23 Cincinnati can go undefeated without affecting anyone else who is currently in the Top 25.

With that as a backdrop, here are my choices for the ten teams who have the best chance of going undefeated in the regular season.

10. Notre Dame
I know what you're thinking: "GMYH, you hate Notre Dame, so how can you put them on this list?" You're damn right. I do hate Notre Dame. But they perennially play one of the easiest schedules, and this year is no exception. They have eight home games, and they play only one team that is currently ranked (USC). They also *appear* to be improved from last year's dominating 7-6 team. This is not to say that I think Notre Dame will go undefeated, and Lord knows I don't want them to win more than one game, but given the tough schedules than many of the other teams in the Top 25 play, the Irish backed into this list.
Game most likely to lose: USC (10/17)

9. TCU
The Horned Frogs are an under-the-radar team that can do some BCS busting if a few things go their way. They have two relatively tough non-conference games (at Virginia and at Clemson) that they should be able to win, and then two really tough in-conference games (at BYU and at home against Utah in mid-November). If they can pull an upset in Provo, look out.
Game most likely to lose: at BYU (10/24)

8. Cincinnati
The Big East is down this year, which means the Bearcats have a decent shot at running the table if they can win a tough road game against Oregon State on September 19. That's not to say it will be easy, as they have to play at South Florida and at Pitt, as well as at home against Illinois and West Virginia.
Game most likely to lose: at Oregon State (9/19)

7. Ohio State
Aside from two extremely tough games (this weekend's home contest against USC and a November 7 trip to Happy Valley), Ohio State's schedule it pretty light. They don't play Northwestern or Michigan State (both bowl teams last year), and if they can get past USC this weekend, they should roll through their remaining games leading up to the Penn State game with relative ease.
Game most likely to lose: USC (9/12)

6. USC
The Trojans have a big test this Saturday in Columbus, and then two scrimmages against the Washington schools before three seemingly tough road games in three weeks at Cal, Notre Dame, and Oregon. But this is USC we're talking about, so it should not surprise anyone if they finish the regular season without any losses.
Game most likely to lose: at Ohio State (9/12)

5. Cal
Could this be the year that the Bears finally overtake USC for the Pac-10 title? It just might be. While the Bears have tough road games at Minnesota and Oregon to finish out September (as well as a trip to Stanford in November), they only play one team that is currently ranked: USC.
Game most likely to lose: USC (10/3)

4. BYU
After the Cougars knocked off Oklahoma last weekend, they shot up eleven spots in the AP poll to #9. They are a good football team, and unlike several of the other teams in the top ten, they actually scheduled a tough non-conference slate (in addition to the OU game, they also play Florida State in two weeks). Better yet, they play the Mountain West's other two stalwarts -- TCU and Utah -- at home. The ghosts of Lavell Edwards's 1984 national champions may be resurrected, or whatever it is that Mormons do.
Game most likely to lose: Utah (11/28)

3. Florida
Florida's remaining non-conference schedule is pretty weak. Other than an in-state rivalry game with Florida State, the Gators play Troy and FIU. Also, they don't have to play Alabama or Mississippi this year, but they do have to play Georgia, as well as at LSU.
Game most likely to lose: at LSU (10/10)

2. Penn State
Penn State also has what I would deem a pathetic non-conference schedule for a Top 10 team (Akron, Syracuse, Temple, and Eastern Illinois), and the only other real challenge other than OSU should be a road game at Michigan State to end the season.
Game most likely to lose: Ohio State (11/7)

1. Boise State
After taking Oregon down last weekend, Boise State has the best shot of winning out. Sure, they play on the road against some bowl teams from last year (Fresno State, Tulsa, Hawaii, Louisiana Tech), but no one will be as tough as the team they beat in the first week. Unless the Broncos have an uncharacteristic slip in focus, they will be in a BCS bowl.Game most likely to lose: at Tulsa (10/14).