Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions

In less than two weeks, it will be March.  Madness will reign.  That means it's time for my yearly attempt to predict the seeding for the Big Ten Tournament.

The Big Ten has been kind of an enigma this year, beating the shit out of itself, with teams rising and falling out of the Top 25 like it's going out of style.  So far this season, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin have all been ranked in the Top 25 at various times.  Teams are losing on the road.  Teams are losing at home.  No team has really separated itself, and even the teams in 9th and 10th place right now are only 2 games back of 5th place in the loss column.

Take IU, for example, which is having, by all objective and subjective criteria, a terribly disappointing season.  The Hoosiers started the season in the Top 25.  They are now 14-11 overall, with a 4-8 Big Ten record.  But two of those 4 conference wins have come against Top 10 opponents.  Meanwhile, they have lost to the likes of Penn State and Northwestern at home and Nebraska and Purdue on the road, all but destroying any hopes of an NCAA tournament bid.

The same thing has happened all around the league.  Wisconsin and Ohio State were both ranked as high as #3 before both lost 5 out of 6.  Illinois was ranked as high as #23 going into its January 8 game at Wisconsin.  Since then, the Illini have lost 10 of 11.  Michigan struggled a little bit at the beginning of the season, then reeled off 10 straight wins, to get up to #10 in the polls.  Since then, they are 2-3.  Even perennial stalwart Michigan State is 3-4 in its last 7 games.  Iowa is the only team whose conference losses have been only to teams in the top five of the Big Ten standings.

It's been a blood bath, and I would expect the carnage to continue.  Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining games, and my predictions.  Given how the season has gone, I would be surprised if I got more than 50% of these correct.  I will try to update these after every day or every couple days of games.

1 (tie).  Michigan (10-3):  MSU (W), at Purdue (W), Minnesota (W), at Illinois (W), IU (W)

1 (tie).  Michigan State (10-3):  at Purdue (W), at Michigan (L), Illinois (W), Iowa (W), at OSU (L)

3.  Iowa (8-4):  at IU (L), Wisconsin (W), at Minnesota (L), Purdue (W), at MSU (L), Illinois (W)

4.  Wisconsin (8-5):  at Iowa (L), IU (W), at PSU (W), Purdue (W), Nebraska (W)

5.  Ohio State (7-6):  Northwestern (W), Minnesota (W), at PSU (W), at IU (L), MSU (W)

6.  Nebraska (6-6):  PSU (W), Purdue (W), at Illinois (L), Northwestern (W), at IU (L), Wisconsin (L)

7.  Minnesota (6-7):  Illinois (W), at OSU (L), Iowa (W), at Michigan (W), PSU (W)

8.  Purdue (5-7):  MSU (L), at Nebraska (L), Michigan (L), at Iowa (L), at Wisconsin (L), Northwestern (W)

9.  Northwestern (5-8):  at OSU (L), IU (L), at Nebraska (L), PSU (W), at Purdue (L)

10.  Indiana (4-8):  Iowa (W), at Northwestern (W), at Wisconsin (L), OSU (W), Nebraska (W), at Michigan (L)

11.  Penn State (4-9):  at Nebraska (L), OSU (L), Wisconsin (L), at Northwestern (L), at Minnesota (L)

12.  Illinois (3-10):  at Minnesota (L), Nebraska (W), at MSU (L), Michigan (L), at Iowa (L)

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place and how the Big Ten Tournament will play out (all times are Central):

1.  Michigan (15-3)

2.  Michigan State (13-5)

3.  Wisconsin (12-6)

4.  Iowa (11-7) (Iowa will have tiebreaker over Ohio State based on 1-1 record vs. Michigan, while OSU has 0-1 record vs. Michigan)

5.  Ohio State (11-7)

6.  Minnesota (10-8)

7.  Nebraska (9-9)

8.  Indiana (8-10)

9.  Northwestern (6-12) (Northwestern will have tiebreaker over Purdue based on 1-1 record vs. Wisconsin, while Purdue will have 0-2 record vs. Wisconsin)

10.  Purdue (6-12)

11.  Illinois (4-14) (Illinois has tiebreaker over PSU based on 2-0 record vs. PSU)

12.  Penn State (4-14)

I usually also include far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, but I'm not even going to try to do that this year until the seeds are announced, since it would be an even more futile exercise than usual.  However, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Central.  This means that, if IU ends up being the 8 or 9 seed (or probably the 5 or 12 seed, too), I will be in a maternity ward without access to television when they play their First Round game -- not that I'll hold that against my son forever.

Thursday March 13 – First Round

(8) vs. (9) (11 a.m., BTN)

(5) vs. (12) (1:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (5:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11) (8 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 14 - Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (11 a.m., ESPN/EPSN2)

(4) vs. (5)/(12) (1:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN2)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (5:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11) (8 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 15 - Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12) (12:40 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11) (3 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 16 - Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11) (2:30 p.m., CBS)