Updated Big Ten Tournament Seeding Predictions

Last night, IU managed to turn a 10-point halftime lead into an 11-point loss at Wisconsin.  Of course, Wisconsin shot about 26% in the first half and the Hoosiers have a penchant for collapsing in the second half, so you knew that lead wasn't going to last.  Not that I was expecting a win in Madison, since the Hoosiers haven't won there since 1998 (which is pathetic).  Of course, it doesn't hurt that Wisconsin shot 24 free throws to IU's 5, as IU was called for 20 fouls while Wisconsin was only called for 7.  Amazing how that always seems to happen in the Kohl Center.  

The Hoosiers have three huge home games on the slate coming up this next week -- Iowa tomorrow night (8 p.m. Central; ESPN), Ohio State on Sunday (3 p.m. Central; CBS), and Nebraska next Wednesday (6 p.m. Central; BTN).  These are all winnable games, since they are at Assembly Hall.  Then again, I thought Northwestern and Penn State were winnable games at home.  I guess the Hoosiers have proven they can beat or lose to any team in the Big Ten.  After that, the Hoosiers close out the Big Ten regular season in Ann Arbor –- who is a whore, mind you -- on Saturday 3/8 (5 p.m. Central; ESPN), potentially destroying the Wolverines' hopes for a Big Ten title for the second year in a row on the last day of the regular season.  Regardless, the Hoosiers have to win one more game to guarantee a .500 record and a berth in the NIT.

In other news, Minnesota beat Iowa.  Whoopteedoo.

Tonight, there are two Big Ten games:

-#16 Michigan at Purdue (6 p.m. Central; BTN)

-Nebraska at Illinois (8 p.m. Central; BTN)

These are trap games for Michigan and Nebraska, respectively, although Nebraska arguably has more to lose, as the Huskers are securely on the NCAA tournament bubble -- currently on Joe Lunardi's "Next Four Out" in Bracketology (which has not been updated to include last night's games, so it might be different now).  Michigan, on the other hand, is all but guaranteed an NCAA tournament berth, but a loss would be a serious blow to the Wolverines' Big Ten title hopes.

Here are the current standings, with the conference record, each team's remaining games, and my predictions.

1.  Michigan (11-3):  at Purdue (W), Minnesota (W), at Illinois (W), IU (W)

2.  Michigan State (11-4):  Illinois (W), Iowa (W), at OSU (L)

3.  Wisconsin (10-5):  at PSU (W), Purdue (W), at Nebraska (W)

4.  Ohio State (9-6):  at PSU (W), at IU (L), MSU (W)

5.  Iowa (8-6):  at IU (L), Purdue (W), at MSU (L), Illinois (W)

6.  Nebraska (8-6):  at Illinois (L), Northwestern (W), at IU (L), Wisconsin (L)

7.  Minnesota (7-9):  at Michigan (L), PSU (W)

8.  Indiana (5-9):  Iowa (W), OSU (W), Nebraska (W), at Michigan (L)

9.  Purdue (5-9):  Michigan (L), at Iowa (L), at Wisconsin (L), Northwestern (W)

10.  Northwestern (5-10):  at Nebraska (L), PSU (W), at Purdue (L)

11.  Penn State (4-10):  OSU (L), Wisconsin (L), at Northwestern (L), at Minnesota (L)

12.  Illinois (4-10):  Nebraska (W), at MSU (L), Michigan (L), at Iowa (L)

Given my predictions and Big Ten tiebreaking rules, here is how the Big Ten Tournament seeds should fall into place and how the Big Ten Tournament will play out (all times are Central):

1.  Michigan (15-3)

2.  Wisconsin (13-5) (Wisconsin has tiebreaker over MSU based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

3.  Michigan State (13-5)

4.  Ohio State (11-7)

5.  Iowa (10-8)

6.  Nebraska (9-9)

7.  Minnesota (8-10) (Minnesota has tiebreaker over IU based on 1-0 head-to-head record)

8.  Indiana (8-10)

9.  Northwestern (6-12) (Northwestern will have tiebreaker over Purdue based on 1-1 record vs. Wisconsin, while Purdue will have 0-2 record vs. Wisconsin)

10.  Purdue (6-12)

11.  Illinois (5-13)

12.  Penn State (4-14)

I usually also include far-too-premature predictions for every game of the Big Ten Tournament, but I'm not even going to try to do that this year until the seeds are announced (or maybe a week or two out), since it would be an even more futile exercise than usual.  However, here are the dates/times/TV schedule for the Big Ten Tournament (and a link to the bracket), which will be in Indianapolis.  All times are Central.

Thursday March 13 – First Round

(8) vs. (9) (11 a.m., BTN)

(5) vs. (12) (1:30 p.m., BTN)

(7) vs. (10) (5:30 p.m., ESPN2)

(6) vs. (11) (8 p.m., ESPN2)

Friday March 14 - Quarterfinals

(1) vs. (8)/(9) (11 a.m., ESPN/EPSN2)

(4) vs. (5)/(12) (1:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN2)

(2) vs. (7)/(10) (5:30 p.m., BTN)

(3) vs. (6)/(11) (8 p.m., BTN)

Saturday March 15 - Semifinals

(1)/(8)/(9) vs. (4)/(5)/(12) (12:40 p.m., CBS)

(2)/(7)/(10) vs. (3)/(6)/(11) (3 p.m., CBS)

Sunday March 16 - Finals

(1)/(4)/(5)/(8)/(9)/(12) vs. (2)/(3)/(6)/(7)/(10)/(11) (2:30 p.m., CBS)