Monday, April 07, 2014

Tuesday Top Ten: NCAA Championship Game Edition

Yes, I realize it's Monday, not Tuesday, but if I wait until tomorrow to post this, it won't make much sense.

This weekend's Final Four games were not good to me.  Florida lost to UConn, ending any hope I had in any of my "pick-a-team" pools.  Kentucky beat Wisconsin on yet another last-second three-pointer from Aaron Harrison.  I don't like that guy.  At least the games were on TBS, so most of Kentucky's fan base couldn't watch at home.

So, tonight's national championship game pits 7-seed UConn vs. 8-seed Kentucky.  the game tips off at 9:10 PM Eastern on CBS.

Here are some thoughts and stats about the game:

10.  UConn is the first 7-seed to ever reach the championship game, and Kentucky is the third 8-seed to make it to the championship game (UCLA in 1980, Villanova in 1985, and Butler in 2011).  No team with a seed higher than 8 has ever advanced to the title game.  If Kentucky wins, it will tie Villanova for the highest-seeded team to ever win the title, and if UConn wins, it will be the second-highest-seeded team to win a title.  No matter who wins, it will become the 10th national champ since seeding began in 1979 that is not a 1- or 2-seed, and only the 4th national champion whose seed line meant that the team should have been eliminated in the Round of 32 (i.e., seeded 5 or higher) (bolded below). Here are the teams seeded 3 or higher that have won the championship:

1981:  Indiana (3)
1983:  NC State (6)
1985:  Villanova (8)
1988:  Kansas (6)
1989:  Michigan (3)
1997:  Arizona (4)
2003:  Syracuse (3)
2006:  Florida (3)
2011:  UConn (3)

9.  The average seed for the final is 7.5, which is by far the highest for a championship game since seeding began 1979.  In fact, this is on the 7th time the average seed in the final is 3.5 or more (bolded below), and only the 3rd time the average seed is 5 or more.  Here are the average title game seeds since 1979:

2014: 7.5
2013: 2.5
2012: 1.5
2011: 5.5
2010: 3
2009: 1.5
2008: 1
2007: 1
2006: 2.5
2005: 1
2004: 2.5
2003: 2.5
2002: 3
2001: 1.5
2000: 3
1999: 1
1998: 2.5
1997: 2.5
1996: 2.5
1995: 1.5
1994: 1.5
1993: 1
1992: 3.5
1991: 2.5
1990: 2
1989: 3
1988: 3.5
1987: 1.5
1986: 1.5
1985: 4.5
1984: 1.5
1983: 3.5
1982: 1
1981: 2.5
1980: 5
1979: 1.5

8.  With Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright, UConn has one of the most talented backcourts in the country.  Everyone talks about how important guard play is to winning an NCAA title, which is why UConn was a relatively popular pick to pull some upsets, although not too many people had the Huskies going this far.  Napier is projected to be a late 1st round or early 2nd round pick in the NBA draft.  On the other side, Kentucky has twin freshmen Andrew and Aaron Harrison, who are also projected to be late 1st round or early 2nd round picks if they were to enter the draft.

Here are the guards who either started or played significant roles on NCAA title teams who were drafted in the first or second round of the NBA draft since 1989 (when the NBA draft went down to two rounds).  All but four of the last 25 NCAA title teams have had at least one guard drafted.  Some of these players were hybrid shooting guard/small forwards, but I included them if I felt they played enough on the "guard" side to be included.

2013 (Louisville):  Peyton Siva (2nd round 2013)
2012 (Kentucky):   Marquis Teague (1st round 2012), Doron Lamb (2nd round 2012)
2011 (UConn):  Kemba Walker (1st round 2011), Jeremy Lamb (1st round 2012)
2010 (Duke):  Nolan Smith (1st round 2011)
2009 (North Carolina):  Ty Lawson (1st round 2009), Wayne Ellington (1st round 2009)
2008 (Kansas):  Brandon Rush (1st round 2008), Mario Chalmers (2nd round 2008)
2006-2007 (Florida):  Taurean Green (2nd round 2007)
2005 (North Carolina):  Raymond Felton (1st round 2005), Rashad McCants (1st round 2005)
2004 (UConn):  Ben Gordon (1st round 2004)
2003 (Syracuse):  none
2002 (Maryland):  Juan Dixon (1st round 2002), Steve Blake (2nd round 2003)
2001 (Duke):  Jay Williams (1st round 2002), Chris Duhon (2nd round 2004)
2000 (Michigan State):  Jason Richardson (1st round 2001), Mateen Cleaves (1st round 2001), Morris Peterson (1st round 2001)
1999 (UConn):  Khalid El-Amin (2nd round 2000)
1998 (Kentucky): none
1997 (Arizona):  Mike Bibby (1st round 1998), Miles Simon (2nd round 1998), Jason Terry (1st round 1999)
1996 (Kentucky):  Tony Delk (1st round 1996)
1995 (UCLA):  Tyus Edney (2nd round 1995), Toby Bailey (2nd round 1998)
1994 (Arkansas):  none
1993 (North Carolina):  none
1991-1992 (Duke):  Brian Davis (2nd round 1992), Bobby Hurley (1st round 1993), Thomas Hill (2nd round 1993)
1990 (UNLV):  Greg Anthony (1st round 1991)
1989 (Michigan):  Glen Rice (1st round 1989), Rumeal Robinson (1st round 1990)

7.  Ollie can win title in first Final Four appearance, which would make him only the 25th head coach and first since Bill Self in 2008 to win the NCAA title in his first Final Four appearance.  At 41 and 101 days, he would be the youngest head coach to win the title since Billy Donovan won his first title in 2006 at age 40, and the 13th youngest coach to ever win a title.  Here are the ages of the coaches younger than Ollie who have won a title:

40:  Billy Donovan (Florida, 2006); Bob Knight (Indiana, 1981); Phil Woolpert (San Francisco, 1956); Henry Iba (Oklahoma A&M, 1945)
39:  Phil Woolpert (San Francisco, 1955)
37:  Jim Valvano (NC State, 1983)
36:  Don Haskins (Texas Western, 1966)
35:  Bob Knight (Indiana, 1976); Fred Taylor (Ohio State, 1960); Howard Hobson (Oregon, 1939)
34:  Bud Foster (Wisconsin, 1941)
31:  Branch McCracken (Indiana, 1940)

6.  If UConn wins, it would become the 9th school to win NCAA tournaments under multiple coaches (having also won 3 titles under Jim Calhoun).  Here are the others:

Five:
Kentucky:  Adolph Rupp (1948, 1949, 1951, 1958), Joe B. Hall (1978), Rick Pitino (1996), Tubby Smith (1998), Jim Calipari (2012)

Three:
Kansas:  Phog Allen (1952), Larry Brown (1988), Bill Self (2008)
North Carolina:  Frank McGuire (1957), Dean Smith (1982, 1993), Roy Williams (2005, 2009)

Two:
Indiana:  Branch McCracken (1940, 1953), Bob Knight (1976, 1981, 1987)
Louisville:  Denny Crum (1980, 1986), Rick Pitino (2013)
Michigan State:  Jud Heathcote (1979), Tom Izzo (2000)
NC State:  Norm Sloan (1974), Jim Valvano (1983)
UCLA:  John Wooden (1964, 1965, 1967-1973, 1975), Jim Harrick (1995)

5.  John Calipari has the chance to become the 15th coach to win multiple NCAA tournaments –- until they are vacated right around the time he bolts for the NBA, of course.  Here are the others:

John Wooden (UCLA):  10 (1964, 1965, 1967-1973, 1975)
Adolph Rupp (Kentucky):  4 (1948, 1949, 1951, 1958)
Mike Krzyzewski (Duke):  4 (1991, 1992, 2001, 2010)
Bob Knight (Indiana):  3 (1976, 1981, 1987)
Jim Calhoun (UConn):  3 (1999, 2004, 2011)
Branch McCracken (Indiana):  2 (1940, 1953)
Henry Iba (Oklahoma A&M):  2 (1945, 1946)
Phil Woolpert (San Francisco):  2 (1955, 1956)
Ed Jucker (Cincinnati):  2 (1961, 1962)
Denny Crum (Louisville):  2 (1980, 1986)
Dean Smith (North Carolina):  2 (1982, 1993)
Roy Williams (North Carolina):  2 (2005, 2009)
Billy Donovan (Florida):  2 (2006, 2007)
Rick Pitino (Kentucky, Louisville):  2 (1996, 2013)

4.  This is the first time since the NCAA tournament began seeding in 1979 that there is not at least one team seeded 1-6 in the championship game.

3.  This is only the third final since 1979 that doesn't feature a 1 or 2 seed.  The other two were 1989 (3-seed Michigan vs. 3-seed Seton Hall) and 2011 (3-seed UConn vs. 8-seed Butler).

2.  Between the two schools, they have 11 combined national titles (8 for Kentucky and 3 for UConn).  This is the only the sixth time the schools meeting for the national title have 10 or more titles between them (at the time of that particular game), and the only the second time that has been done without UCLA participating.
1975:  13 - UCLA (9), Kentucky (4)
1980:  10 – Louisville (0), UCLA (10)
1995:  11 - UCLA (10), Arkansas (1)
2006: 11 - Florida (0), UCLA (11)
2012:  10 - Kentucky (7), Kansas (3)
2014:  11 – Kentucky (8), UConn (3)

1.  Perhaps worst of all, Tyler Allen Black -- the UK fan who got a "2014 national champions" Kentucky tattoo before the tournament even started -- may have the last laugh at everyone (including me) who called him a moron when learning that he got the tattoo.  If this alone isn't a reason to root for UConn, I don't know what is.

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