Sunday, March 17, 2019

Final Championship Week Predictions: Sunday Bloody Sunday


Happy St. Patrick's Selection Sunday!  We have to go with "Sunday Bloody Sunday" today, not only because you probably need a Bloody to help out with that hangover, but also because it's gonna be a brutal Sunday for a lot of college basketball teams and, well, U2 is Irish.  In case you were too Irish yesterday to remember, here's what happened in yesterday's Championship Week action and what we have to look forward to today:
  • In the ACC final, 3-seed Duke beat 4-seed Florida State, 73-63.  The Blue Devils will be playing in their 43rd NCAA Tournament and 24th in a row.
  • In the America East final, 1-seed Vermont ruined any hopes 3-seed UBMC had of a second 16-1 upset with a 66-49 win.  The Catamounts will be going to their 7th NCAA Tournament and first since 2017.  Somewhere, Taylor Coppenrath is smiling -- probably somewhere in Vermont.
  • In the Big 12 final, 5-seed Iowa State topped 3-seed Kansas, 78-66.  The Cyclones will be playing in their 20th NCAA Tournament and first since 2017.
  • In the Big East final, 1-seed Villanova downed 3-seed Seton Hall in a 74-72 thriller.  The Wildcats will be defending their national title in their 39th trip to the NCAA Tournament and 7th in a row.
  • In the Big Sky final, 1-seed Montana beat 3-seed Eastern Washington, 68-62.  The Grizzlies will be playing in their 12th Big Dance and second in a row.
  • In the Big West final, 1-seed UC Irvine left nothing to chance, demolishing 3-seed Cal State Fullerton, 92-64, to earn the Anteaters their 2nd NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2015.
  • In the Conference USA final, 1-seed Old Dominion held off 2-seed Western Kentucky, 62-56.  The Monarchs will be playing in their 12th NCAA Tournament and first since 2011.
  • In the miggity-miggity-miggity-miggity-miggity-miggity-MAC final, 1-seed Buffalo squelched a potential bid stealer in 3-seed Bowling Green with a 87-73 win.  The Bulls will be playing in their 4th NCAA Tournament and second in a row.
  • In the MEAC final, 3-seed North Carolina Central upset 1-seed Norfolk State, 50-47.  The Eagles will be playing in their 4th NCAA Tournament berth and third in a row.
  • In the Mountain West final, 2-seed Utah State beat 4-seed San Diego State, 64-57, must to the delight of bubble teams.  The Aggies will be playing in their 21st NCAA Tournament and first since 2011.
  • In the Pac-12 final, 6-seed Oregon stole a bid by upsetting 1-seed Washington, 68-48.  The Ducks will be playing in their 16th tournament and first since 2017.
  • In the Southland final, 2-seed Abilene Christian earned its first ever trip to the Big Dance with a win over 4-seed New Orleans, 77-60.
  • In the SWAC final, 1-seed Prairie View A&M beat 2-seed Texas Southern, 92-86, to earn the Panthers their 2nd NCAA Tournament berth and first since 1998. 
  • In the wiggity-wiggity-wiggity-wiggity-wiggity-wiggity-WAC final, 1-seed New Mexico State crushed 3-seed Grand Canyon, 89-57.  The Aggies will be playing in their 25th Big Dance and third in a row.
  • In the AAC semis, 1-seed Houston and 2-seed Cincinnati both were on the right end of 3-point victories.  Both are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  The Cougars will be playing in their 21st Big Dance and second in a row, while the Bearcats will be playing in their 33rd and 9th in a row.
  • In the A-10 semis, 4-seed St. Bonaventure beat 8-seed Rhode Island, 68-51, while 2-seed Davidson was upset by 6-seed St. Louis, 67-44.  The Bonnies will be playing for their 8th NCAA Tournament berth and second in row, and the Billikens will be playing for their 10th berth and first since 2014.
  • In the Big Ten semis, the top two seeds advanced easily, as 1-seed Michigan State beat 4-seed Wisconsin, 67-55, and 2-seed Michigan beat 7-seed Minnesota, 76-49.  Both teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament.  The Spartans will be playing in their 33rd NCAA Tournament and 21st in a row, and the Wolverines will be playing in their 29th and 4th in a row.
  • In the Ivy League semis, 1-seed Harvard topped 4-seed Penn, 66-58, and 2-seed Yale beat 3-seed Princeton, 83-77.  The Crimsonis playing for its 6th NCAA Tournament berth and first since 2015, while the Bulldogs are playing for their 5th berth and first since 2016.
  • In the SEC semis, 8-seed Florida's run has ended, with a 65-62 loss to 5-seed Auburn, and 3-seed Tennessee beat 2-seed Kentucky, 82-78 -- just as I predicted.  Both are locks for the tournament.  The Tigers will be playing in their 10th and second in a row (and first SEC tournament title since 1985), while the Volunteers will be playing in their 22nd and second in a row (and first SEC tournament title since 1979).
  • In the Sun Belt semis, 1-seed Georgia State beat 4-seed Texas State, 59-46, and  2-seed UT Arlington beat 3-seed Georgia Southern, 67-58, ending your dream of a GS-GS final.  The Panthers will be playing for their 5th NCAA Tournament berth and second in a row, while the Mavericks will be paying for their 2nd berth and first since 2008.
  • The remaining six bids are up for grabs today, and then we have the re-revamped Selection Sunday show.  Don't fuck it up this year, CBS/TBS.
  • Bubble teams that won yesterday:  Utah State
  • Bubble teams that lost yesterday:  Florida, Memphis, Minnesota, Seton Hall
With that, here are the tournaments starting today, the tournaments with games today, bids up for grab today, who has already clinched an automatic berth, and my predictions for the remaining conference tournaments.

Tournaments with games today
-AAC
-Atlantic 10
-Big Ten
-Ivy League
-SEC
-Sun Belt

Bids up for grabs today (all times Eastern)
-Ivy League:  (1) Harvard vs. (2) Yale (12 p.m.; ESPN2)
-Atlantic 10:  (4) St. Bonaventure vs. (6) St. Louis (1 p.m.; CBS)
-SEC:  (3) Tennessee vs. (5) Auburn (1 p.m.; ESPN)
-Sun Belt: (1) Georgia State vs. (2) UT Arlington ( 2 p.m.; ESPN2) 
-AAC:  (1) Houston vs. (2) Cincinnati (3 p.m.; ESPN)
-Big Ten:  (1) Michigan State vs. (3) Michigan (3:30 p.m.; CBS) 

Already clinched automatic berths (I will add in parentheses the NCAA tournament appearances for each school, including the bid just clinched, and for conferences whose tournaments have not yet ended, I'll list the date of the championship game)
-AAC (March 17)
-ACC:  Duke (43)
-America East:  Vermont (7)
-Atlantic 10 (March 17)
-Atlantic Sun:  Liberty (4)
-Big 12:  Iowa State (20
-Big East:  Villanova (39)
-Big Sky:  Montana (12)
-Big South:  Gardner-Webb (1)
-Big Ten:  (March 17)
-Big West:  UC Irvine (2)
-Colonial:  Northeastern (9)
-Conference USA:  Old Dominion (12)
-Horizon:  Northern Kentucky (2)
-Ivy League (March 17)
-MAAC:  Iona (14)
-MAC:  Buffalo (4)
-MEAC:  North Carolina Central (4)
-Missouri Valley:  Bradley (9)
-Mountain West:  Utah State (21)
-Northeast Conference:  Fairleigh Dickinson (6)
-Ohio Valley:  Murray State (17)
-Pac-12:  Oregon (16)
-Patriot League:  Colgate (3)
-SEC (March 17)
-Southern Conference:  Wofford (5)
-Southland:  Abilene Christian (1)
-Summit:  North Dakota State (4)
-Sun Belt (March 17)
-SWAC:  Prairie View A&M (2)
-WAC:  New Mexico State (25)
-West Coast:  St. Mary's (10)

Remaining Tournaments (all times are Eastern)

AAC (March 14-17; Memphis)
3/17 – Finals
3 p.m. (ESPN) (1) Houston vs. (2) Cincinnati.  Predicted winner:  Houston

Atlantic 10 (March 13-17; Brooklyn)
3/17 – Finals
1 p.m. (CBS) (4) St. Bonaventure vs. (6) St. Louis.  Predicted winner:  St. Bonaventure

Big Ten (March 13-17; Chicago)
3/17 – Finals
3:30 p.m. (CBS) (1) Michigan State vs. (3) Michigan.  Predicted winner:  Michigan State

Ivy League (March 16-17; New Haven, CT)
3/17 – Finals
12 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Harvard vs. (2) Yale.  Predicted winner:  Yale

SEC (March 13-17; Nashville)
3/17 – Finals
1 p.m. (ESPN) (3) Tennessee vs. (5) Auburn.  Predicted winner:  Tennessee

Sun Belt (March 12, 14-17; New Orleans)
3/17 – Finals
2 p.m. (ESPN2) (1) Georgia State vs. (2) UT Arlington.  Predicted winner:  Georgia State

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