Tuesday Top Ten: NCAA Tournament Edition

This year's NCAA Tournament brackets have been announced, and as always, we look to be in for an exciting NCAA Tournament.  I have already filled out 78 brackets, and they're all horrible.  Here are a couple initial random thoughts:

• Like last year, I think there are 9 teams that could legitimately win it all and about 15-18 teams that could legitimately make it to the Final Four, but at the same time, I wouldn't be shocked if all of them lost by the Sweet 16.
• I think Virginia has the easiest path to the Final Four of any 1-seed, and I think Duke and UNC are tied for the hardest path of any of the 1-seeds.
• I would not be surprised if all of the 12-seeds beat all of the 5-seeds.  Or none.
• Here are some interesting Round of 64 matchups:
• That Marquette-Murray State matchup in the West should be a really fun game to watch, with two star guards -- Marquette's Markus Howard and Murray State's Ja Morant -- leading the way.
• If 11-seed Arizona State wins its First Four game on Wednesday night, the Sun Devils -- who are coached by Bobby Hurley -- will play 6-seed Buffalo, which is where Hurley coached before he traded snow for sun in 2015.
• In the East Region, 7-seed Louisville -- formerly coached by Rick Pitino -- will be facing 10-seed Minnesota, coached by Pitino's son, Richard.
• If 16-seed North Carolina Central beats North Dakota State in tonight's First Four game, the Eagles will get the opportunity to be destroyed by Duke.  Not only are both schools located in North Carolina, but they're both in Durham.  This will be the only potential matchup in the Round of 64 between schools from the same state.
• Fuck Purdue
• Fuck Kentucky

Anyway, as I do every year, here are a couple lists of five teams each in a few categories that you should consider when filling out your brackets.  Expect there to be some contradictions, since that's the nature of predicting the NCAA Tournament.  Teams are in alphabetical order.  So you don't think I'm entirely full of shit (or perhaps to prove that I am), I'll put in parentheses what I correctly predicted last year.

Teams with the best shot at winning it all (last year, I had Villanova on this list):

1.  Duke (1-seed East).  With a healthy Zion Williamson, it's going to be tough to beat Duke.  The Blue Devils seem like a team of destiny.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  13-5

2.  Virginia (1-seed South).  The Cavaliers are coming off of the wrong end of the biggest upset in NCAA basketball history since they lost to Chaminade in 1982.  That in itself should be plenty of motivation.  This is still a really good basketball team, and I'd expect them to exorcise their UMBC demons.  They only have 3 losses on the season, and their "worst" loss was to Florida State (who is a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament) in the ACC Tournament semis.  On top of that, I think their region is relatively weak.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  10-3

3.  Michigan State (2-seed East).  The Spartans won both the regular season and Big Ten Tournament titles and got rewarded with a 2-seed, which is kind of bullshit.  Top to bottom, I think the Big Ten was the toughest league this year.  The Spartans have a pretty solid chance at getting to the Elite Eight, where they'd likely be matched up with Duke.  The Spartans have enough talent to beat the Blue Devils -- or anyone else in the field, for that matter.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  14-3

4.  North Carolina (1-seed Midwest).  Roy Williams's squad is as talented as any team in the field.  They've beaten Duke twice (albeit both times Duke wasn't at full strength) and Gonzaga.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  9-5

5.  Gonzaga (1-seed West).  The only team in the country that has beaten a fully healthy Duke is Gonzaga -- whose only three losses are to tournament teams, and are neutral court losses to Tennessee and St. Mary's, and at North Carolina.  Don't sleep on the Zags.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  5-3

Final Four sleepers (teams seeded 4 or higher) (last year, I did not have Loyola on this list, but no one did):

1.  Buffalo (6-seed West).  Buffalo is 31-3 and coming off of the school's first NCAA Tournament win -- last year's 21-point thrashing of Arizona as a 13-seed.  The Bulls are legit, and their half of the West region isn't particularly strong.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  1-1

2.  Florida State (4-seed West).  The Seminoles came within five points of going to the Final Four last year as a 9-seed.  Since January 20, their only two losses are at North Carolina and to Duke in the ACC Tournament title game.  They demonstrated in the ACC Tournament that they can beat just about anyone, and after beating a 1-seed in last year's Second Round, they aren't going to be afraid of facing Gonzaga in the Sweet 16.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  9-5

3.  Virginia Tech (4-seed East).  The Hokies are a great three-point shooting team, and that is never a hindrance come March.  Plus, they were certainly battle-tested in the ACC (and have beaten Duke).

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  5-6

4.  Villanova (6-seed South).  The defending national champs don't appear to have the same panache as last year's squad, but they are still pretty damn good and have the experience.  Plus, they have some potentially favorable matchups in the bottom half of their region.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  6-5

5.  Auburn (5-seed Midwest).  After winning their first SEC Tournament title since Sir Charles was on the team, the Fighting Bruce Pearls have shown they can beat anyone.  They play great defense and force more turnovers than anyone else in the field.  And the SEC isn't as terrible as it usually is, featuring five teams seeded 5 or better, so the Tigers have played some good competition this year.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  7-7

Teams seeded 4 or lower who may not make it to the second weekend (last year, I correctly put Arizona, Auburn, and Xavier on this list):

1.  LSU (3-seed East).  LSU is kind of a dumpster fire right now with the whole Will Wade debacle.  It's also a young team (albeit very talented, you know, because they pay their players).  They face a sneaky talented Yale team in the First Round, and if they win that, they will face Maryland, Belmont, or Temple, all of which could beat LSU.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  7-4

2.  Michigan (2-seed West).  Michigan is the defending runner-up, and they got a pretty tough draw in the second round.  I am assuming they will get by Montana, but then it's either a very talented and experienced Nevada team or a Florida team that can hit threes and defend.  "But Michigan beat North Carolina and has a ton of wins against good teams," you say.  To that, I say, "It's March, man."

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  11-5

3.  Kansas (4-seed Midwest).  Because it's Kansas.  This is the worst seed for the Jayhawks since a 4-seed in 2003, and it was the first time in 15 years they didn't win the Big 12 regular season title.  They have made it to the Elite Eight or beyond the last three years.  They're due for an earlier exit.  Northeastern isn't a slouch, and either Auburn or New Mexico State is capable of topping the Jayhawks.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  13-7

4.  Purdue (3-seed South).  The Boilermakers have a long and storied history . . . of underachieving in March.  Purdue has been a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament 12 times since seeding began in 1979, Purdue has failed to advance to the Sweet 16 six of those times.  Last year, Purdue made it to the second weekend for the second time since 2010.  The Boilers will likely get past Old Dominion, but a Second Round date with Villanova or St. Mary's could spell trouble.  "But this Purdue team is different!," you say.  To that, I say, "That's what they said in 1984, 1987, 1990, 1995, 1996, and 2011, when Purdue was a 1-, 2-, or 3-seed and didn't make it to the second weekend."

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  8-7

5.  Gonzaga (1-seed West).  Gonzaga is one of the best teams in the country, but that doesn't always equate to success, as Virginia and Xavier found out last year.  Awaiting the Bulldogs in the Second Round will either be Syracuse or Baylor.  The Orange's 2-3 zone is known for giving teams fits in March, and a Baylor team that was riddled with injuries, but is capable of beating anyone when healthy.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  5-3

Teams seeded 12 or higher with the best chance of pulling an upset in the first round (last year, I did not have Buffalo, Marshall, or UMBC on this list):

1.  Murray State (12-seed West).  The Racers are led by future NBA lottery pick Ja Morant.  Marquette is very good, but may be without their star Markus Howard, who is nursing an injured wrist.  Even if Howard is go to go, Murray State has a chance to pull off the win.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  1-2

2.  New Mexico State (12-seed Midwest).  For the second year in a row, the Aggies are the 12-seed in the Midwest.  They are 30-4 on the year, and they haven't lost since January 3, marching to their 7th WAC title in the last 8 years.  They are a good shooting team from inside the arc, and their first round opponent is Auburn, who doesn't exactly have a history of performing well in March.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  1-2

3.  UC Irvine (13-seed South).  Two of my three kids are very high on UC Irvine.  Lollipop and Son both have the Anteaters going to the Final Four, and they both watch a lot of Big West basketball.  UC Irvine hasn't lost since January 16.  As you may recall, the last time the Anteaters came to the Big Dance in 2015, they were a 13-seed came within three points of beating Louisville in the First Round.  This year's opponent, Kansas State, is overseeded at a 4-seed and may be without Dean Wade, who is the Wildcats' second-leading scorer and leading rebounder.  Also, this game is in San Jose, which is about 20 hours closer to Irvine than Manhattan.
Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  2-1

4.  Vermont (13-seed West).  The Seminoles send teams to the foul line a lot, and the Catamounts get to the free throw line a lot, which may put FSU in trouble.  On top of that, the game is in Hartford, which is a hell of a lot closer to Burlington than Tallahassee.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  2-2

5.  Yale (14-seed East).  Miye Oni is a potential NBA first-round pick, and his backcourt mate Alex Copeland is pretty good too.  As discussed above, the Bulldogs' First Round opponent is LSU, whose regular season SEC title is a little deceiving because they weren't exactly blowing teams out -- and won an impressive (or concerning) five out of six overtime games.  Add in the uncertainty of how the Tigers will play without head coach Will Wade and how that situation will weigh on the team, and you have a situation ripe for an upset.

Record against NCAA Tournament teams:  0-2